June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Just realized that last month was PDX's third warmest May on record (behind 1992 and last year). We seem to pop those top 5 warm months like Pez candy these days.

 

At least it wasn't as ridiculously dry as last year, about ten times more rain at PDX last month than May 2018. But still below average. I can already tell things are running a little greener than last year at this time, with (hopefully) another nice soaking on the way later this week. But the Euro isn't on board.

Was a top 5 warm May here as well. 0.52” for the month here, better than last years total of 0.19”. Pretty dry here in Tacoma most of the unwatered lawns are looking like barn hay.

[Front Ranger]

Just realized that last month was PDX's third warmest May on record (behind 1992 and last year). We seem to pop those top 5 warm months like Pez candy these days.

 

At least it wasn't as ridiculously dry as last year, about ten times more rain at PDX last month than May 2018. But still below average. I can already tell things are running a little greener than last year at this time, with (hopefully) another nice soaking on the way later this week. But the Euro isn't on board.

 

Ended up being the second warmest May on record for SEA, narrowly beating out 1958.

 

#4 warmest for OLM, as it just barely beat out a bunch of other years that were within a few tenths of a degree. Almost two full degrees cooler than 1958, the warmest May on record there and probably for the majority of the region.

[seattleweatherguy]

12z is a nice June run.

For what part of the month any hot stretches?

[TT-SEA]

Total precip per the 12Z ECMWF through Sunday...

 

[TT-SEA]

For what part of the month any hot stretches?

 

 

Pretty sure next week is going to be sunny and warm... and I think that is during your trip if I remember correctly.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty much everywhere in Western Washington is great except for Seattle. Other than that once you head south of Tacoma, north of Everett or east of Lake Washington it’s nice. There’s a select few nice places in the Seattle suburbs however. I do like living in north Tacoma.

 

I like the Ballard area and parts of north Seattle.

[ShawniganLake]

Just realized that last month was PDX's third warmest May on record (behind 1992 and last year). We seem to pop those top 5 warm months like Pez candy these days.

 

At least it wasn't as ridiculously dry as last year, about ten times more rain at PDX last month than May 2018. But still below average. I can already tell things are running a little greener than last year at this time, with (hopefully) another nice soaking on the way later this week. But the Euro isn't on board.

3rd warmest May in the past 5 years here. Also the 3rd warmest in the past 30 years. I didn’t have time to look back further but it did beat 1958, entirely thanks to warmer nights.

[Jesse]

Ended up being the second warmest May on record for SEA, narrowly beating out 1958.

 

#4 warmest for OLM, as it just barely beat out a bunch of other years that were within a few tenths of a degree. Almost two full degrees cooler than 1958, the warmest May on record there and probably for the majority of the region.

Sure, there have been Mays about as warm scattered throughout the distant past. But Flatsterisks aside, the run of top tier warm Mays 4 of the past 5 years is pretty much unprecedented, regionally. At least as far back as historical records go.

 

The same could be said for many, if not most months/seasons in the 2013-present period.

[Phil]

The timing of the subseasonal progression is coming into clearer focus now. Going to be on the slower side.

 

Contrary to the current model projections, a good chunk of June will be cool/zonal. Heatwave (#1) potential runs from the end of June into the second week of July. Then a crash from mid/late July into early/mid August, followed by the grand finale of WPAC bombs bringing heatwave #2 to close out summer. So it likely goes out on a hot note.

[Front Ranger]

Sure, there have been Mays about as warm scattered throughout the distant past. But Flatsterisks aside, the run of top tier warm Mays 4 of the past 5 years is pretty much unprecedented, regionally. At least as far back as historical records go.

 

The same could be said for many, if not most months/seasons in the 2013-present period.

Sure, I've made the same point recently. It's been an unprecedented stretch for May the last handful of years, both in terms of dryness and warmth.

 

Nothing I said contradicted or downplayed that

[seattleweatherguy]

Pretty sure next week is going to be sunny and warm... and I think that is during your trip if I remember correctly.

Yes indeed. That for sure would be nice. Though there is a possibility we were thinking of changing it to the week of the 23rd if it ends up being sunnier and warmer but it's a huge risk?

[seattleweatherguy]

The timing of the subseasonal progression is coming into clearer focus now. Going to be on the slower side.

 

Contrary to the current model projections, a good chunk of June will be cool/zonal. Heatwave (#1) potential runs from the end of June into the second week of July. Then a crash from mid/late July into early/mid August, followed by the grand finale of WPAC bombs bringing heatwave #2 to close out summer. So it likely goes out on a hot note.

End of June like the last week?

[Jesse]

will this summer be nice I’m going camping the week of august 5 will it be nice or should i cancel

[TacomaWaWx]

will this summer be nice I’m going camping the week of august 5 will it be nice or should i cancel

go August 13-17 should be 81-83 everyday.

[Jesse]

[jcmcgaffey]

I like the Ballard area and parts of north Seattle.

I was going to tell Tacoma to watch it as I live in the city of Seattle:). But on a more serious note my wife and I both grew up out east of Seattle on acreage and we now live in the city with our three kids in a house I bought 15years ago and we love it. We can spend a lot more time together because of it and the neighbors and all the kids hang out and play together. It has its negatives too but having everything within miles of us or walkable has been amazing. We do miss the country life a bit but we just get an air B&B or go camping when we get the itch to get out and that helps. We can also walk to carkeek which has miles of trails with no houses or noise around and even old growth trees etc.

[Phil]

[TacomaWaWx]

I was going to tell Tacoma to watch it as I live in the city of Seattle:). But on a more serious note my wife and I both grew up out east of Seattle on acreage and we now live in the city with our three kids in a house I bought 15years ago and we love it. We can spend a lot more time together because of it and the neighbors and all the kids hang out and play together. It has its negatives too but having everything within miles of us or walkable has been amazing. We do miss the country life a bit but we just get an air B&B or go camping when we get the itch to get out and that helps. We can also walk to carkeek which has miles of trails with no houses or noise around and even old growth trees etc.

There are a few select neighborhoods in the Seattle suburbs that aren’t bad. Like front ranger said north Seattle and Ballard aren’t too bad. I just find a lot of the neighborhoods from Everett to Tacoma along that stretch to be not great. Seattle has really gone to crap in my lifetime. Places east of Lake Washington and on the kitsap peninsula are decent.

[jcmcgaffey]

will this summer be nice I’m going camping the week of august 5 will it be nice or should i cancel

haha. I would cancel as it is most likely going to be hot and Smokey actually going to the Oregon coast that same week so might be good timing for me.

[Omegaraptor]

The timing of the subseasonal progression is coming into clearer focus now. Going to be on the slower side.

Contrary to the current model projections, a good chunk of June will be cool/zonal. Heatwave (#1) potential runs from the end of June into the second week of July. Then a crash from mid/late July into early/mid August, followed by the grand finale of WPAC bombs bringing heatwave #2 to close out summer. So it likely goes out on a hot note.

So what about the warm event at 7-10 days on the GFS? Will that be replaced by a trough at some point?

[TacomaWaWx]

Sun has came out here in the last hour breaking through the cloud deck up to 61 degrees with a light SW breeze.

[Phil]

So what about the warm event at 7-10 days on the GFS?

That’s probably real. I’m more referring to the extended range EPS and some of the other long range modeling, which I don’t believe is picking up the correct wave structure over the Pacific (IE: from D10 onwards).

[Jesse]

There are a few select neighborhoods in the Seattle suburbs that aren’t bad. Like front ranger said north Seattle and Ballard aren’t too bad. I just find a lot of the neighborhoods from Everett to Tacoma along that stretch to be not great. Seattle has really gone to crap in my lifetime. Places east of Lake Washington and on the kitsap peninsula are decent.

I thought you were ten.

[Jesse]

[TacomaWaWx]

I thought you were ten.

I’ll be 10 this upcoming spring!

[Jesse]

I’ll be 10 this upcoming spring!

I’m not buying it.

[jcmcgaffey]

There are a few select neighborhoods in the Seattle suburbs that aren’t bad. Like front ranger said north Seattle and Ballard aren’t too bad. I just find a lot of the neighborhoods from Everett to Tacoma along that stretch to be not great. Seattle has really gone to crap in my lifetime. Places east of Lake Washington and on the kitsap peninsula are decent.

I agree with you there. If my wife and I hadn’t fallen in a good neighborhood we would have gone east. The work commute was a big one too. I save hours because of that and can spend more time with family. Ballard/Greenwood was actually much sketchier when I bought 15years ago and we questioned selling when we were about to have our first kid but now it has gotten a lot better and more family friendly. About the worst spot winter weather wise though:)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Washington’s coastal cities are kind of lame in my opinion. Run down and depressing. Oregon’s coastal cities are much better in my opinion.

Once you get south of Florence it is kinda meh. I don’t hear a ton about Bandon, Port Orford, Gold Beach, or Brookings besides Cape Blanco IMO.

[Jesse]

Once you get south of Florence it is kinda meh. I don’t hear a ton about Bandon, Port Orford, Gold Beach, or Brookings besides Cape Blanco IMO.

The southern Oregon coast is gorgeous. Boardman state park is probably one of the most scenic spots on the whole coast.

 

Basically every city you mentioned is objectively more scenic than Florence.

[Phil]

Holy crap, check out this match. May 1995, May 2019. Block was stronger this year, but still solid structural homogeneity.

 

H/t to Ant Masiello. I missed this one.

 

[Phil]

Actually the second strongest polar block on record for the month of May, just barely beating 1954.

 

The record holder is 2010.

[Front Ranger]

Sure, there have been Mays about as warm scattered throughout the distant past. But Flatsterisks aside, the run of top tier warm Mays 4 of the past 5 years is pretty much unprecedented, regionally. At least as far back as historical records go.

 

The same could be said for many, if not most months/seasons in the 2013-present period.

 

 

Sure, I've made the same point recently. It's been an unprecedented stretch for May the last handful of years, both in terms of dryness and warmth.

 

Nothing I said contradicted or downplayed that

 

At OLM, the other months besides May that have been consistently warm to very warm since 2013 are: Jan (with the notable exception of 2017), Jun, Jul, and Aug. A couple months that ran very warm from 2014-16 but have since cooled down are March and October. The rest of the months have been pretty variable, and February stands out recently as 2017-19 was the coldest three year stretch for that month since the mid 1950s.

 

Without a doubt, it's the warm season months of May-August that have truly seen unprecedented warmth/dryness the past 5 or so years.

[Phil]

Also, for the cool weather lovers, there are (apparently) only 6 cases since 1980 where the polar (60-90N) 500mb height anomaly spiked 20m or higher from the previous year, and none of them were excessively torchy summers in the PNW.

 

They are 1988, 1993, 1995, 2008, 2010, and 2016.

 

Before 1988, you have to go back to 1967.

[TT-SEA]

So what about the warm event at 7-10 days on the GFS? Will that be replaced by a trough at some point?

 

Never.   Troughing never follows ridging.  

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m not buying it.

yup I was lying I’m turning 8 actually you got me!

[TT-SEA]

Yes indeed. That for sure would be nice. Though there is a possibility we were thinking of changing it to the week of the 23rd if it ends up being sunnier and warmer but it's a huge risk?

Are you asking if the week of 6/23 will be more sunny and warm than next week?

 

Next week should be fine. There is no way to know really know about the week of 6/23 yet. Bird in the hand...

[Jesse]

yup I was lying I’m turning 8 actually you got me!

Yeah you are definitely lying about something!

[TacomaWaWx]

Once you get south of Florence it is kinda meh. I don’t hear a ton about Bandon, Port Orford, Gold Beach, or Brookings besides Cape Blanco IMO.

I haven’t actually seen the southern Oregon coast. I have been to everywhere north of Florence along the coast though.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah you are definitely lying about something!

haha. I turned 20 in March.

[Jesse]

haha. I turned 20 in March.

Seems like a better fit.