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June 2019 Observations and Discussion


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Folks, official met Summer '19 is around the corner!  What a ride its been since last Autumn and throughout this Spring.  I'm sure there are many members on here who are ready for a more tranquil pattern and enjoy some decent Summer weather. I know I'm certainly ready for Summer time BBQ's, Bon Fires, outdoor festivities, beach time and boating season...who wouldn't be???  The majority of our Sub has been stuck in a relentless active pattern since what seems ages ago.  However, I do expect things to calm down a bit over the next couple weeks, esp near the GL's/MW but those of you out farther west into the Plains and points South...well, the beat goes on unfortunately.  

 

Let's dive into the model world and see if there is any consensus going forward....

 

Taking a look at the CFSv2, it is trending more towards the idea of an amplified North American 500mb pattern which was on my mind about 7-10 days ago that lead me to believe the models were underscoring the blocking pattern.  So, here we are just a couple days away from June and the model is definitely trending drier for a lot of the MW/Upper MW ag belt region.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201906.gif

 

 

 

Generally speaking, temps are forecast to end up near normal for a change, except for the southern Plains where wetness shall continue.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201906.gif

 

 

 

The latest JMA weeklies also mirror what the CFSv2 is suggesting over the next 30 days....

Temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R28_1/Y201905.D2912_gl2.png

 

Precip...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R28_1/Y201905.D2912_gl0.png

 

 

 

Overall, I'm expecting a rather fantastic start to Summer around the GL's...no real heat or humidity...yet, so I fully anticipate some beautiful days ahead and some bouts of active weather later in the month.  Let's discuss....

 

 

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I forgot that yesterday was 13 years since some really weird clouds were spotted over Cedar Rapids. Nobody had ever seen clouds like these before, and there was no name for them at the time. In 2017,

The Royals-Tigers game in Omaha last night was fun and had beautiful weather. Was actually a bit chilly with the wind when I was up in the nosebleeds. In the 3rd inning, I hopped down to a seat behind

This is more like September stuff, and twice in a week's time is NOT typical June lake weather. Hoping it's a sign of something good later on..   URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Servi

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Here in Michigan almost all of the active weather has been to our south so far this year. That said it has been cloudy somewhat wet and cool in this area. Grand Rapids has yet to officially reach 80° this year. The latest first 80° on record is June 12 way back in 1924 and this year looks will be the latest since at least 1997 when the first 80 day happened on June 9th the average first 80° day over the years is April 30th and this year will join 1997, 1983. 1947 and 1924 as the latest date for the first 80 day. 

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In June, I am hoping to see at least one or more severe thunderstorms. May was a very wet month for sure, but all of the severe weather never got to Cedar Rapids. It mostly missed to our south and west. Not that I want a really bad storm, but I haven't seen a shelf cloud or hail bigger than pea size in quite some time. 

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Nice way to open up the first week of June...cool/crisp Monday morning commute next week...

 

Latest GFS suggesting highs struggling to reach 50F across the Lakes on Sunday as the Vortex feature tracks across MI...

 

gfs_z500_vort_ncus_14.png

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_14.png

 

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_16.png

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Opening June up with a pretty normal pre-sunrise temp of 63.1*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Waking up at dawn here, welcoming official met Summer with a very comfortable temp of 72F along with clear skies and calm winds, watching the sun rise and getting prepared to hike Camelback Mountain.  I love morning sunrises here in the valley as the sun creeps above the mountain ranges to my east.

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Hazy skies currently and warm w temps today hitting that 80 degree mark, if not better. Big storms could be rolling on in by pm, especially late. Also, the "Chill" is coming tomorrow w temps remaining in the 50s for highs and lows in the 30s.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Waking up at dawn here, welcoming official met Summer with a very comfortable temp of 72F along with clear skies and calm winds, watching the sun rise and getting prepared to hike Camelback Mountain.  I love morning sunrises here in the valley as the sun creeps above the mountain ranges to my east.

What I'd give for 2 weeks in the mountains!

 

We have rain returning Wednesday with Highs overt he next 10 days between 80 and 94*

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It certainly doesn't look too exciting through the first half of June, but we could use the break.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We hitting 94* this afternoon.

 

Humidity 47%

Dewpoint 68*

 

Uh, - Sticky

 

Rain forecast for Wednesday. ^_^

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Jaster buddy, seek shelter...this is coming towards ya.......

 

https://www.wunderground.com/severe/us/mi/marshall/49068

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Issued: 6:41 PM Jun. 1, 2019 – National Weather Service
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR CALHOUN AND EAST CENTRAL KALAMAZOO COUNTIES...

At 641 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles east of Brownlee Park to Climax, moving east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Albion... Marshall... Battle Creek...
Galesburg... Climax... Level Park-Oak Park...
Brownlee Park... Marengo... Augusta...
Pine Creek... Bedford... Ceresco...
Scotts...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&


TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

 
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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Hope everyone stays safe.

 

Just got hit with a sudden rain.

 

.35"

 

Temp 72*

Humidity 80%

Dewpoint 70*

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Jaster buddy, seek shelter...this is coming towards ya.......

 

https://www.wunderground.com/severe/us/mi/marshall/49068

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Issued: 6:41 PM Jun. 1, 2019 – National Weather Service
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT

FOR CALHOUN AND EAST CENTRAL KALAMAZOO COUNTIES...

 

At 641 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line

extending from 6 miles east of Brownlee Park to Climax, moving east

at 25 mph.

 

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

 

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail

damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind

damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

 

Locations impacted include...

Albion... Marshall... Battle Creek...

Galesburg... Climax... Level Park-Oak Park...

Brownlee Park... Marengo... Augusta...

Pine Creek... Bedford... Ceresco...

Scotts...

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a

building.

 

&&

 

 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE

HAIL...1.75IN

WIND...60MPH

 

 

 

Thanks for the heads-up Niko buddy! Ofc, this all blew up while I was in the shower. Fortunately, this weakened or split Marshall proper and we got only a few hail stones briefly here at home. Good thing too as my nicer ride was parked in the driveway this evening when it's normally garaged and safe from hailstones. I saw a poster in the local forum post about the golf ball hail he had at his place on the near north side of Battle Creek about 6:45 this eve. Lol, GRR was asleep at the wheel on this whole event. When I looked at my grid-cast about 8:30 this morning they were calling for a 60% chance of showers mainly in the evening or after dark. By 12:45, the first of 3 rounds of strong to severe T-storms were already hitting here! All here know I'm no fan of how that office handles winter headline-worthy events, but this is potentially even more damaging and dangerous #wx. Apparently lulled to sleep by endless rain-train spring, and now we get actual severe and it has truly snuck up on 'em. Tom's call for SWMI to have more severe after a several year drought looking like a safe bet.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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As Tom hikes the mountains of AZ, back here in da Mitt I'm gearing up for biking season! My first outing's tomorrow. Gonna take advantage of the cooler/dryer air mass swinging in after today's heat and humidity. Since winter I've been scouting some new pathways (courtesy of g-maps menu feature), most of which have sprung up in the past 5 or so years. Been scouting a particular one called the Fred Meijer Heartland Trail which runs through the Vestaburg State Game Area where numerous people have reported sighting a cryptid which the locals have dubbed the "Ronk". Combining hobbies is always ++fun. @Tom hopefully your #hiking was great buddy. I'm stoked about my day tomorrow. Picked up a new hybrid bike last year and didn't get enough riding in due to a very busy project on the work front. Trying to do better this summer tho..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Pardon the Off Top here, but during one of my late winter drives back in March, I happened upon a sign that kinda grabbed my attention. There were several all around this area. I later saw a poster explaining that there was a 2 year period of hyper-activity in and around this city in NMI thus they officially adopted the moniker:

 

20190331_BFCap2.jpg

 

#cryptomania!  :D

 

Oh, and a trivia tidbit, West Branch is Charleton Heston's home town. The rural forested hills are magnificent if you ever get up that way..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Careful in them woods!!

 

 

It's been rain off and on all afternoon with some heavier showers moving in right now.

Looks like we'll top off the day around 1".

 

It was sunny and hot around 2 today, then the storms hit. This is supposed to happen again on Wednesday.

Oddball late spring/summer so far. The spikette usually has turned off by now.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The number of CDD's this month will likely be very low as I'm seeing the summer pattern evolve over the next 10 days.  IMO, this month will feature anomalous high lat blocking which I think will last throughout the Summer as we continue to head deeper into the Solar Minimum.  Not to mention, the western North American ridge has, and will, keep a NW Flow into our Sub this month and likely persist this Summer.  If the modeling is right (which my gut feeling is leaning towards), it may be one of the shortest summers I've witnessed around here and a lot of our Sub.  Not a good combination for the ag belt regions.  With that being said, enjoy the breaks in the pattern which are forthcoming here over the next 2 weeks or so for the northern half of the Sub.

 

I'm going to label Week 2 as prime time #bonfire season....oh ya, I could already smell the burning wood throughout the neighborhood as some cool/chilly evenings are on the table for many of us.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

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As Tom hikes the mountains of AZ, back here in da Mitt I'm gearing up for biking season! My first outing's tomorrow. Gonna take advantage of the cooler/dryer air mass swinging in after today's heat and humidity. Since winter I've been scouting some new pathways (courtesy of g-maps menu feature), most of which have sprung up in the past 5 or so years. Been scouting a particular one called the Fred Meijer Heartland Trail which runs through the Vestaburg State Game Area where numerous people have reported sighting a cryptid which the locals have dubbed the "Ronk". Combining hobbies is always ++fun. @Tom hopefully your #hiking was great buddy. I'm stoked about my day tomorrow. Picked up a new hybrid bike last year and didn't get enough riding in due to a very busy project on the work front. Trying to do better this summer tho..

 

I had a great time tackling what is rated an "Extremely Difficult" hike at Camelback mountain.  It's been a couple years since I've been up the trail and forgot how tough it actually gets for the last 1/4 of the hike where your pulling yourself up boulders and steep rock formations.  Once you get to the top, the view is amazing on a day with clear visibility. 

 

 

Edit: For those who are interested, if you look at the upper right hand corner of the 3rd picture I posted, which shows the valley floor and the mountain ranges that are in the East Valley, our place is situated just beyond the first "mini" hill that comes off the larger mountain range towards the center of the pic.  The second larger mountain range back in the distance is called "4 peaks" for a good reason, as it has 4 peaks which you can see first hand but this picture doesn't clearly illustrate that.  You can sorta get an idea of the 4 peaks in the photo.

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Looking at rainfall distribution. Northeast Tx is getting more than its share and the Red River/Lake Texoma region is drenched.

 

We have 1 lake at flood stage. The lake near me has been pumping maximum and dropped 8' in the last week. The water flows into the Trinity Rive which is approaching maximum.

IMG_3743.PNG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I had 0.74″ of rain yesterday in 3 thunderstorms. It has been a while since our area has seen 3 thunderstorms in one day. The current temperature here is 56 with sunny skies. Cool temperatures in early June are not all that uncommon but that said the record low for Grand Rapids tomorrow morning is 38 that has happened 5 times with the last coming in 1977. so if Grand Rapids reaches 40 or below it will be one of the coldest June 3rds in recorded history.
 

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Pardon the Off Top here, but during one of my late winter drives back in March, I happened upon a sign that kinda grabbed my attention. There were several all around this area. I later saw a poster explaining that there was a 2 year period of hyper-activity in and around this city in NMI thus they officially adopted the moniker:

 

attachicon.gif20190331_BFCap2.jpg

 

#cryptomania!  :D

 

Oh, and a trivia tidbit, West Branch is Charleton Heston's home town. The rural forested hills are magnificent if you ever get up that way..

I have not been to West Branch in many  years. Back in the day I used to go there often there was a nice place to eat right were M 76 and M 55  came together not sure if anything is there at this time.

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Here at my house I had a overnight low of 38° of course that is not official and will not count. The official low at Grand Rapids last night was 40° that make today’s low tied for 3rd place on the all time coldest lows for this date the record low is 38 set 4 times the last time was in 1977 and in 2nd place is 39 set in 1945 and then 40 set in 1956, 1946, 1929 and now 2019.  

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My goodness, it's chilly outside!  We landed last night into ORD after a rather turbulent ride once we crossed over into the Plains states.  The captain went on the intercom and informed everyone we would be entering moderate turbulence and that it was!  While I had worse moments in the past, this was more of a constant shaking of the plane.

 

What a shock to my system.  Current temp in the mid 50's, indoor temp of 62F, yup...I just turned on the heat!  Crazy.  From leaving the heat of the desert SW and coming back to these temps, it's back to "hoodie" season.  It's nice to see everything green and lush around the neighborhood.

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Pardon the Off Top here, but during one of my late winter drives back in March, I happened upon a sign that kinda grabbed my attention. There were several all around this area. I later saw a poster explaining that there was a 2 year period of hyper-activity in and around this city in NMI thus they officially adopted the moniker:

 

attachicon.gif20190331_BFCap2.jpg

 

#cryptomania!  :D

 

Oh, and a trivia tidbit, West Branch is Charleton Heston's home town. The rural forested hills are magnificent if you ever get up that way..

:D

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Oh and all the repaired roads on 29 are again underwater. It doesn't look good for the for seeable future. In-laws are moving back in two weeks and I don't think they will have much luck coming back that way.

I drove down to KC last night from Omaha and the situation along the Missouri River flood plain is very dire. Seriously it looks like it’s 2011 all over again. This situation is so bad for those affected, and it really is causing some major detour pains for all of us commuters... even though this issue isn’t comparable to those that have had their homes and property underwater twice in three months.

 

It might be time for FEMA to clear the immediate river floodplain in certain spots and for IDOT (Iowa Dept of Transportation) to consider raising Interstate 29 in the future.

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I am really bowled over at these low temps up north. Really gob smacked.

 

At 88*, currently. We are forecast for ~ .50" Wednesday. We'll see.

 

But will the Northern Plains see a summer ?

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I drove down to KC last night from Omaha and the situation along the Missouri River flood plain is very dire. Seriously it looks like it’s 2011 all over again. This situation is so bad for those affected, and it really is causing some major detour pains for all of us commuters... even though this issue isn’t comparable to those that have had their homes and property underwater twice in three months.

 

It might be time for FEMA to clear the immediate river floodplain in certain spots and for IDOT (Iowa Dept of Transportation) to consider raising Interstate 29 in the future.

Did you take 29? Maps are saying impassable still. Also I was thinking along those lines with 29.
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Got my daily rain fix in. 30 hours of above average heat and humidity coming followed by what is appearing to be 13 or so days of cool.

 

Sounds like delayed summer here continues.

Got to get rid of the rain though. 2 more inches in 5 days is too much.

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It's great to be back in the swing of things, although, I'd like a little more sunshine and warmer weather and that looks to finally take place here later on today.  Temps are expected to top out near 80F with sunshine and a nice SW breeze. Should feel real nice after the past 24-36 hours of chilly weather since I touched down at ORD Sun night.

 

Are you guys enjoying the calmer weather pattern?  I'm glad that a lot of the MW/Plains states are drying out a bit during the opening week of June.  How long will this last???  Blocking this weekend is looking stronger around the GL's/MW region and this will allow the GOM tropical system to track farther south across the OV/App's region and at least provide Chicago with one good day on Saturday.  The Euro has been consistently keeping the rain away on Saturday and moreso towards downstate IL and the GFS is now beginning to cave that way.  I feel bad for those farmers in IL/IN who are probably not going to plant this year as fields I hear are like swamps.

 

That Greenland Block looks strong heading into next week...

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_6.png

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I picked up 0.19" of rain overnight, our first rain since May 29th.  It's possible we won't get any additional rain the rest of the week.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Southern Plains heading to 90* today and plenty of sun before we see scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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