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May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW


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This year is a dead ringer for last spring. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This year is a dead ringer for last spring. 

 

It's almost as if it's the new normal...

 

1539458136743.jpg

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Sun hasn’t really been able to penetrate the clouds here fully still just a mostly cloudy day. Should be plenty of sun in the forecast for awhile so no big deal.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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According to Kevin Martin and CraigOmahaWX we will never see another drop of rain...ever.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Quite the busy day on the forum!

Currently 42 degrees and .02” in the rain gauge for the day.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Quite the busy day on the forum!

Currently 42 degrees and .02” in the rain gauge for the day.

it’s going to take some type of severe weather like a windstorm or t-storm to energize the chat. Hoping this year we get a 5/4/17 style event again.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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It’ll be interesting to see how this translates to our weather. I’d be happy if it meant a bit more rain and no 90 degree days. Doubt it though

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Very possible no rain falls during the month of May. Ensembles take us to the 20th now and the majority show no precip. Absolutely unbelievable. #newnormal. #climateofdoom.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Very possible no rain falls during the month of May. Ensembles take us to the 20th now and the majority show no precip. Absolutely unbelievable. #newnormal. #climateofdoom.

If I made a statement like this on the 3rd day of a month about rain every day for the rest of the month... the mocking would be ruthless. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interesting. I didn’t know Tulip Poplars grew in Seattle. Not exactly a great climate for them. #HumidSubtropical

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattle-neighbors-band-together-against-developer-to-save-exceptional-tree/

had a huge one in my yard growing up and was amazing. There is also a big one down the street from our house. Really cool trees when they bloom.
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Very possible no rain falls during the month of May. Ensembles take us to the 20th now and the majority show no precip. Absolutely unbelievable. #newnormal. #climateofdoom.

Maybe it’ll rain at the end of the month or a bit next month. Either way up north here apparently there expecting Ross lake in the north cascades to be an estimated 25’ below normal due to the low amount of precip this year so far north of Seattle and most of Olympic National Park is around 50% of normal snowpack. It’s not the end of the world all of this but the water and snowpack situations aren’t great. Driest start to a year here since 2008. Definitely would help out getting some rain soon.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Only hotter and drier from here...is your body ready?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Very possible no rain falls during the month of May. Ensembles take us to the 20th now and the majority show no precip. Absolutely unbelievable. #newnormal. #climateofdoom.

Rain will fall this month. And rain will fall in June.

 

The panic in here is hilarious.

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Perfect weather for working in the yard today! Overcast, a little breezy, and fairly mild.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Interesting thoughts from Mark Nelsen. 

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2019/05/02/another-unusually-warm-dry-start-to-may/

 

"But now things are getting strange again…

 

During the past two weeks we’ve seen little/no rain for most of us west of the Cascades.

 

1. That DOES sometimes happen in the springtime for a week or so, but dry spells to two weeks are unusual.

 

2. Now add in another week of dry weather on the way and that’s VERY unusual.  I just took a look at rain records here in Portland.  This is crazy.  Take the last two weeks of April, then add in these first 9 days of May (assuming little/no rain falls through next Thursday).

 

3. This year is the driest, followed by…last year!

 

Three of the five driest late April through early May periods have been in the past few years.  That’s 2019, 2018, & 2015.    We know what happened in those other two years…very warm/hot summers.

 

We have also seen 6 consecutive dry Mays in Oregon Climate Zone #2 (lower elevations west of Cascades).  That’s after the memorable chilly & wet springs 2010-2012

 

capture-1.png?w=450

This does make me suspect (along with other evidence) that our warming/changing climate has a part in this.  Anecdotally, it seems we are seeing more episodes of upper-level ridging near/over the west coast of North America the past 5-6 years.  Remember last winter we (again) didn’t have any sort of typical stormy westerly flow.  The action (snow & cold) came from a big ridge to our west and cold northerly flow coming out of Canada.  Also it seems we are seeing higher “upper-level heights” in the warm season.  In this case everything would be pushed to the north; Portland’s warm season weather would become more like Roseburg.  Then Roseburg is more like Medford etc…  Again, this is anecdotal and based on what I’ve seen all these years forecasting in our area.

 

As Pete Ferryman said yesterday, maybe the old saying “summer begins on July 5th” will disappear in time.  We’ll see."

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Interesting thoughts from Mark Nelsen.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2019/05/02/another-unusually-warm-dry-start-to-may/

"But now things are getting strange again…

During the past two weeks we’ve seen little/no rain for most of us west of the Cascades.

1. That DOES sometimes happen in the springtime for a week or so, but dry spells to two weeks are unusual.

2. Now add in another week of dry weather on the way and that’s VERY unusual. I just took a look at rain records here in Portland. This is crazy. Take the last two weeks of April, then add in these first 9 days of May (assuming little/no rain falls through next Thursday).

3. This year is the driest, followed by…last year!

Three of the five driest late April through early May periods have been in the past few years. That’s 2019, 2018, & 2015. We know what happened in those other two years…very warm/hot summers.

We have also seen 6 consecutive dry Mays in Oregon Climate Zone #2 (lower elevations west of Cascades). That’s after the memorable chilly & wet springs 2010-2012

capture-1.png?w=450

This does make me suspect (along with other evidence) that our warming/changing climate has a part in this. Anecdotally, it seems we are seeing more episodes of upper-level ridging near/over the west coast of North America the past 5-6 years. Remember last winter we (again) didn’t have any sort of typical stormy westerly flow. The action (snow & cold) came from a big ridge to our west and cold northerly flow coming out of Canada. Also it seems we are seeing higher “upper-level heights” in the warm season. In this case everything would be pushed to the north; Portland’s warm season weather would become more like Roseburg. Then Roseburg is more like Medford etc… Again, this is anecdotal and based on what I’ve seen all these years forecasting in our area.

As Pete Ferryman said yesterday, maybe the old saying “summer begins on July 5th” will disappear in time. We’ll see."

But the “trigger” for the ridging is completely different this year versus last year and 2015.

 

There is actually a narrow z-cell structure now with low pass subsidence developing over the WP. That’s the opposite of last year and 2017/15/14, so when the trailing MJO axis leaves West-Central Pacific later this month, we’ll enter into a 1990s type +ENSO pattern with more GOA troughing/zonal flow and moisture draw.

 

The 4-corners High is going to be pathetic this year.

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had a huge one in my yard growing up and was amazing. There is also a big one down the street from our house. Really cool trees when they bloom.

Ha, wow. I never thought they could do well out there given the lack of summer rainfall. I saw a few small/medium sized ones in west-Seattle last year, but I figured someone was watering them because they were as lush and green as the ones out here.

 

They’re actually the dominant native tree species here. Currently in full bloom for the most part. We have several in/around our property that are between 140-160ft even after losing their tops long ago..most have been growing since the mid/late 18th century, when this area was logged.

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Rain will fall this month. And rain will fall in June.

 

The panic in here is hilarious.

I don’t really see anyone panicking. The water situation isnt great but 2015 was worse and we got through that. I’ll be more worried if we go through the next couple months with little or no rain. It has been an overall dry start to the year so far so you can see why people would be a little worried since last year was dry.Maybe we will get some decent rain coming up. We could end up having a repeat of last year when May and June ended up dry with not much rain nobody knows how much it will rain or if it will rain in May or June.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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But the “trigger” for the ridging is completely different this year versus last year and 2015.

 

There is actually a narrow z-cell structure now with low pass subsidence developing over the WP. That’s the opposite of last year and 2017/15/14, so when the trailing MJO axis leaves West-Central Pacific later this month, we’ll enter into a 1990s type +ENSO pattern with more GOA troughing/zonal flow and moisture draw.

 

The 4-corners High is going to be pathetic this year.

You usually forecast hot PNW summers, so this is a good sign.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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You usually forecast hot PNW summers, so this is a good sign.

I did last year. And in both 2014 and 2015. And I think this one will end up on the warm side too, but for a different reason (more 1997-like..warm SW flow ahead of a growing GOA vortex type regime).

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I did last year. And in both 2014 and 2015. And I think this one will end up on the warm side too, but for a different reason (more 1997-like..warm SW flow ahead of a growing GOA vortex type regime).

 

1997 was a pretty cool summer for the US. Not really warm in the PNW, either.

 

cd97.122.160.235.122.21.11.13.prcp.png

A forum for the end of the world.

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