May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2006 wasn’t a good analog, was it?

 

The three wettest Novembers of the 1980s and 1990s were 1984, 1995, and 1998. I don’t think any of them are good analogs.

06-07 had some winter snow and cold temps briefly in Eugene.

[TacomaWaWx]

2006 wasn’t a good analog, was it?

 

The three wettest Novembers of the 1980s and 1990s were 1984, 1995, and 1998. I don’t think any of them are good analogs.

November 2006 we had nearly 16 inches of rain that month here. Don’t know how Oregon did but we got hose blasted. 2006 was a wet year with nearly 12 inches in January and a total of 50.48” here.

[TacomaWaWx]

06-07 had some winter snow and cold temps briefly in Eugene.

November 2006 featured a brief cold outbreak at the end of the month. Also January 2007 that one was a bit more prolonged though. Had a week stretch of cold weather here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November 2006 we had nearly 16 inches of rain that month here. Don’t know how Oregon did but we got hose blasted. 2006 was a wet year with nearly 12 inches in January and a total of 50.48” here.

 

According to the PRISM data I looked at November 2006 was estimated to be the wettest month in the 1895-present period for my location with about 26.5" of precip. 

[Omegaraptor]

I know that the climate of Portland and the Tualatin Valley isn’t that wet anyway, but we haven’t seen a month over 7” of precip since March of 2017. We’re probably due for something in the rain department.

 

November 2006 had 11.92” of precip at PDX.

[TacomaWaWx]

According to the PRISM data I looked at November 2006 was estimated to be the wettest month in the 1895-present period for my location with about 26.5" of precip.

Yeah the winter of 06-07 was impressive. Had the 12/14/06 storm that winter and a couple cold outbreaks and was very wet.

[Front Ranger]

We need to have a better idea on where ENSO will be (among other things) before we can delve into fall/winter analogs.

[TacomaWaWx]

I know that the climate of Portland and the Tualatin Valley isn’t that wet anyway, but we haven’t seen a month over 7” of precip since March of 2017. We’re probably due for something in the rain department.

 

November 2006 had 11.92” of precip at PDX.

Yeah it’s been since January 2018 since we’ve had a month with over 7 inches of rainfall, we had 8.12” here locally that month. So yeah we’re probably in for an anomalously wet month sometime soon.

[TacomaWaWx]

We need to have a better idea on where ENSO will be (among other things) before we can delve into fall/winter analogs.

Yeah lots of speculation at this point still have to see how this summer goes before anything. November’s about 5 months out from now lots can change.

[Cloud]

Slightly foggy drive this morning through Seattle. Clears up though after Bellevue.

[Front Ranger]

Looking more likely the long weekend will suck donkey b@lls.

 

With each model run it gets cooler and more showery each day.

 

The last two Memorial Day weekends there have been warm and dry. Due for one with rain.

[TT-SEA]

The last two Memorial Day weekends there have been warm and dry. Due for one with rain.

There is no such thing as being due!

 

And its 3 days... does not have to be one or the other. It can be both.

[Front Ranger]

There is no such thing as being due!

 

And its 3 days... does not have to be one or the other. It can be both.

My point was the last two have had no rain.

[ShawniganLake]

One thing I’ve wanted this year is a wet November. But if Phil is right with his analogs, that could mean bad news for fall precipitation.

 

Here are the possible analogs Phil listed in order of accuracy:

 

1997 - wet October, but drier than average November and dry December

2002 - pathetically dry October and November

1978 - pathetically dry OND

1990 - wet October, dry Nov-Dec

1991 - fairly normal fall precip

 

1993 (volcano contaminated but a decent match otherwise) - pathetically dry Oct-Nov

 

The biggest trend here is a dry November. All the best analogs show a dry November.

 

#UhOh

It’s May 23rd

[Omegaraptor]

Well, all I want is an actually wet winter. But of course Portland can’t deliver while we watch everything south of 45°N getting pounded by rain and storms.

 

Portland being the land of endless rain is one of the biggest weather lies there is.

[MossMan]

November 2006 featured a brief cold outbreak at the end of the month. Also January 2007 that one was a bit more prolonged though. Had a week stretch of cold weather here.

My top winter event ever...Nov 2006. Was absolutely epic in my area.

[ShawniganLake]

Well, all I want is an actually wet winter. But of course Portland can’t deliver while we watch everything south of 45°N getting pounded by rain and storms.

 

Portland being the land of endless rain is one of the biggest weather lies there is.

November is a Fall month. Regardless, it’s pointless trying to speculate at this point. As Was mentioned, let’s see what ENSO does, the potential Nino seems to be floundering at this point.

[antipex]

November is a Fall month. Regardless, it’s pointless trying to speculate at this point. As Was mentioned, let’s see what ENSO does, the potential Nino seems to be floundering at this point.

 

I would argue that November is climatologically closer to a winter month here given that it has our highest average precipitation, and is generally cool, wet, and cloudy – winter weather in mild PNW climates. It can also snow anytime during the month.

[TacomaWaWx]

My top winter event ever...Nov 2006. Was absolutely epic in my area.

I was only 7 at the time so I don’t remember it extremely well. I do remember it though was a very brief cold spell but it literally froze all of the roads with an inch of ice all in my apartment complex. Only lead to one sub freezing high temp on the 28th which was 29 degrees. It’s the earliest winter storm I can remember in my life.

[TacomaWaWx]

I would argue that November is climatologically closer to a winter month here given that it has our highest average precipitation, and is generally cool, wet, and cloudy – winter weather in mild PNW climates. It can also snow anytime during the month.

Yeah I’ve seen it snow here on 11/3/17. There’s been a real lack of significant cold outbreaks in November in recent years. Nothing significant since 2010. Just minor snowfalls of less than an inch here in 2014 and 2017.

[ShawniganLake]

I would argue that November is climatologically closer to a winter month here given that it has our highest average precipitation, and is generally cool, wet, and cloudy – winter weather in mild PNW climates. It can also snow anytime during the month.

How many months do you consider to be winter then. February means are much colder than November.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF shows a batch of rain moving from north to the south during the day on Saturday... so that will be a cool, wet day.

 

But it still showing a return to warmer and sunnier weather for Sunday and Monday.    For the Seattle area... it looks like low to mid 70s on Sunday and then probably into the low 80s on Monday. 

 

So we might get 2/3rds of the holiday weekend for outdoor activities.

[TacomaWaWx]

The 12Z ECMWF shows a batch of rain moving from north to the south during the day on Saturday... so that will be a cool, wet day.

 

But it still showing a return to warmer and sunnier weather for Sunday and Monday. For the Seattle area it looks like low to mid 70s on Sunday and then probably into the low 80s on Monday.

 

So we might get 2/3rds of the holiday weekend for outdoor activities.

Hopefully atleast one of them is good enough to enjoy.

[Front Ranger]

November is a Fall month. Regardless, it’s pointless trying to speculate at this point. As Was mentioned, let’s see what ENSO does, the potential Nino seems to be floundering at this point.

 

Yeah, will take quite a turnaround soon for 1997 to be a top analog.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully atleast one of them is good enough to enjoy.

 

 

Its Thursday now... you would think the models have settled on a solution for the weekend.

[TacomaWaWx]

Its Thursday now... you would think the models have settled on a solution for the weekend.

Yeah it would be nice to know by now. I’m trying to figure out what day I’m kayaking out to McMicken Island out by allyn and harstine Island would be nice to know by now.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah I’ve seen it snow here on 11/3/17. There’s been a real lack of significant cold outbreaks in November in recent years. Nothing significant since 2010. Just minor snowfalls of less than an inch here in 2014 and 2017.

 

November has been more "normal" by long term standards since then. From 1950 to present, major cold outbreaks in November only happened maybe once every 10 years on average.

[TacomaWaWx]

November has been more "normal" by long term standards since then. From 1950 to present, major cold outbreaks in November only happened maybe once 10 years on average.

Yeah I know it’s definitely not as common to get a cold outbreak in November. Like shawnigan lake said November has higher average temps than the other winter months. We will get another cold outbreak sometime in the future in November.

[TacomaWaWx]

November is a Fall month. Regardless, it’s pointless trying to speculate at this point. As Was mentioned, let’s see what ENSO does, the potential Nino seems to be floundering at this point.

Signals out over the pacific have been pointing towards more La Niña like conditions going on currently than El Niño. Could change but it hasn’t been looking Niñoish this far.

[Omegaraptor]

Signals out over the pacific have been pointing towards more La Niña like conditions going on currently than El Niño. Could change but it hasn’t been looking Niñoish this far.

Interesting. Wonder what the closest analogs are now.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is also sunny and warm all of next week... with a trough moving in next Sunday on this run.    Vastly different than the GFS has been showing.

 

The EPS agrees with the ECMWF on recent runs.  

[MossMan]

I was only 7 at the time so I don’t remember it extremely well. I do remember it though was a very brief cold spell but it literally froze all of the roads with an inch of ice all in my apartment complex. Only lead to one sub freezing high temp on the 28th which was 29 degrees. It’s the earliest winter storm I can remember in my life.

It was much more memorable from Marysville north. I was down in Olympia that Sunday afternoon and it was about 48 degrees with a south wind blowing, get to North Seattle and had a little rain/snow mix, get to Everett and all snow but not sticking, get to my exit at the time (Smokey Point) and it was a whiteout, roads covered with several inches of snow, no power and trees/power lines down everywhere. 18” of heavy wet snow fell before the arctic front moved through. No power for nearly a week and the tree damage was insane.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and 71 here at noon... should make it into the mid to upper 70s today.  

 

And then we wait until Sunday for nice weather to return.  

[TacomaWaWx]

It was much more memorable from Marysville north. I was down in Olympia that Sunday afternoon and it was about 48 degrees with a south wind blowing, get to North Seattle and had a little rain/snow mix, get to Everett and all snow but not sticking, get to my exit at the time (Smokey Point) and it was a whiteout, roads covered with several inches of snow, no power and trees/power lines down everywhere. 18” of heavy wet snow fell before the arctic front moved through. No power for nearly a week and the tree damage was insane.

Yeah sometimes whatcom county really gets slammed hard while the rest of western WA gets nil. It was only a 3 inches of snow here from what I can remember. Overall the 06-07 winter was crazy. This last winter was right there with it in my opinion.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sunny and 71 here at noon... should make it into the mid to upper 70s today.

 

And then we wait until Sunday for nice weather to return.

only up to 58 degrees here due to the fog hanging on for awhile but it’s warming up now that the suns been out. Beautiful day today though!

[Omegaraptor]

Clouds have broken up a ton in the past hour.

[Omegaraptor]

So will this summer be most like 1954, 1983, or 1993?

 

So I actually did look into 1954, the year without a summer, and wow. There was no volcanism like in 83 or 93. The stars and molecules just aligned perfectly that year in a way that probably has a recurrence rate of hundreds of years. The same extreme troughing pattern just persisted for three straight months. The hottest day that year was 86 in mid May.

[Phil]

(OT post). A monster storm just blew through here. All kinds of crazy colors in the sky..orange, teal, blue, black, etc. Winds were relentless for 10-15mins..just a thunderous roar that was deeper than a jet or a train. Haven’t heard it like that for awhile.

 

Also..this is impressive by DCA standards (they’re literally at sea level).

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?wfo=&sid=KDCA&num=168

 

[TacomaWaWx]

(OT post). A monster storm just blew through here. All kinds of crazy colors in the sky..orange, teal, blue, black, etc. Winds were relentless for 10-15mins..just a thunderous roar that was deeper than a jet or a train. Haven’t heard it like that for awhile.

 

Also..this is impressive by DCA standards (they’re literally at sea level).

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?wfo=&sid=KDCA&num=168

 

D**n 70mph that’s insane. Right through DC too.

[James Jones]

So will this summer be most like 1954, 1983, or 1993?

 

So I actually did look into 1954, the year without a summer, and wow. There was no volcanism like in 83 or 93. The stars and molecules just aligned perfectly that year in a way that probably has a recurrence rate of hundreds of years. The same extreme troughing pattern just persisted for three straight months. The hottest day that year was 86 in mid May.

 

That summer was an astounding anomaly, only year on record to not hit 90 even looking at downtown Portland's records back to 1875. The warmest temp in all of JJA was an incredible 82. I wouldn't want a summers like that to occur often but it would be really interesting to experience it once.

 

I looked through the sky conditions during that summer one time and it was amazingly overcast, there were only a handful of partly cloudy/clear days. For the most part the best you could count on for sun was afternoon/evening clearing but that wasn't reliable. Tim would have completely lost his mind, 2010 was child's play in comparison.