July 2019 Observations and Discussion

[St Paul Storm]

What is the record? I’m drenching sweat from just standing outside watering the garden... and it usually takes quite a bit to get me sweating.

The record is 82F set in July 2011. I remember that very well. I wasn’t living here at the time but I was in town for the weekend. Disgusting stuff.

[Stormy]

I just hope this area can get a nice, solid line Saturday night.  It's not a sure thing.  Last night's euro hits northern Iowa hard, then transitions everything back west and south.  The WPC only has 0.50" or a bit less falling over ec/se Iowa.  We only get one shot as the front swings through.

If it misses me then we’re having a drought here even if the drought monitor doesn’t show since it’s such a localized area.

[Bryan1117]

If it misses me then we’re having a drought here even if the drought monitor doesn’t show since it’s such a localized area.

Yeah the same for my backyard in Omaha as well. It seems like forever since we have had a rainfall of over an inch in a 24 hour period. Already preparing for the disappointment of watching everything tomorrow evening blow up all around me again.

 

So far in the month of July I doubt my backyard has seen much more than a half inch of rain total. Thus things are looking a little scorched around here where people haven’t been watering.

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow, just hit 99 and 114 with 76 dew. I really don’t remember a higher heat index here. I’m sure it’s happened at some point.

[Niko]

Currently at 82F after hitting 90F earlier this afternoon. Hvy downpours dropped the temp, but still feels unbearable w a D of 74F and HI of 89F. So, this will be considered a heatwave. Tomorrow will be near 100F, actual temp. Lets see if it verifies.

[Hawkeye]

All the KCRG stormnet weather stations(mostly schools) here in the city are >80 dew, except KCRG downtown.  I think we get at least near 80 most years during the most humid part of July.

 

One of the local mets this morning said the Cedar Rapids dewpoint record is 87, set back in 1995 during the big heatwave.  I knew it was at least 84.  Not only was the dew that high, the actual temp hit 100 that day.

[Bryan1117]

Wow, just hit 99 and 114 with 76 dew. I really don’t remember a higher heat index here. I’m sure it’s happened at some point.

98 air temp/78 dewpoint = 116 heat index here currently. I am staying inside the rest of the day.

[St Paul Storm]

Storms taking a turn to the SE but probably too little too late. Models appear to have had this right all along.

[Money]

GB mentioning the warm front farther south than forecasted this way

[MNTonka]

The record is 82F set in July 2011. I remember that very well. I wasn’t living here at the time but I was in town for the weekend. Disgusting stuff.

Dew point jumped up to 81f from 79 in my zip in the past hour. Currently 80 at msp. I think this heatwave might spell the end of the the remnant snow piles at MSP. It’s Incredible that they are still there. https://www.instagram.com/p/B0Ek7SGnmsR/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_mid=XTIwTAAAAAGefWFiYLz8dsTpx-mV

[MNTonka]

For those without Instagram, here is a photo of the remnant snow piles at MSP international airport. July 19th, 2019.

[bud2380]

All the KCRG stormnet weather stations(mostly schools) here in the city are >80 dew, except KCRG downtown.  I think we get at least near 80 most years during the most humid part of July.

 

One of the local mets this morning said the Cedar Rapids dewpoint record is 87, set back in 1995 during the big heatwave.  I knew it was at least 84.  Not only was the dew that high, the actual temp hit 100 that day.

 

I remember that well, if I recall the heat index in Cedar Rapids hit 131 that day.  

[Stormy]

For those without Instagram, here is a photo of the remnant snow piles at MSP international airport. July 19th, 2019.

One reason it lasts so long is that the dirt and grass is insulating it! Years ago my one grandpa used to preserve snow all summer by covering it with sawdust in a small building without AC. We used to go and get some snow to make yummy home made ice cream!

[Stormy]

Last I checked a few hours ago it was 95°/ 79° with HI of 114°. I’m surprised that dews remain so high with a decent wind.

[St Paul Storm]

94/80 feels like 113F. Omg.

 

Storms staying north and remain elevated. Crazy how difficult it is to take advantage of the full potential, summer or winter.

[CentralNebWeather]

Checked 5 different weather apps and sites. At 5 pm I sit at heat index of 114 or 115 with a temp between 98 and 100 and dew between 76 and 78. Just did a little work outside and the sweat kept running into my sunglasses and eyes so I gave up and hibernated to the man cave. Probably won’t like seeing the next electric bill.

[St Paul Storm]

Officially 95/80/115 at MSP Int’l. That’s historic for these parts.

[St Paul Storm]

Gonna waste 6000 J/kg of cape because of the pesky cap. Ok bring on winter storm tracking. This summer junk is too conditional for my liking. Haha.

[Niko]

Radar is looking active to my west. Hopefully some t'stm activity can develop and make it here

[jaster220]

Radar is looking active to my west. Hopefully some t'stm activity can develop and make it here

 

  You look to get pounded if it sticks together! 

[jaster220]

For all of us in the Roaster Oven, I present a few shots I forgot to post after my trip north for the 4th holiday.

 

Everyone, try to "stay cool" 

 

 

 

 

(sorry for the rotated ones)

 

[Money]

STW issued just north of here

 

105 mph wind gusts and tornadoes possible

[Minny_Weather]

A working KDTW radar sure would be nice right about now.

[jaster220]

Radar is looking active to my west. Hopefully some t'stm activity can develop and make it here

 

  You look to get pounded if it sticks together! 

 

Uggh. Pounding FAIL!  Looks like it took a right turn more south than east. A "west sider". Sheesh! Rough day for fairs n festival attendees. First you roast, then you take a pounding:

 

People attending Farmington Founders Festival should seek safe

shelter immediately!

People attending Ann Arbor Art Fairs should seek safe shelter

immediately!

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a

building.

 

HAIL...<.75in>

WIND...60MPH

Edited July 19, 2019 by jaster220

[Niko]

For all of us in the Roaster Oven, I present a few shots I forgot to post after my trip north for the 4th holiday.

 

Everyone, try to "stay cool" 

 

20190706_181457_resized.jpg

 

20190706_184424_HDR_resized (1).jpg

 

20190706_185027_resized.jpg

 

(sorry for the rotated ones)

Awesome pics amigo...but those last 2 really cracked my neck

[Niko]

  You look to get pounded if it sticks together! 

No cigar! They moved south of my area and faded as they did. I am currently getting some cloud to cloud lightning in the distance though, so, who knows.

[St Paul Storm]

For those without Instagram, here is a photo of the remnant snow piles at MSP international airport. July 19th, 2019.

Gotta start to wonder what (if anything) will cause that to completely melt before the next snowfall. If it doesn’t all melt in the next few weeks, there’s a decent chance it might be there in Oct/Nov.

[Beltrami Island]

Gotta start to wonder what (if anything) will cause that to completely melt before the next snowfall. If it doesn’t all melt in the next few weeks, there’s a decent chance it might be there in Oct/Nov.

I remember seeing a similar picture from Buffalo in June of 2015(?) as a result of their November 2014(?) major LES event. It was noted in the story that all the dirt on top of the snow was actually insulating the snow and it was melting from below.

The thermal leg of soil temps means the real melting for this current MSP snow pile would peak in August and continue through September. Even if record cold air temps were to occur, no way any snow pile in the Midwest makes it through summer.

[Stormy]

Highs and lows on my station today: temps = 77°- 96°; dew = 73° - 81°; heat = 119° ( the dew & heat both were 1° higher yet, on my old station which I still haven’t taken down)

My good neighbor who raises thousands of turkeys lost around 200 birds from the first heat wave even with a good ventilation system. I’m hoping they fare better this time with the higher wind speeds!

[jaster220]

I remember seeing a similar picture from Buffalo in June of 2015(?) as a result of their November 2014(?) major LES event. It was noted in the story that all the dirt on top of the snow was actually insulating the snow and it was melting from below.

The thermal leg of soil temps means the real melting for this current MSP snow pile would peak in August and continue through September. Even if record cold air temps were to occur, no way any snow pile in the Midwest makes it through summer.

 

Agreed. Nonetheless, considering it's out in the open and under constant above freezing temps, it's still impressive when you think about it..

[Stormy]

Those are Texas temps.!

When did Iowa slip south? Pole shift?

I think he meant that was the high heat index. First I didn’t notice the ‘HI’ in there and thought he meant air temp.

[snowstorm83]

KLNK has somehow avoided 100, especially with this miserable heat wave. it's very rare for it not to happen so I assume it'll happen at some point.

[Tom]

The record strength jet stream across the northern U.S. certainly delivered atmospheric fireworks for our neighbors up north.  An impressive derecho formed last evening and the storm reports exemplify its trajectory very well.  Interestingly, a possible Seiche may have formed as a result from the strong bowing line of storms that crossed over Lake Michigan last night.

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

I remember seeing a similar picture from Buffalo in June of 2015(?) as a result of their November 2014(?) major LES event. It was noted in the story that all the dirt on top of the snow was actually insulating the snow and it was melting from below.

The thermal leg of soil temps means the real melting for this current MSP snow pile would peak in August and continue through September. Even if record cold air temps were to occur, no way any snow pile in the Midwest makes it through summer.

I appreciate your insights. I hadn’t considered the bottom-up melting process but that totally makes sense.

[Tom]

This month has certainly featured some extreme weather across our country.  Whether it be from the rare, record setting July jet stream racing across the northern U.S. which even brought snow into mountains of B.C. Canada  (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/18/the-strongest-summer-jet-stream-to-hit-the-pacific-northwest-ever/, to the extreme heat that has set up across the eastern U.S., but what's in store for our friends up north???  After flipping through the weather maps this morning, I saw something that stood out and was intrigued by the 500mb pattern setting up next week. 

 

On occasion, I happen to spot things that I feel set the stage or provide clues for our pattern in the longer range.  Take a look at the 00z GEFS Day 7-11 500mb which features a SW Ridge, NW NAMER Ridge, Greenland Block, Hudson Bay Vortex and a Ridge off the SE coast of Canada.  Why am I posting this??  As crazy as this sounds, in year's past I have seen patterns in the Summer actually produce similar  patterns for the following Winter.  After analyzing more data and studying the seasonal trends for the upcoming cold season, my confidence continues to grow that we will likely see ENSO neutral (+/-) or a weak Nina.  With that being said, the below 500mb pattern exemplifies this pattern to a "T" when comparing it to a typical Nina pattern.

 

 

 

 

The forecasted temp pattern is rather impressive in terms of how much widespread cool is being shown and quite a wet pattern that is forthcoming for Week 2.  I feel there is a significant cool shot coming very late in the month as the Arctic, in perfect timing, cools off rapidly and the Flow will come directly out of the North into the lower 48.  It actually will probably snow into parts of the Archipelago and even close to Hudson Bay.

 

 

 

 

 

Both the Canadian/GFS are showing the unusually displaced Vortex to bring some Summer snows up north...

 

 

 

 

 

 

While in the midst of that nations far-reaching Heat Wave, I want to dive deeper into the pattern as I feel nature will be showcasing some clues going forward over the next 4-6 weeks.  IMO, I believe the development of a strong and unusual Summer Vortex across N Canada is going to translate into the early stages of our next cold seasons North American Vortex.  TBH, I think this may rival last year's cycling pattern across North America/Canada and result in a displaced, strong, vicious and wicked Polar Vortex.  What I will be looking into is the pattern up north and across the Arctic.  It just so happens, just as the pattern over the North Pole turns favorable to cool off Arctic temps, does that mean an early build up of Ice/Snow for Autumn???

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

[Niko]

Another muggy, hot day today w temps in the upper 90s w HI in the 100s to possibly 110s. Relief comes tomorrow nite as temps fall into the upper 60s and mid 50s by Monday and Tuesday night. Highs both days will be in the 70s. So refreshing, indeed.

[Niko]

That derecho was sweet, but faded as it came dowm MI. Those can be fun, but dangerous. People need to take action immoderately when such an event is approaching. Last time I experienced that was back in nyc, 2010

 

[Hawkeye]

There are a few nice lines of storms up in MN this morning.

 

Today/tonight is still a bit of a mystery for Iowa.  Models have generally been more bullish for areas well north of CR/IC today, then west and south tonight.  I'm concerned the morning/midday storms moving along the MN/IA border will throw clouds and a boundary well south, setting up southern Iowa for the best action tonight.

[Money]

Enhanced risk for S WI

 

Looks like Rochester area is getting hit hard and then another squall line behind it

[Hawkeye]

It's in the 50s in nw Iowa.