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May 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I saw it form about 2 miles to my nne. Almost front porch viewing!! It stayed on the ground for around 10 minutes or more before lifting! A storm chaser drove by just before it formed and I heard ambulance or emergency vehicl sirens. I hope no one was hurt!

We have a family gathering this evening and still have chores to do.

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I can't believe how many supercells took almost the same exact path past my place the last few years! At least the fourth one now that was crazy close and the first one with a nearby tornado!!Last year I saw that Ia county tornado just a bit, but it was so far off and that cell took a different path.

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Here are a couple of pictures of the storm before & during the time it was tornadic. Don't have time to edit them now and couldn't tell which are better when I uploaded them.

IMG-3797.jpg

 

IMG-3799.jpg

 

IMG-3805.jpg

 

IMG-3816.jpg

 

IMG-3821.jpg

 

IMG-3822.jpg

 

IMG-3825.jpg

 

IMG-3833.jpg

Great pics! One day I’d like to witness a tornado from a distance. Glad to see it was far enough away but close enough to see nature’s fury. I bet you had goosebumps watching this storm form.

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Earlier this evening, a storm developed over Cedar Rapids. I got 0.05" of rain in just about 2 minutes. It was an intense, but brief downpour. The sun briefly came out afterwards but more clouds moved back in. 

 

Looks like on radar more thunderstorms are forming in southwest Iowa and northern Missouri moving northeast, so we should get some additional showers and storms tonight. 

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Earlier this evening, a storm developed over Cedar Rapids. I got 0.05" of rain in just about 2 minutes. It was an intense, but brief downpour. The sun briefly came out afterwards but more clouds moved back in.

 

Looks like on radar more thunderstorms are forming in southwest Iowa and northern Missouri moving northeast, so we should get some additional showers and storms tonight.

Was hoping to see something come of that.

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My goodness have you had it bad this year. Holy smokes. I thought last May was nasty during the 1st half but this month has been relentlessly bad up north. Might as well set some new...record? This year could very well be an extremely short growing season.

 

Here in Marshall, I was noticing we still have a scattering of spring flowering trees in bloom. In my 17 yrs here, I cannot remember them still blooming at MDW. Often, they're done in April when we get our normal warmth. The latest is usually first 1/3 of May. I would call this record late, even later than 2014. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR headline:   

Showers and Thunderstorms...Again

 

:rolleyes:  You know its getting old when even NWS is tired of it

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This storm didn’t seem to wild and I’m usually more afraid of the lightning. I’m probably not afraid enough and didn’t get any goosebumps. It would’ve been awesome to get a time lapse of the storm as you could see the whole mesocyclone rotating! The best tornado I’ve ever seen passing by here! There was some damage,but thankfully not devastating that I know of yet.

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It appears Cedar Rapids will remain dry tonight... and quite possibly through the weekend..

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Good morning all, hope everyone on here can enjoy this Memorial Day weekend with family and friends.  Whether your firing up the grill and cooking up some BBQ, heading to the beach or just chillaxin' on the deck...have a safe and relaxing weekend.  I'm heading up to the high country again to Payson, AZ to tackle another hike and then probably settle down at a picnic area just up the road climbing to the Mogollon Rim where there are a couple lakes.  The smell of the pines is amazing up that way and the weather will be noticeable cooler for the time of year.  Only supposed to be in the mid 60's with sunny skies.

 

Let's not forget all of our veterans who have served and are currently serving our wonderful armed forces across the Globe.  #Memorial Day

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Other than a few showers earlier this afternoon, it is a pretty decent Saturday afternoon weatherwise w temps in the 70s. It feels a tad humid. First time this season I am using this word for my area.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here are a couple of pictures of the storm before & during the time it was tornadic. Don't have time to edit them now and couldn't tell which are better when I uploaded them.

IMG-3797.jpg

 

IMG-3799.jpg

 

IMG-3805.jpg

 

IMG-3816.jpg

 

IMG-3821.jpg

 

IMG-3822.jpg

 

IMG-3825.jpg

 

IMG-3833.jpg

Nice!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nicely done Sparky! Figure'd you'd be on it as it was down by Kalona. Was that your first? I'll add my little chase account in the next post. The reason I always post chase accounts here last is because uploading images to this site is a massive, massive PITA. The site is very picky about which images it likes and which it doesn't for some reason.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Friday was a rather challenging forecast, at least for me. What made it difficult was that the warm front had similar parameters from Kankakee all the way towards the East Central Iowa triple point. I had originally targeted Rock Island as models had honed in on initiation along the MS river this morning, and had generally held on to that idea through the early afternoon, so off I went to the Quad Cities, after stumbling around there for a few hours, and winding up in some shadier areas of Rock Island, I found a safe spot to check obs. It became evident that the Quad Cities was no longer the place to be and that the triple point in East Central Iowa was looking increasingly favored over IL, particularly noting the extreme levels of 0-3km CAPE(200-250 J/kg), rich mid 70s dewpoints and the fact that it had been sunny in Iowa the whole day, whereas IL had a late morning MCS and midday supercell. Not to mention that a fairly robust patch of cumulus was evident on visible satellite out in Iowa. After seeing that Iowa was clearly becoming the favored target area, I turned back the way I came, minus one tank of gas lol. 

 

Eventually posted up in Williamsburg and watched several towers to the south struggle. After about an hour and a half of watching towers go up and back down on themselves, I became increasingly concerned with the possibility of a cap bust, as subsidence was really putting a hamper on these updrafts, and seemingly winning for the time being.

 

H7ptUTK.png

 

A lone storm finally became established at about 5:45pm and slowly began to acquire supercell characteristics. Core punched through perhaps the lamest core ever(heavy rain and pea size hail -- zzzzzz) but was greeted with a nice, broadly rotating wall cloud, but updraft base was still pretty anemic otherwise. This storm would fight for its life during its entire existence. 

 

eXY9q15.png

 

This wall cloud would persist and evolve with several RFD pushes failing to get the job done. I continued to follow the storm east, and the low-level rotation was getting more and more defined with each successive push of the RFD, but still had a long ways to go. As this supercell approached the warm front, it rapidly got its act together and picked up a tornado warning. Not 10 minutes later, a barrel-shaped tornado dropped below the world's most anemic base, which allowed for some spectacular lighting, to be fair. I'm almost certain that the extra vorticity on the warm front and 225 J/kg of 0-3km CAPE are reasons this storm was able to produce such a formidable tornado despite the storm struggling to maintain a consistently strong updraft.

 

kURAfLf.png

 

1iWjHBc.png

 

https://youtu.be/5zVLRH_qMis

(Music is because I totally botched the real audio -- with radio, some tornado tourettes and talking to other chasers, so I just canned and replaced it with some music.)

 

After this tornado occluded over Iowa City, the storm slowly started to succumb to the subsidence as it never regained anything really resembling a healthy updraft base after this tornado. I followed it towards West Branch before letting it go and heading back to Cedar Rapids. This storm went up, produced a significant tornado and died in under 2 hours, that is the part that surprises me. This wasn't a dominant, robust supercell, this was a supercell that did nothing but fight to stay alive as long as it could, which happened to be just long enough that it was able to produce the most impressive single tornado that I've seen so far. What a fantastic way to start off my 2019 chase season!

 

DvuoEAp.png

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Nicely done Sparky! Figure'd you'd be on it as it was down by Kalona. Was that your first? I'll add my little chase account in the next post. The reason I always post chase accounts here last is because uploading images to this site is a massive, massive PITA. The site is very picky about which images it likes and which it doesn't for some reason.

Thank you.... Actually I didn’t chase it went right past where I live! If it would’ve dropped sooner it would’ve passed just under 1 mile nw of me! You probably drove right past my place! Some of those photos you posted were when you were driving up highway 1 as I recognize that area, though I don’t live along that road.

I saw a very good video on yesterday on Facebook that showed tornado genesis! You likely have good video as well.

Very good right-up and photos on your post above!

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/summary_052419

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It sure has been a wet May as Grand Rapids is now at 5.00" Muskegon is at 5.99" Kalamazoo is at 5.01" to the east Lansing has had much less rain and sets at 2.37"

 It still has not officially reached 80 or better at Grand Rapids this year. The high here at my house yesterday was 76 (78 at GRR) 

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Des Moines NWS discussing Tuesday...

 

Tuesday continues to be the target for potential significant severe
weather across Iowa as a potent upper closed upper level low
pressure lifts northeast into western Nebraska. Numerous high impact
past events are showing up in the 72 hr CIPS Analogs this past run
including 6/4/2008, 5/27/1995 and 5/22/2008 to name a few. Each had
numerous supercells with tornadoes in addition to damaging winds and
very large hail. The synoptic environment certainly looks conducive
for a repeat with the warm front stretched across the state, which at
this time, appears to be somewhere between Highway 20 and Interstate
80. This will be a highly forced dynamic system which should erode
the morning/early afternoon capping inversion with the potential for
explosive supercell development. Certainly will continue to monitor
the situation. SPC has placed the area under an Enhanced risk for
severe weather Tuesday. Reference SWODY3 for additional details. If
the situation continues to evolve as expected, likely this risk will
be upgraded with future forecasts.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Friday was a rather challenging forecast, at least for me. What made it difficult was that the warm front had similar parameters from Kankakee all the way towards the East Central Iowa triple point. I had originally targeted Rock Island as models had honed in on initiation along the MS river this morning, and had generally held on to that idea through the early afternoon, so off I went to the Quad Cities, after stumbling around there for a few hours, and winding up in some shadier areas of Rock Island, I found a safe spot to check obs. It became evident that the Quad Cities was no longer the place to be and that the triple point in East Central Iowa was looking increasingly favored over IL, particularly noting the extreme levels of 0-3km CAPE(200-250 J/kg), rich mid 70s dewpoints and the fact that it had been sunny in Iowa the whole day, whereas IL had a late morning MCS and midday supercell. Not to mention that a fairly robust patch of cumulus was evident on visible satellite out in Iowa. After seeing that Iowa was clearly becoming the favored target area, I turned back the way I came, minus one tank of gas lol.

Eventually posted up in Williamsburg and watched several towers to the south struggle. After about an hour and a half of watching towers go up and back down on themselves, I became increasingly concerned with the possibility of a cap bust, as subsidence was really putting a hamper on these updrafts, and seemingly winning for the time being.

H7ptUTK.png

A lone storm finally became established at about 5:45pm and slowly began to acquire supercell characteristics. Core punched through perhaps the lamest core ever(heavy rain and pea size hail -- zzzzzz) but was greeted with a nice, broadly rotating wall cloud, but updraft base was still pretty anemic otherwise. This storm would fight for its life during its entire existence. 

eXY9q15.png

This wall cloud would persist and evolve with several RFD pushes failing to get the job done. I continued to follow the storm east, and the low-level rotation was getting more and more defined with each successive push of the RFD, but still had a long ways to go. As this supercell approached the warm front, it rapidly got its act together and picked up a tornado warning. Not 10 minutes later, a barrel-shaped tornado dropped below the world's most anemic base, which allowed for some spectacular lighting, to be fair. I'm almost certain that the extra vorticity on the warm front and 225 J/kg of 0-3km CAPE are reasons this storm was able to produce such a formidable tornado despite the storm struggling to maintain a consistently strong updraft.

kURAfLf.png

1iWjHBc.png

 

(Music is because I totally botched the real audio -- with radio, some tornado tourettes and talking to other chasers, so I just canned and replaced it with some music.)

 

After this tornado occluded over Iowa City, the storm slowly started to succumb to the subsidence as it never regained anything really resembling a healthy updraft base after this tornado. I followed it towards West Branch before letting it go and heading back to Cedar Rapids. This storm went up, produced a significant tornado and died in under 2 hours, that is the part that surprises me. This wasn't a dominant, robust supercell, this was a supercell that did nothing but fight to stay alive as long as it could, which happened to be just long enough that it was able to produce the most impressive single tornado that I've seen so far. What a fantastic way to start off my 2019 chase season!

 

DvuoEAp.png

Great work! Were you close enough to hear the roar of the twister? That was an intense supercell as you mentioned and it surely was notable in your video. Surprised there weren’t more storm chasers in the area tracking that beast. Good luck next time!

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