Anti Marine Layer Posted June 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 Downtown L.A. is still 0.6 above normal even with all of the June Gloom we've had, mainly to above normal lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 Phil is pretty much the only one going with a close to seasonal June. (PNW) Setting himself up to look really smart or really notI’m probably okayish at OLM, but UHI likely screwed me over at SEA (and possibly PDX too). I keep underestimating how phony SEA’s numbers are. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 I’m probably okay at OLM, but UHI likely screwed me over at SEA (and possibly PDX too). I keep underestimating how phony SEA’s numbers are. Maybe around 1.5 degrees. Pretty simple to factor in... its not like its 20 degrees off. Most people cannot even discern a 1.5 degree difference. Not that big of a deal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 Maybe around 1.5 degrees. Pretty simple to factor in... its not like its 20 degrees off. Most people cannot even discern a 1.5 degree difference. Not that big of a deal. 1.5 degrees is significant over an entire month or year, and probably would be noticeable. Just like a 1.5 degree rise in global temperatures is significant on that scale even though the number itself is small at face value. But you already know all of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 1.5 degrees is significant over an entire month or year, and probably would be noticeable. Just like a 1.5 degree rise in global temperatures is significant on that scale even though the number itself is small at face value. But you already know all of this. I realize its statistically important. But if SEA is reporting 79 degrees and it would have been 77.5 degrees without UHI... that is not that noticeable. Either way... its a known quantity. Phil acts like its off by 10+ degrees. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 SEA: +1, +1.5, +2 OLM: 0.0, +0.5, +1 PDX: +0.5, +1, +1.5 CQT: -1, 0.5, 0.5 DEN: -1, -1, 0 DCA: +2, +1, +3 And your excuse for SEA does not hold up... you factored in UHI. You were too cool for both OLM and SEA... but the next week will probably bring it closer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 And your excuse for SEA does not hold up... you factored in UHI. You were too cool for both OLM and SEA... but the next week will probably bring it closer.This post makes zero sense. I factored for UHI and still underestimated it (from the looks of it). And what makes you think I’m too cold at OLM? They were at +2.6 just five days ago, now they’re at +1.6. Should finish at +0.5 give or take a few tenths, which would be very close to average. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 DCA running a whopping +.2! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 DCA running a whopping +.2!A negative departure there would have been hilarious. But alas, all good things must come to an end. That anomaly is gonna go berserk at the last minute. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 A negative departure there would have been hilarious. But alas, all good things must come to an end. That anomaly is gonna go berserk last minute. That looks colder than normal. I thought normal was 110/95 with a dewpoint either side of 100? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 That looks colder than normal. I thought normal was 110/95 with a dewpoint either side of 100?Haha. You’re talking about North Bend, right? My condolences on the -45*F anomalies this week. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 In other news, the 12z ECMWF has some impressively cool afternoons for PDX later this week. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 In other news, the 12z ECMWF has some impressively cool afternoons for PDX later this week. Side note... the 4th of July "high" shown there is actually just the high through 5 a.m. that day. It will be in the 80s that day if it has the 500mb pattern right. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 Side note... the 4th of July "high" shown there is actually just the high through 5 a.m. that day. It will be in the 80s that day if it has the 500mb pattern right.Yes, I’m aware (240hrs from 12z today = 12z on 7/4). That’s why I didn’t mention the last day. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 Yes, I’m aware (240hrs from 12z today = 12z on 7/4). That’s why I didn’t mention the last day. Was not really meant for you... just for clarification. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 In other news, the 12z ECMWF has some impressively cool afternoons for PDX later this week. Tack on the customary 5-10 degrees to account for its cool bias and not looking that impressive. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 So stupid how -1 on the high and -1 on the low still averages to 0 because of the idiotic rounding procedure. And OLM.. -2 on the high, +2 on the low, but +1 overall. It’s like they actively seek positive departures. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 So stupid how -1 on the high and -1 on the low still averages to 0 because of the idiotic rounding procedure. And OLM.. -2 on the high, +2 on the low, but +1 overall. It’s like they actively seek positive departures. SEA ended up with -0.7 on NOWdata. Looks like the OLM departure number was corrected to -1. Or -1.4 on NOWdata. Conspiracy over! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 SEA ended up with -0.7 on NOWdata. Looks like the OLM departure number was corrected to -1. Or -1.4 on NOWdata. Conspiracy over! And the daily departures are not meaningful in terms of the monthly departure. They don't just add up the daily departures. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2019 Report Share Posted July 1, 2019 Final June numbers: SEA +2.7 OLM +1.0 PDX +2.1 CQT +0.9 DEN -1.8 DCA +1.2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 8, 2019 Report Share Posted July 8, 2019 Could finally have a negative departure @ DCA today. Still only 73*F as of 130pm. Crapload of rain..3.3” fell in just 1 hour. Between 5-6” in nearby areas. That’s a lot of water. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?wfo=&sid=KDCA&num=168 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 17, 2019 Report Share Posted August 17, 2019 Now approaching 50 days above 90*F @ DCA. Probably less than 10 days under 90*F since late June. Looks like many more to come as well. I think 60+ is within reach this year. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 17, 2019 Report Share Posted August 17, 2019 Now approaching 50 days above 90*F @ DCA. Probably less than 10 days under 90*F since late June. Looks like many more to come as well. I think 60+ is within reach this year.What's the record? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 17, 2019 Report Share Posted August 17, 2019 What's the record?I think (for the modern DCA location) it’s 67 days in 2010 but I’m not 100% sure about that. But there’s not much variance. Even “cool” summers such as 2013 and 2014 rack up 25+ days above 90*F. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted August 18, 2019 Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 I think (for the modern DCA location) it’s 67 days in 2010 but I’m not 100% sure about that. But there’s not much variance. Even “cool” summers such as 2013 and 2014 rack up 25+ days above 90*F. Now I know why they call it the swamp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Welp, looks like yet another trophy to add to the case. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Welp, looks like yet another trophy to add to the case.You got this thing all wrapped up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Welp, looks like my first ever trophy! Yay me!Fixed, assuming you’ve done your math correctly. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Zero math has been done on my end. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Zero math has been done on my end.I was kidding, man. All I know is that I probably came in last. #UHIfail 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 24, 2019 Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 Primary reason for my busts..nighttime lows. It has been two months since DCA fell below 65*F. The 7th longest stretch on record. Might finally happen tonight! Edit: Yay, just barely did it. Fell to 64*F last night, which is the coldest low since June 23rd & just the 10th sub-70*F low since the summer solstice. Lol.. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 30, 2019 2 days remain. Hope to get the results by this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 31, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2019 Guesses are ready to be compared with the actual results. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Results are here. ShawniganLake is the winner. Congratulations ShawniganLake. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Thanks for taking the time to calculate these MR marine layer 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Congrats to Shawinigan. Seconded re: appreciation for the quick scoring. I didn’t do as terrible in the PNW as I thought I would. Turns out it was DEN and DCA (lol) that killed me. For some reason DCA has been running exceptionally warm at night lately. Not sure what happened @ DEN. Probably just a typical pattern bust. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Thanks for taking the time to calculate these MR marine layerYou're welcome. Congrats again on winning it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 1, 2019 Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 Looks like I’m tied for 3rd. I’ll take it considering I put zero work into my guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 2, 2019 Report Share Posted September 2, 2019 Sophomore slump for frontal snowsquall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 2, 2019 Report Share Posted September 2, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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