Mountain West Discussion

[Front Ranger]

Yikes.  At what point does it quit being fun...

 

Right about there for me, ha ha. But models have moderated a bit, I'm thinking the coldest day now will probably have highs in the 0 to 5 range, lows -10 to -15.

 

We seem to be getting more and more day with lows below 0. The first few years I was here, we'd have maybe 1-2 days a year that would pull it off. Now it seems like every winter we have 5-6 or more days that fall below 0, and several with highs only in the single digits.

[Front Ranger]

Ended up with 7" from the storm, most of which fell by midnight last night.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Black Hole]

Low of 13 this morning is my coldest of the season. How did you do in Colorado? Nice snow pics!

 

A winter storm watch for 3-5" Sun-Mon here but I don't buy it at all. I think T-2".

[Front Ranger]

Low of 13 this morning is my coldest of the season. How did you do in Colorado? Nice snow pics!

 

A winter storm watch for 3-5" Sun-Mon here but I don't buy it at all. I think T-2".

 

Got down to 5 here last night. Tomorrow should get above freezing (barely), and then snow returns Monday here as well...thinking 2-4" at this point.

[Black Hole]

Got down to 5 here last night. Tomorrow should get above freezing (barely), and then snow returns Monday here as well...thinking 2-4" at this point.

Nice, pretty chilly. We should have some lows 0 to 5F on Mon-Wed as the arctic air pushes in.

[Front Ranger]

Nice, pretty chilly. We should have some lows 0 to 5F on Mon-Wed as the arctic air pushes in.

 

I think you will see some sub-zero lows around the area. Your NWS may be underestimating this air mass.

 

Because of cloud cover, I think Tuesday will be around 2/-10 here. Would be easily colder low with clear skies.

[Front Ranger]

DEN could very well pull off a sub-zero day on Tuesday. If they do, it will be their third sub-zero day since 2011...they saw none from 1997-2010.

[Black Hole]

Just .75" of snow yesterday but got another inch overnight and another 1/2" this afternoon with more coming. Not a big storm but a lot of continuous light snow. Arctic air pours in tonight.

[Front Ranger]

About 2" so far here today with light snow continuing and expected to through tomorrow around noon.

 

It will be interesting to see how cold we end up tomorrow. This will be the region's second record-shattering cold wave in two months, and third since February 2014.

 

Records for tomorrow, high/low.

 

Denver: 11/-8. NWS going with 0/-17

Boulder: 16/-11. NWS going with -2/-11

Fort Collins: 2/-14. NWS going with 1/-17

Greeley: 12/-13. NWS going with 0/-18

Cheyenne: 0/-21. NWS going with -3/-21

Colorado Springs: 9/-10. NWS going with 6/-13.

 

Of course, some of these lows will actually occur on the 31st instead of the 30th. A lot will depend on how quickly we clear out tomorrow night.

[Front Ranger]

DEN bottomed out at -19 last night, also the same temp they hit in Feb 2014. That's the coldest DEN has been since Dec 1990. It's been quite the streak of Arctic outbreaks around here since 2008...I have to leave on a short trip today, but maybe I'll do a write up when I get back. 

 

2014 has been the biggest standout year, with top-tier outbreaks in February, November, and now December.

[Black Hole]

Yesterday was 21/2 at KSLC and today looks like it will be 18/1. With calm winds tonight perhaps we can go below zero. We have had a lot of arctic intrusions in here but there haven't been any record lows in Dec since 1991 and in January since 1979. Its high time for something to deliver.

[BLI snowman]

DEN bottomed out at -19 last night, also the same temp they hit in Feb 2014. That's the coldest DEN has been since Dec 1990. It's been quite the streak of Arctic outbreaks around here since 2008...I have to leave on a short trip today, but maybe I'll do a write up when I get back. 

 

2014 has been the biggest standout year, with top-tier outbreaks in February, November, and now December.

 

Isn't that airport at a different location than in 1990 though? I assume it's a better spot for cooling now than it was back then.

[Front Ranger]

Isn't that airport at a different location than in 1990 though? I assume it's a better spot for cooling now than it was back then.

Yes, the airport moved in 1996. Regardless, it didn't get that cold in that location from 1996 to 2013. Twice in 2014.

 

There were a lot of reports of lows between -15 to -20 this morning around the Front Range, so it's not like the airport was an outlier in this case.

 

And the records set throughout the region with the recent string of Arctic outbreaks extends well beyond Denver.

[BLI snowman]

Yes, the airport moved in 1996. Regardless, it didn't get that cold in that location from 1996 to 2013. Twice in 2014.

 

There were a lot of reports of lows between -15 to -20 this morning around the Front Range, so it's not like the airport was an outlier in this case.

 

And the records set throughout the region with the recent string of Arctic outbreaks extends well beyond Denver.

 

Sure but just as with the snowfall numbers, you really have to separate the pre-1995 numbers for Denver. Just can't compare it too directly 

[Front Ranger]

Sure but just as with the snowfall numbers, you really have to separate the pre-1995 numbers for Denver. Just can't compare it too directly

But like I said, you can compare directly back to 1996 anyway. Coldest this station has been since it's existed, almost 20 years. Twice this year.

 

Snowfall is more variable, anyway. All I know is DEN hasn't represented metro area snowfall well in recent years. But there is regional support for the impressive temps.

[BLI snowman]

But like I said, you can compare directly back to 1996 anyway. Coldest this station has been since it's existed, almost 20 years. Twice this year.

 

Snowfall is more variable, anyway. All I know is DEN hasn't represented metro area snowfall well in recent years. But there is regional support for the impressive temps.

 

December 1990 was the last real Front Range monster. February 2011 was close, but CO was a bit too far north to get the explosion with it (the 8 and -17 at Boulder is just okay by historic standards).

 

Pulling for you guys to break the slump soon 

[Front Ranger]

December 1990 was the last real Front Range monster. February 2011 was close, but CO was a bit too far north to get the explosion with it (the 8 and -17 at Boulder is just okay by historic standards).

 

Pulling for you guys to break the slump soon 

 

Dec 1990 produced the all-time record low temp at Boulder, and tied it for DEN. So yeah, nothing has measured up to arguably the greatest Front Range cold wave of the airport era, but we certainly have had top-tier cold waves in recent years. Feb 2011 was not the most impressive, in my opinion.

[BLI snowman]

Dec 1990 produced the all-time record low temp at Boulder, and tied it for DEN. So yeah, nothing has measured up to arguably the greatest Front Range cold wave of the airport era, but we certainly have had top-tier cold waves in recent years. Feb 2011 was not the most impressive, in my opinion.

 

Boulder's actually had two colder events than that. -28 in February 1936 and -33 in January 1930. February 1989 also hit -24.

[Front Ranger]

Boulder's actually had two colder events than that. -28 in February 1936 and -33 in January 1930. February 1989 also hit -24.

 

Sorry, meant for December.

 

Regardless, the fact that DEN hit -19 twice in 2014 with two separate air masses is pretty impressive, considering it's colder than that station at that current location had ever been in the almost 20 years of its existence.

[halofromajo]

Yesterday was 21/2 at KSLC and today looks like it will be 18/1. With calm winds tonight perhaps we can go below zero. We have had a lot of arctic intrusions in here but there haven't been any record lows in Dec since 1991 and in January since 1979. Its high time for something to deliver.

We will have to see how much snow melts in the next 3 or 4 days, but maybe we might see a record high on the 6th.  Current GFS max is 9C at 850 and the record temp for that day is 55 (1948)

[Black Hole]

We will have to see how much snow melts in the next 3 or 4 days, but maybe we might see a record high on the 6th.  Current GFS max is 9C at 850 and the record temp for that day is 55 (1948)

I have serious doubts. We will see some mixing this weekend but even if we fully mixed out that would only happen from cold air aloft which would mean a new source of surface cold air. Also, no south winds. So I'd say the chance of that is pretty low.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty classic Chinook event today. Started with temps in the single digits this morning, but with strong downsloping winds, they shot up to the mid 50s by noon. 

 

Broomfield, the nearest airport to where I live (about 5 mi), recorded a gust to 67 mph this past hour. Reports of gusts to 80 along the foothills.

[halofromajo]

I have serious doubts. We will see some mixing this weekend but even if we fully mixed out that would only happen from cold air aloft which would mean a new source of surface cold air. Also, no south winds. So I'd say the chance of that is pretty low.

Well we did fairly well today.  47 at KSLC and 48 at U42, which is what i was thinking a couple of days ago.  My car said 54 at one point while I was driving through Sandy.  I've been looking at forecast for the past 3 days asking myself if people are crazy, 43 or 42 as a high for today in SLC?  I guess people were just not looking at snow melting as a factor?

[Black Hole]

Well we did fairly well today.  47 at KSLC and 48 at U42, which is what i was thinking a couple of days ago.  My car said 54 at one point while I was driving through Sandy.  I've been looking at forecast for the past 3 days asking myself if people are crazy, 43 or 42 as a high for today in SLC?  I guess people were just not looking at snow melting as a factor?

Yes, more melted snow than I thought. Today should be the peak though, probably cooling some tomorrow.

[Front Ranger]

Yes, more melted snow than I thought. Today should be the peak though, probably cooling some tomorrow.

 

Lost 6" in about 24 hours here. Just piles left now. Darn Chinooks.

[halofromajo]

Yes, more melted snow than I thought. Today should be the peak though, probably cooling some tomorrow.

I'm going to be real, I don't see it.  I know we will get W flow tomorrow and that should in theory keep us cooler, but being under this high, temps will again be in the 40s tomorrow with even more snow melting and a lowering albedo throughout the region.  At best we should get some WAA aloft, but really this is neutral.  My line of thinking is more optimistic.  I see the same throughout the region tomorrow with maybe a 1 or 2 degree increase due to even more melting snow.  Of course the thing that might kill my line of thinking is overnight temps dropping due to no cloud cover.  We will see.

[Black Hole]

I'm going to be real, I don't see it.  I know we will get W flow tomorrow and that should in theory keep us cooler, but being under this high, temps will again be in the 40s tomorrow with even more snow melting and a lowering albedo throughout the region.  At best we should get some WAA aloft, but really this is neutral.  My line of thinking is more optimistic.  I see the same throughout the region tomorrow with maybe a 1 or 2 degree increase due to even more melting snow.  Of course the thing that might kill my line of thinking is overnight temps dropping due to no cloud cover.  We will see.

Much better radiational cooling tonight will allow the boundary layer to cool more than in previous nights. It doesn't really matter how warm it is aloft as there will be little to no mixing with the high overhead. Also, there is the chance of some fog in spots tomorrow morning which would also hinder things a bit. I see no reason to change my thoughts.

[Black Hole]

Most locations ended up with the same high +/- 1. I guess the cooling trend may start tomorrow then. Ecmwf ensembles showing 2.5" monday

[halofromajo]

Well more of the same today. What is going on?

[Black Hole]

Well more of the same today. What is going on?

Today went more as I expected actually. Most locations were about -2F from yesterday. I would expect more of the same Friday unless the stratus is particularly strong.

 

The cooling would be stronger with snow on the ground as I am sure you know. Its gradual without it.

[Black Hole]

Today went more as I expected actually. Most locations were about -2F from yesterday. I would expect more of the same Friday unless the stratus is particularly strong.

 

The cooling would be stronger with snow on the ground as I am sure you know. Its gradual without it.

Most locations running 2-3F cooler than yesterday and with higher RH values. Fog is evident over the GSL. Probably going to be quite foggy near the lake tonight.

 

I still think the inversion resets for sure by Monday if not Sunday.

[Black Hole]

1.01" of precip here since the 10th with some precip every day since the 9th. We got 3/4" of an inch of snow last night but its all gone now. Up to 8" on the season which is just awful but whatever I guess.

[Front Ranger]

1.01" of precip here since the 10th with some precip every day since the 9th. We got 3/4" of an inch of snow last night but its all gone now. Up to 8" on the season which is just awful but whatever I guess.

 

Lousy winter here so far as well. I've gotten 16" so far, about 50% of normal. Lots of Tr-1" non-events.

[Black Hole]

Lousy winter here so far as well. I've gotten 16" so far, about 50% of normal. Lots of Tr-1" non-events.

 

Through December SLC averages 21.1" with an additional 13" in January, so with it being halfway though the month I will use half of that. It snows more at my place than the airport but I will use their numbers anyway.

 

That gives me 8/26.5" which is about 30% of normal.

[Front Ranger]

Through December SLC averages 21.1" with an additional 13" in January, so with it being halfway though the month I will use half of that. It snows more at my place than the airport but I will use their numbers anyway.

 

That gives me 8/26.5" which is about 30% of normal.

 

Ugly. Thankfully, there's a long way to go for both of us before the snow season is over.

 

Next week looks semi-promising.

[Black Hole]

Ugly. Thankfully, there's a long way to go for both of us before the snow season is over.

 

Next week looks semi-promising.

I hope it works out for you then, for me it looks chilly but mostly dry. No realistic chances of more than a dusting of snow as far as I can tell. You are right though. I would be surprised if the seasonal wavelength changes didn't bring some kind of a shake up along with some more normal weather.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I hope it works out for you then, for me it looks chilly but mostly dry. No realistic chances of more than a dusting of snow as far as I can tell. You are right though. I would be surprised if the seasonal wavelength changes didn't bring some kind of a shake up along with some more normal weather.

I am hoping for a major pattern change that eliminates the almost endless ridging along the West Coast that is keeping your area (Four Corners region in general) drier than average as well as CA. We desperately need to build the snowpack in the mountains all up and down the West Coast, as it seems that everyone is below average in snowfall at this point in the season.

[Black Hole]

I am hoping for a major pattern change that eliminates the almost endless ridging along the West Coast that is keeping your area (Four Corners region in general) drier than average as well as CA. We desperately need to build the snowpack in the mountains all up and down the West Coast, as it seems that everyone is below average in snowfall at this point in the season.

Nothing looks to change anytime soon. Its driving me crazy.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Nothing looks to change anytime soon. Its driving me crazy.

It's driving me crazy, too, because I fear major league water restrictions for CA residents if we don't get some good snow producing systems soon.

 

I think there may be something going on in recent years that is unnatural that is keeping this ridging pattern in place and I am going to do a post very soon in the Climate Change thread detailing this.

[halofromajo]

Nothing looks to change anytime soon. Its driving me crazy.

Remember that ridge of death we were all talking about in November?  I think this current streak has surpassed that.