3/13 - 3/14 Monster March Storm

[CentralNebWeather]

If the NAM were to verify, this could be close to our greatest snowfall of the season. (Blizzard of Dec. 26th we had 6-8" with large drifts).    With the projected winds, are blizzard warnings in our future?  What a winter around Nebraska.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM-  my area close to 7" with 11" not far away.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z 3km NAM also showing similar numbers and moving farther east in Nebraska.  Could Clint and Gabel23 also be in on the action?

[CentralNebWeather]

My gosh, 12Z GFS has the low at 969 in western Kansas at 21Z.  I think I saw yesterday this could be the lowest pressure ever in Kansas history.  I will check, but if it isn't it would have to be close.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like most models are showing the heavy snow band over Central Nebraska.  The Euro was showing it on the 0z.  If the Euro holds I would think Winter Storm Watches might be issued for more of the area, probably from location west imo.  We'll see.

[jaster220]

You can just feel the excitement in here! lol

 

Presuming you meant [sarc] with your post. Which would describe almost the entire winter here. With this one, we get a brief warm spell filled with rain and winds which will make it feel much less "user friendly" than say a couple days @ 60F with sun and light winds. 

[gabel23]

Looks like most models are showing the heavy snow band over Central Nebraska.  The Euro was showing it on the 0z.  If the Euro holds I would think Winter Storm Watches might be issued for more of the area, probably from location west imo.  We'll see.

I think your in prime position yet again to get into the action! I don't think the snow will make it this far east but you never know. This storm is ridiculously strong! 

[OmahaSnowFan]

First flood warnings have been issued for the Elkhorn River west of Omaha. NWS talking of moderate to major and possibly historic flooding coming later this week and weekend.

 

I've had .26" of rain so far this morning on my weather station.

[CentralNebWeather]

I think your in prime position yet again to get into the action! I don't think the snow will make it this far east but you never know. This storm is ridiculously strong! 

I really think as strong as this low will be there may be some bands that are very heavy.  I think you have a chance.  It is all going to depend on temp.

[CentralNebWeather]

Well there we go, Winter Storm Watches just issued.  

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings 12 NOON:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1200 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Corrected to include wind gusts

...Blizzard Conditions Possible...

Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-
Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-
Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-Webster-Nuckolls-
Thayer-
Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Bellaire, Smith Center,
Kensington, Mankato, Jewell, Ionia, Burr Oak, Ord, Greeley,
Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach, Fullerton, Genoa, Loup City,
Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield, St. Libory, Central City,
Stromsburg, Osceola, Shelby, Polk, Lexington, Cozad,
Willow Island, Gothenburg, Kearney, Grand Island, Aurora, York,
Elwood, Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Minden, Hastings, Sutton,
Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield, Geneva, Exeter, Fairmont,
Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma,
Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, Hildreth, Inavale, Red Cloud,
Blue Hill, Rosemont, Bladen, Bostwick, Superior, Nelson, Hebron,
and Deshler
1200 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Combination of north to
northwest winds at least 30 to 45 mph and gusts of 55 to 65 mph
combined with potentially intense snow squalls could send
visibilities to near zero. Total snow accumulations of up to one
to two inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible.
Locally heavier amounts of snow are possible in heavier snow
bands.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east
central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions could impact the
morning or evening commute. Strong winds could cause extensive
damage to trees and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Link to the NWS hydrologic site. Crazy to see some of the river forecasts: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=OAX

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro with a 983 Low over Omaha at 48 hours.  Extremely strong winds for the western 3/4 of Nebraska at that time.  The heavy snow band is from Lexington to about GI and from Northern Kansas up to South Dakota.  Euro is painting a heavy swath through this area, including myself.  On weather.us, so hard to know for sure, but looks like a solid 4-6" or more.  Anyone have the 12Z Euro snowfall map?  Thanks

[Hawkeye]

Models have been coming back down some with rain totals across eastern Iowa.  The latest euro only has a few tenths falling.

[OmahaSnowFan]

SPC has added a marginal risk for southern Nebraska mentioning possible low topped supercells tomorrow afternoon with tornado potential based on clearing and instability. OAX mentioned this in the AFD as well.

[CentralNebWeather]

Interesting story. Our football practice fields for our school district, 3 full fields, have one that sits lower on the west side.  Our soccer team uses them to practice and plays games on the East and Middle fields during the spring.  They have been covered with snow and drifts since November.  As things have been melting this week, water is several feet deep on that field.  Our city crews have been out pumping water off of them into the storm drains on the street to the north.  There is just no place for the water to go as the ground is frozen below.  Now if we get more snow with blizzard conditions, the same scenario may be playing out again.

[East Dubzz]

HRRR looking rather dry for this evening. That’s rather disappointing, as I just went and got a new rain gauge! I guess it’ll be fine as long as we even see a little rain.

[james1976]

Definitely dont need any rain around here. I'm looking forward to the 50s though!

[Hawkeye]

HRRR looking rather dry for this evening. That’s rather disappointing, as I just went and got a new rain gauge! I guess it’ll be fine as long as we even see a little rain.

Last storm we only received a half inch and this one isn't looking any better.  The better totals may be pretty scattered.  Maybe we can get lucky and get a brief thunderstorm tomorrow along the cold front.

[East Dubzz]

Last storm we only received a half inch and this one isn't looking any better. The better totals may be pretty scattered. Maybe we can get lucky and get a brief thunderstorm tomorrow along the cold front.

Yeah it’s disappointing to see tonight’s even be so lackluster, because it seemed like that’s where we had the chance for a more sustained rainfall. Like you said, may we can get a brief thunderstorm, but it may be very hit or miss by the looks of it.

 

At least I’m going to very much appreciate the warm-up associated with this system. While there is definitely still a snowpack around, things are starting to get a little gross around here, and the faster that is gone, the better.

[jcwxguy]

12Z Euro with a 983 Low over Omaha at 48 hours. Extremely strong winds for the western 3/4 of Nebraska at that time. The heavy snow band is from Lexington to about GI and from Northern Kansas up to South Dakota. Euro is painting a heavy swath through this area, including myself. On weather.us, so hard to know for sure, but looks like a solid 4-6" or more. Anyone have the 12Z Euro snowfall map? Thanks

[CentralNebWeather]

 

12Z Euro with a 983 Low over Omaha at 48 hours. Extremely strong winds for the western 3/4 of Nebraska at that time. The heavy snow band is from Lexington to about GI and from Northern Kansas up to South Dakota. Euro is painting a heavy swath through this area, including myself. On weather.us, so hard to know for sure, but looks like a solid 4-6" or more. Anyone have the 12Z Euro snowfall map? Thanks

 

Thanks alot.  It has me at 8 inches with potential 65 MPH wind gusts.  Whoa.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Blizzard warning details for western SoDak. Crazy stuff! 2 feet of snow, up to 1/2" ice in some spots, and winds up to 70 mph. I have a sister that lives in Rapid City and a grandma that lives in Spearfish out in the Black Hills. Would love to experience a storm like this....

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=unr&wwa=blizzard%20warning

[gabel23]

Here is Chadron, NE snow forecast........WOW!

 

Wednesday

Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain, becoming all snow after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 11am. Patchy fog before 8am. Areas of freezing fog between 9am and 10am. High near 30. Windy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

Wednesday Night

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Widespread dense freezing fog before 7pm. Low around 22. Windy, with a north northwest wind 35 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

[St Paul Storm]

The entire states of WI, MN, NE and SD under some form of precip watch/warning. Impressive.

[Snowshoe]

Flood Watch issued and the 3pm forecast "upgraded" to 3/4" - 1" of rain tonight. I was hoping the heavier rain would be off to the east.

[Snowshoe]

There's a LOT of water in that snowpack.

 

[Minny_Weather]

Marginal risk for severe wx tomorrow

 

 

 

...Southern NE and northern KS...
Low-topped convection is forecast to develop by early afternoon near
and east-northeast of the surface low with an arc of marginal
low-level moisture (upper 40-lower 50s surface dewpoints) near the
NE/KS border. Modest heating will contribute to steepening
low-level lapse rates as the mid-level cold pocket and a cooling
profile aloft result in weak buoyancy. Low-level vorticity will
maximize near and northeast of the low and forecast soundings show
some enlargement of the low-level hodograph coincident with peak
heating. Given these combination of factors, the possibility exists
for a few mini supercells. The tornado risk will be conditional on
the degree of destabilization. The strong to severe threat will
likely cease coincident with the nocturnal cooling during the
evening

 

 

[Stormy]

Some nice t. storms popping along I-80 to my west in central Ia. Hopefully get something out of that.

 

[Stormhunter87]

It is crazy foggy here. Reminds me of England when we were stationed there.

[gabel23]

If the nam is right tonight then I see heavy rain, severe storms in the afternoon, then possible blizzard conditions close by. Wow what an amazingly dynamic storm.

[Andie]

Foggy here too last 2 days.

 

Our rain event....e-vent....has turned into a big bust.

They hype it up. 2" of rain, oh yeah.

Oh, no.

 

We should see ( if lucky) .25" of rain in a quickee rain event.

It'll blow through tonight in a line that's been sitting out west raining on our neighbors.

Then, no rain forecast for 10 days. Temps between 60* and 40*.

Swell.

[St Paul Storm]

Water already dripping down the basement wall and it hasn’t even really rained yet. Tomorrow is gonna be ‘one of those days’ when the rains hit. Way too much water sitting around with no where to go.

[Andie]

Best of luck my friend.

[gosaints]

Water already dripping down the basement wall and it hasn’t even really rained yet. Tomorrow is gonna be ‘one of those days’ when the rains hit. Way too much water sitting around with no where to go.

.5 inch here. Primed the pump so to speak. Snow is saturated fully now plenty of melt now. Areal flooding just north of here

[Stormhunter87]

If the nam is right tonight then I see heavy rain, severe storms in the afternoon, then possible blizzard conditions close by. Wow what an amazingly dynamic storm.

Easter tornadoes in 1925 comes to mind. Although I hope that doesn't happen.

[OmahaSnowFan]

If the sun comes out, I’m planning on chasing tomorrow. These cold core/ low top supercell setups can be pretty prolific tornado producers

[Iowawx]

Looking at radar here already has me ready for severe weather season. Decent rain just to our west moving towards the Cedar Rapids area. 

 

Update: Just saw lightning off to the west!

[gabel23]

Easter tornadoes in 1925 comes to mind. Although I hope that doesn't happen.

It just has a “feel out there” that something big is gonna happen. It’s crazy seeing that low just pinwheel it’s way through eastern Nebraska on the models. It’s still at 980 mb+ over us.

[East Dubzz]

.5 inch here. Primed the pump so to speak. Snow is saturated fully now plenty of melt now. Areal flooding just north of here

Man you guys steal all the snow and now taking all the rain too? Share a little why don’t ya?!

 

On a serious note, we should have some rain showers coming through here shortly. Hopefully adds up to a measurable amount. Really want to put my new rain gauge to use haha