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May 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Jealous of all the pics you guys are able to get of a twister. Great work everyone! With as active as it has been for many of you recently, I just realized that I’ve only seen one thunderstorm so far this spring. The trend of greater instability to my south looks to continue tomorrow. All we’ll get up this way is some stratiform rain most likely. But, 75F and bright blue skies today. Can’t complain.

 

Hope everyone stays safe and have a nice rest of the holiday weekend.

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We had a great time up in the mountains of Payson, AZ yesterday during our hike and then our lunch break at Willow Springs Lake (7,500ft elevation).  While it was 100% sunny, the cool temps (low 60's) and breezy conditions made it a bit chilly in the shade and you needed to put on a hoodie.  There was nearly a 30 degree difference in temps from the top of the Rim to the valley floor.  We left the lake around 2:00pm with an outside temp of 62F and drove for 2 hours back home into the 90F heat!  Today it will be in the mid 80's and possibly a Record cold high for Memorial Day of only 77F!  Pretty wild weather here as it will snow again in Flagstaff tomorrow. 

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It's been the year for Texas Panhandle storms. May rock and Roll again today.

I don't know how the DFW area has managed to avoid the really bad stuff but I'm okay with that. It seems to jump over us then hit NE Texas....that isn't normal at all.

 

Looks like a crazy summer for us all.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Great work! Were you close enough to hear the roar of the twister? That was an intense supercell as you mentioned and it surely was notable in your video. Surprised there weren’t more storm chasers in the area tracking that beast. Good luck next time!

I could definitely hear the roar, but early on it was more of a whistle. Many chasers were out in the plains, and even the ones that were in the Midwest were spread out across Iowa and Illinois, lot of bust potential on this setup.

 

My attention now turns to Tuesday...

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Not buying any long term drying/warming trends past d7. Signs looking to start fading cooler in the central states again. Probably accompanied by more rainfall.

Our Southeastern US corn producers might be carrying the load this season when all is said and done. Really will be interesting to see how the next 3 weeks play out.

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It seems to rain almost daily around here. So often it's hard to keep track almost! Late last eve some tiny showers happened to move across with several downpours and strong 0.40" of rain. Then more showers and light rain well after midnight ending this morning brought another 0.40" or so for a total of 0.83".

 

For the previous event I ended up with a total of around 1.30" . May 22 & 23 were the only days with no measurable rainfall here since the 15th of May!

 

Yesterday I toured around the neighborhood a bit to see how much damage there was. Some people were cleaning up, but I'm thankful it wasn't to bad overall.

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HRRR looks very impressive for Iowa tomorrow morning. 

 

The initial line or two in the morning are going to be hauling a**.  Even if they are fairly strong, they'll only last 5-10 minutes.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So pivotal has a sigtor (significant tornado) option for the Nam. That is painting a nasty stripe from Beatrice through Lincoln and straight through here. Going to be a hairy day if that actually plays out.

Wouldn't pay too much attention to that. Uncapped CAPE all looks to be in Northeast Kansas, with the warm front basically on the state line, MAYBE sagging up towards Beatrice.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Wouldn't pay too much attention to that. Uncapped CAPE all looks to be in Northeast Kansas, with the warm front basically on the state line, MAYBE sagging up towards Beatrice.

Yeah looking at the 00z runs they have shifted south with the bulk of energy. But we will see if that continues. Those 18z runs had me nervous.
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Yesterday Des Moines NWS mentioned the enhanced severe across Iowa on Tuesday could be upgraded further.  Instead, everything is getting shoved south and the severe has been downgraded instead.  It's the year of south.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Happy Memorial Day!  Some fascinating weather pics are coming out of the desert SW and up in the northern Rockies.  Check out this pic from northeast WY where 4" of hail dropped out of the sky:

 

D7iR7-_WsAMVuMW.jpg

 

 

D7iR8BaWkAAigpd.jpg

 

 

In New Mexico, here's a  wide shot of a towering supercell that produced a tornado....

 

 

D7iqZyXXkAAvb9o.jpg

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It's late in May, and we are tracking a tightly wrapped up mid lat cyclone traversing the central CONUS...this year has proven to be a year the atmosphere is ripe with energy.  Interestingly, this system is deepening into the upper 990's!  Looks like the ULL tracked just NW of OMA per the radar animation below.

 

 

1300z.gif

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Once we get past this weeks deluge of rain, the anticipated "drier" trend among the models is now beginning to show up heading into June.  I made this call last week, all awhile, nearly every model was suggesting the wet pattern to continue from IA/IL on north (Midwest on north), but it was my belief that the models were under estimating the blocking and amplification of the west coast ridge.  Nonetheless, I know there are many farmers out there, esp in the Upper Midwest, that need this drier period to commence and forecast verify.

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_7.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_10.png

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I got 0.32" from the lines of storms that moved through earlier this morning. Models have additional showers and storms developing across Iowa today, and there are some nice looking storms getting going southwest of here and they are moving northeast, so we should add to our total here. 

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We could not have gotten any less rain out of that line.  The better downpours all bypassed my yard.  I only picked up 0.23".

 

I'm thinking the sw Iowa storms are going to pass south of Cedar Rapids.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I've asked Tom to pin a thread for rainfall totals for the year.

 

As we all will likely see an extraordinary year, it will be interesting to compare totals throughout the year.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Plentiful sunshine outside and mild conditions w temps in the 60s. T'stms developing tanite.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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We could not have gotten any less rain out of that line. The better downpours all bypassed my yard. I only picked up 0.23".

 

I'm thinking the sw Iowa storms are going to pass south of Cedar Rapids.

Assuming it holds together, I think it’ll held through Cedar Rapids.

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Running through some quick OCS numbers, temperature wise, look about 6°F behind last May. This was buoyed by a much below average start. What a difference a year makes. Last season, there was extraordinary wildfire concern by month's end. Not so much this year...

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Yesterday Des Moines NWS mentioned the enhanced severe across Iowa on Tuesday could be upgraded further.  Instead, everything is getting shoved south and the severe has been downgraded instead.  It's the year of south.

Maybe it will shift north in June. With such a late spring the seasonal northward progression of severe wx might be late as well.

 

I picked up only 0.21" of rain this morning as I got into a narrow gap between cells that were heavier just to my nw. and se.

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