May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[TT-SEA]

Oh, so now there are exceptions? How many exceptions? How often do they happen?

 

Translated: The EPS is consistent, except for when it’s not consistent (or when it doesn’t show the outcome I want).

 

 

Of course there are exceptions.    We are talking about the big picture over the next 15 days.

 

Its been the most consistent model... by far.    And it carries more weight than individual model runs flailing all over the place.   The GFS has had many runs which have looked very troughy for next week.   But I knew that was probably not going to happen because the EPS was not showing it.    And that is proving to be true.   

 

If I want to get a good idea where the overall pattern is heading... the EPS mean is where I look.   And its usually right.   Its a much more steady guide than all of the other model noise.    Its not perfect... and you can easily find exceptions.   But I am looking at the big picture.

[TT-SEA]

And I have been reporting on the EPS showing another jet extension.   That is not really what I want... but I know its probably going to happen because the EPS is starting to consistently show it.    I know if the EPS is troughy and cold for the next 15 days... then its probably going to be troughy and cold.    Its not about what I want... its about getting an idea of what is actually coming next.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Gloomy day today so far high of 57. No rain has fallen just some drizzle this morning. Should be some rain tomorrow though. Gfs shows about 0.05” of rain tomorrow afternoon and about 0.15” over the next 10 days here. Shows most places getting 0.10-0.40” of rain in Western WA and OR during the same period. Could be another year that June is wetter than May this year.

[TacomaWaWx]

Some good news is that currently this is the lowest coverage of drought conditions across the entire United States in the last 20 years apparently. However western Washington has been one of the driest spots in the country. Interesting how the evergreen state is drier than many places this year.

[TT-SEA]

Some good news is that currently this is the lowest coverage of drought conditions across the entire United States in the last 20 years apparently. However western Washington has been one of the driest spots in the country. Interesting how the evergreen state is drier than many places this year.

 

 

Remember Phil telling us how wet it was going to be once that jet extension arrived?    And how most of us were pointing out that bulk of the precip was going to be focused on CA?    

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful out now that the clouds have mostly burned off. Pleasant 63F.

[Phil]

Remember Phil telling us how wet it was going to be once that jet extension arrived? And how most of us were pointing out that bulk of the precip was going to be focused on CA?

 

Why include the ridgy first 10 days of May? That was before the jet extension.

 

Nice try, but everyone sees right through you.

[TT-SEA]

Why include the ridgy first 10 days of May?

 

Nice try, but everyone sees right through you.

 

 

OK... here is the last week.    Same idea.   Most of the precip has been focused in CA.   Some areas up here were below normal even during the main jet extension period.    

 

 

[Phil]

Precipitation over the last week, and the last 2 weeks.

 

Wetter than average across most areas.

 

[Phil]

OK... here is the last week. Same idea. Most of the precip has been focused in CA. Some areas up here were below normal even during the main jet extension period.

 

 

Okay, but my forecast was for the monthly totals over the PNW to finish within ~ 1/2” of average in most areas. Let’s see what happens..I’m sure there will be a few random stations where it misses...but that’s irrelevant to the bigger picture. Impossible to nail every station.

[TT-SEA]

Precipitation over the last week, and the last 2 weeks.

 

Wetter than average across most areas.

 

 

 

 

And still below normal for a good chunk of western WA... even when looking at the wettest period.  

 

That was not what was promised... we were supposed to be way above normal for 10-14 days and that would offset the dry start to the month.     But most of us knew that was not a really wet pattern up here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Remember Phil telling us how wet it was going to be once that jet extension arrived? And how most of us were pointing out that bulk of the precip was going to be focused on CA?

 

He was the first to say there was going to be a strong jet extension. However it was just pointed in the wrong place. He was right about it being strong, California has had some exceptional rain totals. Just didn’t amount to much up in the northwest. The sierras have exceptional snow many places are going to have great skiing conditions for awhile.

[TT-SEA]

He was the first to say there was going to be a strong jet extension. However it was just pointed in the wrong place. He was right about it being strong, California has had some exceptional rain totals. Just didn’t amount to much up in the northwest. The sierras have exceptional snow many places are going to have great skiing conditions for awhile.

 

 

Yep... Phil is great at macro level stuff.    Never said otherwise. 

 

His desire to troll me endlessly gets in the way of his predictions though.    I live in his head.  

[TacomaWaWx]

[Timmy Supercell]

Stronger sun angles than early spring with warmer temps aloft, frequent cut-off low activity, and fairly transient 500mb patterns as opposed to the more stable Four Corners/NE Pacific high pressure driven regime of mid-summer.

 

Cold core thunderstorm activity requires strong upper level troughing, and warm core thunderstorm activity requires diffluence resulting from an upper level trigger overriding offshore flow. May and June is the time of year where we can easily see both, along with September. 

 

Some years the lowlands can see a big spike in Oct/Nov, especially towards the coast of SW WA/NW OR. 2016 and 2009 are some great examples that came off the top of my head.

 

I have seen a handful of times where May mostly favors eastern Oregon when convection transitions to warm core. If I am correct, most t'storms west of the cascades are cold core.

[GHweatherChris]

Yep... Phil is great at macro level stuff. Never said otherwise.

 

His desire to troll me endlessly gets in the way of his predictions though. I live in his head.

Your infatuation with you living in his head is hands down worse, just sayin....

[TT-SEA]

Your infatuation with you living in his head is hands down worse, just sayin....

 

 

 

OK.  

[Timmy Supercell]

PDX definitely had a decent storm (if of course we’re talking about the 6/4/9 thunderstorm), with wind gusts 45-60 and heavy rain in some areas. Not as much lightning as some areas, but still...

 

Immediate Portland area and vicinity was largely a non-severe event but may have gotten close to that criteria. Nonetheless was still amazing that the whole Willamette Valley practically had a severe thunderstorm, and it became tornadic just south of Salem. This is still the last warm-core produced tornado west of the mountains.

[MossMan]

Been quite the dreary .03” dark dank day! If it’s going to be crappy I would rather have a .50” or more...this all day dribble is very non productive.

[TacomaWaWx]

Been quite the dreary .03” dark dank day! If it’s going to be crappy I would rather have a .50” or more...this all day dribble is very non productive.

Yeah id much rather it be sunny than overcast and drizzly. Cloudy days or days with constant non-meaningful rain suck.

[TacomaWaWx]

Only made it to 57 degrees today. Just cloudy and no rainfall whatsoever.

[TT-SEA]

Not bad...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Now that I complain about the clouds there’s actually some blue skies popping out.

[BLI snowman]

Some years the lowlands can see a big spike in Oct/Nov, especially towards the coast of SW WA/NW OR. 2016 and 2009 are some great examples that came off the top of my head.

 

I have seen a handful of times where May mostly favors eastern Oregon when convection transitions to warm core. If I am correct, most t'storms west of the cascades are cold core.

 

I would concur, probably 60-75%.

[MossMan]

Well at least the deer seem to be enjoying the damp day.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice cumulonimbus buildups to my south and east this evening with an anvil too. Redding appears to have been under an SVR warning.

 

Next few days I have a chance of t'storms as well.

[ShawniganLake]

Sun breaks and mid 60s here today.

[TacomaWaWx]

Well after tomorrow there should be a decent stretch of nice weather. Will be interesting to see if a wetter stretch of weather follows in early-mid June or not. Either way sun and upper 60s to mid 70s should make everyone happy hopefully. I’m certainly going to enjoy it better than 85+ degree heat.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday and Monday per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

 

 

 

 

And total rain with the system tomorrow...

 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is dry and warm overall after tomorrow through the end of the run.

[TT-SEA]

Here is total precip for days 3-10... central and eastern Oregon should be wet.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Haven’t seen Brett Anderson’s maps in awhile

 

 

 

Long-range weather pattern update

 

By Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

5/23/2019, 2:34:45 PM

Share this article:

Fairly extreme pattern ongoing across the Lower 48 states with an unusually strong trough bringing very cool and showery weather to the west with low snow levels. In the East, a strong ridge will keep the Southeast United States hot with record high temperatures. In between, more rounds of severe weather and flooding from the central U.S. into the Midwest.

Things are a bit more tranquil here in Canada. Signals are strong for another significant warmup with little precipitation for western Canada, especially in BC and northern Alberta next week.

We will be releasing the summer 2019 Canada outlook next week, and I certainly have concerns about the potential for an extended stretch of very warm and dry conditions over portions of the west this summer.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is dry and warm overall after tomorrow through the end of the run.

 

 

The 00z EPS did not agree with the ECMWF for day 9 and 10. 

 

Its looks more zonal by day 10... which is consistent with its 12Z run.

 

 

 

 

And still shows the troughiness retrograding later in the run. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kind of a damp morning. Was 44 with mist when I woke up. 48 now. 

[TacomaWaWx]

51 and cloudy here this morning. No rain yet here. Light southerly winds.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RIP Claremore....
 

[950 am - 5/25/19] UPDATE: MAJOR flooding now forecast the Verdigris R at Claremore. Forecast crest near 46.0 feet will exceed flood of 10/14/1986, and will be highest since Oologah Dam was completed in 1963!

[Deweydog]

RIP Claremore....

 

[950 am - 5/25/19] UPDATE: MAJOR flooding now forecast the Verdigris R at Claremore. Forecast crest near 46.0 feet will exceed flood of 10/14/1986, and will be highest since Oologah Dam was completed in 1963!

So jealous...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Mostly cloudy in the s valley.  Headed up the freeway to Portland this afternoon so it'll be a nice profile of the valley for today.

[Phil]

Haven’t seen Brett Anderson’s maps in awhile

 

 

 

Long-range weather pattern update

 

By Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

5/23/2019, 2:34:45 PM

Share this article:

Fairly extreme pattern ongoing across the Lower 48 states with an unusually strong trough bringing very cool and showery weather to the west with low snow levels. In the East, a strong ridge will keep the Southeast United States hot with record high temperatures. In between, more rounds of severe weather and flooding from the central U.S. into the Midwest.

Things are a bit more tranquil here in Canada. Signals are strong for another significant warmup with little precipitation for western Canada, especially in BC and northern Alberta next week.

We will be releasing the summer 2019 Canada outlook next week, and I certainly have concerns about the potential for an extended stretch of very warm and dry conditions over portions of the west this summer. B303F718-3693-40C4-90CE-E5CCFB2955AD.png 5E366AAE-09AE-4949-9FD3-561909C9DF7A.png 8DA03F20-DDDD-4064-A2DC-4ABDAEBED201.png

Careful with the EPS weeklies when initializing under an EHEM MJO and monsoonal inception. They tend to default to that western ridge look that only verifies as a transient intraseasonal mode in reality.

[Geos]

Sprinkles have started here. Only 53 as of 11:30. 

 

Crazy - the Sierra Nevada are expecting more snow - and it's almost June!