May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Every single HRRR run since the 12z (nothing earlier is available right now) has been showing at least half an inch of rain here by midnight.

[TT-SEA]

Per official stats, SLE had 4 cloudy days last May and 4 so far this May.

Your friend and his girlfriend are enjoying May perfection in Seattle today.

[Front Ranger]

Your friend and his girlfriend are enjoying May perfection in Seattle today.

 

I think they're actually up in Vancouver today. Looks pleasant there, too.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS does not show the ULL.. and is warm each day of the long weekend. Basically warm through day 15.

 

Control run got rid of the ULL too.

[Omegaraptor]

Barometric pressure has been dropping all day. Good sign!

[Omegaraptor]

18z NAM unfortunately shows my area getting donut holed. One storm just barely too far west while the other is just barely too far east.

 

Hope the previous solutions verify. HRRR still shows a head-on hit for my area.

[Requiem]

18z NAM unfortunately shows my area getting donut holed. One storm just barely too far west while the other is just barely too far east.

 

Hope the previous solutions verify. HRRR still shows a head-on hit for my area.

 

That's the nature of these types of convective storms. We really don't know precisely where the impacts will lie.

[Jesse]

That's the nature of these types of convective storms. We really don't know precisely where the impacts will lie.

Sounds like Failshington County will take a DIRECT HIT. Right beneath the eye wall if I’m reading the models correctly.

[Phil]

I never expected sustained ridging... but there should be plenty of nice days mixed in.

Of course.

[TT-SEA]

Of course.

Actually looks like the majority of the days over the next 2 weeks will probably be nice.

 

Today is gorgeous too.

[Phil]

[Phil]

^^ Unless your name is Jesse.

 

In which case...

 

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

But...see that WAF machine building over the NW-Pacific during week 2?

That’s an inevitable party crasher. ☹

We have to get through this incredibly wet and miserable jet extension pattern first... then I will deal with that.

 

Sunny and 72 here now... with a few puffy fair weather cumulus. When will the rain stop??

[Requiem]

I do think that the potential for some thunderstorms inland and on the coast is there for tonight, as surface temperatures are warm and cool air is above (if I'm reading into that correctly). It's May, a nice stormy night would be a real treat.

[Phil]

You need to stop letting your desire to troll Tim hinder your ability to make a realistic forecast for our region.

I think I called the pattern pretty well. And I’m still not concerned about ridging sticking around for any prolonged period of time (until the WPAC machine turns on again).

 

Right now there’s some mishandling of wavetrains upstream that is typical of the monsoonal inception period. In the end, it will be sorted out, blues will replace oranges, and silly narratives will collapse (or be spun some other way..I don’t know which).

[Jesse]

I think I called the pattern pretty well. And I’m still not concerned about ridging sticking around for any prolonged period of time (until the WPAC machine turns on again).

 

Right now there’s some mishandling of wavetrains upstream that is typical of the monsoonal inception period. In the end, it will be sorted out, blues will replace oranges, and silly narratives will collapse (or be spun some other way).

Yeah, pretty much no idea what most of this means. I’m sure the “WPAC machine” will be turning on again sooner than you think though, as usual.

[James Jones]

I think I called the pattern pretty well. And I’m still not concerned about ridging sticking around for any prolonged period of time (until the WPAC machine turns on again).

 

Right now there’s some mishandling of wavetrains upstream that is typical of the monsoonal inception period. In the end, it will be sorted out, blues will replace oranges, and silly narratives will collapse (or be spun some other way..I don’t know which).

 

Maybe so, but at this point it's looking quite likely this May is going to end up top 10 (maybe even top 5) warm and dry for much of the region. If all I had to go by was your posts I would think this month was playing out in the mold of 2010 and 2011.

[Phil]

We have to get through this incredibly wet and miserable jet extension pattern first... then I will deal with that.

 

Sunny and 72 here now... with a few puffy fair weather cumulus. When will the rain stop??

I’m actually not in the mood to troll you today.

 

So I’m being honest when I say this post will not age well in the long run. And I’ll do my best not to re-quote it when the inclination to do so inevitably hits me.

[Jesse]

I’m actually not in the mood to troll you today.

 

So I’m being honest when I say this post will not age well in the long run. And I’ll do my best not to re-quote it when the inclination to do so inevitably hits me.

He’s right though. This jet extension has amounted to nothing for most of the region, and the next two weeks look depressingly dry and sunny. The posts that did not age well were your constant predictions for a very wet pattern the last half of May.

[Phil]

He’s right though. This jet extension has amounted to nothing for most of the region, and the next two weeks look depressingly dry and sunny. The posts that did not age well were your constant predictions for a very wet pattern the last half of May.

When did I say “very wet”? You’re projecting your own words and thoughts onto me.

 

I thought the month would finish within 1/2” of average at PDX. We’ll see if that end up off the mark or not, but there are some impressive precipitation records falling across the SW and Intermountain West a result of the jet extension, so to argue it “busted” because your backyard has missed out on the best action is to deny reality.

[TT-SEA]

I’m actually not in the mood to troll you today.

 

So I’m being honest when I say this post will not age well in the long run. And I’ll do my best not to re-quote it when the inclination to do so inevitably hits me.

 

I am not doubting another wet pattern in June... that actually seems likely.    Hope that comment ages well.   More rain in June would be good.

 

And the jet extension did happen... but you should probably defer to the PNW folks on this forum in terms of what it means for PNW precip.    

[Phil]

Most EPS members bring a zonal pattern back during the D10-15 period with precipitation focused farther north into BC/WA/N-OR. Some members have a strong ridge present but it’s a minority solution. Also kind of a moat of high heights in the area during the transition that offers some deception in the ensemble average.

 

Most members should inevitably flatten the ridge (ahead of a likely retrogression) next month.

 

[Jesse]

Most EPS members bring a zonal pattern back during the D10-15 period with precipitation focused farther north into BC/WA/N-OR. Some members have a strong ridge present but it’s a minority solution. Also kind of a moat of high heights in the area during the transition that offers some deception in the ensemble average.

 

Most members should inevitably flatten the ridge (ahead of a likely retrogression) next month.

 

 

That doesn’t look like a wet pattern.

[Phil]

FWIW, the persistence of the warmth over Greenland since the final warming is a huge swing from recent years. There was a perpetual vortex pattern up there every summer since 2013 (with the exception of 2016).

 

And if that’s changing, I doubt it’s changing in isolation.

[Front Ranger]

12Z EPS does not show the ULL.. and is warm each day of the long weekend. Basically warm through day 15.

 

Control run got rid of the ULL too.

Phil said this would happen!!

[TT-SEA]

That doesn’t look like a wet pattern.

Its not.

 

He seems intent on using low resolution EPS member precip maps that overstate amounts in attempt to troll me. I want more rain too... I just don't take his rain posts seriously now because he has been trying to oversell it for the last month.

 

His overselling only works for a little while... reality gets in the way quickly.

[James Jones]

That doesn’t look like a wet pattern.

 

Pretty tough to find examples of above normal 850s in a wet zonal pattern in early June.

[Phil]

Pretty tough to find examples of above normal 850s in a wet zonal pattern in early June.

When you have 52 EPS members, and 10 of them have a strong, stout ridge with +15C 850mb temp anomalies, it can skew the mean, when the other clusters of solutions are less prolific in the thermal department.

 

That’s why taking the D10-15 maps at face value (as if they represent the spatial structure of the pattern) is silly.

But for whatever reason, nobody listens to this. I don’t understand why.

[TT-SEA]

When you have 52 EPS members, and 10 of them have a strong, stout ridge with +15C 850mb anomalies, it can skew the mean.

That’s why taking the D10-15 maps at face value (as if they represent the spatial structure of the pattern) is silly.

But for whatever reason, nobody listens to this advice here. I don’t understand why.

Going to be lots of rain this coming week too because nobody knows how to read EPS maps and that was a really wet pattern it was showing last week.

 

But its playing out just like it showed. The EPS mean is best bet where different solutions will end up compromising.

[TT-SEA]

If Phil wants to impress us with his forecasting skills... he has to stop overpromising based on low resolution and overstated EPS member precip maps and stop trying to troll me.

[Phil]

This is why I hate attempting long range forecasts here sometimes. It’s actually extremely difficult to do, and even when I nail it (like now), I still lose, because someone or some region always gets left out and you get the kitchen sink thrown at you.

 

What this has proven is that I can nail a pattern perfectly, but if Jesse’s backyard gets left out, words and false narratives will be put into my mouth and I’ll be attacked no matter what.

 

And god help me if I miss a pattern altogether (thank goodness this hasn’t happened yet, but it will certainly happen eventually). One thing is for certain..after this summer I think I’m done with detailed long range forecasts for specific regions. Going to stick to large scale framework only.

[Dave]

[Omegaraptor]

This is why I hate attempting long range forecasts here sometimes. It’s actually extremely difficult to do, and even when I nail it (like now), I still lose, because someone or some region always gets left out and you get the kitchen sink thrown at you.

 

What this has proven is that I can nail a pattern perfectly, but if Jesse’s backyard gets left out, words and false narratives will be put into my mouth and I’ll be attacked no matter what.

 

And god help me if I miss a pattern altogether (which hasn’t happened yet, but it will happen eventually). One thing is for certain..after this summer I think I’m done with detailed long range forecasts for specific regions. Going to stick to large scale.

 

Back in the fall of 2017 most meteorologists were predicting a cold, wet, and snowy winter in 2017-18 that would have rivaled 2016-17.

 

We all know how that turned out.

[TT-SEA]

This is why I hate attempting long range forecasts here sometimes. It’s actually extremely difficult to do, and even when I nail it (like now), I still lose, because someone or some region always gets left out and you get the kitchen sink thrown at you.

What this has proven is that I can nail a pattern perfectly, but if Jesse’s backyard gets left out, words and false narratives will be put into my mouth and I’ll be attacked no matter what.

And god help me if I miss a pattern altogether (hasn’t happened yet, but it will certainly happen eventually). One thing is for certain..after this summer I think I’m done with detailed long range forecasts for specific regions. Going to stick to large scale framework only.

You do really well on a macro level. Your weakness is getting too deep in the weeds on the specific details for the PNW.

 

And it has been much drier than you predicted for way more than just Jesse's backyard. Most of us knew that was going to happen.

[Omegaraptor]

Best thunderstorm in years here. Plenty of loud thunder.

 

Nice to have a preview of what might be coming to the northern Valley.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

In other words, Phil has sh*t bigger thunderstorms than the one over Eugene right now.

[Phil]

In other words, Phil has sh*t bigger thunderstorms than the one over Eugene right now.

No way dude. I haven’t experienced those type of conditions since 2012. This microclimate is pathetic for literally everything except humidity and scorching winds.

 

Hell, I haven’t seen hail bigger than a small pebble since June of 2010. The big ones have been avoiding my area left, right, up, down, and sideways without relent for the last several years.

[Front Ranger]

This is why I hate attempting long range forecasts here sometimes. It’s actually extremely difficult to do, and even when I nail it (like now), I still lose, because someone or some region always gets left out and you get the kitchen sink thrown at you.

 

What this has proven is that I can nail a pattern perfectly, but if Jesse’s backyard gets left out, words and false narratives will be put into my mouth and I’ll be attacked no matter what.

 

And god help me if I miss a pattern altogether (thank goodness this hasn’t happened yet, but it will certainly happen eventually). One thing is for certain..after this summer I think I’m done with detailed long range forecasts for specific regions. Going to stick to large scale framework only.

 

The problem is that you didn't just forecast a general pattern, you also made a lot of comments about specific regions seeing a wet or very wet period.

 

And you sort of misinterpret what the models are actually showing for the PNW at times.