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Summer Forecast Contest 2019


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Phil is pretty much the only one going with a close to seasonal June. (PNW) Setting himself up to look really smart or really not

I’m probably okayish at OLM, but UHI likely screwed me over at SEA (and possibly PDX too).

 

I keep underestimating how phony SEA’s numbers are.

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I’m probably okay at OLM, but UHI likely screwed me over at SEA (and possibly PDX too).

 

I keep underestimating how phony SEA’s numbers are.

 

Maybe around 1.5 degrees.    

 

Pretty simple to factor in... its not like its 20 degrees off. 

 

Most people cannot even discern a 1.5 degree difference.   Not that big of a deal.    ;)  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Maybe around 1.5 degrees.

 

Pretty simple to factor in... its not like its 20 degrees off.

 

Most people cannot even discern a 1.5 degree difference. Not that big of a deal. ;)

1.5 degrees is significant over an entire month or year, and probably would be noticeable. Just like a 1.5 degree rise in global temperatures is significant on that scale even though the number itself is small at face value. But you already know all of this.

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1.5 degrees is significant over an entire month or year, and probably would be noticeable. Just like a 1.5 degree rise in global temperatures is significant on that scale even though the number itself is small at face value. But you already know all of this.

 

I realize its statistically important.   But if SEA is reporting 79 degrees and it would have been 77.5 degrees without UHI... that is not that noticeable.     

 

Either way... its a known quantity.    Phil acts like its off by 10+ degrees.    :rolleyes:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA: +1, +1.5, +2

 

OLM: 0.0, +0.5, +1

 

PDX: +0.5, +1, +1.5

 

CQT: -1, 0.5, 0.5

 

DEN: -1, -1, 0

 

DCA: +2, +1, +3

 

 

And your excuse for SEA does not hold up... you factored in UHI.      You were too cool for both OLM and SEA... but the next week will probably bring it closer.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And your excuse for SEA does not hold up... you factored in UHI. You were too cool for both OLM and SEA... but the next week will probably bring it closer.

This post makes zero sense. I factored for UHI and still underestimated it (from the looks of it).

 

And what makes you think I’m too cold at OLM? They were at +2.6 just five days ago, now they’re at +1.6. Should finish at +0.5 give or take a few tenths, which would be very close to average.

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DCA running a whopping +.2!

A negative departure there would have been hilarious. But alas, all good things must come to an end. :(

 

That anomaly is gonna go berserk at the last minute.

 

yn2g99E.png

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A negative departure there would have been hilarious.

 

But alas, all good things must come to an end. :( That anomaly is gonna go berserk last minute.

 

yn2g99E.png

 

 

That looks colder than normal.

 

I thought normal was 110/95 with a dewpoint either side of 100?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That looks colder than normal.

 

I thought normal was 110/95 with a dewpoint either side of 100?

Haha. You’re talking about North Bend, right?

 

My condolences on the -45*F anomalies this week. :P

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In other news, the 12z ECMWF has some impressively cool afternoons for PDX later this week.

 

hoaL6ol.png

Side note... the 4th of July "high" shown there is actually just the high through 5 a.m. that day.

 

It will be in the 80s that day if it has the 500mb pattern right.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Side note... the 4th of July "high" shown there is actually just the high through 5 a.m. that day.

 

It will be in the 80s that day if it has the 500mb pattern right.

Yes, I’m aware (240hrs from 12z today = 12z on 7/4).

 

That’s why I didn’t mention the last day. :)

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Yes, I’m aware (240hrs from 12z today = 12z on 7/4).

 

That’s why I didn’t mention the last day. :)

 

 

Was not really meant for you... just for clarification.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So stupid how -1 on the high and -1 on the low still averages to 0 because of the idiotic rounding procedure.

 

1aU6kC8.jpg

 

And OLM.. -2 on the high, +2 on the low, but +1 overall. It’s like they actively seek positive departures.

 

ZGjx0yx.jpg

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So stupid how -1 on the high and -1 on the low still averages to 0 because of the idiotic rounding procedure.

 

And OLM.. -2 on the high, +2 on the low, but +1 overall. It’s like they actively seek positive departures.

 

 

SEA ended up with -0.7 on NOWdata.

 

Looks like the OLM departure number was corrected to -1. Or -1.4 on NOWdata. Conspiracy over!

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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SEA ended up with -0.7 on NOWdata.

 

Looks like the OLM departure number was corrected to -1. Or -1.4 on NOWdata. Conspiracy over!

 

And the daily departures are not meaningful in terms of the monthly departure.    They don't just add up the daily departures.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Could finally have a negative departure @ DCA today. Still only 73*F as of 130pm.

 

Crapload of rain..3.3” fell in just 1 hour. Between 5-6” in nearby areas. That’s a lot of water.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?wfo=&sid=KDCA&num=168

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  • 1 month later...

Now approaching 50 days above 90*F @ DCA. Probably less than 10 days under 90*F since late June. ☹️

 

Looks like many more to come as well. I think 60+ is within reach this year.

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What's the record?

I think (for the modern DCA location) it’s 67 days in 2010 but I’m not 100% sure about that.

 

But there’s not much variance. Even “cool” summers such as 2013 and 2014 rack up 25+ days above 90*F.

 

NkzDzNx.jpg

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Zero math has been done on my end.

I was kidding, man. All I know is that I probably came in last. #UHIfail

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Primary reason for my busts..nighttime lows. It has been two months since DCA fell below 65*F. The 7th longest stretch on record. Might finally happen tonight!

 

Edit: Yay, just barely did it. Fell to 64*F last night, which is the coldest low since June 23rd & just the 10th sub-70*F low since the summer solstice. Lol..

 

Ote2GaJ.jpg

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Congrats to Shawinigan. Seconded re: appreciation for the quick scoring.

 

I didn’t do as terrible in the PNW as I thought I would. Turns out it was DEN and DCA (lol) that killed me. For some reason DCA has been running exceptionally warm at night lately. Not sure what happened @ DEN. Probably just a typical pattern bust.

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