Mountain West Discussion

[Black Hole]

Super heavy rain has fallen here in the past hour. Quite a bit of lightning and thunder early this morning as well. I think that heaviest rain from this storm is still expected to come in this evening and tonight, correct Black Hole? What is the chance of severe thunderstorms today for the Wasatch Front?

I am up to .70" on the day and its raining again now. We had a bow echo come through at 4:30 with crazy lightning too.

 

The radar should fill in and strengthen over the next few hours and it appears we still have a lot of rain to go. I think severe thunderstorms are unlikely but not impossible. Mostly just rain and thunder from here on out.

[Black Hole]

At .98" now and the heavier stuff is getting organized to the west.

[Black Hole]

I am at 1.23" on the day with a break before a few more light showers move in.

 

This is the wettest day since I moved to SLC last summer. (~13 months ago)

[Dan the Weatherman]

I am at 1.23" on the day with a break before a few more light showers move in.

 

This is the wettest day since I moved to SLC last summer. (~13 months ago)

What is your average yearly rainfall for your area (including liquid equivalent for snowfall)?

[Black Hole]

What is your average yearly rainfall for your area (including liquid equivalent for snowfall)?

September averages 1.21" and for the year 16.10" at the airport. So basically we got the average rainfall for the whole month today!

 

I am at 2.18" for the month now with probably another tenth or two in the coming days. Also I have 18.27" on the year. I know I have been wetter than the airport has though.

[Dan the Weatherman]

September averages 1.21" and for the year 16.10" at the airport. So basically we got the average rainfall for the whole month today!

 

I am at 2.18" for the month now with probably another tenth or two in the coming days. Also I have 18.27" on the year. I know I have been wetter than the airport has though.

Your climate is actually wetter than I expected it to be, as I have thought for some reason that the greater Salt Lake City area was more desert-like similar to Las Vegas. It is actually more of a semiarid climate as is much of coastal central and southern California but the similarities end there. I have never visited the area before, so I really don't know much about the area in general.

[Black Hole]

Your climate is actually wetter than I expected it to be, as I have thought for some reason that the greater Salt Lake City area was more desert-like similar to Las Vegas. It is actually more of a semiarid climate as is much of coastal central and southern California but the similarities end there. I have never visited the area before, so I really don't know much about the area in general.

 

Areas along the Wasatch mountains are semi arid but you don't have to go far west to get into some real desert! The Salt Flats are completely barren and it hardly rains at all out there.

[Black Hole]

We had another strong storm with lightning every second, heavy rain, and some small hail. I got some good footage to upload later. My total for the last couple days is up to 1.62".

[weatherfan]

We had another strong storm with lightning every second, heavy rain, and some small hail. I got some good footage to upload later. My total for the last couple days is up to 1.62".

Me too. Vivid, frequent lightning with gusty winds. Not much rain with it though. That was around 8pm last night. Just had another similar thunderstorm (about 45 minutes ago) except there was plenty of rain with it instead of frequent lightning.

[Coco-nut]

We had some decent rains here in Flagstaff Friday night & Saturday, not quite as much as I was originally hoping for, but then again the roofers decided to take the day off Friday leaving us with only a partially covered roof. And now a slightly soggy living room.

[Black Hole]

Me too. Vivid, frequent lightning with gusty winds. Not much rain with it though. That was around 8pm last night. Just had another similar thunderstorm (about 45 minutes ago) except there was plenty of rain with it instead of frequent lightning.

We had a decent storm at the U of U this afternoon with small hail and lightning. A few more showers moving through this evening too. Looks like one last hurrah tomorrow night with some lake effect showers possible.

 

We had some decent rains here in Flagstaff Friday night & Saturday, not quite as much as I was originally hoping for, but then again the roofers decided to take the day off Friday leaving us with only a partially covered roof. And now a slightly soggy living room.

Sorry about your roof!

[Dan the Weatherman]

We had some decent rains here in Flagstaff Friday night & Saturday, not quite as much as I was originally hoping for, but then again the roofers decided to take the day off Friday leaving us with only a partially covered roof. And now a slightly soggy living room.

Hopefully it didn't do a lot of damage to your furniture or any electronic devices. In this case, it was a good thing that the rains weren't heavier or as significant this time around.

[Black Hole]

So its turns out my weather station was keeping track of the rain on the water year, not the calendar year. So I ended up with 18.93" for my water year, not bad!

 

.09" today for the new water year.

[Black Hole]

All is quiet for now.

[Coco-nut]

Simon has delivered a soft evening rain to Flagstaff, but that is it so far.

[Black Hole]

Simon has delivered a soft evening rain to Flagstaff, but that is it so far.

I saw it was raining hard to your south earlier. Nothing but cirrus up this way.

[Black Hole]

Quite chilly this morning, 36.6F! Coldest low of the fall so far.

[Black Hole]

Has this been an unusually warm fall so far in Utah?

Yep, the lows especially. Normal low this time of year is like 41 or 42 I think so its kind of sad that is the best we have done.

[Black Hole]

All quiet for a few more days with a chance of showers next week.

[Black Hole]

How are the fall colors down there?

Awesome! I went up to the mountains today to enjoy them.

[weatherfan]

All quiet for a few more days with a chance of showers next week.

The GFS is currently showing flurries on Halloween the Wasatch Front. It is at least the second time it has showed this potential solution over the past few days. What is the ECMWF currently showing for the Wasatch Front for late next week?

[Black Hole]

The GFS is currently showing flurries on Halloween the Wasatch Front. It is at least the second time it has showed this potential solution over the past few days. What is the ECMWF currently showing for the Wasatch Front for late next week?

00z GFS still showing that feature. For now we should just keep watching. Plenty of ensemble spread and differences among the models. Differing solutions each run with ecmwf and Canadian. Probably will have a better idea in a few days. 12z ecmwf wasn't too exciting.

[Black Hole]

79 yesterday, about 60 today, might struggle to get above the low 50s tomorrow.

[weatherfan]

79 yesterday, about 60 today, might struggle to get above the low 50s tomorrow.

Yeah, there was a chill to the air today and it will be chilly tomorrow with the high temp being near 50, which means it will be mostly in the 40s tomorrow. Then, the first freezing temps in several months for the Wasatch Front. Black Hole, what do you think about the chance of snow next weekend for the Salt Lake City area? Are models, other than the GFS, showing the chance right now? Halloween is certainly not going to be snow like I briefly thought on October 21. To me, near 70 and mostly sunny sounds quite nice.

[Black Hole]

Yeah, there was a chill to the air today and it will be chilly tomorrow with the high temp being near 50, which means it will be mostly in the 40s tomorrow. Then, the first freezing temps in several months for the Wasatch Front. Black Hole, what do you think about the chance of snow next weekend for the Salt Lake City area? Are models, other than the GFS, showing the chance right now? Halloween is certainly not going to be snow like I briefly thought on October 21. To me, near 70 and mostly sunny sounds quite nice.

52 is what I ended up at. Saw some rain, graupel, and maybe a few snowflakes this morning.

 

As for next weekend I feel really good about it right now. Good model agreement for more than cold enough air. I think that lake effect snow (LES) will be a real possibility. Also, upper level cold pool goes right overhead which should aid in deeper lake convection/scattered showers Sunday.

[Black Hole]

Here are all the things to look for with lake effect. You want the difference between the lake and 700mb to be at least 16C, preferably 20-25C. This event looks to be around 23-25C.

 

You want a high 700-850mb RH, preferably 70+ %. This one is modeled to be around 80%.

 

You want unidirectional flow (little shear). That looks to be the case up through 500mb or higher for about 12 hours.

 

You want your flow speed to be 10-15 kts. That checks out.

 

You want steep lapse rates in the 700-500mb layer (no capping inversion -- which is only a problem with less direct hits) That will not be a problem here with the 500mb cold pool going right overhead. This mornings minor lake effect happened with -17C or so at 500mb, current progs are -25 to -29C.

 

There are some other minor things you can look at but these are the big ones. Anyway looks good on all accounts so no problems for now.

[Jesse]

Here are all the things to look for with lake effect. You want the difference between the lake and 700mb to be at least 16C, preferably 20-25C. This event looks to be around 23-25C.

 

You want a high 700-850mb RH, preferably 70+ %. This one is modeled to be around 80%.

 

You want unidirectional flow (little shear). That looks to be the case up through 500mb or higher for about 12 hours.

 

You want your flow speed to be 10-15 kts. That checks out.

 

You want steep lapse rates in the 700-500mb layer (no capping inversion -- which is only a problem with less direct hits) That will not be a problem here with the 500mb cold pool going right overhead. This mornings minor lake effect happened with -17C or so at 500mb, current progs are -25 to -29C.

 

There are some other minor things you can look at but these are the big ones. Anyway looks good on all accounts so no problems for now.

Your knowledge has become very impressive Derek. We've all watched you get there.

[Black Hole]

Your knowledge has become very impressive Derek. We've all watched you get there.

Thanks I appreciate it! Just a few months away from having the degree finally so I am glad I at least sound smart haha

[Black Hole]

Not a lot of big changes in forecast thought tonight. Main thing seems to be a little slower timing. Cold front pushes through Saturday afternoon it looks like. Heavier rain doesn't arrive till late. So probably no snow till Sunday. Only LE areas will see snow in the lower elevations I think. Mountains should get a good dump with the front.

 

Some models showing a negative tilt in the trough Saturday so small chance of some thunder with that.

[Coco-nut]

I am hoping the possibility for a light snow here at 7000' for Saturday night/Sunday morning holds.

[Black Hole]

High wind warning up for tomorrow, gusts to 60 mph or so. Looks like a good one. Could see thunderstorms along the line too, main limiting factor is the lack of deep moisture with it. Even so, some rain is likely.

 

A secondary push of colder air Sunday switches flow to NW and brings in good low level moisture. Watching for lake effect Sunday night with cold temperatures and ample moisture. Main limiting factor appears to be a bit of warmer air aloft...this would cap the lake convection and keep it from becoming significant most likely.

[Black Hole]

Looking good for some lake effect snow tonight. Everything looks to be in place. Main concern is transitory nature of it as flow shifts from WNW to N. Probably a couple hour window for whatever we may see. I don't think it will be big but probably some slushy accumulations will be possible, Tr-1" on the grass.

[Black Hole]

A few flakes in the area this morning, but most of it was just west of down. 2" on the valley floor or so over that way. Oquirrh mountains got 5-10" as the heaviest lake effect was there.

 

29F right now, probably 24-25F for a low tonight.

[Black Hole]

Lucky.

Don't worry the weather will suck for the next 2 weeks it looks like. Did hit 26 this morning, and could make it down to around 32-34 tonight.

[Black Hole]

So all of my friends that I got to join this place, you should start posting!

 

In other news, might see some continental air seep over the Rockies on Monday. If it happens, we will probably see some lows in the low to mid 20s.

[weatherfan]

Don't worry the weather will suck for the next 2 weeks it looks like. Did hit 26 this morning, and could make it down to around 32-34 tonight.

Yes, no snow or rain for the next seven days or longer in the Salt Lake City area plus relatively warm high temps are expected this week and currently for next week. Those are abnormal for this time of the year, especially the barely any precip thing. Two main things coming for here the next week is a little bit of cooler air at times and some strong gusty winds at times with a dry cold front or two. The inversion is likely going to strengthen over the next couple weeks or until a storm with precip and/or enough wind and cold air comes through.

[weatherfan]

So all of my friends that I got to join this place, you should start posting!

 

In other news, might see some continental air seep over the Rockies on Monday. If it happens, we will probably see some lows in the low to mid 20s.

That is likely going to be the biggest weather change in the Rocky Mountain areas over the next week or longer. Some precip would be nice as well.

[Black Hole]

That is likely going to be the biggest weather change in the Rocky Mountain areas over the next week or longer. Some precip would be nice as well.

I am watching this too. Generally models are too quick to take the cold air over the Rockies. As it is now we have NW flow aloft and so I find it unlikely the arctic air can make it. If the shortwave can trend further west we might stand a chance. Interesting to note some moisture getting sucked in from the west next week along with the cooler air that is trying to punch in. ECMWF showed a little snow with it even. We will see.

[Black Hole]

00z ECMWF blasts us with arctic air on day 9. Pretty far out but fun to see it starting to show up.

[halofromajo]

Canadian and GFS are showing some rain possible at hour 172 with what appears to be some lee cyclogenesis after the trough passes the front range.