July 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Tom, when can we expect a relief from the heat/dry weather in Iowa? I don't mind the heat so much, but things are really starting to get dry around here. 

The relief starts this weekend from a trailing CF as a system traverses the Upper MW.  I think our area stands a good chance to see some storms later in the weekend.  Next week is looking MUCH more comfortable and cooler.  The flip out of this heat/dry pattern is coming by early next week.

[Andie]

The heavy cloud cover from Barry was a nice change. Very little rain, but the air was nice.

Back to the heat today.

[OKwx2k4]

That pattern in about 150hrs=heaven on earth for me. Aside from about 2-3 days coming up. Bye bye summer.

[OKwx2k4]

Can't ask for better. Overcast and cool.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Lots of sensors not reporting. Gotta skew that warmth up and erase the cold. When it's that obvious, I mean, c'mon man.

[Hawkeye]

Halfway through July, I've received 0.18" of rain.

[Tom]

While grilling on the deck, it’s up to 89F with a strong SW breeze and a relatively low DP (63F). It isn’t all that bad and could be worse. I’m sure late week it’ll be a scorcher as a lot of us Fry.

[james1976]

While grilling on the deck, it’s up to 89F with a strong SW breeze and a relatively low DP (63F). It isn’t all that bad and could be worse. I’m sure late week it’ll be a scorcher as a lot of us Fry.

Yeah was just thinking that today doesnt feel as bad as I thought it was gonna. Sounds like upper 90s and 105 HI by end of week.

[Niko]

A tad warmer today as HI is slightly high, but not too bad. Later this week, it will get toasty.

 

Currently mostly sunny and hot w temps near 90F. Hopefully a storm can pop up.

[Niko]

The heavy cloud cover from Barry was a nice change. Very little rain, but the air was nice.

Back to the heat today.

Barry will definitely make the air here in SEMI very humid, that's for sure. I am hoping for a few good downpours from him.

[OKwx2k4]

All the sensors are back online now.

[Tom]

Personally speaking, it was hard for me to bet against what the Euro/EPS was showing for Week 2 when I made the call for a cooler trend for the following week.  I'm glad I stuck with it bc now the EPS is showcasing what the GEFS have been doing all along.  Not to often the GFS/GEFS score a coupe.

 

Now the CPC boys are seeing the cooler Week 2 forecast....ahhhh, that's gonna feel nice and we'll be able to finally open up the windows and let in some nice fresh Canadian air.

 

 

[Tom]

Meantime, DVN just hoisted an Excessive Heat Watch and I'm sure many locals will follow suit...

 

 

 

Excessive Heat WatchURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

...An Extended Period of Heat and Humidity...

.A hot and humid airmass will build across the Midwest by midweek.
Temperatures in the 90s will combine with humidity to push heat
induces into the 100 to 110 range, especially from Thursday
through Saturday. It is possible this heat will continue into the
late weekend, but confidence of this remains low at this time.

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-160415-
/O.NEW.KDVN.EH.A.0001.190717T1800Z-190721T0000Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque,
Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Marengo, Iowa City,
Tipton, Clinton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney,
Washington, Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington,
Keosauqua, Fort Madison, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll,
Sterling, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin,
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Quad Cities has issued an
Excessive Heat Watch, which is in effect from Wednesday afternoon
through Saturday evening.

* Heat Index Values...Ranging from 100 to 110 due to temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s...and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.

* Timing...Wednesday Afternoon through Saturday Evening.

* Impacts...Heat-related illnesses may occur due to the prolonged
period of heat and humidity.

[Tom]

@ Gabel, how was your trip this past weekend in Chicago? Nice series sweep from the Cubbies. Did you make it to the beach on Friday?

[Stormhunter87]

Here comes the heat watches and warning. Some changes after that.

[snowstorm83]

The grass is already browning and it's probably going to be fried after this week. Also funny how it remains humid despite the lack of rain 

[St Paul Storm]

Things evolving rapidly here. Severe thunderstorm watch expanded south to cover the metro. Explosive development just to the west. Multiple warnings already out. Winds have picked up and the clouds are beginning to spin a bit. Some decent shear in place so this could get going quickly.

[gimmesnow]

I was hoping we wouldn't get this. 2008 and 2013 both had very wet springs, then cooler summers, then extremely good winters. My dream analogue is gone with this heat. It's just too hot, my lake gets bad algae blooms and gets ugly when it gets this hot. And when the water temp is low and it doesn't get too hot, it stays quite nice.

[St Paul Storm]

Tornado warning SW of Mpls heading NE. Classic early signature of rotation on dual-pol.

[OKwx2k4]

Personally speaking, it was hard for me to bet against what the Euro/EPS was showing for Week 2 when I made the call for a cooler trend for the following week. I'm glad I stuck with it bc now the EPS is showcasing what the GEFS have been doing all along. Not to often the GFS/GEFS score a coupe.

 

Now the CPC boys are seeing the cooler Week 2 forecast....ahhhh, that's gonna feel nice and we'll be able to finally open up the windows and let in some nice fresh Canadian air.

Bleeding that cold air down the back side of the Ozark plateau is going to be so incredibly refreshing. I have me some nice brush/stick/wood piles laid up already.

It's hard to keep me in a house right now. Most beautiful summer in at least 20 years.

 

I'll also add that there has been at least some type of precip (trace +, heavy drizzle, showers) at or within a mile of me 15/15 days in July. Have never known of that to happen ever.

[St Paul Storm]

New rotation now over Minneapolis. Crazy stuff.

[OKwx2k4]

Andie, and my neighbors up north and west in KS, stay cool tomorrow. Going to be a rough one.

[CentralNebWeather]

Andie, and my neighbors up north and west in KS, stay cool tomorrow. Going to be a rough one. nam3km_T2m_scus_24.png

I am that 79 in South Central Nebraska. The incredibly wet soil and lingering standing water must be the reason we are cooler.

[St Paul Storm]

Small beaches down, tons of leaves ripped from the trees. Power has been out since 5:45. Roughly 40,000 customers in the metro without power. Temp is only 74 but the dew point is still 71 so it’s not comfortable in the house without fans or AC.

[OKwx2k4]

Small beaches down, tons of leaves ripped from the trees. Power has been out since 5:45. Roughly 40,000 customers in the metro without power. Temp is only 74 but the dew point is still 71 so it’s not comfortable in the house without fans or AC.

I guess your name says it all. Crazy storm! Sucks to be out of power though. I had that issue last Monday. Out of 48 hours I was only below 80 degrees (75-78 dew point) for around 4 hours. I was wrecked all week. Stay cool and hydrated. It'll sap all your energy if you don't.

[OKwx2k4]

I am that 79 in South Central Nebraska. The incredibly wet soil and lingering standing water must be the reason we are cooler.

Tropical airmass from the hurricane here (currently) and tons of evapotraspiration from trees here help modify a lot in wet years. Surprisingly, the rock, flint and limestone soil here drains really well and fills the water table rather quickly. Thank goodness.

[Andie]

Andie, and my neighbors up north and west in KS, stay cool tomorrow. Going to be a rough one.

It'll be very hot here. We’re officially in summer but if Tom’s right we may have an early fall.

[MNTonka]

Pretty non-eventful storm season in these parts so far this year, but this one was the biggest of the season, at least for me. 1.25” of rain in less than an hour and some gusty winds. The best part was the awesome sunset afterwards when the storm passed along with some mammatus clouds.

[Stormy]

[Tom]

Small beaches down, tons of leaves ripped from the trees. Power has been out since 5:45. Roughly 40,000 customers in the metro without power. Temp is only 74 but the dew point is still 71 so it’s not comfortable in the house without fans or AC.

I'd say that storm complex trumped any thunderstorm thus far for you this summer???  It only took till mid summer.

[MIKEKC]

Hot and dry in KC...again. LRC called for “ trough that doesn’t move” for the month of July resulting in wet/cool conditions for KC. Quite the opposite is occurring and we are now in need of rain.

 

We may cool off by early next week, however, it does not appear the heat goes too far from KC. It May charge back in here later next week. Not much rain in the long range GFS forecast...

 

Great pool weather!!

[Tom]

Hot and dry in KC...again. LRC called for “ trough that doesn’t move” for the month of July resulting in wet/cool conditions for KC. Quite the opposite is occurring and we are now in need of rain.

 

We may cool off by early next week, however, it does not appear the heat goes too far from KC. It May charge back in here later next week. Not much rain in the long range GFS forecast...

 

Great pool weather!!

 

I've read some of the blog posts from Gary on his site and I see your reasoning how stubborn he can be.  Admittedly, I did not expect the heat to be this strong and long duration.  One can argue that the influence from the Tropical Storm Barry had something to do with it.  Nonetheless, this is the time of year that I begin to see the LRC loose some of its stronger traits which poses risks in longer range forecasting.  Makes it more challenging I'd say.  Enjoy the heat!

[Tom]

I'd like to post some cool thoughts on this warm and muggy morning as nearly everyone on this forum is about to embrace Summer's most intense heat wave of the season.  From time to time, I like to chime in on the weather that is happening around the world and what is sparking my interest today is the Arctic.  Since the beginning of the Summer, the Arctic temps have been overall somewhat near normal, at times AN, but are things going to flip????

 

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

 

 

Sea Ice Extent is at seasonal lows currently....

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en.png

 

Sea Ice Extent has taken a hit esp near Alaska/Barents Sea/N Russia where a lot of the ice has melted this season where in recent years by this time of year it has held up.  A lot of the melting this year has been caused by extended high lat blocking over the Arctic regions.  However, modeling is suggesting as we move past the mid point of the year, the Arctic circle will begin to cool off significantly and subside the melting at the time of year when we expect the most melting to occur.

 

Over the next 6-10 days, a major flip is going to occur over the Arctic circle and the Summer vortex will spin up and cool this region.

 

00z EPS 6-10 day showing the cooling...

 

 

 

00z GEFS  Week 2 hold on to the cooler Arctic....

 

 

 

If we look out farther into Week 3-4 off the CFSv2, the model is showing a cool pattern to persist throughout the month of August.  Is this a clue nature is giving for the months ahead???  IMO, the Arctic will cool off significantly heading into Sept and throughout the Autumn months.  We will see signs of stronger troughs coming off the Arctic circle into Canada and begin to influence our pattern later next month.  Some very fascinating weather will begin to transpire and possible early snows next month up north in Canada???  

 

 

The CFSv2 500mb pattern clearly indicates a strong vortex over the North Pole next month...

 

 

 

 

The CFS models has been sniffing out a colder pattern across N Canada for the month of August, esp in September.  Home brewed early season cold is on the table, esp if the Arctic does in fact cool off as anticipated.  All of these signals are actually following my belief that we are in fact in the midst of a climatic shift.  The glacier up north will build early and often this year.  My gut feeling and intuition are all over this idea and I'm seeing a similar pattern shaping up like we saw back in the Autumns of '13 & '14...."Cross Polar Flow".  The North American Vortex is going to be ferocious this coming cold season.  "If you build it, it will come"....stay cool my friends....

 

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

"....if Tom’s right we may have an early fall."

I've been banking on that since March.

[OKwx2k4]

So, we're running below the 1958-2002 average, yet have less ice?

 

Also, data after 2003 isnt any good? Humm. L

I thought Era 40 ran all the way up to 2010 at one time.

[Tom]

So, we're running below the 1958-2002 average, yet have less ice?

 

Also, data after 2003 isnt any good? Humm. L

I thought Era 40 ran all the way up to 2010 at one time.

I always wondered why they use those years and not a running average...

[Tom]

Boy, the magnitude of the cool air coming might be just as impressive as the heat being advertised....I'm thinking some very chilly nights are in the cards up north and around the GL's region to close out the month.  #BonFireSeason

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

I'd say that storm complex trumped any thunderstorm thus far for you this summer??? It only took till mid summer.

That storm yesterday was by far the best storm of the season. First time we’d been under a t-storm warning in St Paul too. Power was just restored here at my house. It was out for roughly 11 hours.

 

Additional chances for severe storms overnight tonight and a better chance tomorrow. Nice active pattern, finally.

[Niko]

Still worse here with only 0.04" so far this month. Only 0.31" here in the last 3 weeks. Lawns are becoming somewhat crisp.

 

Just so I made it up to 90°yesterday which makes it the 4th consecutive day with a high in the 90°s, but it didn't feel to bad with that brisk south wind . ( Logged a 7 day streak of 90°s earlier this month) 10 days of 90°s so far this month.

You have to be on top of your grass constantly, otherwise, your grass will be brown in no time.

[Stormy]

You have to be on top of your grass constantly, otherwise, your grass will be brown in no time.

I like green grass, but I don't care if I don't need to mow it for a change & in fact, I'm enjoying the break. The caveat.....Now I need to water the garden, etc. Brown grass means it's going dormant for now, and not dying unless there's no rain for 6 or more weeks.

 

There are some pros and cons of these low clouds and light fog (haven't seen this in awhile) that moved in this morning, associated with 'Barry'. The pro is, it's keeping it cooler. The con is when we finally have our best shot at storms this week is it may prevent instability for late day storms.