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What the #$%^?!?! April 26th-28th snow event.


Madtown

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Correct me if I’m wrong but I’m pretty sure the models do not take into account the sun angle, ground temps, etc. so while the thermals might support snow, there are a lot of other factors the would prohibit accumulations like the Euro is showing.

 

MPX says no accumulations except way north:

Forecast soundings continue to show

enough cooling in the column for snow to possibly mix in with the

rain at times, especially Saturday morning when surface

temperatures will be coldest. Can not rule out a few tenths of an

inch of slushy accumulation during this time from the Mille Lacs

areas into northwest Wisconsin, but no accumulation is expected

elsewhere.

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I think your right. But I could still see an inch or two on grassy areas if it comes down hard enough.... Also- read their discussion from yesterday PM-- and this was from before the EURO went bonkers.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z EPS grew in the snow coverage from last nights run...the model sniffed out this wintry look about a week ago and hense the reason I thought we were not done with the snow.  Believe it or not, this may not be the last as we head into May!  Crazy.

 

 

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I can't imagine MSP discounts this potential event as much as the AM disco did with the new package. The EURO is likely wrong with amounts ( sun angle/ warm ground) but the grassy area should get white as should official snow measuring snow boards...

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It is a very nice spring day out today but that said this is from this afternoons GRR discussion. I do not think it will happen but we shall see.  

 
PERHAPS IT IS TIME TO START GETTING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RISK  
OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A NUDGE/TREND  
NORTHWARD WITH THE SFC LOW IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE, 12Z GUIDANCE HAS  
TRENDED BACK SOUTH AGAIN AND NOW SUGGEST A DECENT RISK FOR A SWATH  
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR. THE AIR CERTAINLY  
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT, AS DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOW  
30S WILL AID IN EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THERE IS SOLID HALF INCH OR  
MORE OF QPF WITH THIS CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM, THE BULK OF WHICH IS  
EXPECTED TO FALL AT NIGHT WHEN LATE SEASON SNOW EVENTS HAVE A  
BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS

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May 2nd-3rd 2013- DSM = 6.7"

 

May 2013 was another level for sure. Down to Fayetteville, Arkansas and surrounding areas recieved 1-3”, first May snow in history. I was still in NW MS at the time and remember having low 40s and heavy rain in the middle of the afternoon and frost the next morning, May might as well be summer in that area. And of course the Omaha/Lincoln areas recieved 2-4” of wet snow.
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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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To all the nay-sayers. SMI just north of Detroit saw 18" amounts with the 4/25/05 storm. Stuff can happen. That was a rather localized jackpot due to help off of Lk Huron, but I remember news images of widespread 8" depths OTG the following morning. I still hate that storm as it ruined all the flowering trees that were in their peak colors here in Marshall. No thanks to a repeat!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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To all the nay-sayers. SMI just north of Detroit saw 18" amounts with the 4/25/05 storm. Stuff can happen. That was a rather localized jackpot due to help off of Lk Huron, but I remember news images of widespread 8" depths OTG the following morning. I still hate that storm as it ruined all the flowering trees that were in their peak colors here in Marshall. No thanks to a repeat!

oh it could easily happen. Just pointed out that thermals looked better at this range on our last may storm

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I hear some local Mets are pulling their hair out having to put the “S” word into the forecast. ORD needs less than 3” to crack 50”. Let’s see if there is a subtle shift south. EPS snow mean is very close. Won’t take much. Those who do get the snow, I’d lay down the fertilizer bc certainkg will help to green up the grass. I witnessed the difference after the snow a couple weeks ago.

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Euro continues..... also this includes a potential sneaky system for Monday..attachicon.gifecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-126-C-kucheratot_2019042500_whitecounty.png

 

2" line thru mby. That's about right. It will cease it's south trends now, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3k NAM has shifted even farther south in Iowa, has heavy snow in Waterloo and Dubuque.... even brings some decent snow down to Cedar Rapids briefly.

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_45.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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"Climo? Never heard of him."

 

-Every storm over the past couple months.

 

:lol:  :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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