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4/10 - 4/12 Plains/Upper Midwest Powerhouse Blizzard


Tom

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My confidence is pretty high that there will be a major Spring storm traversing the Plains/Upper MW/GL's region late next week. It's been on the calendar according to the cycling wx pattern and it's likely going to produce one of the highlight storms just like in previous cycles. It's crazy to say, but this system may end becoming yet another Blizzard where this seasons "Blizzard Alley" has set up. Ya'll ready up north? I'm sure some of you have put away your shovels and snow blowers for the season...but if you haven't, you may need them next week.

 

00z Euro...the run-to-run consistency is really intriguing suggesting a wound up Blizzard dumping Feet of snow across NE/SD/S MN into WI. I've also posted the 00z EPS snow mean which is growing every run in terms of amounts and areal coverage.

 

Let's discuss....

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MPX talks about how this storm has some similarities with the monster blizzard that hit on the same day last April. I still don’t fully buy what the Euro is showing, but this cruel joke is becoming less funny with each passing run.

A true grass destroyer in the works.  GFS vs EURO.  South versus north.  Whose side are you on?

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The rule is... If a low is strong and wound up, it will track through Iowa.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Oh my this is gonna be met with criticism. 70s into monday now. Substantial departures

If we hit 70 on Monday and have a foot or more of snow otg by Thursday evening I’m gonna lose it. It took a lot of effort to make sure I didn’t have flooding issues with 20” of snowmelt. I don’t want to have to do it all over again.

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If we hit 70 on Monday and have a foot or more of snow otg by Thursday evening I’m gonna lose it. It took a lot of effort to make sure I didn’t have flooding issues with 20” of snowmelt. I don’t want to have to do it all over again.

we are a long ways away from nailing down Thursday.  Models suck in transition season.  The Euro is definitely snow eye candy but until its inside of 100 or so hours dont emphasis the sensible weather results.  La Crosse is doing that in their right ups consistently

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we are a long ways away from nailing down Thursday.  Models suck in transition season.  The Euro is definitely snow eye candy but until its inside of 100 or so hours dont emphasis the sensible weather results.  La Crosse is doing that in their right ups consistently

The full range of options are on the table for sure. Complete miss, rain, heavy snow. Flip a coin at this point. Until it gains more support from the ensembles it’s all just fun right now. But, it is an interesting system to keep an eye on.

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A true grass destroyer in the works. GFS vs EURO. South versus north. Whose side are you on?

I'll go with the EURO or the north solution. At least I'm hoping that's what will transpire! What do you mean by grass destroyer? Snow is good for grass.

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I'll go with the EURO or the north solution. At least I'm hoping that's what will transpire! What do you mean by grass destroyer? Snow is good for grass.

a foot of snow is not.  snow mold loves snow cover this time of the year especially after initial melt off.  Your yard takes it pretty good.  Bent grass of golf courses not so much

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Yeah, way south with the 12z euro.  The ridge bump ahead of the system has been squashed this run, so instead of slowing, revving up, and cutting into Iowa, it's less strong and shoots due east across Missouri.  850 temp appears to be sub-zero and falling during the event along and north of I-80, so there should be plenty of snow on the euro precip map.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The euro has widespread 70s across the region Monday, then 1+ feet of snow Wednesday.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ryan Maue tweeted a few maps.  You can see the impressive cold feed at 850mb from the southeastern Canada trough.

 

D3aTpwaWAAAnJCJ.png

D3aTq0WX4AIHN9J.png

D3aTsANXoAEYe7G.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Boy, DVN could not be any less enthusiastic about the storm.  Their new discussion says prolonged light to moderate rain, maybe a bit of wet snow at the end.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Well Hastings mentioned a southward shift in today's models; I'm thinking we will continue to see movement back and forth in the next couple of days. Man I love blizzards in all but I must say this 70 degree day feels amazing!

 

The next significant weather system moves into the picture for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The 12Z model suite seems to point at
an overall southward trend. This trend would decrease the threat
for thunderstorms or severe weather on Wednesday...while
increasing the threat for accumulating snow Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. There are a lot of details that still need to be
sorted out, but this has the potential to be bring significant
impacts...especially to northern portions of the forecast area.

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DMX actually somewhat mentions decent chances of snow--- (thats a first) 

 

This cyclogenesis will be rapid
and both the
GFS and Euro have a sub 990mb low across Kansas by
Wednesday. Initially, strong frontogenetical forcing and

isentropic lift will lead to precipitation spreading across Iowa
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, as time proceeds,
strong mid level forcing will enhance the lift with the
precipitation persisting into Wednesday night and Thursday
morning before ending during the day on Thursday. Still plenty
uncertainty in regards to storm track and amount of cold air, but
there still appears a decent potential for some significant snow
accumulations in Iowa by later Wednesday into Thursday. Given the
depth of the system, winds would also be quite strong with the
potential for
blowing snow as well. The blends are still
relatively warm during this time, therefore the mention of rain in
the forecast overshadows the snow, but this will
likely change if
the solutions continue similar to the 12Z runs. Definitely a
system that will be monitored closely over the next several days.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Strong/dynamic nature of this system is working in snow's favor. Fairly decent moisture being advected out of the gulf(as it is april) should yield a fairly impressive amount of moisture being available, at least as far as snow systems in our area go. Not only that, referring back to the dynamic nature of this system, all models are showing impressive lift/forcing in the main axis of precip, such that it actually reminds me of the November blizzard in this way. Furthermore, the strong lift should cool the atmosphere dynamically bringing the possibility of heavy snow into the equation. Not to mention this lift is collocated to the DGZ almost perfectly, but even talking about where the lift is strongest at this range is nearly pointless lol.  Even though this is a super marginal temperature event, because of the overall strength of this system, I DO think someone sees solid snow out of this. 

 

gfs_2019040518_132_42.25--90.5.png

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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