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June 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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JMA Weeklies showing the northern half of our Sub can't catch a break in the pattern through the next 4 weeks.  The southern Plains may actually warm up and dry out a bit heading into July.  Let's see if this is a trend or just a "head fake".

 

Week 2 temps and precip...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201906.D1212_gl2.png

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201906.D1212_gl0.png

Weeks 3-4...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201906.D1212_gl2.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201906.D1212_gl0.png

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Here at Grand Rapids (and many other locations) 7 of the last 8 months have been seen temperatures below average. And the start of 2019 has see 5 months in a row of below average temperatures with a good chance that June will be the 6th in a row. As far as I can find that last time we started a year with 5 or more below average temperatures was in 2003,  In that year  only August, November and December were above average. So far I have recorded 0.61" of rain today and the temperature here is 55.

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JMA Weeklies showing the northern half of our Sub can't catch a break in the pattern through the next 4 weeks. The southern Plains may actually warm up and dry out a bit heading into July. Let's see if this is a trend or just a "head fake".

 

Week 2 temps and precip...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201906.D1212_gl2.png

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201906.D1212_gl0.png

Weeks 3-4...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201906.D1212_gl2.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201906.D1212_gl0.png

Head fake for the win.

 

Only way there is warmth here is if the "sticky" ridge over the GOA and west coast goes away. It looks like it keeps wanting to hang tough.

 

Looking also at getting into the last 55-65 days of a growing season North of Nebraska if there's not a major reversal or shock in 4 weeks.

 

There's little recorded precedent from any types of true "year without a summer" here, but with 2 85 degree days, one from as far back as March or April, one has to be asking how some will fare for any real summer at all.

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While it's baking in central Europe (I warned my family of a hot summer in Poland), where they have had back-to-back days of record heat across Poland/Ukraine/Lithuania...across the "pond" to the west in central U.S. we are quite the opposite and setting some record low's.  Many places across the entire central CONUS/Ag Belt are tying or setting record low temps this morning.

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Head fake for the win.

 

Only way there is warmth here is if the "sticky" ridge over the GOA and west coast goes away. It looks like it keeps wanting to hang tough.

 

Looking also at getting into the last 55-65 days of a growing season North of Nebraska if there's not a major reversal or shock in 4 weeks.

 

There's little recorded precedent from any types of true "year without a summer" here, but with 2 85 degree days, one from as far back as March or April, one has to be asking how some will fare for any real summer at all.

The NE PAC ridge looks fierce and I don't see it going away which leads me to believe an early Autumn is in the works.  IMHO, we are going to see a very short growing season.

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48/38 on June 13. I have the space heater on in my office.

 

The way things are shaping up for the rest of June, it’s looking like I won’t be using the AC at all until July. $70/mo electric bills continue.

My electric bill was 60% lower compared to last year's bill.  This month will likely be even more cheaper and big saving$$$.

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Audubon, in west-central IA, hit 39º this morning.  Eastern Iowa didn't get too cold.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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What a raw, wet day today. Current temps are in the upper 50s w windy conditions. Clearing takes place tanite, but so does the chilly air. Low temps are expected to be between 43-48F. Brrrr!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hitting 90* today. Sunny

 

The sun and drying is needed and it is June after all.

But I'll be at a large nursery tomorrow and I'm not used to this heat.

Hope I don't end up face down in the Camillias!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Good Friday!  It's a wonderful sunny morning, 52F/42F, cool and crisp, just the way I like it.  Although, I wouldn't mind it being a tad warmer and it looks like next week we'll see more warmth than this week.  Heading into the upper 70's with ample sunshine today...#FantasticFriday..great way to end the work week.

 

In other news, today marks the 26th straight day with "zero" Sun Spots and the 100th spotless day so far this year.  #SolarMinimum

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Another record cold setting day across the eastern CONUS...many places in the Southeast are getting a much needed break from the heat.  That must feel very refreshing for those folks.

 

Wow, Aurora, IL got down to 44F setting a new record low...beat the old record of 48F back in 2014...

 

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Crisp air outside w sunny skies and not a cloud to be found. Bottomed out at 40s last night. No record lows were set. Although, it did come close. Stilling running below normal for today as temps struggle into the 70s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yesterday most locations seen one of the coldest maximum temperatures for June 13th At Grand Rapids the high of 64° is the 4th coldest for the date (records go back to 1892) At Lansing the high of 62° was the 3rd coldest (records go back to 1863) And at Kalamazoo the high of 60 set a new record for the coldest maximum their records go back to 1887.  The high of 65 at Muskegon where the sun came out earlier in the day was 65 but still was the 9 coldest high for the date their with the records going back to 1896. All in all a very cold day for mid June.

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The Royals-Tigers game in Omaha last night was fun and had beautiful weather. Was actually a bit chilly with the wind when I was up in the nosebleeds. In the 3rd inning, I hopped down to a seat behind home plate in the sold out park. I got lucky!

0613191942a_HDR.jpg

0613192147.jpg

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Long range looking better for "warmth" in the Great Lakes.  No heat waves, but much better than low 60's!

 

Had 50s all day yesterday in Marshall. With the strong winds on top of that, had to grab my jacket once again. The high at KRMY was 61F technically due to not dropping to 59F until 12:37 am. After that, it was all downhill and the 3 pm Obs had a 55F reading! Dropped to 44F overnight as well, but apparently not even within 3F of the record (BC data for that) since we did not make the map Tom posted. Sunny and 70F currently and feels like a switch was flipped again from autumn back to summer. Hoping you're correct on the warmer temps returning to stay. It was a depressing reminder that eventually the warm season will come to an end too soon with the bum spring we got. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wow looking at the 12z models today it looks like Mother Nature wants to drown me over the next 10 days.  5 to 10in of rain on our already saturated soils will be real problematic.

 

GFS is taking everything south of Iowa over the next two weeks.   zzzzzzzzz

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Long range looking better for "warmth" in the Great Lakes.  No heat waves, but much better than low 60's!

Yes, its looking like it will get warmer, but no cigar. Temps could actually still run slightly below average. Yesterday felt like it was late September or early October.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Partly cloudy skies to mostly cloudy at times w temps in the low 70s. Still running BN. Wet weather returns for the weekend w cooler temps once again. Highs remaining in the 60s both Saturday n Sunday, along w damp conditions.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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You're gonna find this odd as you are all craving warmer weather, but I'm ready for Low 80's again.

These 90* days have been lousy.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I need to keep up with the forecasts more lol. Just turned off my lights to go to bed and I noticed flickering outside my window (blinds closed). Look at radar to see strong storms headed here. That's a surprise.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Rise and Shine!  It's one of the more nicer, warmer mornings I've experienced so far here this season.  Currently 64F/56F, SW 13 G 22 and the sun is breaking out with some high clouds.  The sky has an orange "ish" look to it this morning.  A touch of humidity is making it feel real nice and summery which I've been craving.  

 

As we approach the Summer Solstice and summer on my mind, I happened to look at the weather pattern way down near southern Mexico/Central America.  Check out this animation and you will see an upper level High drift up through Mexico and then eventually park itself into the desert SW.  While the placement of this upper level feature in the extended is still up in the air, it will enhance the Flow heading into Week 2 and create the summer version of the LRC's "Ring of Fire" pattern.  I believe this will be the seasonal shift of the pattern going forward where we would normally see the Summer ridge blossom.  It's fascinating to watch how nature evolves into Summer and to see the weather maps point towards this solution.

 

 

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We are now almost at the half way point for June 2019 and here for Grand Rapids the official mean temperature so far this month is 63.6 that is a departure of -2.5° the average H/L so far has been 74.1/53.1 the normal average H/L is 76.8/55.4 The warmest it has been this month is just 82 and the coldest it has been is 40. And Grand Rapids has officially reported 2.21" of rain fall so far.

The sun has now broken out and the temperature is now up to 72 here. Here at my house I have not had the AC on yet (have turned it on just to make sure it is working OK) Heck we have not had the windows open all that much let this year. I have had the furnace on for a short while just to take the chill off in the house. But hey everything sure is green this year so far.

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