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June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


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This is a potent wave. Until it reaches the WPAC, you have to lean cooler than guidance over NW-North America.

 

vpS7ogW.gif

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For M/J/J.

 

Generally, phase 4-5-6 (E-IO) MJOs assuming the W-1 structure teleconnect to cooler regimes in the PNW.

 

Phase 7-8-1 (WPAC/WHEM) MJOs assuming the W-1 structure teleconnect to warmer regimes. The others are transitional.

 

V2F73kq.jpg

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So you have to wonder if some of the modeled warmth during week 2 is overzealous if not flat out wrong.

 

Looking over past cases of EHEM MJOs recycling during monsoonal inception, since 1998 there are zero cases where the west was ridgy before forcing reached the WPAC, but every single case that wasn’t La Niña transitioned to warm/ridgy once the wave reached the WPAC ~ 3 weeks later.

 

If I were betting, I’d lean variable with a cool lean until it reaches the WPAC in late June, then go hot for a week or two.

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Annoying bias of ECMWF... it paints high clouds way too thick most of the time.   

  

Its projected temps are really the only way to judge the true opacity its assuming when looking more than a few hours ahead.  For the last several runs... I could tell by its projected temps for today that the high cloud band it was showing would actually be quite thin.

 

Here is what it showed for 2 p.m.

 

ecmwf-washington-total-cloud-9422800.png

 

 

And here is reality...

 

sat-6-1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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To sum it up:

 

Variability until mid/late June, then a heatwave pattern as forcing propagates over the WPAC, then a crash into a 2011-ish pattern for a few weeks.

 

Analogs are indicative of another heatwave in mid/late August, but I can’t see that far ahead dynamically yet.

 

A 2011-like pattern sounds lovely, but I can't help but think your desire to troll Tim is clouding your judgement. Seems like every time you've forecast a cool period the last several warm seasons the best case scenario is that we get a brief period where we cool down to average or a touch below before quickly returning to torching.

 

My guess is we torch yet again this summer in typical 2013 to present fashion. I hope I'm wrong but predicting otherwise feels like a "too clever by half" move.

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Had a handful of rumbles from a vicinity storm a couple hours ago. Still nothing overly exciting during this stretch.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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A 2011-like pattern sounds lovely, but I can't help but think your desire to troll Tim is clouding your judgement. Seems like every time you've forecast a cool period the last several warm seasons the best case scenario is that we get a brief period where we cool down to average or a touch below before quickly returning to torching.

 

My guess is we torch yet again this summer in typical 2013 to present fashion. I hope I'm wrong but predicting otherwise feels like a "too clever by half" move.

I’m not trolling this time. Not in the mood today.

 

A 2011-like pattern that lasts for 10-15 days is nothing extraordinary, when you think about it. The last several years have given us all a warped perception of reality.

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2011 was more of a cool spring than a cool summer anyway. The summer was essentially shifted a month over, and that September was the warmest of the past 10 years.

 

Overall it was cooler than normal over the warmest three months of the year but I wouldn’t put it on the same level as the green tomato volcanic summers of 1983 and 1993.

 

However, 2010 was a very cool summer for CA moreso than the PNW, and 2011 was similar. I could be wrong on 2011 for CA though.

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Well we are rolling right along today!

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Annoying bias of ECMWF... it paints high clouds way too thick most of the time.

 

Its projected temps are really the only way to judge the true opacity its assuming when looking more than a few hours ahead. For the last several runs... I could tell by its projected temps for today that the high cloud band it was showing would actually be quite thin.

 

Here is what it showed for 2 p.m.

 

ecmwf-washington-total-cloud-9422800.png

 

 

And here is reality...

 

 

sat-6-1.png

You really need to get a life and get off the net sometimes. You’re the only person here that is constantly and reliably on here. Now you’re talking about high clouds? Good grief.

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Beautiful day in the s valley. Currently 81F and getting hot in the house with the sun on the west side of it. Gets in the front porch door. Unfortunately we can only put 1 AC window unit in or else it blows our circuit. Still helps to sit next to it in the bedroom. Time to put it in on Monday.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Beautiful day in the s valley. Currently 81F and getting hot in the house with the sun on the west side of it. Gets in the front porch door. Unfortunately we can only put 1 AC window unit in or else it blows our circuit. Still helps to sit next to it in the bedroom. Time to put it in on Monday.

I’m with ya. I’m putting mine in tomorrow. I have a 20,000 btu unit and if I space fans out accordingly it’ll cool the house just right in a hot day here in Redmond.

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Those high clouds are ruining my day. Grrrr. I think I’ll make a few more posts about it so Phil and Jesse say something to me and I can stay on here for another 8 hours debating high clouds. I hope my wife approves.

If you don’t like it ignore it or go somewhere else dude. Who cares how he spends his time it’s his life not yours.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Beautiful day in the s valley. Currently 81F and getting hot in the house with the sun on the west side of it. Gets in the front porch door. Unfortunately we can only put 1 AC window unit in or else it blows our circuit. Still helps to sit next to it in the bedroom. Time to put it in on Monday.

At least now you can mow the grass safely/the kids can go to the park without catching rain cancer.

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Some hope for nice weather again next weekend.   GFS and FV3 show the trough lifting out a little quicker.

 

Also... the morning low clouds might be pretty limited the next 3 days per the WRF.   It felt like some drier air filtered in this evening.    The haze was totally gone as well.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well said!

it’s statements like these and the folks that get onto Tim all the time (outside of Jesse, front ranger and Phil) that provide no benefit or info to the forum. I really enjoy analyzing the weather every day and Tims ECMWF post on the clouds was interesting and I enjoy all of his analysis even it is a bit obsessive:)
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it’s statements like these and the folks that get onto Tim all the time (outside of Jesse, front ranger and Phil) that provide no benefit or info to the forum. I really enjoy analyzing the weather every day and Tims ECMWF post on the clouds was interesting and I enjoy all of his analysis even it is a bit obsessive:)

Yes! Who cares what tim or anyone does with their personal time! It’s more weird that a certain few people consistently come on here making comments about it, like you have nothing better to do than worry about what he’s doing with his life? It’s those certain few people who provide little to no subject matter to the forum by trying to troll. We should stick to the weather and not personal insults.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Nice late evening t'storm occurred here, this is the closest catch I got.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Am1N1EVF9VI

 

More video here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZCfsRj5TJs

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Low cloud coverage greater this morning in SW WA and NW OR but much less over King County.

 

Sunny here... and in Seattle already.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z EPS lifted the trough out late in the week about 1 day faster than the operational run... so I expect the 12Z ECMWF will move in that direction.

 

Here is the 10-15 day mean from the 00Z EPS:

 

eps-z500a-5d-noram-61-1.png

 

eps-t850a-5d-noram-61.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice thick marine layer this morning, with a low of 51. Hopefully we can use up some thermal energy burning it off today, maybe come up a few degrees short of 80 this afternoon. I realize that would be a pretty big feat for early June...

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Marine layer made it to my house this morning but not much further than that. Marine layer is going to be thicker the next few days. 54 currently but should be a nice day like the last 3 days!

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Marine layer made it to my house this morning but not much further than that. Marine layer is going to be thicker the next few days. 54 currently but should be a nice day like the last 3 days!

 

 

Marine layer will actually not be as persistent the next couple days with better mixing overhead.    Tomorrow and Tuesday look quite sunny.

 

Here is tomorrow... clears out even on the coast.   Same for Tuesday.   Wednesday is a different story.

 

intcld.36.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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it’s statements like these and the folks that get onto Tim all the time (outside of Jesse, front ranger and Phil) that provide no benefit or info to the forum. I really enjoy analyzing the weather every day and Tims ECMWF post on the clouds was interesting and I enjoy all of his analysis even it is a bit obsessive:)

Lol

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Marine layer will actually not be as persistent the next couple days with better mixing overhead. Tomorrow and Tuesday look quite sunny.

 

Here is tomorrow... clears out even on the coast. Same for Tuesday. Wednesday is a different story.

 

intcld.36.0000.gif

Hopefully you are right. Nws forecast discussion made mention of increased onshore flow tonight so it could mean a later breakout on Monday but I’m all for less marine layer coverage.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Share on other sites

Hopefully you are right. Nws forecast discussion made mention of increased onshore flow tonight so it could mean a later breakout on Monday but I’m all for less marine layer coverage.

They are not paying attention to the details. Just assuming onshore flow means more gloom... but it also means better mixing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes! Who cares what tim or anyone does with their personal time! It’s more weird that a certain few people consistently come on here making comments about it, like you have nothing better to do than worry about what he’s doing with his life? It’s those certain few people who provide little to no subject matter to the forum by trying to troll. We should stick to the weather and not personal insults.

Then what is the point of this post? #hypocrisy

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