3/28 - 3/30 Plains/Lower GL's Spring Storm System

[Tom]

This has been a very active month of March and it's "fitting" to see the month end on a stormy note. With that being said, the models have converged on a pretty potent Spring storm system to come out of CO and track across the Plains due west/east into the Lower GL's late this week into the weekend. Seems like a heavy precip producer is on tap with some late season snows across portions of NE into the MW/GL's.

 

 

Let's discuss...

 

LOT has already issued a Hydrologic Outlook in advance of this system...

Hydrologic OutlookHydrologic Outlook

ILC007-031-037-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111-

141-197-201-INC007-073-089-111-127-252145-

 

Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service Chicago IL

438 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 /538 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019/

 

...Significant Rainfall Late This Week May Lead to Renewed

Flooding ...

 

A front will stall over the region late in the week, which will

result in a couple bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall from

Thursday night through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are also

possible. Significant rainfall totals of one inch to in excess of

two inches are possible, which could cause sharp river and stream

rises and lowland flooding. This includes the most impacted

basins the past few weeks, the Rock, Pecatonica and Fox.

 

Those living along rivers and streams should prepared for the

possibility of renewed flooding. Stay tuned to the latest

forecasts for updates.

[CentralNebWeather]

This has been a very active month of March and it's "fitting" to see the month end on a stormy note.  With that being said, the models have diverged on a pretty potent Spring storm system to come out of CO and track across the Plains due west/east into the Lower GL's late this week into the weekend.  Seems like a heavy precip producer is on tap with some late season snows across portions of NE into the MW/GL's. 

 

 

Let's discuss...

 

LOT has already issued a Hydrologic Outlook in advance of this system...

Looks very active around here this weekend.  Some models putting out a ridiculous amount of snow.  Storms have happened quite a few times over the years in late March and early April.  Last year we had a potent storm the 2nd week of April.  Good thing about storms this time of year, the snow doesn't stick around long.  The bad news is more precipitation on top of already saturated soil and full rivers.

[CentralNebWeather]

Here is the 0Z Canadian for example.

[Andie]

North Texas had many areas of strong storms last night. I was on the Red River and the area just NE of Sherman saw a funnel cloud and rain while NE of Dallas in McKinney and Frisco had marble to golfball size hail coating the ground like snow.

 

Plenty of punch in these but my place SW of Ft. Worth got only a trace of rain. Lots of lightning and volatility in these.

A very busy Sunday evening.

[Minny_Weather]

Give me half an inch of snow from this so we can extend our last measurable snow date imo. After such an awesome Winter it'd be a shame to have our last measurable snow be before the average date.

[CentralNebWeather]

Already looking at many changes to school activities later this week.  We might hit 80 degrees on Wed. and have a snowstorm Friday night with quite a bit of rain preceding the snow on Friday.  Soccer, Track, Tennis and Golf are looking to reschedule.  This winter and spring have kept our AD busy with postponements and cancellations.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like the 12Z GFS, FV3 GFS, and the CMC all have the snow going across Nebraska into Iowa Friday/Saturday.  I'm sure as always temperatures will be a big factor on what the snow accumulations will be.  If the snow comes over night  it would have a better chance of piling up.  Still plenty of time for changes one way or another.

[Hawkeye]

The UK continues to be farther south than other models.  Today's 12z run has the heavy precip down in central/northern Missouri, with only light precip up to Cedar Rapids.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro seems to have jumped N from 00z

[Madtown]

bring it I'd love a quick snow storm!

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro

 

Total precip

 

Snow precip

[CentralNebWeather]

Hastings beginning to talk about this storm. Friday afternoon through Friday night. Possible moderate accumulations with enough wind to cause blowing. They still say 36-48 hours before talk of specific snow amounts.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Plenty of ensembles look good for much of Nebraska! Would love one more snow to make us hit some records!

[Stormhunter87]

The cmc has been extremely consistent for this storm

[gosaints]

The cmc has been extremely consent for this storm

Probably consistently over done in the cold sector

[Hawkeye]

2-3 days ago, this system was looking pretty robust for many.  Since then, models have trended south and weaker.  Now it's looking more like light rain followed by light snow from Nebraska through Iowa... not too exciting.

[East Dubzz]

2-3 days ago, this system was looking pretty robust for many. Since then, models have trended south and weaker. Now it's looking more like light rain followed by light snow from Nebraska through Iowa... not too exciting.

Probably for the best, though.

[Minny_Weather]

2-3 days ago, this system was looking pretty robust for many. Since then, models have trended south and weaker. Now it's looking more like light rain followed by light snow from Nebraska through Iowa... not too exciting.

The last thing we need from this is appreciable precip.

[Hawkeye]

Wednesday is looking a bit windy, but it will be the warmest day in several months... 60 in Dubuque to low 70s along the Missouri river.  Windy low 60s may have a bit of a chill to it, but it's nice to see 60º pop up again.

[Hawkeye]

The NAM wants to go way south with this.

[East Dubzz]

The NAM wants to go way south with this.

Could happen, but not worth too much attention for the long range NAM.

[CentralNebWeather]

Models today are really backing off on the snow around here.  Local mets. seem to think it will primarily be a rain event, and even that looks to be shifting south.  NAM is way south for what it's worth.

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian is off its rocker.  It has a strong, wrapped up low dumping heavy rain and snow across Iowa.  It actually got stronger this run while every other model has gone south and weak.  There's no way it's right.

[Hawkeye]

12z FV3 - Little if any precip north of Des Moines-Cedar Rapids.

[CentralNebWeather]

The Canadian is off its rocker.  It has a strong, wrapped up low dumping heavy rain and snow across Iowa.  It actually got stronger this run while every other model has gone south and weak.  There's no way it's right.

That is much stronger.  I anticipate this becoming a general rain event with some wet snow in the evening when it is ending.  

[CentralNebWeather]

 12Z Euro wants to put down a good amount of snow across Nebraska Friday.  When the King is on board, I put more stock into the potential.  We'll see.

[CentralNebWeather]

18Z NAM back north with a good amount of snow over Nebraska through 84 Hours.  Who the heck knows what will happen with this.

[Stormhunter87]

Either way this starts a train of storms. And some are looking like just dumps of precipitation.

[Minny_Weather]

Either way this starts a train of storms. And some are looking like just dumps of precipitation.

Which we don't need. Drove thru Winslow on the drive back down from Fargo today and the scene there was just sad. If every storm shriveled up till May I wouldn't complain. Not sure the rivers can even handle a routine thunderstorm at this point yet alone a train of organized storm systems.

[Hawkeye]

NAM went from way south at 12z to a strong, north outlier at 00z.

[East Dubzz]

Not much snow, but it appears the GFS took a bit of a jump north as well with the heaviest precipitation.

[Tom]

It seems the models are shifting the heaviest precip farther south.  I posted both the 00z Euro/Ukie below...

 

 

00z GEFS showing a similar trend as well...

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Hastings really backing off and down playing any snow, maybe 1" or less in the the western part of Central Nebraska.  Will still see a cold rain, but snow chances have greatly been decreased.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM throwing out insane amounts of snow for Friday.

[Minny_Weather]

May as well break the yearly snowfall record while we're at it I guess lol.

[Stormhunter87]

Nam is bouncing all over. Wpc ain't buying any of this. I'm going with I have no idea how to call this.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS and Canadian say what Friday snow?  NAM looks like it is on its own island with this one.

[jaster220]

12Z NAM throwing out insane amounts of snow for Friday.

12Z NAM.png

 

LOL @ NAM in a marginal thermals scenario. My grid has a useless nasty 41F and strata-form Rainer for Saturday. My $$ be on that outcome    

[OmahaSnowFan]

12Z GFS and Canadian say what Friday snow? NAM looks like it is on its own island with this one.

And wasn’t the Canadian also one of the models that was showing a lot of snow too earlier? I’m guessing the NAM is off it’s rocker

[CentralNebWeather]

And wasn’t the Canadian also one of the models that was showing a lot of snow too earlier? I’m guessing the NAM is off it’s rocker

Canadian had large amounts of snow several days ago.  Models struggling recently imo.