June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the high temp is going to be 76 for today. Warmest day since June 13th here.

[MossMan]

Long wait for trailer spots to open up... have to sit here. Wish we had a lake house!

 

It helps a lot!! Even better when you or your neighbors (like at our place) has a launch!

I got the jetski fueled up and a new battery purchased...taking it to the lake on Wednesday for the summer...finally!

[GHweatherChris]

Oh Phil, you silly boy.

[Jesse]

There's like three restaurants there and I think one of them is a Subway. Walk down the street and see what looks best.

There’s like 5-6. We always liked Big River Grill or Joe’s El Rio.

[Front Ranger]

Sand bar sort of back now... at least functional.

 

Lake Sammamish almost down to normal summer level.

 

Early...

[High Desert Mat?]

There’s like 5-6. We always liked Big River Grill or Joe’s El Rio.

We ate at the Grill place. I thought it was pretty good.

[Blizzard777]

Rumbles of thunder in the distance and saw a few flashes of lightning this evening in La Pine.

Life on the Deschutes is good

[jcmcgaffey]

Rumbles of thunder in the distance and saw a few flashes of lightning this evening in La Pine.

Life on the Deschutes is good

Been staying in Sun River the past 3 days and have been enjoying some amazing thunderstorms every evening. It’s been awesome! Looks like more thunderstorms earlier in the day tomorrow.

[jcmcgaffey]

Some crazy lightning and downpour that came out of nowhere about 30min ago. Tons of people were walking and biking and got drenched.

[Blizzard777]

Been staying in Sun River the past 3 days and have been enjoying some amazing thunderstorms every evening. It’s been awesome! Looks like more thunderstorms earlier in the day tomorrow.

Looking forward to tomorrow!!!!!

Cheers to us!

[Blizzard777]

Some crazy lightning and downpour that came out of nowhere about 30min ago. Tons of people were walking and biking and got drenched.

I Lost hope of any action by 7pm but like you said they just popped up outta nowhere. We just got sprinkles here

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

[jcmcgaffey]

Low to mid 70s every day here in Mexico City, with brief rain showers on a couple evenings.

 

Other than that, a hellish shithole.

 

IMG_20190628_164202869_HDR.jpg

I saw this article today: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48821306

[James Jones]

The wild swings on the gfs are making me doubt the upgrade.

 

Not just the GFS, the Euro has been terrible past day 5 as well. It keeps showing heat in the 7-10 day range only to push it back on the next run (not that I'm complaining). No idea if the upgrades have anything to do with it though, could just be a difficult pattern for the models to handle.

 

I'm speaking for our area of course, the models might be doing a good job over other parts of the planet.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We needed another warmer and drier than normal month like JFK needed a hole in the head.

Most of Oregon isn't in a drought and we're in much better shape than last year at this time.

 

[Jesse]

Most of Oregon isn't in a drought and we're in much better shape than last year at this time.

 

Score!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00Z GFS just took a crap on the 4th. Only 4 days away and still changing so much.

The 00z GEM still looks good. Have to wait for the UKMET and EURO now.

[TT-SEA]

The 00z GEM still looks good. Have to wait for the UKMET and EURO now.

 

 

Not feeling it now... GFS can't be that lost at 4 days out. 

 

I am guessing the EURO will probably change as well with the new data.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I saw this article today: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48821306

Wow, that's pretty crazy. Looks like it was a freak storm. Extreme weather at its finest!

[TacomaWaWx]

Most of Oregon isn't in a drought and we're in much better shape than last year at this time.

 

you guys are doing better than us here in western WA!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not feeling it now... GFS can't be that lost at 4 days out.

 

I am guessing the EURO will probably change as well with the new data.

Here's a comparison of the 00z GFS and UKMET for the 4th. Looks like the GFS is too aggressive with bringing the trough down from Canada.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

[Deweydog]

Jesse with a quick 9-0 run after hitting back to back threes and getting hacked in the act driving the paint. 92-81 with 5:31 left in the fourth. Time out Tim!

[Jesse]

Not just the GFS, the Euro has been terrible past day 5 as well. It keeps showing heat in the 7-10 day range only to push it back on the next run (not that I'm complaining). No idea if the upgrades have anything to do with it though, could just be a difficult pattern for the models to handle.

 

I'm speaking for our area of course, the models might be doing a good job over other parts of the planet.

I’ve been noticing the same thing with the Euro. There always seems to be heat at the end of the run lately, that inevitably gets pushed back. I remember when this coming week and the 4th were looking pretty toasty.

[TT-SEA]

Jesse with a quick 9-0 run after hitting back to back threes and getting hacked in the act driving the paint. 92-81 with 5:31 left in the fourth. Time out Tim!

Not looking good!

 

Of course all I was hoping for was pleasant and sunny... not an inferno.

[TT-SEA]

I think the models have been doing OK with the general pattern... we are just in no man's land where small differences at the 500mb level make a huge difference in tangible weather.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

you guys are doing better than us here in western WA!

Yeah, looks like your area is in a severe drought. Hoping you get some rain over the next few days.

[Phil]

I’ve been noticing the same thing with the Euro. There always seems to be heat at the end of the run lately, that inevitably gets pushed back. I remember when this coming week and the 4th were looking pretty toasty.

The EPS has a demonstrable bias towards WPAC convection in the long range (or at least the previous version did), which could explain some of the wavetrain behavior.

 

As for the new GFS, I have no clue. Some of the model physics and the initialization/gridding schemes are very different. It doesn’t seem to have the same biases the old version had, though.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, looks like your area is in a severe drought. Hoping you get some rain over the next few days.

Chris is under severe drought too. I wonder if any of the trees are still alive there. He has been baking in the 60s with frequent showers and drizzle. I bet his area is a barren wasteland now.

[Phil]

00Z GFS just took a crap on the 4th. Only 4 days away and still changing so much.

 

The 00z GFS looks better than the 18z (colder with more moisture).

[TT-SEA]

 

The 00z GFS looks better than the 18z (IE: colder).

That is strange... seems like 72-75 and sunny would be better than clouds and gloomy weather all day which even you said would be depressing.

 

Its not like it was showing 100-degree swamp conditions. Because I assure you that if I lived in DC... I would be a huge summer trough fan just like you!

[jcmcgaffey]

I’ve been noticing the same thing with the Euro. There always seems to be heat at the end of the run lately, that inevitably gets pushed back. I remember when this coming week and the 4th were looking pretty toasty.

so it doesn’t only happen with cold and snow in the winter?!

[ShawniganLake]

[Blizzard777]

Thunder cell to the north of me is still flashing every 30 seconds! Absolutely love this

[Omegaraptor]

 

Looks like the GFS is verifiably having a seizure.

[Jesse]

Decent ensemble support for the 00z GFS.

[Timmy Supercell]

June this year was not quite record territory but nonetheless was above average by some degree.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF still shows 77 in Seattle on the 4th and then 76 on Friday.   It has been between 75-77 in Seattle that day for numerous consecutive runs now.

 

It showed 75 for today in Seattle on the 12Z run this morning and it got into the low 80s in many places.

[TT-SEA]

Saturday looks much cooler than previous runs on the 00Z ECMWF... no doubt Sunday will as well.