Mountain West Discussion

[Black Hole]

We only ended up with a trace this morning but I guess its nice to have seen a few flakes each of the last few days. One more chance tomorrow morning although I am not that excited for it. Maybe a quick dusting.

 

After that, nothing coming up for a few days.

[Black Hole]

It might be a different story a week from now.

What do you see happening? I think we may get a good deal of rain next Mon-Tue but cold air looks to be sparse with it for me until moisture is long gone...and even then the cold air looks marginal. Hopefully things trend cooler.

[Black Hole]

Models seem to be trending cooler for Sunday with some now showing the arctic boundary shifting into northern Utah. GFS is furthest north with just a few sprinkles. Canadian is borderline. But the Parallel GFS and ECMWF both show snow with it moving further south and then stalling before moving back north as a warm front. ECMWF is especially interesting as the arctic boundary stalls just to the south with snow most of Sunday. Ensembles are now trending better with time too. Starting to look like some potential excitement again. 

[aweech]

The 18Z GFS is still as warm and dry as previous runs, but as the NAM starts to come in range it is looking as exciting as the ECMWF. Hopefully the GFS will continue to trend towards their solution.

[Black Hole]

Welcome to the forums! Hope to see some posts from New Hampshire soon!

He is another one of my school mates. It's nice to see people getting on

[Black Hole]

The 18Z GFS is still as warm and dry as previous runs, but as the NAM starts to come in range it is looking as exciting as the ECMWF. Hopefully the GFS will continue to trend towards their solution.

I have a feeling the GFS will cave on this one but no sign of that yet. I sort of get the feeling this one may not be resolved for another 1-2 days.

[Black Hole]

ECMWF looking even better with widespread 1-3" and colder temps as the arctic front is a little deeper this time. I like where this is going.

[Black Hole]

Mega torch the last few days. In the last 4 days I have had 3 highs above 60 including 65 yesterday and at least 64 today. Average high is about 45 by now and we haven't dipped below 47 for 76 hours with at least 12 more to go.

 

Even so still looks like a pretty sharp little boundary tonight with a chance of a dusting of snow tomorrow afternoon. More rain coming up Tuesday still but no sign of any real snow coming.

[Black Hole]

The torch continues! Still running warm, sunny, and dry. Looks like some showers on Friday at least. Maybe a little snow Saturday but its not looking good.

[weatherfan]

Yes, it is quite warm for this time of the year here in the Salt Lake City area and has been for two or more weeks now. Abnormal for this time of the year. It looks like back to near normal temps here in the Salt Lake City area this weekend with some cold rain and perhaps a rain/snow mix.

[Black Hole]

Yes, it is quite warm for this time of the year here in the Salt Lake City area and has been for two or more weeks now. Abnormal for this time of the year. It looks like back to near normal temps here in the Salt Lake City area this weekend with some cold rain and perhaps a rain/snow mix.

Assuming we are 50+ each day through Friday that will tie the record in SLC for such days in a row in December at 10. The last time that happened was 1955. Additionally that would make it 12/13 days above 50.

[halofromajo]

Yes, it is quite warm for this time of the year here in the Salt Lake City area and has been for two or more weeks now. Abnormal for this time of the year. It looks like back to near normal temps here in the Salt Lake City area this weekend with some cold rain and perhaps a rain/snow mix.

More importantly for us skier type people, snow to the Bird and Alta!  Thank goodness!  That 'Snow' up there is really killing my vibe and not to my mention my legs.  Today I took a wrong turn and found myself, a novice boarder, on a diamond at the bird that was all ice.  lost traction as one point and slide 20 feet down the side of the hill before my board caught something.  Scary stuff man.  Bring that (wet) pow pow!

[Dan the Weatherman]

The torch continues! Still running warm, sunny, and dry. Looks like some showers on Friday at least. Maybe a little snow Saturday but its not looking good.

Did your area get any good rains last week from the storm that gave CA a good soaking statewide? Due to the subtropical nature of the air mass, mostly rain fell even in the higher elevations in our local mountains, although the Sierras received some very high elevation snow.

[halofromajo]

Did your area get any good rains last week from the storm that gave CA a good soaking statewide? Due to the subtropical nature of the air mass, mostly rain fell even in the higher elevations in our local mountains, although the Sierras received some very high elevation snow.

.2" in most place around the SLC valley on thurs?  

[Black Hole]

.2" in most place around the SLC valley on thurs?  

There was .05" at KSLC, .06" at my house. So in that sense we didn't get anything worthwhile. Most models continue to show a little something this weekend but overall unexciting. The ECMWF last night was a crazy outlier with 10" of snow lol

[Dan the Weatherman]

There was .05" at KSLC, .06" at my house. So in that sense we didn't get anything worthwhile. Most models continue to show a little something this weekend but overall unexciting. The ECMWF last night was a crazy outlier with 10" of snow lol

I guess the brunt of the storm missed your general area or that the moisture was wrung out before it arrived. Hopefully your area receives more substantial precip from the next couple of systems forecast later this week and early next week.

[Coco-nut]

Sorry not to have posted in so long, but life has been busy. We have been having some amazing fog here for the past week ever since the rains of the middle of last week.  Today the fog lasted until noon, and in some areas all day. And then right at sunset it rolled back into town.  For an area that maybe gets fog once every couple of years it is nice to see it for a whole week.

[halofromajo]

Oh please for the love of utah powder let the nam verify.

 

http://weather.utah.edu/text/COTTONWOODS.txt

HOURS 33 - 84
FHR VALID TIME   SNOW LEVEL  SNOW RATIO/H2O  MT BALDY T/RH    MT BALDY WIND    QPF / 3H SNOW / ACCUM QPF / ACCUM SNOW
 33  THU  8 PM     8000 FT     6:1 /  17%    34 F /  24 %   SW  30 G  54 MPH     0.00"  /  0.0"  / 0.00"  /  0.0"
 36  THU 11 PM     8200 FT     6:1 /  17%    35 F /  18 %   SSW 30 G  53 MPH     0.00"  /  0.0"  / 0.00"  /  0.0"
 39  FRI  2 AM     8000 FT     7:1 /  14%    33 F /  19 %   SSW 37 G  69 MPH     0.00"  /  0.0"  / 0.00"  /  0.0"
 42  FRI  5 AM     7600 FT     6:1 /  17%    32 F /  20 %   SSW 35 G  65 MPH     0.00"  /  0.0"  / 0.00"  /  0.0"
 45  FRI  8 AM     7100 FT     6:1 /  17%    30 F /  22 %   SSW 30 G  54 MPH     0.00"  /  0.0"  / 0.00"  /  0.0"
 48  FRI 11 AM     7100 FT     6:1 /  17%    29 F /  29 %   SSW 39 G  71 MPH     0.00"  /  0.0"  / 0.00"  /  0.0"
 51  FRI  2 PM     7200 FT     6:1 /  17%    28 F /  33 %   SSW 46 G  83 MPH     0.00"  /  0.0"  / 0.00"  /  0.0"
 54  FRI  5 PM     7900 FT     8:1 /  12%    22 F /  82 %   SSW 41 G  75 MPH     0.00"  /  0.0"  / 0.00"  /  0.0"
 57  FRI  8 PM     7700 FT     8:1 /  12%    22 F /  93 %   S   27 G  47 MPH     0.02"  /  0.2"  / 0.02"  /  0.2"
 60  FRI 11 PM     6800 FT     8:1 /  12%    21 F /  95 %   SSW 35 G  60 MPH     0.14"  /  1.1"  / 0.16"  /  1.3"
 63  SAT  2 AM     6200 FT    11:1 /   9%    18 F /  84 %   SSW 24 G  43 MPH     0.13"  /  1.3"  / 0.29"  /  2.6"
 66  SAT  5 AM     5700 FT    15:1 /   7%    15 F /  92 %   SW  15 G  27 MPH     0.05"  /  0.7"  / 0.34"  /  3.3"
 69  SAT  8 AM     5500 FT    15:1 /   7%    14 F /  90 %   SW  12 G  21 MPH     0.02"  /  0.3"  / 0.36"  /  3.6"
 72  SAT 11 AM        0 FT    15:1 /   7%    12 F /  98 %   WNW 14 G  20 MPH     0.07"  /  1.1"  / 0.43"  /  4.7"
 75  SAT  2 PM     5200 FT    20:1 /   5%    11 F /  93 %   WNW 21 G  29 MPH     0.08"  /  1.5"  / 0.51"  /  6.2"
 78  SAT  5 PM     5300 FT    21:1 /   5%    11 F /  94 %   NW  23 G  33 MPH     0.01"  /  0.2"  / 0.52"  /  6.4"
 81  SAT  8 PM        0 FT    21:1 /   5%    10 F /  96 %   NW  20 G  27 MPH     0.01"  /  0.3"  / 0.53"  /  6.7"
 84  SAT 11 PM        0 FT    22:1 /   5%    10 F /  75 %   NW  21 G  28 MPH     0.00"  /  0.1"  / 0.53"  /  6.8"

5% powder for the win.  

[Black Hole]

Tomorrow we are going to be cooking here if things fully mix out. 700mb temps around +3C would support a high near 68. It could happen with gusty south winds, we will see.

 

Splitty system puts highs near 40-45 over the weekend with a chance of showers or a few flurries. Several weak systems pass by next week so perhaps we can finally get an inch of snow?

[Front Ranger]

Finally looks like a return of some interesting weather here next week. Chance of a decent storm Sun/Mon, but a lot still up in the air. Then some more seasonable weather and maybe some more chances of snow.

[Coco-nut]

More Dense fog this morning. It cleared up by noon and was clear for about 2 hours and then between 2:30 and 3:00 the fog rolled right back in though this time it was denser on the north end of town towards the mountains.

 

We're hoping for some good precip Friday night into the weekend. Though the official forecast has gone back and forth between snow and starting as rain and converting to snow at some point. It could be a mess.

[Black Hole]

More Dense fog this morning. It cleared up by noon and was clear for about 2 hours and then between 2:30 and 3:00 the fog rolled right back in though this time it was denser on the north end of town towards the mountains.

 

We're hoping for some good precip Friday night into the weekend. Though the official forecast has gone back and forth between snow and starting as rain and converting to snow at some point. It could be a mess.

I can take a look. Which town and elevation do you have again?

[Black Hole]

Kind of a pleasant surprise...but we have lake effect snow tonight! Maybe we can finally get an inch or two of snow. All signs point to just that so here is to hoping. I'll get picks tomorrow morning if its worth it

[Front Ranger]

Finally, snow again here! My area has been kinda screwed today, but I do have about 1" with snow picking up again.

[halofromajo]

Well that lake effect last night  dropped about 10" in Little Cottonwood.  

[Black Hole]

Well that lake effect last night  dropped about 10" in Little Cottonwood.  

We ended up with 1" in WVC, it looked like the U. was similar.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Glad to hear you all finally got some snow in your region! Hopefully there is more to come soon.

[Black Hole]

Some indication of a big change around Christmas with snow and bitter cold. Too early to say but who can complain when the ECMWF spits out a -20C at 700mb

[Black Hole]

The way it happens and the depth are all over the place but every model is producing at least some snow on Christmas in SLC with cooler air to follow. Looking good! 12z ECMWF was a bit disappointing but we have plenty of time.

[Black Hole]

Still looks like snow is likely on Christmas although models seem to be trending away from the really good stuff. My guess is 2-4" right now in SLC but that may be too optimistic in the end.

[Black Hole]

All 00z models trending back a little better again, not a lot with the cold but especially with snow. Models tonight showing more of a 8-12" storm which I doubt but perhaps it will end up better than I've been saying. Still down to -15C at 700mb or so. Another blast possible with snow on the 28-29th.

[Black Hole]

Winter storm watch posted for 4-8" of snow. I am still predicting 3-6" but either way a good storm coming.

[Front Ranger]

Got a surprise 1" of snow here yesterday. Looks like tomorrow will warm up enough to melt it, but now also looks like a decent snowfall Christmas night is possible, with perhaps 2-4".

[Black Hole]

Mountains got whacked with the atmospheric river event the other day. I had about .80" of water but mountains had up to 4" which translated to a lot of snow.

[Black Hole]

Still looking at 3-6" of snow on Christmas with strong winds and cold temps. I think we stay below freezing Friday and maybe Saturday. Sunday will only see a brief warm up ahead of the next blast with 1-3" of additional snow. Snow ratios could be high with the second blast.

 

Quite a bit of disagreement at times with how cold we get but some of tonight's models are unreal. The GFS has -25C at 700mb, the coldest I have seen in my previous 5 years here is about -23C. And the parallel GFS is colder than that even!

[Front Ranger]

Still looking at 3-6" of snow on Christmas with strong winds and cold temps. I think we stay below freezing Friday and maybe Saturday. Sunday will only see a brief warm up ahead of the next blast with 1-3" of additional snow. Snow ratios could be high with the second blast.

 

Quite a bit of disagreement at times with how cold we get but some of tonight's models are unreal. The GFS has -25C at 700mb, the coldest I have seen in my previous 5 years here is about -23C. And the parallel GFS is colder than that even!

 

Nice. It's looking more likely that snow will arrive Christmas afternoon here, with temps turning sharply colder in the afternoon.

[Front Ranger]

Winter Storm Watch here now for 6-8", with more in the foothills. First of the winter.

 

Meanwhile, the 12z Euro continues to advertise a brutally cold air mass invading the region next week.

 

 

[Black Hole]

Winter Storm Watch here now for 6-8", with more in the foothills. First of the winter.

 

Meanwhile, the 12z Euro continues to advertise a brutally cold air mass invading the region next week.

 

12zeuro.png

Yeah, we have a warning for 3-6". That blast next week could really mean business. 700mb temps on my side of the mountain will fall to the mid -20s, and with heavy snowcover on the ground I think some sub-zero readings are possible. You always do better though, how cold will you be?

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, we have a warning for 3-6". That blast next week could really mean business. 700mb temps on my side of the mountain will fall to the mid -20s, and with heavy snowcover on the ground I think some sub-zero readings are possible. You always do better though, how cold will you be?

 

If the 12z Euro verified, Tue/Wed might struggle to get above 0. I could easily see a -2/-18 day in there for Denver. The coldest air is aimed right at us.

[Black Hole]

Daytime high of 31 with 2.5" of snow. Not bad! Arctic front with snow on Sun-Mon still on tap.