3/22 - 3/27 | Severe Storms | First widespread potential of 2023

[Iceresistance]

It all starts today with @Clinton in/just outside the Marginal risk for today.

 

Tomorrow is when things start to get crazy for me, @Black Hole, @OKwx2k4, and possibly @Andie.

 

But Friday is when things can get REALLY Nasty in Dixie Alley.

[Iceresistance]

DP is 62°F right now

[Black Hole]

Proximity soundings seem to indicate all hazards are possible but hail will clearly be favored. I see the SPC is noting the same thing in their outlook. Plenty of moisture in place this time with good CAPE and lift. Most of the shear is above 3 km. 

Training storms will eventually turn this to a flood risk. Could be a few inches somewhere nearby. Should be a fun storm. 

[Andie]

8 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

It all starts today with @Clinton in/just outside the Marginal risk for today.

 

Tomorrow is when things start to get crazy for me, @Black Hole, @OKwx2k4, and possibly @Andie.

 

But Friday is when things can get REALLY Nasty in Dixie Alley.

We’re as ready as we can get.  
Hoping we don’t see large hail in W. Ft Worth.  Tornados tend to avoid my area but anything is possible.  
The rain will be welcomed however.  

[Iceresistance]

The HRRR needs to stop being scary!

[Andie]

Partly Cloudy this afternoon. 82*. 
Humid at 53%
Wind 19 but blustery and likely to grow worse.  
We may see some thunderstorms between 4am and 10 am. 

[OKwx2k4]

Flood warnings up and T-storm knocking at the door. Going back in time, the GFS knew the pattern but was early by 5 days. That's pretty impressive.

[Andie]

I may see some rain before 6am.  
Unfortunately, it won’t be a great deal.   

[Black Hole]

Ended up with 3.29" of rain yesterday! So far another .04" this morning but more coming in...I'll probably get my 24 hour total above 3.50". 

[Iceresistance]

I got 3.1 inches, I did have a brief hailstorm of peas.

 

Now, it's time to focus on Dixie Alley, nasty outbreak.

[Anti Marine Layer]

The spring tornado season is upon us.

[Black Hole]

It was fun just getting wave after wave of storms yesterday and this morning. Looks like it was less fun for MS today with the destructive tornadoes. 

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, Black Hole said:

It was fun just getting wave after wave of storms yesterday and this morning. Looks like it was less fun for MS today with the destructive tornadoes. 

At least 21 dead in Mississippi very sad news.  They have had it rough since last fall.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

At least 21 dead in Mississippi very sad news.  They have had it rough since last fall.

23 now, and that tornado was a monster

[Iceresistance]

They're saying 2-3 tornadoes, the one in Rolling Fork, MS.

The 2nd one in Winona is questionable if it was part of the Rolling Fork, MS tornado or if it's a separate one altogether.

 

And the one in Amory, MS was nasty.

[Stormy]

Some research has been done as to why there are more tornado deaths in Dixie, though I'm not sure if it's been proven that those tornadoes are in fact stronger in general or if it's also because their houses aren't as well built, since they have mild winters. Probably a combination of both, and there's definitely a major tornado alley down there. 

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Some research has been done as to why there are more tornado deaths in Dixie, though I'm not sure if it's been proven that those tornadoes are in fact stronger in general or if it's also because their houses aren't as well built, since they have mild winters. Probably a combination of both, and there's definitely a major tornado alley down there. 

The tornadoes are also faster down there too.

[Stormy]

Just now, Iceresistance said:

The tornadoes are also faster down there too.

Yeah, seems like they're often fast movers. 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Sparky said:

Yeah, seems like they're often fast movers. 

The average forward motion is 50-65 mph. Less time to react.

[Stormy]

4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The average forward motion is 50-65 mph. Less time to react.

Often at night too, but also lower visibilities because of trees, and especially because of low storm bases and haze being other factors. 

[Black Hole]

To add to what others have said, many of the tornadoes down there are rain wrapped so they are harder to see. 

[Stormy]

On 3/25/2023 at 11:29 PM, Black Hole said:

To add to what others have said, many of the tornadoes down there are rain wrapped so they are harder to see. 

Yes, hp supercells.