Mountain West Discussion

[Front Ranger]

Nice soaker today. Already .42", with a lot more on the way. Looking like this will be the first 1"+ precip storm in a long time.

[epiceast]

ULL on Thursday really starting to look like it will pack a punch. Snowfall down to the bottom of Treasure valley on the latest WRF run.

[epiceast]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d3/msnow24.72.0000.gifSilly Map is showing baker colors over Wind River range.

[Black Hole]

Nice soaker today. Already .42", with a lot more on the way. Looking like this will be the first 1"+ precip storm in a long time.

How did you do?

[Black Hole]

ULL on Thursday really starting to look like it will pack a punch. Snowfall down to the bottom of Treasure valley on the latest WRF run.

This will be a wet storm for us too. ECMWF ens mean has about 1" of precip and 2" of snow for me right now. 

[Front Ranger]

How did you do?

 

.81". So not as much as I was thinking, but still a good, much-needed storm.

[Front Ranger]

Haven't had accumulating snow here since late February, but looks like that will change with next couple storm systems. More cold air and plenty of moisture appear likely with both.

[epiceast]

Looks like snow is sticking to benches at 3k' around Boise. Snow level is still dropping there. Pretty insane for late March.

[Front Ranger]

Looking like tomorrow night could be a 3-6" snowfall. With some rain tonight and tomorrow.

 

So glad we're finally out of that awful dry/warm pattern we were stuck in for about 7 weeks. Everything should really start greening up here next week.

[epiceast]

Rear-end band going a lot stronger than modeled. 850mb temps might make it interesting here if the precip can overcome the dry air. Would be nice to get that redemption after the local hill get robbed of a snowfall last night.

[epiceast]

2' in 10 hours at some wind river range snotels. Looks like the Silly maps might verify in some locations. not a very impressive storm anywhere else though

[Front Ranger]

Heavy, soaking drizzle today. Loving it!

[Front Ranger]

Tonight/tomorrow AM could be one of those relatively rare occasions when my higher elevation (5450') than surrounding areas makes a difference for snowfall. Snow level is currently around 6500' and dropping, and will probably reach 5000' by late tonight. But may start snowing here a couple hours earlier.

 

Currently 37 with drizzle.

[Black Hole]

Downslope windstorm for me tonight. So far I've gusted to 39 mph but I see a 61 mph gust not too far away. The warning is for gusts to 65-75 mph. I would guess I will hit maybe 50 mph at best as these almost never verify at least at my house. Either way its fun to see what you get. 

[Front Ranger]

Total bust here, storm ended up further south. Decent amount of rain yesterday, but only a dusting of snow last night.

[Black Hole]

I never ended up with anything higher than 41 mph, seems the peak was about 65 mph a few miles north. 

[epiceast]

Surprise trough here. Snuck up on NWS, already spring showers firing up full force, and valley snow tonight & tomorrow morning.

[Jesse]

Surprise trough here. Snuck up on NWS, already spring showers firing up full force, and valley snow tonight & tomorrow morning.

This trough has been well advertised on the models for several days.

[epiceast]

This trough has been well advertised on the models for several days.

Yes, but it wasn't supposed to be so cool & clipper like.

[Jesse]

Yes, but it wasn't supposed to be so cool & clipper like.

It's been well advertised on the models for several days.

 

Although they have trended a little colder in the home stretch.

[Black Hole]

Picked up 1/3 of an inch yesterday, dry until the weekend but models advertising a significant storm at that point. 

[epiceast]

Grass got covered by snow in the last hour. Will be getting another round in 2 or 3 hours it looks like.

[Kayla]

Getting heavy snow here this afternoon! Probably the heaviest I've seen since early February.

 

Poor timing though during peak heating so not expecting a whole lot of accumulation but it's always fun to see nonetheless! Will be interesting to see how much of this moisture we hang on to headed into this evening when we'll stand a much better chance of some decent accumulations.

[epiceast]

Round 2 was a complete miss, although its hitting the Bitterroot valley pretty hard right now. Probably done with snow this year, really doubt these showers can exist without daytime heating.

[epiceast]

Looks like Evaro got 2" with the second shower 2 local storm reports were posted about it.

[epiceast]

http://i.imgur.com/oUwEzGR.jpg

 

Mid-day late season accumulation.

[Front Ranger]

Hoping for 1-3" tonight/tomorrow AM. The lack of snow here since early February has been truly exceptional.

[Kayla]

Picked up 1-2" of snowfall overnight. Clouds are breaking now, should be a beautiful day! Currently 25º.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My friend lives in Golden, Co, looks like they picked up a few inches of snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hoping for 1-3" tonight/tomorrow AM. The lack of snow here since early February has been truly exceptional.

 

Most reports around Westminster show 4-5" it looks like. 

[Black Hole]

There were a few lake effect snow showers this morning for parts of the SLC area, but nothing at my place. 

06z GFS showed over 2" of liquid this weekend, but most models are closer to an inch. Storm looks similar to many over the winter with a strong low crashing into central california and moving eastwards towards my area. These tend to have good moisture taps with them. 

[Front Ranger]

Most reports around Westminster show 4-5" it looks like. 

 

Yep, finally an overperformer! Got 5" last night, and then another heavy band moved in this evening and dropped a couple more.

 

Here's a pic from about an hour ago at a nearby golf course.

 

[epiceast]

WRF is really consistent about bringing a big snowstorm to the Missions Saturday night - Sunday, at least run to run. Some support for that on GEM runs too. I wonder if Euro is on board too?

[Guest happ]

March was hot in Mountain West 

 

[Black Hole]

Warm today, 75.6F was my high. 

[Front Ranger]

Back to boring/dry for at least a bit now it appears.

[Black Hole]

Should see showers and thunderstorms pick up tonight and tomorrow here. Rain will switch to snow for a slushy inch or two on Sunday. After that we quickly rebound to warm weather again. 

[epiceast]

Models continue to water down the storm.

[Kayla]

Still lots of questions for the Saturday night/Sunday system for here. Euro has been most consistent showing about 2-4" of snowfall for several days now while the GFS/GEM/NAM have been all over the place. 12z GEM was the most bullish this morning showing about 8-10" of snowfall in the same period. 

 

2-4" seems like a safe forecast at this point but still a couple more runs to fine tune things. Either way, it's nice to see the pattern turning much more active after a very benign March.

[Kayla]

Looks like the NWS is onboard. They just issued a Winter Storm Watch for my area and as of right now think 6-12" for elevations at or above 5,000' (I'm at 5,350').

 

Seems pretty bullish to me but maybe the GEM is onto something...

[epiceast]

Looks like the NWS is onboard. They just issued a Winter Storm Watch for my area and as of right now think 6-12" for elevations at or above 5,000' (I'm at 5,350').

 

Seems pretty bullish to me but maybe the GEM is onto something...

 

Climo wins. The ULL always forms 100 miles south or east of having significant effects on Missoula, it can only effect locations on continental divide or east. It was nice seeing NAM/GFS/GEM agree for  half a foot here in town for about 24 hours though, and 3' in the Rattlesnake/Mission mountains. 

[epiceast]

http://atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d3/msnow24.24.0000.gifSorry Kayla. 

[Kayla]

http://atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d3/msnow24.24.0000.gifSorry Kayla. 

 

???? 

[epiceast]

???? 

The shortwave will not hit you, and this map also implies that the ULL will not be able to pull the moisture back into your valley, so you will end up with like an inch or two. If you look at the radar trends, it looks like the old solutions(favoring GNP, Missoula, Great falls and not Bozeman or Billings) were right because the returns are moving north of the blue mountains into the Columbia basin and the Palouse.

[Kayla]

The shortwave will not hit you, and this map also implies that the ULL will not be able to pull the moisture back into your valley, so you will end up with like an inch or two. If you look at the radar trends, it looks like the old solutions(favoring GNP, Missoula, Great falls and not Bozeman or Billings) were right because the returns are moving north of the blue mountains into the Columbia basin and the Palouse.

 

Wasn't aware that this was a competition. That map still shows about 3-5" for me and the WRF has performed horribly this year. The Euro has shown the most consistency with the ULL which still gives my area 3-6" which seems like a good forecast at this point. This was never looking like a major event for this area but rather a moderate spring storm.

[epiceast]

Wasn't aware that this was a competition. That map still shows about 3-5" for me and the WRF has performed horribly this year. The Euro has shown the most consistency with the ULL which still gives my area 3-6" which seems like a good forecast at this point. This was never looking like a major event for this area but rather a moderate spring storm.

It's not, but I don't think we ever get a lot of snow out of the same snowstorm(think Seattle & Portland). I was just excited about getting a lot of snow for going last day of resort skiing tomorrow. Probably will end up getting sorting in town too (trace-6"). The boundary is very sharp with this one, at least for valleys, I don't think a lot of people will see 3-6" east of the divid it will be either an inch or a foot. 

[Kayla]

It's not, but I don't think we ever get a lot of snow out of the same snowstorm(think Seattle & Portland). I was just excited about getting a lot of snow for going last day of resort skiing tomorrow. Probably will end up getting sorting in town too (trace-6"). The boundary is very sharp with this one, at least for valleys, I don't think a lot of people will see 3-6" east of the divid it will be either an inch or a foot. 

 

There is a stark difference between Bozeman and Missoula as the two cities sit in two completely different climates and are ~1,600' in elevation apart. Bozeman sits in a cold/dry continental climate whereas Missoula has a cold semi-arid climate. Bozeman is quite unique in that it receives plentiful moisture year-around for a continental climate and averages 86" snowfall to Missoula's 45" annually.

 

And an inch to a foot?? That's quite the range!  

[epiceast]

There is a stark difference between Bozeman and Missoula as the two cities sit in two completely different climates and are ~1,600' in elevation apart. Bozeman sits in a cold/dry continental climate whereas Missoula has a cold semi-arid climate. Bozeman is quite unique in that it receives plentiful moisture year-around for a continental climate and averages 86" snowfall to Missoula's 45" annually.

 

And an inch to a foot?? That's quite the range!  

Yes I know that my climate doesn't deliver as much snow as most cities in Montana. Only plains & cities further south in Bitterroot valley get less. My point was that you would need the low to take a very unusual track to give a significant snowstorm to both Bozeman & Missoula. And yeah, look at those gradients on the silly map.

[epiceast]

Starting to get worried this storm will go north of everyone and hit US/CA border and MT-hiline. It's certainly not encouraging to see that band go north of Spokane and not pivot.

[ShawniganLake]

Starting to get worried this storm will go north of everyone and hit US/CA border and MT-hiline. It's certainly not encouraging to see that band go north of Spokane and not pivot.

NWS is forecasting 1/2 -1" for Missoula. Were you expecting them to bust badly?