4/10 - 4/12 Plains/Upper Midwest Powerhouse Blizzard

[bud2380]

I know it's way overdone and will never pan out, but it's amazing how run after run and model after model keep painting 48"+ for some areas of SW MN and Eastern SD.  12z NAM showing a spot of 54" on a county bordering Eastern SD and western MN.  And it's basically the same areas run after run showing the heaviest band of snow.  

[Hawkeye]

The NAM has a lot of mixing in MSP.

 

The NAM also drops very little precip from Ames-Cedar Rapids southward.  The euro has 1+" here.

[Tom]

Tom, do you have a total QPF map? Curious what the Euro is showing in that respect. GFS has a soaker around here, but the NAM looks quite different on that front for now.

Here you go...

[Tom]

Michael Ventrice's Deep Thunder model is painting a similar picture as the Euro...

 

[Tom]

12z GFS continues a trend farther S/SW with the track of the SLP with more blocking to the north....last 4 runs below show the trends nicely.  Another noteworthy characteristic from this storm is how deep it gets in KS!  For several runs now, it drops down to a 976mb storm...doesn't that sound familiar???  Could we break another record this month for it's strength???  My goodness the atmosphere is primed.

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Less chance of mixing with these baby steps south on the GFS.

[gabel23]

I'm fine with the south shift now just don't occlude so soon! The storm loses its juice once the Low has swung through my area. I figure since I'm so close to a major blizzard I might as well get into the fun! If not then I guess I'll be back golfing sooner than later! 

[East Dubzz]

Here you go...

Thanks Tom. NAM much less impressive on the rainfall amounts, but still drops 0.50”. This definitely isn’t going to help with the flooding.

[jaster220]

I know it's way overdone and will never pan out, but it's amazing how run after run and model after model keep painting 48"+ for some areas of SW MN and Eastern SD.  12z NAM showing a spot of 54" on a county bordering Eastern SD and western MN.  And it's basically the same areas run after run showing the heaviest band of snow.  

 

I've heard that The Plains is good chasing..

[Snowshoe]

I'm still in a state of disbelief. Took a nice walk at lunch and it's nearly 70^o with bright warm sunshine. Warmest day since...God only knows when. Of course I recall feeling the same way last April right before the thunderstorm changed to over 2 feet of heavy snow.

[St Paul Storm]

I'm still in a state of disbelief. Took a nice walk at lunch and it's nearly 70^o with bright warm sunshine. Warmest day since...God only knows when. Of course I recall feeling the same way last April right before the thunderstorm changed to over 2 feet of heavy snow.

My thoughts exactly. Still not convinced this will pan out as modeled, but if it does it’s gonna be a complete shock to the system.

[gabel23]

Euro almost identical to placement and a tad stronger at hr. 72 as last nights run. 

[St Paul Storm]

Yeah I don’t see any drastic changes on the 12z Euro. Subtle shift in location and intensity but looks steady.

[Stormhunter87]

Full sampling was with this run correct?

[gabel23]

Full sampling was with this run correct?

Full sample should be tomorrow I believe; I think the storm gets onto shore tonight or tomorrow sometime I remember reading. 

[gosaints]

Full sampling was with this run correct?

12z tomorrow

[gabel23]

Wow the recent Euro run actually increased my snow total; it actually doubled it! We will see what will transpire but just another one of those storms where I'll be right on the line. It looks like someone along the SD/Neb. border is gonna get buried by this thing. 

[St Paul Storm]

From Ryan Maue’s tweet. 10:1 ratio.

[bud2380]

Incredible snow projections for any time of year, let alone April on the heels of a big warmup.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

Looking at the point grid forecasts in eastern South Dakota, and I'm seeing lots of 20" forecasts. Most are 10" Wednesday night and 10" more on Thursday.

[Stormgeek]

What are thermals looking like? For this time of year my best guess would be right around 10-1, maybe a bit lower. Either way this is intriguing, but I refuse to bite after we got a cold rainer instead of a snow solution in March.

[St Paul Storm]

What are thermals looking like? For this time of year my best guess would be right around 10-1, maybe a bit lower. Either way this is intriguing, but I refuse to bite after we got a cold rainer instead of a snow solution in March.

850s remain below 32F for the entire event up this way. Plenty of cold air filtering in from Ontario...look at that conveyor belt of cold air. 2m temps are marginal at the start but fall fairly quick. With such a dynamic system and intense rates of 1”/hr or more, this could add up fast. Still plenty of wildcards though. Too many to feel confident in a big snow at this point.

 

I think watches are expanded shortly based on the 12z runs.

 

Meanwhile, 68F on the deck right now. Just got done changing the oil in the.....lawnmower.

[East Dubzz]

Anyone got a precip map on the Euro?

[jcwxguy]

Anyone got a precip map on the Euro?

[Stormhunter87]

12z tomorrow

Roger thanks.

[St Paul Storm]

As currently modeled, this has a chance to be a top 4 April snowstorm on record for MSP. The largest April storm was last year at 15.8”.

[gabel23]

18z develops quiet the band of snow along the highway 81 corridor as the low passes into Iowa. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Winter Storm Watch for my area.

 

..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

 

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of

4 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts and ice accumulations

of one tenth to two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust

as high as 50 to 60 mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Nebraska.

 

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday night.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of

blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The

hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening

commute. Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees and

power lines especially if we see the freezing rain. Road

closures during the height of the storm will be possible.

[St Paul Storm]

Not sure if they made an error or what, but right now there’s 12-20” in the point for Wed night and Thursday. And that’s not the entire storm.

[Stormgeek]

Ummmmm, can someone please explain why my point forecast from the nws has 12-20 in the grids for Wednesday night into Thursday... That seems awful bold, and maybe even irresponsible at this range... I am down for a blockbuster, but I have a hard time seeing that much materialize.

[bud2380]

This is for Marshall, MN.  Good god, 21" in the point forecast.  Wow.  

 

Wednesday

Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely between 1pm and 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches.

Wednesday Night

Rain likely before 10pm, then rain and snow likely between 10pm and 11pm, then snow after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after 1am. Low around 29. Blustery, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 7 inches.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 7am, then areas of blowing snow after 8am. High near 32. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 11 inches

[gosaints]

La crosse taking a cautious approach as they should riding the thermal edge

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings talking ice, blizzard, possible road closures.

 

Wednesday night...The 12/18Z NAM and 12Z ECMWF very quickly cool

our surface temperatures off Wednesday night and seem reasonable.

Therefore, lowered hourly temperatures below the overall

superblend of models to account for these sub-freezing

temperatures to move in more quickly. Assuming this happens we

will see more freezing rain across our northwestern zones and some

ice amounts could climb to over two tenths of an inch. The primary

concern with the ice will be the power lines and trees given the

expected strong winds. It could take many hours and really all

night before the warm nose of air around 700 mb cools enough for

ice to transition into snow across northwestern zones.

Southeastern zones will likely just see rain throughout the

night. Keep up to date on the latest forecast as the storm track

becomes more clear and we can better define the snow/ice/rain

areas.

 

Thursday...The height of the storm will impact the region during

the day on Thursday. Storm track is everything and confidence in

blizzard conditions is highest across our northwest so we started

with a winter storm watch for these areas, but could possibly

expand this watch further south if 12Z ECMWF model trends

continue. This has the potential to be a major blizzard for

portions of Nebraska on Thursday especially northwest of Beaver

City, Kearney, and Saint Paul line. This line will likely shift

some in the coming days depending on the storm track so keep up to

date with the latest forecast. This storm very well could once

again close some roads across Nebraska due to blizzard conditions

on Thursday, so pay attention to www.511.nebraska.gov for the

latest road conditions. The snow will be decreasing by Thursday

night, but windy conditions are expected right into Friday

morning.

 

Friday...The snow will have ended and highs should once again

climb to above freezing but blowing snow may linger in some of the

harder hit areas during the morning hours. Storm total snowfall

amounts of 4 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts will be

possible over the winter storm watch area. Little if any snow is

expected across our southeastern zones around Beloit.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Here's Mitchell, SD point forecast: 21 inches

 

Wednesday Night

Rain before 8pm, then rain and snow between 8pm and 11pm, then snow after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Low around 30. Windy, with a northeast wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 9 inches.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly between 10am and 3pm. High near 32. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 12 inches.

[jcwxguy]

My in-laws live in delmont, SD. Point forecast is 20" there

[Niko]

This is nuts. My local grid is calling for 1-3" or more of wet snow Wednesday nite w temps at 32F. So much for having my grass fertilized.

[CentralNebWeather]

Already many school activities being moved up from Thursday to beat the storm. Our school had track, soccer, tennis, and golf scheduled for Thursday. Crazy winter/spring.

[St Paul Storm]

Stellar write up by MPX this afternoon. They’re going with 7-15” for now with gusts up to 50mph. Gotta love April blizzards.

[gosaints]

Interesting how moist the thing is looking even not the warmer areas.

 

I don't envy la crosse in this forecast. They are gonna have a tough one barring any further jog south which would seem unlikely given climo

[East Dubzz]

18z GFS dropping over 3” of rain here haha. I’d assume that’s the most aggressive model.