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On 2/20/2021 at 10:24 PM, Black Hole said:

For AZ it looks like more of the same. Dry clippers hitting NE Arizona with periods of breezy conditions and mild temperatures. Already seeing a few small fires pop up. 

Maybe you are aware of this website already - but just in case, ClimateStations recently added Phoenix AZ to its database (continuous records for that city dating back to 1896), if you're interested in that information. I use it for Los Angeles, San Diego and others all the time for historical reference. It is updated on a monthly basis, currently through the beginning of February 2021.

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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

2020-2021 Season Total: 5.09" (as of 4/12/21)

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

2013-2014 Season Total: 7.36"

2012-2013 Season Total: 7.11"

2011-2012 Season Total: 7.02"

2010-2011 Season Total: 17.09"

2009-2010 Season Total: 11.59"

Average Seasonal Precipitation: 10.89" (11 years)

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 

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Ended up with 10" here. We're pretty buried here at this point as you can see. In town Nordic trails are AMAZING with about a 20" base now.  http://i68.tinypic.com/16ii8ud.jpghttp://i63.tinypic.com/15

Stunning sunset here tonight.

A friend of mine took this while flying into SLC yesterday. This is over the Great Salt Lake. 

Posted Images

On 2/25/2021 at 10:05 AM, Front Ranger said:

Ended up with 12" even!

Wow that's pretty good. I follow one of the mets from Colorado Springs on FB and it looks like they had a nice event down there too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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This write up is a masterpiece. Still a lot of bust potential with this one, though.

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK...

A major late season winter storm is still on track to hit
northeast and north central Colorado this weekend. Travel will
become difficult if not impossible in/near the Front Range
Mountains, Foothills, and I-25 Corridor, with the worst conditions
expected from Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

The heart of the upper level circulation which will become the
powerful storm is still just off the central California coast and
is rather disorganized at this hour. However, that will all change
as this circulation center drifts eastward late Friday night and
Saturday to the Four Corners area. That`s when this storm begins
to tap into a deep plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture. Models then
diverge somewhat in location, but especially in intensity most
likely due to differing internal model physics. We, along with
national guidance, still support a blend of the ensembles
especially since this storm is still so disorganized just off the
west coast.

The GFS and GEFS ensemble average is right near 3" of water for
Denver (on the high end), while the EC and its ensemble is
averaging about 1.7" for water equivalent. Meanwhile, the GEM and
its ensembles are pretty much middle of the road with closer to
2.5" of water on average. We, in coordination with national
guidance, are leaning toward the blend of EC and GEM numbers for
now. However, there has been a slight shift southward in the
latest operational member tracks so heavier (and near historic)
numbers are still indeed possible.

This storm has a lot going for it...
1) Strong infusion of Gulf of Mexico moisture
2) Moderate to strong dynamics as seen in the derived QG vertical
motion fields
3) Slow movement thanks to blocking ridge over the top, resulting
in a long duration event, at least 36 hours of high precipitation
rates
4) Strong upslope, as the latest NAEFS ensembles show record
or near record easterly component. (although other ensembles are
not as strong)
5) TROWAL (or trough of warm air aloft), representing the infusion
and upward vertical motion in the plume of rich gulf moisture
Saturday and Saturday night, and possibly into Sunday if storm
slows

All of these ingredient would support snowfall rates of 1-2 inches
per hour in the I-25 Corridor, and up to 3" per hour or more in
the foothills.

Now, a couple limiting factors...

1) A dry slot may work northward and effectively shut down
precipitation. Right now, given the location and stalling of the
upper low we think the dry slot would mainly impact the southeast
part of the forecast area. However, if the storm track ends up
being farther north, then precipitation amounts over the rest of
our forecast area could be cut back a little as well.
2) Temperatures. With very strong warm advection, some rain will
likely work westward across the plains. Right now, we don`t see
that getting any farther west than a Greeley to Limon line, as low
level cold/cool air should be firmly entrenched. Thus, we`d probably
end up with a formation of a barrier jet as precipitation
rates increase significantly Saturday and Saturday night.

We`ve kept the forecast as consistent as possible at this point,
with forecasts of 2-4 feet for the foothills and up to 2 feet for
the I-25 Corridor. As a result of some growing confidence and
messaging for this storm, we`ve upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings
for the Front Range Mountains, Foothills, and I-25 Corridor. To be
clear, these are the most likely forecast amounts. Should the
storm track stay farther south and closer to the GFS/GEFS solutions
then we could still be looking at a near or historic snowfall event.

 

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Low. Solar.

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5 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Looks like a really awesome storm for Colorado for sure. I couldn't add anything to what that AFD mentioned either. Take pictures and keep us updated on what you see! 

Consensus forecast is now 1-2' for Denver metro. So probably not a historic storm, unless main forcing and cyclogenesis ends up a little further south than currently forecast.

Thunder snow tomorrow night does appear to be a distinct possibility - will be ready to take video/pics for sure. 😃

Low. Solar.

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@Front Ranger
 

My daughter lives in Fort Collins and is supposed to be at the Denver airport at 9 am Monday morning. Any thoughts on likelihood she can get there and likelihood her flight takes off?  She has an SUV so guessing the main roads will be ok for her as long as she can get out of the apartment complex. I know that area does snow pretty well but this sounds like a big one even for there. 

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2 hours ago, T-Town said:

@Front Ranger
 

My daughter lives in Fort Collins and is supposed to be at the Denver airport at 9 am Monday morning. Any thoughts on likelihood she can get there and likelihood her flight takes off?  She has an SUV so guessing the main roads will be ok for her as long as she can get out of the apartment complex. I know that area does snow pretty well but this sounds like a big one even for there. 

Could be tough. Sounds like Fort Collins area could be one of the hardest hit, although their slightly lower elevation may limit totals a bit right in town. 

The fact that she's leaving Monday morning may help, but if things go as forecast, I'm sure there will be plenty of delays at the airport. 

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'll take 21". Although man, this stuff is gonna be heavy...won't be fun to shovel, and no quick warmup to help either.

It’s hard for me to pick out landmarks on that map but it looks like the bullseye is pretty much over the Denver metro now?

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30 minutes ago, T-Town said:

It’s hard for me to pick out landmarks on that map but it looks like the bullseye is pretty much over the Denver metro now?

Yeah, on that map. That 17" is near Fort Collins.

Low. Solar.

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, on that map. That 17" is near Fort Collins.

Cool thanks. The weather has been an adjustment for her coming from the Puget Sound region. She was there for the 100 degrees to snowing in 36 hours or whatever it was last fall. She is like wtf. I would like to experience it but she was less impressed. 

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7 hours ago, T-Town said:

Cool thanks. The weather has been an adjustment for her coming from the Puget Sound region. She was there for the 100 degrees to snowing in 36 hours or whatever it was last fall. She is like wtf. I would like to experience it but she was less impressed. 

Ha, yeah last September was extreme even for here.

Low. Solar.

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2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Mind sharing the latest Euro map?

I came in to get my charger and saw your post... here you go.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-colorado-total_snow_10to1-5852800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This storm started slow, but turned into a beast today. Only had about 3-4" when I went to bed last night. Woke up to over a foot, and it's only intensified as the day has gone on.

Winds really started picking up around 11 and blizzard warning was posted around noon. I was driving around the neighborhood just as it started getting bad. This was two hours ago...now there's anywhere from 2-3' on the side roads and tons of people stuck. I briefly got stuck a block from my house trying to dig someone out.

IMG_20210314_130039224.thumb.jpg.235ef49af89bc25a9513f0d9e45b6d34.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This storm started slow, but turned into a beast today. Only had about 3-4" when I went to bed last night. Woke up to over a foot, and it's only intensified as the day has gone on.

Winds really started picking up around 11 and blizzard warning was posted around noon. I was driving around the neighborhood just as it started getting bad. This was two hours ago...now there's anywhere from 2-3' on the side roads and tons of people stuck. I briefly got stuck a block from my house trying to dig someone out.

IMG_20210314_130039224.thumb.jpg.235ef49af89bc25a9513f0d9e45b6d34.jpg

 

Wow.

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3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

This storm started slow, but turned into a beast today. Only had about 3-4" when I went to bed last night. Woke up to over a foot, and it's only intensified as the day has gone on.

Winds really started picking up around 11 and blizzard warning was posted around noon. I was driving around the neighborhood just as it started getting bad. This was two hours ago...now there's anywhere from 2-3' on the side roads and tons of people stuck. I briefly got stuck a block from my house trying to dig someone out.

IMG_20210314_130039224.thumb.jpg.235ef49af89bc25a9513f0d9e45b6d34.jpg

 

Looks like a mild day at OLM out there.

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Over 24" at DEN at last check and still dumping.

Fourth biggest snowstorm on record, and has a shot at being the greatest one day snowfall on record.

Also unusual, in that DEN almost always sees less accumulation than most the metro area, but this time was about on par with normally snowier locations further west.

Impossible to say how much I've gotten here, but definitely at least 2'. Drifts up to 4' or so in spots. I'll take some more pics tomorrow in the daylight.

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Cheyenne, WY officially recorded 30.8" of snow from this storm, their largest 2 day total on record. Parts of the city apparently received close to 40".

Here's a pic from driving around a bit last night, and a couple from the rental property this morning (about a mile from my house). 

IMG_20210315_022026170.jpg.dfd1379b0e1daff0ae21e092f995d291.jpg

IMG_20210315_105709780_HDR.jpg.7e78af0e563584eef3668a611edce038.jpg

IMG_20210315_105812987_HDR.jpg.3adabb0807ec9f9a1cfdeec00adc6c9b.jpg

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Snowiest March since 2003 for DEN, with 26.5". Fifth snowiest overall.

EDIT: That's for the old Stapleton recording station, which has the bulk of long term records. For the new airport site, which has been around since 1996, it snowed 34", which fell just short of the record of 35.2" (2003) there.

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