Madtown Posted April 23, 2019 Report Share Posted April 23, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 23, 2019 Report Share Posted April 23, 2019 This can’t be real can it? https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019042318&fh=90 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 Climate change is heating up the poles the fastest and that displaced cold air has to go somewhere. Just ask Richard Mann. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 Euro really interesting...... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 Correct me if I’m wrong but I’m pretty sure the models do not take into account the sun angle, ground temps, etc. so while the thermals might support snow, there are a lot of other factors the would prohibit accumulations like the Euro is showing. MPX says no accumulations except way north:Forecast soundings continue to showenough cooling in the column for snow to possibly mix in with therain at times, especially Saturday morning when surfacetemperatures will be coldest. Can not rule out a few tenths of aninch of slushy accumulation during this time from the Mille Lacsareas into northwest Wisconsin, but no accumulation is expectedelsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 I think your right. But I could still see an inch or two on grassy areas if it comes down hard enough.... Also- read their discussion from yesterday PM-- and this was from before the EURO went bonkers. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 00z EPS grew in the snow coverage from last nights run...the model sniffed out this wintry look about a week ago and hense the reason I thought we were not done with the snow. Believe it or not, this may not be the last as we head into May! Crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 Now in NAM range and of course it bombs the metro. Why wouldn’t it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 Now in NAM range and of course it bombs the metro. Why wouldn’t it?I have have a foot in May before, but this set up does not look at all like that one atmospherically Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 May 2nd-3rd 2013- DSM = 6.7" 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 I have have a foot in May before, but this set up does not look at all like that one atmospherically12z Euro slams your backyard. Rochester/ LaCrosse jackpot. Enjoy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 I can't imagine MSP discounts this potential event as much as the AM disco did with the new package. The EURO is likely wrong with amounts ( sun angle/ warm ground) but the grassy area should get white as should official snow measuring snow boards... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 Headed to the Northwoods Fri...See if i can go 3 trips three storms in 2019! Looks south atm though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 this will lock in at about 11pm friday night 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 It is a very nice spring day out today but that said this is from this afternoons GRR discussion. I do not think it will happen but we shall see. PERHAPS IT IS TIME TO START GETTING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RISK OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A NUDGE/TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE SFC LOW IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE, 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BACK SOUTH AGAIN AND NOW SUGGEST A DECENT RISK FOR A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR. THE AIR CERTAINLY LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT, AS DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S WILL AID IN EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THERE IS SOLID HALF INCH OR MORE OF QPF WITH THIS CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM, THE BULK OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT NIGHT WHEN LATE SEASON SNOW EVENTS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 I need to mulch some of last Fall’s remaining leaves and plant my garden on Saturday. So....yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 May 2nd-3rd 2013- DSM = 6.7" May 2013 was another level for sure. Down to Fayetteville, Arkansas and surrounding areas recieved 1-3”, first May snow in history. I was still in NW MS at the time and remember having low 40s and heavy rain in the middle of the afternoon and frost the next morning, May might as well be summer in that area. And of course the Omaha/Lincoln areas recieved 2-4” of wet snow. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 MPX showing a bit more concern, but still not impressed with potential accumulations. Pretty wise decision at this point. Things gotta line up almost perfectly to get too concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 This seems plausible... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 To all the nay-sayers. SMI just north of Detroit saw 18" amounts with the 4/25/05 storm. Stuff can happen. That was a rather localized jackpot due to help off of Lk Huron, but I remember news images of widespread 8" depths OTG the following morning. I still hate that storm as it ruined all the flowering trees that were in their peak colors here in Marshall. No thanks to a repeat! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 To all the nay-sayers. SMI just north of Detroit saw 18" amounts with the 4/25/05 storm. Stuff can happen. That was a rather localized jackpot due to help off of Lk Huron, but I remember news images of widespread 8" depths OTG the following morning. I still hate that storm as it ruined all the flowering trees that were in their peak colors here in Marshall. No thanks to a repeat!oh it could easily happen. Just pointed out that thermals looked better at this range on our last may storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 Euro continues..... also this includes a potential sneaky system for Monday.. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 I hear some local Mets are pulling their hair out having to put the “S” word into the forecast. ORD needs less than 3” to crack 50”. Let’s see if there is a subtle shift south. EPS snow mean is very close. Won’t take much. Those who do get the snow, I’d lay down the fertilizer bc certainkg will help to green up the grass. I witnessed the difference after the snow a couple weeks ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 Euro continues..... also this includes a potential sneaky system for Monday..ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-126-C-kucheratot_2019042500_whitecounty.png 2" line thru mby. That's about right. It will cease it's south trends now, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 12z euro shifted south, clobbers northeast Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 If the above happens, I will drive to northern Iowa Saturday to witness this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 I haven't paid a lot of attention to this. It was 85 on Sunday lol. How's the track looking on some of the other models? Euro is sagging south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 wow...cant believe I'm gonna miss this one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 Only way I am okay with this is if it drops a foot. Otherwise, no thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 Geez maybe Waterloo has a chance at setting the record yet. Only need 3 tenths Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfweather Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 Geez maybe Waterloo has a chance at setting the record yet. Only need 3 tenthsI think only 2tenths. Waterloo updated their snowfall from that “dusting” a few weeks ago. They added a tenth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfweather Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 Oh and 5/10/90 SE WI had 3-8 inches of snow- I was in high school and remember that snow day! Lol! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 I think only 2tenths. Waterloo updated their snowfall from that “dusting” a few weeks ago. They added a tenthSaw that on Schnack's forecast tonight. He has basically T-3" highway 20 on north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2019 mkx going with 4-8" here...saying rates will trump all like 2 weekends ago when Racine area got 8+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 26, 2019 Report Share Posted April 26, 2019 MKE saying they might have to issue a WSW with this Nam shifted more north this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 26, 2019 Report Share Posted April 26, 2019 3k NAM has shifted even farther south in Iowa, has heavy snow in Waterloo and Dubuque.... even brings some decent snow down to Cedar Rapids briefly. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 26, 2019 Report Share Posted April 26, 2019 "Climo? Never heard of him." -Every storm over the past couple months. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 26, 2019 Report Share Posted April 26, 2019 "Climo? Never heard of him." -Every storm over the past couple months. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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