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March 30th - 1st Potential Severe Weather Outbreak and Snow Potential


Clinton

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March looks to go out like a Lion as a strong storm looks to bring the first widespread chance of Severe Weather across the middle of the country.  The SPC shows this for days 5 and 6.

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Severe potential will increase markedly on Days 5-6/Thu-Fri from the
   southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley
   vicinity. The western upper trough is expected to slowly progress
   eastward during this time. There remain differences in forecast
   guidance regarding the timing of the upper trough ejecting east from
   the western U.S. into the Plains and then eastward. While the GFS
   suite of guidance remains faster than the ECMWF and Canadian
   guidance, overall trends have become better aligned. Given timing
   uncertainty, the severe delineations may still shift/expand in the
   coming days. If a slower trough ejection occurs, the severe threat
   on Thursday could become more isolated due to capping. Nevertheless,
   a large warm sector will overspread the southern/central Plains into
   the Mid-South vicinity Thursday and Friday. This will occur as a
   deepening surface low over the southern/central High Plains ejects
   east/northeast and intense low/midlevel southwesterly flow
   overspreads the region. This should support severe thunderstorms
   capable of all severe hazards shifting east/northeast with time from
   the Plains toward the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Thu/Fri.

EAX is already mentioning the possibility of severe weather.

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The cold side- as always it will be hard to pin down where and if any heavy snow falls but as of now the Euro shows this.

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8 hours ago, Clinton said:

Enhanced Risk now added for Friday, meanwhile the cold side looks to produce some nice snowfall amounts again for Minn and Wisc.

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We are actually headed down to KC area, Shawnee KS, to see my brother and his family.  Might be dodging some storms that direction, and leaving some snow up here.

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Nice lifting trough ejecting out of the southwest here on the morning of the 31st. 

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Deep moisture ahead of the dry line too.

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Good low level jet.

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Upper level diffluence looks solid.

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Plenty of CAPE will be present.

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Should see some storms pop up, which has been well advertised by the SPC, etc. 

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We will see what happens, but my guess is that this gets going either right over me or just east...with a significant event for AR/MO. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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11 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Nice lifting trough ejecting out of the southwest here on the morning of the 31st. 

image.png

Deep moisture ahead of the dry line too.

image.png

Good low level jet.

image.png

Upper level diffluence looks solid.

image.png

Plenty of CAPE will be present.

image.png

Should see some storms pop up, which has been well advertised by the SPC, etc. 

image.png

 

We will see what happens, but my guess is that this gets going either right over me or just east...with a significant event for AR/MO. 

Dynamically, this absolutely looks like a severe outbreak producer.. but that morning moisture shown in the gfs over northenr ar/southern mo worries me a bit. Euro deterministic would actually lead to better potential for a tornado outbreak due to it not becoming a cut off low and the surface low not occluding. Places better orthogonal deep layer shear over the area too.  

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22 hours ago, AquariusRadar said:

Aquariusradar can quell (temper) the giant thunderstorms that create tornadoes. The terrible F4 funnel cloud that struck Rolling Fork Mississippi 26 March could have been lessened to a F2 or F1 or possibly eliminated altogether. In tornado country of the eastern half of the nation, the NWS radar stations could add a standby transmitter and antenna to perform the aquariusradar function; radiating on the menacing CN thunderstorms as they approach the rotation necessary to produce a tornado. The microwave radiation slows the development of the monster storm and nearby smaller CN clouds take up the moisture made available.

The Rolling Fork fire station could also do the job. At the direction of the local NWS and Emergency Management, the fire crew points the radar, located on the roof of the fire house, at the oncoming storm and radiates to lessen the storms intensity.

Aquariusradar works by slowing the growth of thunderstorms.

The next potential tornado producing storm is rolling out of California headed for the high risk impact zones of the midwest and south. I have worked unsuccessfully for 15 years to draw attention to the idea that directed microwave energy- the kind radars produce-can slow the development of CN thunderstorms and temper or lessen the power of existing thunderstorms. My arguments largely go unheeded because many readers associate "microwave energy" and "radar" with conspiracy theory about how government is trying to control the weather; ie. "HAARP"?, "chemtrails" and similar nonsensical ideas.

I sincerely think this could work to alleviate some of the worst weather known- the tornado -based on my experience of operating high power radars for many years and a study I did of the rainfall pattern around a large DoD radar in NW Florida. I hope not to be annoying with the subject. I sincerely hope to encourage others to investigate the idea(s) to lessen the destruction of hail and tornados.  

Of course, the NWS storm  group in Norman have no interest and the largest weather modification company has no interest. But some day perhaps some investigator will see the idea and decide to go further and test to see if it can work. There is lots of grant money spent on goofier ideas.

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Interesting Severe Wx Threat setting up for the MW and MBY back home....I'll be tracking this system from across the country...looks more like a wind and possible squall line threat...I'm worried about down state IL and MO peeps.  @Clinton 

 

Tab2FileL.png?23edaf8f2589b89c85c522a649

 

SPC Outlook...

day3otlk_0730.gif

 

 

On the winter side of things, the Upper MW/Northwoods continue to get greeted by Ol' Man Winter...ain't no Fooling around when the calendar says April 1st and you have snow falling!

image.png

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I remember a similar storm like this one last year or the year before that hit IA with some powerful supercell storms that developed close to the triple point.  @Jaycee @Hawkeye  @bud2380 @Iowawx Friday night boomers appear likely to interrupt dinner plans??

I usually don't pay much attn to the NAM at this range but I find it does handle severe wx better than the global models at this range. This storm is trending towards a strong classic late MAR storm.   

March came in "Like a Lion" and coming out like a Lion...it's been a Memorable March for many of you guys back east and it looks like Nature wants to finish off the month with a Bang!

 

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20 hours ago, AquariusRadar said:

The next potential tornado producing storm is rolling out of California headed for the high risk impact zones of the midwest and south. I have worked unsuccessfully for 15 years to draw attention to the idea that directed microwave energy- the kind radars produce-can slow the development of CN thunderstorms and temper or lessen the power of existing thunderstorms. My arguments largely go unheeded because many readers associate "microwave energy" and "radar" with conspiracy theory about how government is trying to control the weather; ie. "HAARP"?, "chemtrails" and similar nonsensical ideas.

I sincerely think this could work to alleviate some of the worst weather known- the tornado -based on my experience of operating high power radars for many years and a study I did of the rainfall pattern around a large DoD radar in NW Florida. I hope not to be annoying with the subject. I sincerely hope to encourage others to investigate the idea(s) to lessen the destruction of hail and tornados.  

Of course, the NWS storm  group in Norman have no interest and the largest weather modification company has no interest. But some day perhaps some investigator will see the idea and decide to go further and test to see if it can work. There is lots of grant money spent on goofier ideas.

I'm happy that people aren't interested in interfering with nature or weather! It's not that I'm associating it with government control or conspiracy theories, but I think it's best to leave weather alone, as I mostly like it as is..... somewhat on the wild side! 

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

Interesting Severe Wx Threat setting up for the MW and MBY back home....I'll be tracking this system from across the country...looks more like a wind and possible squall line threat...I'm worried about down state IL and MO peeps.  @Clinton 

 

Tab2FileL.png?23edaf8f2589b89c85c522a649

 

SPC Outlook...

day3otlk_0730.gif

 

 

On the winter side of things, the Upper MW/Northwoods continue to get greeted by Ol' Man Winter...ain't no Fooling around when the calendar says April 1st and you have snow falling!

image.png

EAX agrees with you on the squall line threat.  MBY will have a threat for some super cells, hopefully I can get home from work in time to take some pictures.

 

By 7 AM Friday morning, the surface low is progged to be centered
near Sioux City, IA with a cold front extending to the south
southwest through SE Nebraska and into central Kansas, with an
expansive warm sector in place across our forecast area.
Meanwhile aloft, the 500 mb continues to deepen over north central
Nebraska with a 100+ knot 500 mb cyclonic jet streak nosing into
the area. Positive vorticity advection and rapid height falls
will occur as the trough makes its final approach, with the cold
front moving through from west to east Friday afternoon.
Convection allowing models suggest storm initiation by early
afternoon out ahead of the cold front near the MO/KS border.
Storms may briefly be discrete at first, but fairly rapid upscale
growth should occur yielding a line (or broken line) of storms
that quickly move west to east through the forecast area. 60
degree dewpoints and temperatures in the low to mid 70s should
allow for a sector of ML CAPE between 1000 and 2000 J/KG to
develop, and the 100+ knot mid level jet streak will create plenty
of deep layer wind shear allowing for well organized updrafts.
Low level wind shear also would allow for the potential for
tornadoes. Thus, all severe hazards will be in play, but given the
anticipated rapid upscale growth into a squall line, wind will
likely be the primary hazard. As of now, SPC has an enhanced risk
(3 out of 5) for areas along and east of a Lamoni to Clinton line,
with a slight risk (2 out of 5) as far west as NW MO and the
MO/KS border. In addition to the severe threat, some sort of wind
headline may also be needed due to the strong southerly winds
ahead of the front as well as the strong westerly winds behind the
front, with non-thunderstorm gusts as high as 50 mph. Relative
humidity will also rapidly drop behind the frontal passage, with
RH values as low as 30 percent for far eastern KS/far western MO
south of Interstate 70 by mid to late afternoon. This will yield
near critical fire weather conditions, and as such a fire weather
watch has been issued for this area for Friday afternoon and early
evening.
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6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

For the winter potion of this storm - Winter Storm Watch issued for counties to my W, N, and NE. NWS FSD is thinking 4-8 inches and possible blizzard conditions for those spots. For Sioux Falls, they are thinking mostly rain with possibly a dusting to 2 inches falling on the backside of the departing low. 

Your area thinking severe storms on top of snowpack? What’s your snow depth? I’m hoping storms fire further south and I get something before dry slot. 

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Could be the most widespread effects of severe wx seen since Dec 2021 coming up tomorrow. 

I'm only in the Marginal risk area, but there can still be a decent storm here with that. 

day2otlk_0600.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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20 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Our snowpack has been very depleted over the past couple weeks. We actually have mostly bare ground now with the only spots still with snow still OTG being drift spots or the piles where snow was stacked up high. Kind of nice to have a yard again.

As for storms - didn't think much of a potential until NWS FSD kept pounding the drum and noticed SPC outlooks covering the potential as well. Most models show at least something up here. Not expecting a big late-spring-like outbreak but would love just a small batch with hail and lightning to move through.

My brother-in-law moved here in October of last year from the PNW and is itching to experience our thunderstorms. It would be cool to score something tonight after giving him the heads up yesterday. 

I've been in a few storms that produce constant lightning, sure is different around here. The kinds of storms that happen once every few years in Klamath Falls, are on an annual basis here. 

We even get t'storms in the cooler times of year. A January thunderstorm in southern Oregon was extremely rare. We get em all through the year. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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16 hours ago, AquariusRadar said:

To quote Sparky "its best to leave weather alone". The weather modification silver iodine generators have been spewing for 60 years in the intermountain west. I think they are stealing rainfall water from someone downwind. Could be Sparky. 

That would suck if true, but I doubt it's affecting the upper Midwest as average rainfall has been increasing in the last few decades. 

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1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I've been in a few storms that produce constant lightning, sure is different around here. The kinds of storms that happen once every few years in Klamath Falls, are on an annual basis here. 

We even get t'storms in the cooler times of year. A January thunderstorm in southern Oregon was extremely rare. We get em all through the year. 

That's the downside of winter here with not many t. storms, though they occur once in awhile. I'm a t. storm fan and that's one reason I wouldn't want to live in the western states. I'm getting excited about tomorrow, but I'm not wishing for severe storms, just strong storms! 😀

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Next week looks gnarly on the 12z Euro as well. Lots of severe weather coming up with this pattern, as modeled.

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71d3gFE8_normal.jpg
 
The bright colors of the significant tornado parameter (STP) on Friday afternoon northern IL, eastern IA, southern WI show how insanely conducive for fast-moving tornadoes this northern mode will be just ahead of the surface low track. Meanwhile, the UP of Michigan is going to get hammered by big snow on the cold side of this system

Image

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The risk areas keep expanding. Now ALL of Illinois is in at least an Enhanced Risk. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Next week looks gnarly on the 12z Euro as well. Lots of severe weather coming up with this pattern, as modeled.

Wunderground is being dumb and not putting t'storms on my forecast for tomorrow. But is showing tomorrow as the wettest day out of the next 10.. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Wunderground is being dumb and not putting t'storms on my forecast for tomorrow. But is showing tomorrow as the wettest day out of the next 10.. 

Looks like a nocturnal threat in your area overnight tomorrow, maybe from like 2-5AM? Daytime stuff beforehand more likely to be stratiform/crapvection type stuff.

Also that’s a pretty deep mixing layer late Saturday morning. Could be some 60mph straightline winds if the NAM is anywhere close to accurate.

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This evening's HRRR and 3kNAM are showing some pre-show convection lifting north from Missouri that may murk up the main show action in east-central Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Another big storm system in the great plains... and another dry slot for Eastern Nebraska.

Hurray for strong winds and high fire danger... this amazing pattern keeps delivering 🙄. Doesn't even look like we will squeeze out a decent thunderstorm here tonight or tomorrow, which is even more disappointing. 

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A warm 71* at 10 pm.  
Humidity 62%.  

Ugh! 🤮
 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Just a bit of rain with some thunder to the nw. In the past hour. !

BTW, the tulips 🌷 survived the lows of 9⁰ and 10⁰ in the middle of Mar. 😀

Finally had a warmish day with a high of 66⁰ today. Should hit 70⁰ tomorrow. Local farmers are planting oats and alfalfa or hay. 

Edited by Sparky
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I heard some low rumbles of thunder tonight, but all the little cells went around me.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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