St Paul Storm Posted May 26, 2019 Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 Jealous of all the pics you guys are able to get of a twister. Great work everyone! With as active as it has been for many of you recently, I just realized that I’ve only seen one thunderstorm so far this spring. The trend of greater instability to my south looks to continue tomorrow. All we’ll get up this way is some stratiform rain most likely. But, 75F and bright blue skies today. Can’t complain. Hope everyone stays safe and have a nice rest of the holiday weekend. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 26, 2019 Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 Yet another day I've been dropped out of the slight risk and the Texas Panhandle ends up being the place to be. C'monnnnnnnnn. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 We had a great time up in the mountains of Payson, AZ yesterday during our hike and then our lunch break at Willow Springs Lake (7,500ft elevation). While it was 100% sunny, the cool temps (low 60's) and breezy conditions made it a bit chilly in the shade and you needed to put on a hoodie. There was nearly a 30 degree difference in temps from the top of the Rim to the valley floor. We left the lake around 2:00pm with an outside temp of 62F and drove for 2 hours back home into the 90F heat! Today it will be in the mid 80's and possibly a Record cold high for Memorial Day of only 77F! Pretty wild weather here as it will snow again in Flagstaff tomorrow. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted May 26, 2019 Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 2500-4500 cape and decent wind shear on Tuesday going to be a bumpy afternoon/evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 26, 2019 Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 It appears El Reno took a direct hit. Seeing reports of deaths but cannot confirm that.2 confirmed dead. Floods last week and tornado this week. Tough time for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted May 26, 2019 Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 It's been the year for Texas Panhandle storms. May rock and Roll again today. I don't know how the DFW area has managed to avoid the really bad stuff but I'm okay with that. It seems to jump over us then hit NE Texas....that isn't normal at all. Looks like a crazy summer for us all. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 26, 2019 Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 Super day today... 70s, light wind, pleasant humidity. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 26, 2019 Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 Yeah its literally perfect. Sun...no wind....71° Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 26, 2019 Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 Great work! Were you close enough to hear the roar of the twister? That was an intense supercell as you mentioned and it surely was notable in your video. Surprised there weren’t more storm chasers in the area tracking that beast. Good luck next time!I could definitely hear the roar, but early on it was more of a whistle. Many chasers were out in the plains, and even the ones that were in the Midwest were spread out across Iowa and Illinois, lot of bust potential on this setup. My attention now turns to Tuesday... 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 26, 2019 Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 Not buying any long term drying/warming trends past d7. Signs looking to start fading cooler in the central states again. Probably accompanied by more rainfall.Our Southeastern US corn producers might be carrying the load this season when all is said and done. Really will be interesting to see how the next 3 weeks play out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 26, 2019 Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 It seems to rain almost daily around here. So often it's hard to keep track almost! Late last eve some tiny showers happened to move across with several downpours and strong 0.40" of rain. Then more showers and light rain well after midnight ending this morning brought another 0.40" or so for a total of 0.83". For the previous event I ended up with a total of around 1.30" . May 22 & 23 were the only days with no measurable rainfall here since the 15th of May! Yesterday I toured around the neighborhood a bit to see how much damage there was. Some people were cleaning up, but I'm thankful it wasn't to bad overall. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted May 26, 2019 Report Share Posted May 26, 2019 1-3 inches of rain overnight tonight. Hmm going to be a soaker. Definitely watching Tuesday. But very interesting tornado warning over by Denver. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 DMX going with widespread 2-3" and Waterloo bullseye of 3-4" by Tuesday night. Also most of Iowa already in a moderate risk for Tuesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 HRRR looks very impressive for Iowa tomorrow morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 HRRR looks very impressive for Iowa tomorrow morning. The initial line or two in the morning are going to be hauling a**. Even if they are fairly strong, they'll only last 5-10 minutes. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 So pivotal has a sigtor (significant tornado) option for the Nam. That is painting a nasty stripe from Beatrice through Lincoln and straight through here. Going to be a hairy day if that actually plays out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 3km NAM has the best severe parameters in Eastern Kansas. Triple point in North Central Kansas. Barely has enough moisture for routine thunderstorms up here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 So pivotal has a sigtor (significant tornado) option for the Nam. That is painting a nasty stripe from Beatrice through Lincoln and straight through here. Going to be a hairy day if that actually plays out.Wouldn't pay too much attention to that. Uncapped CAPE all looks to be in Northeast Kansas, with the warm front basically on the state line, MAYBE sagging up towards Beatrice. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Wouldn't pay too much attention to that. Uncapped CAPE all looks to be in Northeast Kansas, with the warm front basically on the state line, MAYBE sagging up towards Beatrice.Yeah looking at the 00z runs they have shifted south with the bulk of energy. But we will see if that continues. Those 18z runs had me nervous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Yesterday Des Moines NWS mentioned the enhanced severe across Iowa on Tuesday could be upgraded further. Instead, everything is getting shoved south and the severe has been downgraded instead. It's the year of south. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Happy Memorial Day! Some fascinating weather pics are coming out of the desert SW and up in the northern Rockies. Check out this pic from northeast WY where 4" of hail dropped out of the sky: In New Mexico, here's a wide shot of a towering supercell that produced a tornado.... 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Back home, Chicago is under an Enhanced Risk for today/tonight...I miss a good ol' crackling thunderstorm... Latest CAM's showing E IA in the game also 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 It's late in May, and we are tracking a tightly wrapped up mid lat cyclone traversing the central CONUS...this year has proven to be a year the atmosphere is ripe with energy. Interestingly, this system is deepening into the upper 990's! Looks like the ULL tracked just NW of OMA per the radar animation below. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Once we get past this weeks deluge of rain, the anticipated "drier" trend among the models is now beginning to show up heading into June. I made this call last week, all awhile, nearly every model was suggesting the wet pattern to continue from IA/IL on north (Midwest on north), but it was my belief that the models were under estimating the blocking and amplification of the west coast ridge. Nonetheless, I know there are many farmers out there, esp in the Upper Midwest, that need this drier period to commence and forecast verify. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 I hope everyone is having the best possible Memorial day weekend. It is now party cloudy with a temperature of 65. We went up to Bay City yesterday and boy is it wet up there. A lot of standing water and the rivers are high in their banks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 I got 0.32" from the lines of storms that moved through earlier this morning. Models have additional showers and storms developing across Iowa today, and there are some nice looking storms getting going southwest of here and they are moving northeast, so we should add to our total here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 We could not have gotten any less rain out of that line. The better downpours all bypassed my yard. I only picked up 0.23". I'm thinking the sw Iowa storms are going to pass south of Cedar Rapids. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 We have been on vacation in DC since last Wednesday, flying back to Nebraska this afternoon. I see my town got over 2.5” last night on top of 1.5” a couple of days before that. Sounds like standing water in many fields from what I have seen on local Twitter accounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Pretty heavy band of rain moving through. Not too much lightning or wind, but it’s producing a nice downpour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 I've asked Tom to pin a thread for rainfall totals for the year. As we all will likely see an extraordinary year, it will be interesting to compare totals throughout the year. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Plentiful sunshine outside and mild conditions w temps in the 60s. T'stms developing tanite. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 We could not have gotten any less rain out of that line. The better downpours all bypassed my yard. I only picked up 0.23". I'm thinking the sw Iowa storms are going to pass south of Cedar Rapids.Assuming it holds together, I think it’ll held through Cedar Rapids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Running through some quick OCS numbers, temperature wise, look about 6°F behind last May. This was buoyed by a much below average start. What a difference a year makes. Last season, there was extraordinary wildfire concern by month's end. Not so much this year... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Yesterday Des Moines NWS mentioned the enhanced severe across Iowa on Tuesday could be upgraded further. Instead, everything is getting shoved south and the severe has been downgraded instead. It's the year of south.Maybe it will shift north in June. With such a late spring the seasonal northward progression of severe wx might be late as well. I picked up only 0.21" of rain this morning as I got into a narrow gap between cells that were heavier just to my nw. and se. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Also..... Happy Memorial Day everyone!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Just another day in May '19 here in the mountains of Arizona...the ski resort of Snowbowl is getting some heavy snowfall ATM...https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/webcams/ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 My grandparents in SoCal woke up this morning with snow down to 8,000 feet on the mountains outside their window. That's about normal for a January snowfall there. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Here are some midday temperatures from the UP Houghton 40, Copper Harbor 45, Marquette 46, Sault Ste Marie 48 Macinac Island 48. Not a great Memorial Day in Michigan's UP 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 I thought showers and storms are supposed to redevelop later today. How do severe storm prospects look for Eastern Iowa later today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Here were some pics from my hike the other day near Payson... 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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