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Spring & Summer 2023 Outlook & Discussion


Tom

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Spring is finally here and the seasons are certainly changing as Ol' Man Winter begins to fade away, albeit, prob to slow for those members up north and east.  It's time to bring warmer weather into the picture and lighten up the mood as they say.  Is there warmer weather on the horizon?  What will this year's warm season bring?  Some say that with a developing El Nino summers are typically wet and cool for most of the central CONUS and the bread basket of the nation.  I'd love to see a banner growing season for our farmers and lack of any droughts.  Thoughts?

 

Let's discuss the various short term model data....

The latest JMA weeklies suggest as we flip the calendar into April we continue to see a similar theme that has dominated the pattern since last Fall....trough in the west and a SER....I do believe there is a window of real Spring warmth surging north as we open up APR, but how far is TBD.  Does it last?

 

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Week 3-4...I see a good signal for a SW Ridge not only from the JMA, but the CFSv2 is also suggesting that by Easter week it could really begin to warm up around the SW and give Cali and the Intermountain West a chance to dry out.

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The JMA seasonal showing a slow start to Spring for many up north, but the S Plains and SW should warm up nicely.  @Clinton @CentralNebWeather and NE/KC peeps should like the look of the opening 7-10 days of APR. 

April...


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May...early summer warmth for the C & S Plains??  That drought area over W TX and into W KS is a concern for our farmers.  The latest drought monitor is not good.

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June...The Heat could really build for the western SUB..."Ring of Fire" pattern is on my mind for the MW and parts of the High Plains.  If you are considering going on a trip out west to visit any of the National Parks, I think this month will be awesome as Yosemite among others will be beautiful.  I can see the rivers and waterfalls flowing and raging! 

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

The JMA seasonal showing a slow start to Spring for many up north, but the S Plains and SW should warm up nicely.  @Clinton @CentralNebWeather and NE/KC peeps should like the look of the opening 7-10 days of APR. 

April...


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May...early summer warmth for the C & S Plains??  That drought area over W TX and into W KS is a concern for our farmers.  The latest drought monitor is not good.

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June...The Heat could really build for the western SUB..."Ring of Fire" pattern is on my mind for the MW and parts of the High Plains.  If you are considering going on a trip out west to visit any of the National Parks, I think this month will be awesome as Yosemite among others will be beautiful.  I can see the rivers and waterfalls flowing and raging! 

 

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Had a decent winter around here (nothing like the Northern Nebraska Glacier), probably will end up close to normal snow wise and a little ahead in the total precipitation.  The problem is we went in so dry, that it is tough to break the extent of the drought that we have been experiencing.  Also, we have missed out on many rain or snow systems in the last few weeks, so the drought hasn't improved in my area.  Hopefully Enso Neutral to El Nino conditions begin to show up, those seem to be the most beneficial to our area.  

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I'd by lying to you if I wasn't to say that I'm tickled with excitement the way think things will transpire out here in the Desert SW and Intermountain West for the Spring and Summer season.  Not only do I believe in shorter weather cycles like the LRC, but longer term cycles exist, and what has changed out here in the SW since really the 2021 Monsoon season till now is a longer term cycle that has begun.  The moon, the sun and all celestial bodies have a direct effect on our planet and as we dig deeper into cyclical patterns, it is my personal opinion that the SW region will continue to be an important grow region.  I do not see any longer term droughts developing in the near future. 

For this reason, many big players have been scooping up farmland.  You have to wonder...why?  The one who controls the food and water, controls the masses.  Something to think about.

For weeks the CFSv2 hasn't really changed much and shows a nation with a lot of precip....

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image.gifWe will most likely see a "pool of cool" establishing over the center of the Nation and most likely a BN temp regime in the 4 corners.

 

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From Bastardi on the upcoming severe threats.

Next 10-15 day ripe for More Tornadoes in the southeast

The signature temperature pattern for a big tornado season is cold to the northwest and warm to the southeast.

March so far

cdas_all_conus_tmp2m_anom_mtd_back_97240

Tornadoes

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The severe weather event yesterday was well advertised on modeling. But with the gulf this warm

 

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and 2 more major troughs. bisecting the resisting ridge and the anomalous cold

March 30

 

gfs_deterministic_conus_z500_anom_027480

 

and April 4th

gfs_deterministic_conus_z500_anom_058800

 

 

this is big trouble

 

this was the set up or yesterday and last night

gfs_deterministic_conus_z500_anom_970240

 

 

 

we may be able to get rid of this after the April 4 outbreak as cold. settles into the southeast and shuts down the natural bounady

gfs_deterministic_conus_t2m_f_anom_7day_

 

But this pattern is ugly with 2 more major threats likely lurking before Easter.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The Gulf is looking real warm. Come July it’ll be ripe for TS or Hurricanes.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Also. 
How does fire season look?  Not just out west but Mideast.   Texas is looking very dry and we have had serious fires throughout the state during these conditions.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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7 hours ago, Madtown said:

^so what your saying is snow in May😀

I just met somebody at the pool today that is visiting from N Wisco, not far from your place and he was saying how long this winter has been.  He said he hasn't seen grass since Nov sometime.  He also complained how your region up north doesn't have any real Spring wx anymore and go from Winter to Summer, but have real nice Summer and Autumns of late. 

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High 70’s/Low 80’s for the next 2 weeks. Only 1 sad chance for rain - 20%.  
Here that means clouds and tough luck!  

Man! We need rain!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Just enjoyed an awesome early taste of summer ☀️ and warm temps all week! Wishing everyone a great spring season. May is my fave month if you didn't know.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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20 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Just enjoyed an awesome early taste of summer ☀️ and warm temps all week! Wishing everyone a great spring season. May is my fave month if you didn't know.

The JMA seasonal just came in today and mirrors the CFSv2...

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The start of MET Summer appears to be rather seasonal across the board...

June...

 

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Temp and Precip...

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July...while there will be Heat waves this summer, they don't appear to be locked for any long period of time.  

 

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Temp and Precip...

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Definite change of the weather pattern coming up. Sunday-Thursday looks pretty wet for the area, and possibly longer than that, as that upper-level low sets up over the northern Plains. Still no rain this month for me, but that will be changing. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Overall, the Euro Weeklies from yesterday pretty much on the same page as the rest of the Global Models and suggesting a large part of the CONUS to be seasonal to BN (esp southern U.S.) throughout the month of May.  Nice looking wet signal for the drought stricken regions of the central Plains.

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I got a good feeling that by year's end (maybe even the start of Fall), that Nature will yet again prove that Droughts will end, just like cycles start and end, the central Plains will experience a very wet Summer and Autumn this year.  Nature destroyed the drought in the west and SW and it's about to do the same starting in May.  I'm digging what I'm seeing.

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  • 2 weeks later...
14 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Good stuff Tom!!! That would be exactly what the doctor ordered for the drought stricken areas! 

Nature has a magical way of balancing things out...even when your on the extreme end of things (speaking in terms of drought) it can turn on a dime!  Just like it did out here in the desert SW a couple years ago, nature blessed the region with moisture and especially last Autumn & Winter.  

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Accuweather's take is a lot different and expects more Heat than Cool across the Heartland...I am in agreement of the active Wx across the MW/Upper MW.  I much anticipate to see "Ridge Rider's" and what could turn out to be a big season for long duration Derecho's.

 

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I am really craving an active, wet summer.  The triple la nina brought drought and boredom.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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16 hours ago, Tom said:

Accuweather's take is a lot different and expects more Heat than Cool across the Heartland...I am in agreement of the active Wx across the MW/Upper MW.  I much anticipate to see "Ridge Rider's" and what could turn out to be a big season for long duration Derecho's.

 

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I'm hoping that there is plenty of drought busting action this late spring and summer where it is needed badly. Farmers need some great seasons after the last few years. 

Also, I kind of fall in the camp of seeing the ridge shift south and west with time as summer rolls by. There's the very real possibility I'm seeing bias due to shoulder season patterns, which I'm notoriously bad at. Lol. 

The developing Niño with it's far east base is affecting weather in the tropics already and in TX/OKs sudden transformation to a wetter pattern over the next 2 weeks. It's in direct conflict with a cold pdo signature so will be neat to see it all play out. If the pdo can flip fast enough to positive, my logic says the early central CONUS ridges will shift westward. It may very well never fully shift warm at all, too. 

Interesting weather ahead. I like it.

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On 5/3/2023 at 8:54 AM, Hawkeye said:

I am really craving an active, wet summer.  The triple la nina brought drought and boredom.

Since 2012 theres been so few truly wet summers.. Just a few wetter than average  months here.   Local flooding here has become almost  nill with  the one exception  of june 2021 which  was very isolated. Oddly after near  to above avg precip sept 15 to march 15th we are right back into the deficits JUST WHEN WE DONT NEED THEM, the growing season. So little  runoff for years now many ponds seem to never return  to full levels. This week 5 straight wall to wall sunshine days! Low humidity  and lets not forget the pathetic  wind of monday and tues. Tough place here for plants.

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17 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Since 2012 theres been so few truly wet summers.. Just a few wetter than average  months here.   Local flooding here has become almost  nill with  the one exception  of june 2021 which  was very isolated. Oddly after near  to above avg precip sept 15 to march 15th we are right back into the deficits JUST WHEN WE DONT NEED THEM, the growing season. So little  runoff for years now many ponds seem to never return  to full levels. This week 5 straight wall to wall sunshine days! Low humidity  and lets not forget the pathetic  wind of monday and tues. Tough place here for plants.

If you think Iowa has bad growing conditions you haven't lived in the plains yet! There, temperature extremes are yet worse and they have been extremely dry for awhile now. In south central KS they had recent cold low temps as cold or colder than here despite a further south latitude, and they also have had many much warmer days so they're further ahead. And in central Nebraska where my sister recently moved to they are finding out it's not as great as they expected. The recent high winds with blowing sand and dust  likely somehow destroyed their recently planted crops! 😧 Doubt that's ever happened here except maybe during the dust bowl era of the '30s, which was even worse in the plains. And last year their crops also did poorly probably because of trying to farm organically and being new to the area? Total crop failures are unusual in Iowa except on bottom land along rivers from flooding. 

The good thing is they can replant as it's still early in the season. The crop that was damaged was hay with a cover crop of oats though it's plenty late for decent oat yields if that's what was planted.(Once oats is harvested the hay will take over.)

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The Euro Seasonal came in this week and when I first glanced at it I said to myself "Who was it that said...Year without a Summer?"  If anyone lives near the GL's, I'm concerned that "real summer" like we have had the past few seasons don't look likely this year.  Nearly every global model is depicting a trough centered over this region and the MG ag belt.  Cool Canadian air anyone???  As long as its sunny and you can enjoy those beautiful cool mornings and make a bon fire at night, it'll feel just right!

The Tropical threat down along the FL/SE coast is a concern and near TX..."GOM Trouble" is a high concern for cyclones this year.   Higher than normal I'm afraid as the LRC had several systems that formed out of the Gulf region.

 

I don't necessarily agree with the dry signal for the 4 corners region...the CFSv2 has a better idea on a little wetter pattern...

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

The Euro Seasonal came in this week and when I first glanced at it I said to myself "Who was it that said...Year without a Summer?"  If anyone lives near the GL's, I'm concerned that "real summer" like we have had the past few seasons don't look likely this year.  Nearly every global model is depicting a trough centered over this region and the MG ag belt.  Cool Canadian air anyone???  As long as its sunny and you can enjoy those beautiful cool mornings and make a bon fire at night, it'll feel just right!

The Tropical threat down along the FL/SE coast is a concern and near TX..."GOM Trouble" is a high concern for cyclones this year.   Higher than normal I'm afraid as the LRC had several systems that formed out of the Gulf region.

 

I don't necessarily agree with the dry signal for the 4 corners region...the CFSv2 has a better idea on a little wetter pattern...

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Looks like a nonsoon

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

The Euro Seasonal came in this week and when I first glanced at it I said to myself "Who was it that said...Year without a Summer?"  If anyone lives near the GL's, I'm concerned that "real summer" like we have had the past few seasons don't look likely this year.  Nearly every global model is depicting a trough centered over this region and the MG ag belt.  Cool Canadian air anyone???  As long as its sunny and you can enjoy those beautiful cool mornings and make a bon fire at night, it'll feel just right!

The Tropical threat down along the FL/SE coast is a concern and near TX..."GOM Trouble" is a high concern for cyclones this year.   Higher than normal I'm afraid as the LRC had several systems that formed out of the Gulf region.

 

I don't necessarily agree with the dry signal for the 4 corners region...the CFSv2 has a better idea on a little wetter pattern...

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"Year Without A Summer" guy would be me, Tom. Lol. This actually aligns very very well with my ideas going forward. The central ridge look in place now being transient, with an eventual anchor-point southwest as summer goes. 

The ENSO/PDO/Arctic domains are critical for the next 3 months.

What may ultimately set up is a compromise, though. Resulting in persistence in the "dust bowl" region already experiencing drought conditions. It really depends largely on how fast the pac jet gets rolling later in the season, imo.

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On 5/3/2023 at 6:17 AM, Tom said:

Accuweather's take is a lot different and expects more Heat than Cool across the Heartland...I am in agreement of the active Wx across the MW/Upper MW.  I much anticipate to see "Ridge Rider's" and what could turn out to be a big season for long duration Derecho's.

 

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Coolifornia

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I can believe a wetter June in parts of Texas with a La Niña in the wings.  DFW is on the eastern edge of your graphic but I’ll bet Ft Worth gets into the action.   
Rain expected here after 3pm  High near 90*.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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