April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Man, it would seem like everything is always trending warmer and drier. Except when it’s not. Then you basically just don’t mention any model runs for a few days.

 

 

It would seem like everything is always trending colder and wetter if I only looked at your posts.    

 

I would have had no idea how beautiful this past weekend ended up being... under our mythical ridge.    You never mentioned it after the cold and wet troughing fell apart.

 

I guess maybe we all tend to focus on things we find interesting?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 0.19" of rain yesterday. About 0.2" so far today. Not a bad start to April. It would be nice to have normal rainfall the next 2-3 months. Doesn't need to be a washout. 

[Jesse]

06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The nourishing rain of the Lord falling this morning. Warm and wet. A perfect recipe for a ripe green up.

[TT-SEA]

06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs.

 

F19CC0AB-E902-4CE6-9673-D5B88BC8D977.png

 

 

Nice job!

[Jesse]

It would seem like everything is always trending colder and wetter if I only looked at your posts.

 

I would have had no idea how beautiful this past weekend ended up being.

 

I guess maybe we all tend to focus on things we find interesting?

My pictures of the LNF Santiam captured the beautiful weekend pretty well. Although they don’t include a Safeway parking lot so maybe you didn’t find them as interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs.

 

F19CC0AB-E902-4CE6-9673-D5B88BC8D977.png

 

We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average. 

[TT-SEA]

The nourishing rain of the Lord falling this morning. Warm and wet. A perfect recipe for a ripe green up.

 

I am really looking forward to this... going to be a transformation to lush coming soon.

[Jesse]

We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average.

 

Tim will tell!

[Cloud]

There’s like a shield over Seattle-north or something. Last 24 hours, the cloud cover just gets obliterated as it tries to creep this way.

 

The ridge is refusing to give in!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday looks very wet. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim will tell!

 

You know he's going to rub it in!

 

I liked Tim's pics, North Bend is gorgeous. If I made like 350K a year maybe I could afford to live there. The LNF is basically my backyard, enjoyed the pics. It will be at its peak beauty in May and June. The North Fork flowing high and clear after a late spring rain under a drippy rainforest canopy is one of my favorite childhood memories. 

[Jesse]

The LNF is basically my backyard, enjoyed the pics. It will be at its peak beauty in May and June. The North Fork flowing high and clear after a late spring rain under a drippy rainforest canopy is one of my favorite childhood memories.

 

I really like that whole corridor during a normally wet late spring/early summer. The stretch up to Marion Forks looks and feels like fern gully on a misty early June day.

[Cloud]

Sunday looks very wet.

 

Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really like that whole corridor during a normally wet late spring/early summer. The stretch up to Marion Forks looks and feels like fern gully on a misty early June day.

 

There is a nice simple little campground up at Marion Forks. Even during the height of summer it is rarely full. It is a nice base camp for day hikes and fishing. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing.

I think we will end up being alright in the rain department, at some point we’re going to get some soaking rain. I don’t think we will see as much rain this April as last April but I think it should be enough to make up for the dryness recently...atleast I hope it does.

[Cloud]

April 6-7 appears to be nice date last 3 years for some decent. This year will be no exception.

Latest UW-WRF is showing the deep center low closer to the coast and gives PDX a good blow. Still windy in Seattle.

 

This should get K12 going.

 

One thing to note: it has not been consistent, previous runs had shown this being up in BC.

[TT-SEA]

The pattern that is favorable for SW flow and heavy rain does not seem to last very long... here is a week from today on the 12Z GFS.

 

[Cloud]

I think we will end up being alright in the rain department, at some point we’re going to get some soaking rain. I don’t think we will see as much rain this April as last April but I think it should be enough to make up for the dryness recently...atleast I hope it does.

Last April was a soaker so I’m not expecting a repeat. There is also a stark drop off in rain averages between March and April so if we can squeeze out an 1-2” or so this month I’ll be happy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Much of next week looks fairly dry with some troughing late week.

[TT-SEA]

Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing.

 

Still much wetter than the 12Z FV3 for Sunday...

 

[Cloud]

Still much wetter than the 12Z FV3 for Sunday...

 

Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro?

 

I kid.

[TacomaWaWx]

April 6-7 appears to be nice date last 3 years for some decent. This year will be no exception.

Latest UW-WRF is showing the deep center low closer to the coast and gives PDX a good blow. Still windy in Seattle.

 

This should get K12 going.

 

One thing to note: it has not been consistent, previous runs had shown this being up in BC.

Get the feeling it will be windy again on the same day it has the past couple years this year. Still lots of time for the forecast to change. Will be a step under the storms we had on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 if it ends up verifying. It’s interesting that it could be 3 years in a row on the same day that we see similar storms.

[Jesse]

Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro?

 

I kid.

When they better fit a narrative.

[TT-SEA]

Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro?

 

I kid.

 

 

Good point!

 

I just noticed that the FV3 did not agree with the GFS with that rain event on Sunday.    00Z ECMWF was somewhat similar with the main rain band way to the south and just partly sunny with scattered light showers up here.

 

[Cloud]

Get the feeling it will be windy again on the same day it has the past couple years this year. Still lots of time for the forecast to change. Will be a step under the storms we had on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 if it ends up verifying. It’s interesting that it could be 3 years in a row on the same day that we see similar storms.

Per Scott S. the Euro is showing 40-45mph Friday night.

 

Still days out.

[Front Ranger]

We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average. 

 

I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy...

[TT-SEA]

I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy...

 

 

I was going to say the same thing.   

 

I believe we have thrown climo out the window right??   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy...

 

Pretty awesome we managed to beat the odds!

[Front Ranger]

Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing.

 

It almost appears from that map that there's some sort of mountain range to the west causing shadowing.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty awesome we managed to beat the odds!

 

Shades of the 2016 election!

[High Desert Mat?]

Probably wouldn’t be as strong as the winds on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 but it’s something to keep an eye on. Forecast for winds are always tricky and a few miles difference can change the forecast entirely plus it’s 96 hours out still.

It’s baggy.

[Cloud]

It almost appears from that map that there's some sort of mountain range to the west causing shadowing.

It looks like a SW flow? If that’s the case there wouldn’t be any shadowing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Shades of the 2016 election!

 

November 2016

February 2019

 

Most surreal moments of my life right there...

[TT-SEA]

It looks like a SW flow? If that’s the case there wouldn’t be any shadowing.

 

There would still be some.

 

But what the GFS shows is not really even related to shadowing on Sunday... the main moisture plume is just a little too far to the south and east.    In a true shadowing scenario... you would see heavy precip on the Olympic Peninsula as well.

 

[ShawniganLake]

System coming in Thursday is looking slower in recent runs... likely going to be another fairly warm, dry day up here.

I was expecting to get rained out at work on Thursday but now it’s looking like we might end up fairly dry.

 

Seems like this upcoming wet period has been trending a little less impressive here locally

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing to see PDX hasn't received measurable rain yet. Salem is at about 1/2" over the past 24 hours now. 

 

1.09" in Eugene over the past 30 hours. 

[TT-SEA]

Amazing to see PDX hasn't received measurable rain yet. Salem is at about 1/2" over the past 24 hours now. 

 

1.09" in Eugene over the past 30 hours. 

 

Nice!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just tallied my March stats. Overall a slightly cooler than average month and one of the driest on record up here. A VERY cold first half of the month followed by a very warm 2nd half of the month. The first 16 days had sub-freezing lows, but there was only 1 sub-freezing low the rest of the month. 

 

Average Max: 50.1

Average Min:  30.9

Mean: 40.5 (-1.6)

Precip: 2.84" (-6.25)

Snow: 10.9"

[TT-SEA]

Just tallied my March stats. Overall a slightly cooler than average month and one of the driest on record up here. A VERY cold first half of the month followed by a very warm 2nd half of the month. The first 16 days had sub-freezing lows, but there was only 1 sub-freezing low the rest of the month. 

 

Average Max: 50.1

Average Min:  30.9

Mean: 40.5 (-1.6)

Precip: 2.84" (-6.25)

Snow: 10.9"

 

 

The North Bend station was warmer and even drier...

 

Avg Max 56.7

Avg Min 35.0

Mean 45.2

Precip 1.71"

 

They don't measure snow there.

 

8 days with lows below freezing... all before 3/10.     The first 9 days were cold with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s... started warming up on 3/10 with a high of 54.