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Ended up with 10" here. We're pretty buried here at this point as you can see. In town Nordic trails are AMAZING with about a 20" base now.  http://i68.tinypic.com/16ii8ud.jpghttp://i63.tinypic.com/15

Stunning sunset here tonight.

A friend of mine took this while flying into SLC yesterday. This is over the Great Salt Lake. 

Posted Images

We had an MCV embedded in the flow around a passing upper level low which kicked off some fairly heavy rain and broke the Phoenix dry spell at 110 days. Ended up with .62" at my house and was in the 50s all day with low clouds. What a change! Back to mid 60s the rest of the week. 

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22 hours ago, Black Hole said:

We had an MCV embedded in the flow around a passing upper level low which kicked off some fairly heavy rain and broke the Phoenix dry spell at 110 days. Ended up with .62" at my house and was in the 50s all day with low clouds. What a change! Back to mid 60s the rest of the week. 

I'm glad you finally got something there in Phoenix! This has been an extremely dry and boring fall so far for the entire SW U.S., including almost all of CA!

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I like to follow this Twitch channel for the ducks. Look like they’re located outside of SLC in Utah and picked up a few inches of snow last night. First time it snowed since I followed this channel. Looks really nice this morning with the snow. 
 

What’s really cool is that the feeder is interactive, so viewers can feed the ducks by donating “bits” and the water is kept at a constant 38F/3C

13387DD5-773E-4C80-BD44-73C784E15DD2.png

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On 12/11/2020 at 10:27 PM, Dan the Weatherman said:

I'm glad you finally got something there in Phoenix! This has been an extremely dry and boring fall so far for the entire SW U.S., including almost all of CA!

It felt pretty lucky! It's probably going to be a while till we get anything meaningful again so I'll take it. 

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On 12/25/2020 at 6:40 PM, Black Hole said:

Too bad this thread has kind of died lately. Picked up a paltry .01" this morning but hey any rain is welcome around here. 

We are finally getting a decent storm in Socal tonight with even some thunderstorm activity, so maybe your area will get something in the next day or two.

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On 12/28/2020 at 3:35 AM, Dan the Weatherman said:

We are finally getting a decent storm in Socal tonight with even some thunderstorm activity, so maybe your area will get something in the next day or two.

I saw most areas did quite well yesterday in So Cal! No rain here but temperatures are much cooler again. Even some decent clouds. It's a nice break before the oven turns back on in a few months. I'm thinking it will be an early and hot spring this year. 

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Nothing going on down here at all. I was checking SLC and they are still just under 8" for the year. 2011-2012 was the last similar la nina. I don't know of any first year la nina that was so bad. 

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7 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Nothing going on down here at all. I was checking SLC and they are still just under 8" for the year. 2011-2012 was the last similar la nina. I don't know of any first year la nina that was so bad. 

That's bad, but at least it looks like they'll get some snow later this week. And things could change in a hurry once the pattern flips.

Low. Solar.

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This has really been a boring season for a first season La Nina. I know La Nina years can be quite dry in the Desert SW, but this one has been dry in a much larger region including much of the Intermountain West and northern California as well.

I am beginning to wonder if the +AMO (warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) that we have been pretty much constantly since the spring of 1995 is playing at least a partial role in this drought that has lasted off and on since 2012?

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13 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

That's bad, but at least it looks like they'll get some snow later this week. And things could change in a hurry once the pattern flips.

It's true. I suspect that at some point, perhaps Feb-Mar, they will rack up some decent totals to make up for the crappy winter so far. Probably will come in below average still but maybe it won't be as abysmal. 

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7 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

This has really been a boring season for a first season La Nina. I know La Nina years can be quite dry in the Desert SW, but this one has been dry in a much larger region including much of the Intermountain West and northern California as well.

I am beginning to wonder if the +AMO (warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) that we have been pretty much constantly since the spring of 1995 is playing at least a partial role in this drought that has lasted off and on since 2012?

It's definitely unique to have the entire west (outside of the far north basically) being dry. Usually somebody is getting it. Your guess is as good as mine but it does seem like all patterns lead to dry weather lately...

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14 hours ago, Black Hole said:

It's definitely unique to have the entire west (outside of the far north basically) being dry. Usually somebody is getting it. Your guess is as good as mine but it does seem like all patterns lead to dry weather lately...

I feel that much of the Southwest is suffering from a cruel double whammy this year, first with the almost total failure of the SW summer monsoon, followed by what has been a bone-dry fall and winter to date.

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On 1/8/2021 at 10:53 AM, Black Hole said:

Maybe times are changing? ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-1609977600-1610582400-1613952000-20.gif

I surely hope so! This has been one boring "rainy" season so far for CA and much of the Intermountain West! The entire region desperately needs precip right now in the form of both low elevation rain and mountain snow to boost the snowpack.

There has been only one significant rain event in Socal this year, and it brought hail like I have never seen before here in Orange. However, one exciting storm doesn't make up for complete season by any stretch and we need quite a few more storms to bring more beneficial moisture to the area.

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On 1/11/2021 at 2:36 PM, Dan the Weatherman said:

I surely hope so! This has been one boring "rainy" season so far for CA and much of the Intermountain West! The entire region desperately needs precip right now in the form of both low elevation rain and mountain snow to boost the snowpack.

There has been only one significant rain event in Socal this year, and it brought hail like I have never seen before here in Orange. However, one exciting storm doesn't make up for complete season by any stretch and we need quite a few more storms to bring more beneficial moisture to the area.

Looks like we might get a cut off low to pump in some rain next week. Flagstaff might get a lot of snow so that would really help. 

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Still some uncertainty with how it all plays out and this could easily bust, but it does seem likely we get some rain with the system coming in. The upper level low will tap into a remnant AR stream that has been sagging south and pump it into AZ on Tuesday-Wednesday. Somebody will probably get some decent rains but I expect most spots at least get a tenth of an inch or so. 

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13 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Still some uncertainty with how it all plays out and this could easily bust, but it does seem likely we get some rain with the system coming in. The upper level low will tap into a remnant AR stream that has been sagging south and pump it into AZ on Tuesday-Wednesday. Somebody will probably get some decent rains but I expect most spots at least get a tenth of an inch or so. 

GFS shows some parts of the desert SW seeing impressive totals.

gfs_apcpn_swus_19.png

Low. Solar.

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On 1/16/2021 at 9:11 PM, Front Ranger said:

GFS shows some parts of the desert SW seeing impressive totals.

gfs_apcpn_swus_19.png

We just issued a flash flood watch for parts of SE Cali and SW Arizona. I don't expect as much in Phoenix this round, but over the weekend it looks promising. 

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Parts of SW Arizona near Yuma have had over an inch and a half the last few days. Just .08" at my house so far but this storm cycle is just getting going.

Looks like Saturday-Sunday I could pick up .25-.75" of rain with perhaps 6-12" of snow in the mountain areas. A very cold storm drops in Monday-Tuesday. Some models even going for snow in the foothills around Phoenix. But I expect another .25-.50" with that and 10-20" in the mountains. This will probably save us heading into summer this year. 

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Looks like there will be several opportunities for snowfall here over the next week, but could easily be some near misses, too. Will just come down to the exact track of lows ejecting inland from the Pacific.

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Low. Solar.

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Noticed this graphic the other day. 

0257B30C-5C19-44BF-B9E7-823CA7D23E28.jpeg

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Picked up 2.5" yesterday. Sixth time this winter with a snowfall between 2-3", so a lot of little guys so far.

DEN had a low of 2 this morning, coldest of the season. The ridiculous high of 16 on 10/26 still stands as the coldest of the season.

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Over the series of storms I've managed about .80" so far, but some places have seen much more. The mountains to my north got blasted with over 30" and blizzard conditions in the last storm. Looks like another .10-.50" across the area this afternoon and maybe another storm next week. This sure is a change from before!

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Record low max for DEN yesterday with 11. Today and tomorrow will also smash record low maxes, and tomorrow may struggle to hit 0. Will almost certainly be the coldest high temp this late on record, aside from the ridiculous -1 seen on 2/27/62. Sunday night also has a real shot at recording one of the coldest lows ever seen after 2/10, with a forecast of -14.

This is the third historically cold air mass of the season here: 9/8-9/9 saw the coldest highs on record that early in the season, and 10/26 also set an incredible early season benchmark and new October record with a high of just 16.

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Low. Solar.

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DEN's high of 1 yesterday and low of -16 this morning both mark late season benchmarks second only to the February 1962 cold wave.

The month is now running more than 9 degrees below normal, and with continued cold weather over the next week, has a very real shot to challenge 1989's coldest February on record.

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Low. Solar.

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The mountains in Utah have done exceptionally well lately. SLC had a huge snow a few days back and broke their February 1 day record with over 11". The crazy thing was that it was not from a deep strong system, but instead from instability showers with some lake effect mixed in. 

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