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May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW


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I’m thinking the big rain pattern will get toned down/delayed as it moves within 7 days. Euro last night already started showing this.

 

00z EPS mean holding steady at 1.2". But yeah I agree with this.

 

Hopefully you guys can at least squeeze out an inch or so during this next "rainy" period then hope for a cutoff miracle June.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Look like mid-80's likely or 84-ish this Friday/Saturday. 

 

I'm not typically a fan of 80's weather until after Memorial Day but whatever, the PWN springs/summers have been trending warmer and drier in recent years anyway.

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Looks like a major pattern change is only about a week away.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Look like mid-80's likely or 84-ish this Friday/Saturday. 

 

I'm not typically a fan of 80's weather until after Memorial Day but whatever, the PWN springs/summers have been trending warmer and drier in recent years anyway.

April-June period has trended wetter at PDX over the last eight decades.

 

However winter has trended drier.

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Look like mid-80's likely or 84-ish this Friday/Saturday.

 

I'm not typically a fan of 80's weather until after Memorial Day but whatever, the PWN springs/summers have been trending warmer and drier in recent years anyway.

The last couple of years have taught us not to take our warm summer days for granted with the late summer smoke outs. There could be some smoke again this year so best to enjoy all the nice days there is before late July starts. Maybe this summer will not end up the same as the last one but best to be prepared.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The last couple of years have taught us not to take our warm summer days for granted with the late summer smoke outs. There could be some smoke again this year so best to enjoy all the nice days there is before late July starts. Maybe this summer will not end up the same as the last one but best to be prepared.

 

 

What do we do to prepare for something that has been happening for millions of years?   Specifically wildfire smoke.

 

Its fascinating to read the old pioneer weather records.   I was going through some dairies from Ft. Snelling in Minnesota from the early 1800s and they frequently reported thick smoke as the grasslands of the Midwest burned uncontrollably.  Ironically... its much better today thanks to agriculture and human development.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Noticeable shift northward on all the models with the GOA troughing next week.   That should definitely increase the rain chances as less of the action goes into CA.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There’s a chance this summer may be smoky again maybe, hopefully it won’t it’s been fairly dry hasn’t rained much the last 10 days here with not much in the forecast coming up. Could have a wet second half of this month or some rain in June to help out. It’s still early it could end up being different than last year.

I apologize for just now replying, been busy out enjoying the sun. Yeah, it's still early and looks like we will finally get some rain next week. FWIW, I'm still leaning towards more of a normal summer here in the PNW compared to the warm/hot ones we have received the past several years. I'm actually rooting for some rain because too dry is not good.

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What do we do to prepare for something that has been happening for millions of years?   Specifically wildfire smoke.

 

Its fascinating to read the old pioneer weather records.   I was going through some dairies from Ft. Snelling in Minnesota from the early 1800s and they frequently reported thick smoke as the grasslands of the Midwest burned uncontrollably.  Ironically... its much better today thanks to agriculture and human development.

 

Weather impacts our daily lives now less than it ever has in human history. Part of why the global warming hysteria is so ridiculous. So many chicken little's. But of course it is not really about climate and really about controlling our lives. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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What do we do to prepare for something that has been happening for millions of years? Specifically wildfire smoke.

 

Its fascinating to read the old pioneer weather records. I was going through some dairies from Ft. Snelling in Minnesota from the early 1800s and they frequently reported thick smoke as the grasslands of the Midwest burned uncontrollably. Ironically... its much better today thanks to agriculture and human development.

if you had actually understood what I meant, I meant that you should go and enjoy the sunshine while there is sunshine. Just in case there’s wildlife smoke for a couple months and no sunshine instead ruining the normal beautiful summer weather.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Dumbest Take of the Year Award 2019. Congrats!

There is truth to what he said. Not so much the “controlling people’s lives” part, but the mass hysteria over fairly standard, run-of-the-mill climate change (compared to the natural climate changes that have permeated the Holocene) is nauseating.

 

Sea level has been rising at essentially the same rate since the mid-1800s, and has risen just 6-7 inches over that timespan. It was ~ 1-2 meters higher during the middle Holocene and fluctuated by +/- 1 meter on a regular basis through the MHT period, starting 6000ybp. So yes, we’ve actually had it nice. It could be much worse (and it will inevitably get worse, no matter what we do, as Obliquity declines and the insolation gradient tightens).

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12Z EPS is not as aggressive as the operational run with the initial trough in the middle of next week.   Its moving in late on Thursday on the EPS mean... similar to previous runs.

 

Total precip over next 15 days per the EPS mean:

 

eps-qpf-m-conus-61.png

 

 

Looks about the same in the 9-12 day period... and still shows some ridging (or maybe less troughing) again by the end of the run.  

 

eps-z500a-noram-61.png

 

 

eps-t850a-noram-61.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 12z EPS actually increased rainfall totals vs 00z.

 

And that “ridge” look is mostly an artifact of ensemble spread between mild SW flow/GOA troughing and more cool/dry troughing/-PNA.

 

It doesn’t even show up until D15 so not worth analyzing until one of those two outcomes is settled on.

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New 12z EPS on top, old 00z EPS on the bottom.

 

Substantial increase in the ensemble mean precipitation through D15. Up to ~ 1.6” @ SEA.

 

bQwdw64.png

bXIui9o.png

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Yeah... just scrolled through each precip total map for the last 3 runs and its definitely trending wetter.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hard to get a better wind stress setup than this if you want a downwelling OKW/subsurface warming under the ENSO domain. Watch the West-Pacific..should see inception there shortly.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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There is truth to what he said. Not so much the “controlling people’s lives” part, but the mass hysteria over fairly standard, run-of-the-mill climate change (compared to the natural climate changes that have permeated the Holocene) is nauseating.

 

Sea level has been rising at essentially the same rate since the mid-1800s, and has risen just 6-7 inches over that timespan.

 

Sea level has risen about 8" since the late-1800s (I wonder what started around that time?...). That 8" rise is  much greater than at any time in at least the past 2000 years. (see: Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia (2011) paper)

 

It was ~ 1-2 meters higher during the middle Holocene and fluctuated by +/- 1 meter on a regular basis through the MHT period, starting 6000ybp. So yes, we’ve actually had it nice.

 

Yes, and Texas used to have an ocean run through it and the Appalachians used to be taller than the Cascades are now. Things have been much different in the past (even the recent past as you cite), but that is completely besides the point. We are talking about reducing human-caused contributions to global warming to slow down the rate of global warming. This will, in turn, delay the impacts that a warming globe will have on humans. 

 

It could be much worse (and it will inevitably get worse, no matter what we do, as Obliquity declines and the insolation gradient tightens).

 

Correct, it will get worse. And human-caused contributions to global warming are expediting the issue. I'm sure I don't need to go down the list of the impacts this will have on the world (refugee crises, water issues, ecological damage, etc..)

...

 

I’m so tired of listening to stupid celebrities and politicians who have zero education in the physical sciences lecturing the masses on climate change. These people don’t even know how the “greenhouse effect” works, let alone the radiative transfer physics/flow equations for each of the contributing tri-atomic gases. Ask Al Gore or any of these dunderheads to explain thermalization, molecular line broadening, and how CO^2 increase *actually* leads to surface warming (which it does) and see what happens.

 

99% of the world's population will never have an education in physical sciences. In fact, one of the critical skills of being a scientist is being able to explain science to the uneducated masses in a digestible form. The job of a politician is to "sell" the data and solutions being proposed by the scientists to the masses. If you expect the masses to be able to explain or even understand 'molecular line broadening', then you're kidding yourself. Consistently talking in jargon is typically the sign of a scientist who is incapable of reducing their subject to a digestible form, which suggests a lack of true understanding of what they're discussing.

 

The gap between what scientists know and what the pubic understands about global warming is enormous. It's also what leads non-scientists like SilverFallsAndrew to come to the unsupported conclusion that " it is not really about climate and really about controlling our lives."

 

 

 

Yes, and Texas used to have an ocean run through it and the Appalachians used to be taller than the Cascades are now. Things have been much different in the past (even the recent past as you cite), but that is completely besides the point.

 

That, Sir, is exactly the point

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Yeah not backing down from my opinion. Weather now has less impact on humans than it has at any other point in history and this will continue as we continue to forecast it better and advance technologically. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I’m so tired of listening to stupid celebrities and politicians who have zero education in the physical sciences lecturing the masses on climate change. These people don’t even know how the “greenhouse effect” works, let alone the radiative transfer physics/flow equations for each of the contributing tri-atomic gases.

 

Ask Al Gore or any of these dunderheads to explain thermalization, molecular line broadening, and how CO^2 increase *actually* leads to surface warming (which it does) and see what happens.

 

They just have to have something to be self-righteous about and that they can tell us to show how much better than us peons they are.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Share on other sites

 

There is truth to what he said. Not so much the “controlling people’s lives” part, but the mass hysteria over fairly standard, run-of-the-mill climate change (compared to the natural climate changes that have permeated the Holocene) is nauseating.

 

Sea level has been rising at essentially the same rate since the mid-1800s, and has risen just 6-7 inches over that timespan.

 

Sea level has risen about 8" since the late-1800s (I wonder what started around that time?...). That 8" rise is  much greater than at any time in at least the past 2000 years. (see: Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia (2011) paper)

 

It was ~ 1-2 meters higher during the middle Holocene and fluctuated by +/- 1 meter on a regular basis through the MHT period, starting 6000ybp. So yes, we’ve actually had it nice.

 

Yes, and Texas used to have an ocean run through it and the Appalachians used to be taller than the Cascades are now. Things have been much different in the past (even the recent past as you cite), but that is completely besides the point. We are talking about reducing human-caused contributions to global warming to slow down the rate of global warming. This will, in turn, delay the impacts that a warming globe will have on humans. 

 

It could be much worse (and it will inevitably get worse, no matter what we do, as Obliquity declines and the insolation gradient tightens).

 

Correct, it will get worse. And human-caused contributions to global warming are expediting the issue. I'm sure I don't need to go down the list of the impacts this will have on the world (refugee crises, water issues, ecological damage, etc..)

...

 

I’m so tired of listening to stupid celebrities and politicians who have zero education in the physical sciences lecturing the masses on climate change. These people don’t even know how the “greenhouse effect” works, let alone the radiative transfer physics/flow equations for each of the contributing tri-atomic gases. Ask Al Gore or any of these dunderheads to explain thermalization, molecular line broadening, and how CO^2 increase *actually* leads to surface warming (which it does) and see what happens.
 
99% of the world's population will never have an education in physical sciences. In fact, one of the critical skills of being a scientist is being able to explain science to the uneducated masses in a digestible form. The job of a politician is to "sell" the data and solutions being proposed by the scientists to the masses. If you expect the masses to be able to explain or even understand 'molecular line broadening', then you're kidding yourself. Consistently talking in jargon is typically the sign of a scientist who is incapable of reducing their subject to a digestible form, which suggests a lack of true understanding of what they're discussing.
 
The gap between what scientists know and what the pubic understands about global warming is enormous. It's also what leads non-scientists like SilverFallsAndrew to come to the unsupported conclusion that " it is not really about climate and really about controlling our lives."

 

 

What's funny is I never said I didn't believe in climate change or that it was not real. I agree, much of the science behind it is beyond people's understanding which is exactly how politicians can exploit it for their own personal interests. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Rain turning to snow now in central and northeast Minnesota... the date stamp and the scene seem completely out of sync.

 

Vid-000158010-00-00.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Climate change means more strong ridge downstream of strong trough blocking patterns. If we go on like this, we'll see long, dry periods of highs in the 100s in January in Los Angeles and long, wet periods of highs in the 50s in July some years. Other years we'll see long periods of below freezing in Los Angeles in January and long periods of highs in the 150s in July. It's the whole whiplash effect as described on weatherwest.

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Climate change means more strong ridge downstream of strong trough blocking patterns. If we go on like this, we'll see long, dry periods of highs in the 100s in January in Los Angeles and long, wet periods of highs in the 50s in July some years. Other years we'll see long periods of below freezing in Los Angeles in January and long periods of highs in the 150s in July. It's the whole whiplash effect as described on weatherwest.

 

:huh:

 

Can't tell if this is a troll post or not.

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Yeah not backing down from my opinion. Weather now has less impact on humans than it has at any other point in history and this will continue as we continue to forecast it better and advance technologically.

Wrong.

 

With the only recent advent of internet weather forums and such a wide array of long range forecast models weather has never had such a massive impact on human emotions.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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:huh:

 

Can't tell if this is a troll post or not.

Not a troll post. A few years ago with the Really Resilient Ridge in the peak of our drought, we had the warmest February on record. East Coast had relentless Polar Vortex and record snowfall levels.

 

Blocking is becoming more and more common, even as described in some articles on climate change. We are having more extremes in both directions - heat, droughts, cold, floods

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Looks like the high temp for the day here is going to be 71 for the day. Should be atleast 80 the next 3 days.

2 months ago today on March 8th we had our final accumulating snowfall of the season here. This winter seems like a distant memory now.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Sea level has risen about 8" since the late-1800s (I wonder what started around that time?...). That 8" rise is much greater than at any time in at least the past 2000 years.

Anthropogenic forcing wasn’t substantial enough to affect climate (to a statistically significant degree) until after the Second World War, so the sea level rise during the 19th century and early portion of the 20th century was mostly natural. If anything, SO^2 emissions provided a modest cooling effect during the early portions of the industrial revolution.

 

Remember, you will get 3.7W/m^2 in initial radiative forcing @ the TOA boundary for every doubling of CO^2 concentration. The CO^2 increases before 1940, in the face of sulfur emissions/etc, were simply too modest to provide for much warming. The unchanged rate of sea level rise since then (knowing the majority of it is actually steric sea level rise) is quite revealing.

 

That fact is, we were already recovering from the LIA cold cycle, some of which was forced, some of which was unforced. But it was already ongoing and had nothing to do with us (at the time).

 

Yes, and Texas used to have an ocean run through it and the Appalachians used to be taller than the Cascades are now. Things have been much different in the past (even the recent past as you cite), but that is completely besides the point. We are talking about reducing human-caused contributions to global warming to slow down the rate of global warming. This will, in turn, delay the impacts that a warming globe will have on humans.

The changes I’m referring to are much more recent, and rapidly occurring. The ongoing climate change could easily triple in magnitude (or reverse) via unforced variably alone..the highest resolution climate proxies make this abundantly clear. Sure, we can (and should) develop a multi-tiered game plan to deal with climate change now and in the future, but it should focus on *adapting* to abrupt climate change, which is inevitable, as opposed to attempting to *stop* climate change, which is an impossible waste of money and analogous to parking a semi-truck in front of a speeding locomotive. Suicide.

 

Of course we should aim to reduce our carbon footprint and move towards renewable/nuclear energy. The current state of affairs is unsustainable. But let’s bd rational about what the outcome will be. The rate of climate change will probably not change at all.

 

Correct, it will get worse. And human-caused contributions to global warming are expediting the issue. I'm sure I don't need to go down the list of the impacts this will have on the world (refugee crises, water issues, ecological damage, etc..)

...

This will happen irrespective of what we do. The climate system become increasingly unstable as obliquity (axial tilt) lessens, which dampens the seasonal cycle and tightens the meridional thermal gradient, strengthens eddy fluxes/moisture transport, and alters the z-cells/tropical convection around the globe. Eventually it will terminate the Holocene, in a runaway-breakdown-type-fashion. See the end of the Eemian interglacial for the most recent example..only took 400 years.

 

99% of the world's population will never have an education in physical sciences. In fact, one of the critical skills of being a scientist is being able to explain science to the uneducated masses in a digestible form. The job of a politician is to "sell" the data and solutions being proposed by the scientists to the masses. If you expect the masses to be able to explain or even understand 'molecular line broadening', then you're kidding yourself. Consistently talking in jargon is typically the sign of a scientist who is incapable of reducing their subject to a digestible form, which suggests a lack of true understanding of what they're discussing.

What a load of bullshït. If politicians and celebrities listened to scientists, they wouldn’t trumpet pseudoscientific nonsense and blame their political opposition for the made-up consequences of said pseudoscientific nonsense. I haven’t heard any useful solutions proposed by our supposed “leaders” re: climate change in over a decade. If you think otherwise, you’re deluding yourself.

 

The gap between what scientists know and what the pubic understands about global warming is enormous. It's also what leads non-scientists like SilverFallsAndrew to come to the unsupported conclusion that " it is not really about climate and really about controlling our lives.

I don’t agree with Andrew there either. But the problem is, the messages you’re hearing from the political parties, the media, and even some of the mouthpieces of the world’s research institutions, do NOT reflect the full physical reality of the situation, because the public is NOT capable of understanding it. And it’s really much more complicated and murky than I think you realize.

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One more... it is absolutely nuking snow in central Minnesota right now.

 

Vid-000330034-00-02.jpg

I will have to send a haha pic of my sunny warm backyard to my family in central Minnesota!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The 12z EPS actually increased rainfall totals vs 00z.

 

And that “ridge” look is mostly an artifact of ensemble spread between mild SW flow/GOA troughing and more cool/dry troughing/-PNA.

 

It doesn’t even show up until D15 so not worth analyzing until one of those two outcomes is settled on.

What you just said sounds like an average of the means. Thanks for that. Isn’t that what the EPS does?

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Guest CulverJosh

I like to average my averages. A 10 and 5 to 7.5. 7.5 and 7.5 to a 7.5. Hell, may even take three ones and average it to a one. Then I go sniff glue and go to bed.

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