3/13 - 3/14 Monster March Storm

[Tom]

This may very well be the strongest storm to hit the Sub Forum this month and it will pack quite a punch for certain locals.  A whole host of interesting wx is expected to target the central CONUS states from Severe Wx across the deep South, to a raging Blizzard into the Great Plains of W NE/Dakotas and a taste of Spring time warmth across the MW/GL's.  This system will carry a dramatic wind field for many of us on this board and quite a deep low pressure which will track out of the 4 corners region and into the central Plains.

 

Let's discuss...

 

First thing that stands out is the massive wind field and likely Blizzard which will rage across the foothills of CO and into portions of W NE into the Dakotas.  The 00z Euro is suggesting max wind gusts topping 60-70 mph in NE!  All indications are that this will be a ferocious winter storm where the snows do fall.  On the flip side, severe wx is more than likely across the southern Plains states.  What a classic March Blizzard!

[gosaints]

Looks terrible for the minnesota river valley through the metro....

[CentralNebWeather]

This may very well be the strongest storm to hit the Sub Forum this month and it will pack quite a punch for certain locals. A whole host of interesting wx is expected to target the central CONUS states from Severe Wx across the deep South, to a raging Blizzard into the Great Plains of W NE/Dakotas and a taste of Spring time warmth across the MW/GL's. This system will carry a dramatic wind field for many of us on this board and quite a deep low pressure which will track out of the 4 corners region and into the central Plains.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

 

First thing that stands out is the massive wind field and likely Blizzard which will rage across the foothills of CO and into portions of W NE into the Dakotas. The 00z Euro is suggesting max wind gusts topping 60-70 mph in NE! All indications are that this will be a ferocious winter storm where the snows do fall. On the flip side, severe wx is more than likely across the southern Plains states. What a classic March Blizzard!

Should be fun to watch Tom. Right now my county is on the edge. Hastings said our area could end with several inches of snow with winds of 50-60. They didn’t say blizzard but made it known that even a little amount of snow with those winds will cause problems. Also predicting 3” of rain prior to this on our glacier. Never boring around here this winter. Latest NAM through 84 hours has snow just 1 county to our west as it is still developing.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

12Z GFS, GFS FV3 and Canadian have inched the snow line farther east in Central Nebraska.  Here is the Canadian.  

[St Paul Storm]

Temps trending a little colder and the track is a bit further east. 1-2” of rain on top of a 22” snowpack followed by several inches of snow...would be interesting.

[gosaints]

Temps trending a little colder and the track is a bit further east. 1-2” of rain on top of a 22” snowpack followed by several inches of snow...would be interesting.

we got about .4 inches of rain before change over yesterday. Almost no runoff. It at the bottom if the glacier

[CentralNebWeather]

Temps trending a little colder and the track is a bit further east. 1-2” of rain on top of a 22” snowpack followed by several inches of snow...would be interesting.

You’re right. From a couple days ago until now the low has been moving eastward. Let’s see what the Euro says. I wouldn’t mind one more big storm this winter. Now local weather apps are saying potential blizzard conditions Wednesday night into Thursday morning with rain/snow then snow. No mention of accumulating snow yet, but over 50 mph winds would do the trick.

[gosaints]

Euro looks to be a bit west of the gfs at 96. 981

[Hawkeye]

Ryan Maue just tweeted a graphic of the new euro showing 972 mb over Kansas, which would be the strongest low in Kansas in at least 40 years.

[gabel23]

Ryan Maue just tweeted a graphic of the new euro showing 972 mb over Kansas, which would be the strongest low in Kansas in at least 40 years.

Wow this would be a storm. The path it takes that might give me snow!

[gosaints]

Overnight lows in the mid forties on the euro wed and Thursday...

[james1976]

Overnight lows in the mid forties on the euro wed and Thursday...

Typically this time of year id be fine with that but not with this snowpack.

[gosaints]

Typically this time of year id be fine with that but not with this snowpack.

 

on the bright side getting that warm probably means the heavy inverted trough rains are to our west

[james1976]

on the bright side getting that warm probably means the heavy inverted trough rains are to our west

Yeah I wish we could get 40s without any rain. Gonna be a mess

[CentralNebWeather]

Hastings still saying potential blizzard just to the west of my area but won’t take much more of a jog east to put us in potential blizzard conditions. Still 3 days away. North Platte saying one of the deepest lows in over 10 years. Someone is going to get buried by this. Goodland thinks temps are too warm into Thursday. Lots of moving parts.

[clintbeed1993]

We ALWAYS waste the best storms and precip on cold rain. I swear   Completely useless and actually a problem right now with the flooding potential.

[gabel23]

We ALWAYS waste the best storms and precip on cold rain. I swear <_ completely useless and actually a problem right now with the flooding potential.>

I just went around the house and I have major ice dam problems. I hope the rain we do get comes gradual and can break that up. Nothing worse than flooding and especially in the spring! Below what is left of my snow; which is about 5" there is a layer of ice. We could have major problems if the rain comes all at once. 

[gabel23]

Hastings still saying potential blizzard just to the west of my area but won’t take much more of a jog east to put us in potential blizzard conditions. Still 3 days away. North Platte saying one of the deepest lows in over 10 years. Someone is going to get buried by this. Goodland thinks temps are too warm into Thursday. Lots of moving parts. 

That's some wording right there; too bad we waste it in the spring as Clint mentioned. Maybe we get lucky on this and models are being too warm with this thing. 

 

This system has the potential to be one of the stronger storms in

the last 10 years or so - with very deep surface low pressure and

abundant moisture resulting in strong winds and heavy precipitation.

Please monitor the latest forecast information early this week.

[gabel23]

Here's the latest from Hastings. They; along with OAX mention that storms forming out in front of the ULL may rob the deformation zone of precip and also we might get dry slotted. North Platte on the other hand mentions a conveyor belt of moisture wrapping back into the trowal leading to a major blizzard. It will be an interesting next couple days. 

[Tom]

00z Euro...models are shifting the snow farther NW and not really effecting anyone on here but precip will be plentiful across the Plains.

[Tom]

In general, for real warmth to arrive this far north in March you need a strong southerly flow.  Needless to say, folks around the MW/GL's will indeed have their SW Flow accompanied by very windy conditions with 50-60 mph+ wind gusts!  The Windy City will be livin' up to it's name on Thursday.

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like we’re going to dodge a big bullet here in terms of rainfall. That dry slot on the Euro looking good. I’ll take it. The warm March sun melted some snow yesterday and is already causing issues in the neighborhood. The drains are completely iced over and any rainfall would only add to the problems.

[gosaints]

Looks like we’re going to dodge a big bullet here in terms of rainfall. That dry slot on the Euro looking good. I’ll take it. The warm March sun melted some snow yesterday and is already causing issues in the neighborhood. The drains are completely iced over and any rainfall would only add to the problems.

Models wont latch onto rainfall potential until much closer to the storm.  Thats classic spring cutter.  AS of now it does look like crisis averted.

[Minny_Weather]

 

 

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING...

 

The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued a

 

* Flood Watch for portions of Iowa and Nebraska, including the

following areas, in Iowa, Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona,

Montgomery, Page, Pottawattamie, and Shelby. In Nebraska,

Antelope, Boone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Cedar, Colfax, Cuming,

Dodge, Douglas, Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Lancaster,

Madison, Nemaha, Otoe, Pawnee, Pierce, Platte, Richardson,

Saline, Sarpy, Saunders, Seward, Stanton, Thurston,

Washington, and Wayne.

 

* From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening

 

* A strong storm will bring warming temperatures and 1 to 3 inches

of rain to the region during the middle of the week. This will

result in an increased risk of river flooding, do to the unusual

combination of heavy rain, snowmelt, saturated or frozen soils,

and thick ice cover on area rivers.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant and rapid river level increases

are possible do to runoff or localized ice jams. Anyone with

interests along or near area rivers should continue to monitor

the forecast and river levels closely.

 

[FarmerRick]

From the OAX disco this morning:

 

 

And finally to the part of the discussion this forecaster has
been looking forward to the most. Am I talking about the end? Well
maybe partly, but I am mostly referring to the end of this week
and early next week, when a high amplitude ridge looks like it
will try and take shape over the Western U.S. This hints at the
potential for a less active storm track and an opportunity to dry
out over the Central Plains. Perhaps we could even, dare I say
it, see something closer to spring if the ridge shifts east later
next week.

 

[Minny_Weather]

From the OAX disco this morning:

 

I see that too. We'll still be below normal, but by less than 10 degrees as opposed to the 30 degrees below normal we saw last week. Basically, it will feel like Spring. Maybe we can salvage the severe wx season after all.

[Iowawx]

This should provide a decent rainfall here. Maybe 0.8-1.0" if models are right. Really looking forward to reaching the mid 50's on Wednesday! 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM wants to paint a stripe of heavier snow on the backside of the low over Central and East Central Nebraska.  That would cause many problems if the winds are as strong as are being advertised.  Local mets. keep saying even with 1-3", winds of over 60 MPH would cause blizzard conditions.  Might be really interesting here overnight Wed. through Thursday morning.

[gabel23]

12Z NAM wants to paint a stripe of heavier snow on the backside of the low over Central and East Central Nebraska.  That would cause many problems if the winds are as strong as are being advertised.  Local mets. keep saying even with 1-3", winds of over 60 MPH would cause blizzard conditions.  Might be really interesting here overnight Wed. through Thursday morning.

yes it does; this mornings GFS wanted to do the same thing somewhat. Might be a small area but someone might get lucky on the back side of the low. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS also putting down some snow and the GFS FV3 looks like this.  Would be something if this materialized, but as this model has done most of the winter it overplays amounts.  Fun to look at however.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Its the semi-annual, Sidney Nabraska Storm.

[East Dubzz]

The change in time for models runs is still throwing me off.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro also painting a swath of snow through Central Nebraska Wed. night through Thursday morning.  Ok then.  

[Craig-OmahaWX]

You can just feel the excitement in here! lol

[Tom]

This is such a fascinating storm system that is coming together.  You don't often see wx porn like this as it will come very close to setting pressure records across KS as the 2nd Blizzard since Feb rages across the central CONUS. 

 

Interestingly enough, during LRC cycle # 1 (Oct 13th-15th), there were 2 streams of energy that didn't quite phase into a monster storm.  The northern piece back then tracked across the northern Rockies/MT and the southern piece dug deep into S TX while the northern trough dug down the leeward side of the Rockies on the 14th.  Similarly speaking, this system is taking shape in almost the same locations.  It's fascinating watching this storm come together and produce a Monstrous system across the Plains states.

[CentralNebWeather]

This is such a fascinating storm system that is coming together.  You don't often see wx porn like this as it will come very close to setting pressure records across KS as the 2nd Blizzard since Feb rages across the central CONUS. 

 

Interestingly enough, during LRC cycle # 1 (Oct 13th-15th), there were 2 streams of energy that didn't quite phase into a monster storm.  The northern piece back then tracked across the northern Rockies/MT and the southern piece dug deep into S TX while the northern trough dug down the leeward side of the Rockies on the 14th.  Similarly speaking, this system is taking shape in almost the same locations.  It's fascinating watching this storm come together and produce a Monstrous system across the Plains states.

Tom, NWS Hastings this morning says they almost issued a Winter Storm Watch as the chance of a heavy band forming over Central Nebraska is increasing.  That very heavy snow band could be accompanied by winds gusting to 65 MPH which would obviously be blizzard conditions.  They are waiting as they already have a flood watch and high wind watch.  Wed. night into Thursday morning has the potential to be extremely dangerous in Central and Western Nebraska.

[gosaints]

As expected things seem to be trending wetter in the warm sector.   

[Snowshoe]

Flood watches from Kansas to Canada. 

[Tom]

Tom, NWS Hastings this morning says they almost issued a Winter Storm Watch as the chance of a heavy band forming over Central Nebraska is increasing. That very heavy snow band could be accompanied by winds gusting to 65 MPH which would obviously be blizzard conditions. They are waiting as they already have a flood watch and high wind watch. Wed. night into Thursday morning has the potential to be extremely dangerous in Central and Western Nebraska.

This may rival some of the historic March storms that have traversed the region. Not a boring wx pattern in the Plains!

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM looking juicier over Nebraska.  I will look at amounts when it is finished.