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July 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Any idea what the record is for either of these is? Just curious.

Not sure about the all-time record. I’ll inquire with office in Chanhassen. They’re usually good about responding to public inquiries.

 

Edit: largest yearly actual temp spread is 142F in 1936. Jan 22 was -34F, July 14 was 108F. Not sure yet about Wind chill and heat index records.

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We got down to a low of 56 in Cedar Rapids this morning and it is very nice outside this afternoon. We still could use some heavy rains around here though, I only have 1.72" of rain so far this month and the average rainfall for July here is 3.43". Things are not as dry as they were last week before we got that really intense storm, but my lawn is still not as green as it would be if we got repeated rainfall. 

 

I am hoping to get some good rainfall and thunderstorms this weekend and into next week. 

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Not sure about the all-time record. I’ll inquire with office in Chanhassen. They’re usually good about responding to public inquiries.

 

Edit: largest yearly actual temp spread is 142F in 1936. Jan 22 was -34F, July 14 was 108F. Not sure yet about Wind chill and heat index records.

Always fascinated by weather history. I looked up Nebraska’s spread. All time high 118 in July of 1936. All time low is -47 in 1899. That is a 165 degree spread. You’re correct, no place on earth like the central United States.

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Can't ask for better summer weather than the past couple of days. Highs near 80 and dews in the 50s. Unfortunately it's not going to last very long. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Not sure about the all-time record. I’ll inquire with office in Chanhassen. They’re usually good about responding to public inquiries

 

Edit: largest yearly actual temp spread is 142F in 1936. Jan 22 was -34F, July 14 was 108F. Not sure yet about Wind chill and heat index records.

Thanks for digging that up! I love these kind of useless facts!
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The models have been busting in the extended regarding the state of the NAO.  It seems like all of them have tried to take it (+) in the extended but only to correct it (-).  We have seen both the EPS/GEFS trend towards a solid Greenland Block as we open up the month of August.  Yesterday, marked the 1st day the NAO turned (+) in what has been a historic stretch of days in the (-).  I'll have to dig up the final number of days.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_19.png

 

 

This blocking pattern will try to keep troughs rotating across the northern half of the Sub as the NW Flow pattern locks.  I'm starting to think the SW ridge is going to take up residence and primarily meander in this region for the rest of summer.  Boy, this 500mb pattern sure looks La Nina (ish)....clues keep popping up for our future.

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_9.png

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Plenty of record low's beings set across the southern Sub...I'm sure our friends down in TX/OK are enjoying these temps.

Amen! but it's already on the way back up.

Nice break though.

 

I'd like second helpings, please.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Stormwise, it continues to look like snoozeville around here for the foreseeable future.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Sunny skies attm w temps in the 50s. Cant beat this this time of the year.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wow!

 

July 24th ....... 85* @ noon.

 

DP 58*.

Humidity 37%....!!

 

Gorgeous out there for Texas, baby!

I think we'll have a July without a 100* day.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Crystal clear tanite w lows in the 50s. (Some low 50s in spots) Bonfire night in July??!! WHOA!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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After a "Wonderful Wednesday", a "Terrific Thursday" is on tap today.  Another top notch morning sunrise in the works over here with a very comfy Temp/DP of 63F/50F.  The hazy skies create such beautiful colors as the sun comes up.  We have been spoiled with abundant sunshine and gorgeous weather this week.  I don't mind the drier period we are in but I also understand some need the rains.  Looks like those who missed out on some rains across IA will get their opportunity later Sun into Mon.  Hit or miss chances, better than zero...once this passes on through, the models have locked in on a long lasting cool spell for those of us east/north of the central Plains as blocking blocks up across Greenland.   This is the 2nd time in the past month where the GFS/GEFS whooped the Euro/EPS in the Week 2 forecast.  Cuddo's to the Americans! 

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This LR tool I've come to figure out over the past few years has me convinced there is a correlation where Ridges/Troughs set up within about a 3 week lag period.  Check out where the warming occurs at 30mb between July 7th-11th and how it expands outward.  Now, take a look at the GEFS 500mb pattern 3 weeks from the dates mentioned which brings us to roughly the opening days of August.  Can you see the similarities???  The blocking develops in practically the same regions of North America and the Arctic.  Amazing.  

 

On a side note, has anyone seen met's use this technique before or am I the only one who does???

 

 

 

 temp30anim.gif

 

 

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The JMA Weeklies are lock and steady from last weeks run and illustrating Alaska/Greenland Blocking Week 2 and the continuation of a NW NAMER Ridge for Weeks 3-4.  A big change is in the forecast across Canada resulting in a major trough across eastern Canada.  It's going to get cool and comfy around these parts for a long stretch and I'm totally fine with it.

 

I keep "seeing" something that I can't help but think of Winter...is this a preview????

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_7.png

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79* @ 11 am. Freakin' Amazing for a Texas July morning.

Low humidity for us @ 47*.

 

They're forecasting a high of 90* but I'm not sure we'll make it.

Tomorrow we'll creep up to 93* then over the weekend slowly begin to climb to normal temps and humidity by Monday forward with highs around 98*.

 

It's really been sweet.

It appears we'll make it through July without a 100* day!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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This LR tool I've come to figure out over the past few years has me convinced there is a correlation where Ridges/Troughs set up within about a 3 week lag period.  Check out where the warming occurs at 30mb between July 7th-11th and how it expands outward.  Now, take a look at the GEFS 500mb pattern 3 weeks from the dates mentioned which brings us to roughly the opening days of August.  Can you see the similarities???  The blocking develops in practically the same regions of North America and the Arctic.  Amazing.  

 

On a side note, has anyone seen met's use this technique before or am I the only one who does???

 

 

 

 temp30anim.gif

Tom, what does that mean for precipitation for late July and into August? We are about 2 inches below normal for July rainfall here and I hope we don't have another dry pattern in August. How does the precip outlook look for the next couple of weeks? 

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While we are enjoying a sunny and pleasant week that is not the case in much of Europe.

“On Tuesday, Meteo France registered 41.2C (106.1F) in the south-western city, breaking a 2003 record of 40.7C.

Forecasters predict a record-breaking run across Europe this week, including Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands.

Much of France has been issued with an orange alert - the second highest level of warning.

Meteo France said Paris temperatures might hit new highs on Thursday. The record, set in 1947, stands at 40.4C.

Comparisons have been drawn to a heatwave France experienced in August 2003, during which heat contributed to almost 15,000 deaths.

The mercury is also expected to climb to 40C in a string of countries:”  BTW that 40C is about 104F

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Interesting articles regarding our crop situation across the Midwest: Iowa & Illinois are hurting and when I was worried about the heat wave last week hitting the ag belt, it def impacted crop growth.  Looking out ahead, precip chances are going to be sparse until I think we get into August when the "Ring of Fire" pattern evolves and targets areas farther west from the GL's region.  I think the GL's region is going to get pretty dry in the upcoming blocked up pattern later next week.

 

https://www.prisonplanet.com/shock-survey-12-of-u-s-corn-farmers-didnt-get-their-crops-planted-48-expect-below-average-yields-this-harvest.html

 

https://wqad.com/2019/07/24/stutzkes-stats-midwest-crops-continue-to-lag-behind/

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How will we welcome August??  'Dats one strong -NAO...SW Ridge will create a favorable "Ring of Fire" pattern and storm clusters from waves of energy coming off the PAC.  GEFS won this long range battle.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_8.png

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A little hazy and warmer today, otherwise, a nice summery day. Temps remained in the 80s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It was supposed to be pretty sunny today, but clouds from the showers in western Iowa kept us mostly cloudy, then cloudy.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This LR tool I've come to figure out over the past few years has me convinced there is a correlation where Ridges/Troughs set up within about a 3 week lag period. Check out where the warming occurs at 30mb between July 7th-11th and how it expands outward. Now, take a look at the GEFS 500mb pattern 3 weeks from the dates mentioned which brings us to roughly the opening days of August. Can you see the similarities??? The blocking develops in practically the same regions of North America and the Arctic. Amazing.

 

On a side note, has anyone seen met's use this technique before or am I the only one who does???

 

 

 

temp30anim.gif

I've never watched them in synchronicity like that before but I've long observed the effect like that. One of the greatest ssw events I've studied back in 2011, was preceded by stuff like this. Very very cool!!

 

Also, look at that So. Hemisphere....

No stinking way the lower levels to surface are warm or going to stay warm under that! Heres to flipping it over to our side this winter. I can't wait.

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Interesting articles regarding our crop situation across the Midwest: Iowa & Illinois are hurting and when I was worried about the heat wave last week hitting the ag belt, it def impacted crop growth. Looking out ahead, precip chances are going to be sparse until I think we get into August when the "Ring of Fire" pattern evolves and targets areas farther west from the GL's region. I think the GL's region is going to get pretty dry in the upcoming blocked up pattern later next week.

 

https://www.prisonplanet.com/shock-survey-12-of-u-s-corn-farmers-didnt-get-their-crops-planted-48-expect-below-average-yields-this-harvest.html

 

https://wqad.com/2019/07/24/stutzkes-stats-midwest-crops-continue-to-lag-behind/

Man. :( I have expected this since back in May, (Made a few posts on it) but this is still tragic for our hard-working, underappreciated friends up there. I know it has to feel like trying to grasp grains of sand.

I worry more for what happens after that breaks down later on as well into the very last of summer. #1917-18

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A good search on SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) events of years 2009, 2012-13 and 2013-14 (also Ridiculously Resilient Ridge year), will give some folks a good selection of studies as to the things we may anticipate this winter.

 

Thank you Tom for bringing that up. It jogged my memory a bit.

 

In studying these, you can see why 2012-13s event, although massive, largely excluded the US from the arctic intrusions, while the other two cases did not. The situation I'm seeing for later effects, largely mirrors the 2013-14 structure. That is projecting a long way in terms of meteorology, but it's a great study if you have the time.

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How will we welcome August?? 'Dats one strong -NAO...SW Ridge will create a favorable "Ring of Fire" pattern and storm clusters from waves of energy coming off the PAC. GEFS won this long range battle.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_8.png

Extrapolating forward, this pattern becomes a rex block over Canada if it holds.

Further support for cold fall and early end to summer.

 

See 500mb maps for October 2009 for reference.

 

I may move my thoughts about this to the Autumn thread or write in it some there in the very near future. It just fit with Tom's topic too well not to write on it.

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A good search on SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) events of years 2009, 2012-13 and 2013-14 (also Ridiculously Resilient Ridge year), will give some folks a good selection of studies as to the things we may anticipate this winter.

 

Thank you Tom for bringing that up. It jogged my memory a bit.

 

In studying these, you can see why 2012-13s event, although massive, largely excluded the US from the arctic intrusions, while the other two cases did not. The situation I'm seeing for later effects, largely mirrors the 2013-14 structure. That is projecting a long way in terms of meteorology, but it's a great study if you have the time.

 

While the maps I posted don't represent a SSW event, I have found that it is useful in forecasting where ridges may form in the extended period.  This is more of a cold season tool but it does provide some evidence of being useful in the warm season.  

 

Your thoughts on this Autumn mirror what I'm starting to see and believe.  

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Happy Friday!  #TGIF  My goodness, haven't we been spoiled with some amazing summer weather???  I know it's been dry around here but you can't beat this stretch of sunny, warm and less humid days.  Are we going to get spoiled again next week with another stretch of "HP for Days"???  Yup, sign me up!  

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Tom, what does that mean for precipitation for late July and into August? We are about 2 inches below normal for July rainfall here and I hope we don't have another dry pattern in August. How does the precip outlook look for the next couple of weeks? 

It looks sparse around these parts, but your area and points west/south will prob do better over the next couple weeks into August.  I anticipate blocking to be strong and result in many dry days around the GL's region heading into August.  There is going to be a period in early August (2nd-4th) when I expect a very strong Summer CF, almost Autumnal-like, to deliver some healthy rains but overall a drier period is forthcoming.  This is the suppression I was initially thinking would happen during the second half of July, but now seems like a lock to close out the month and heading into August.

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A remarkable, yet fascinating wx pattern is poised to develop during the 1st full week of August across the Arctic and into the Lower 48.  Immense high-lat blocking, coupled with a displaced Summer Vortex is positioned to evolve into a "Polar Flow".  Just as the Arctic cools off, the timing couldn't be any better, to deliver a significant cool shot Week 2 into the central CONUS.   

 

The animation below off the 00z GEFS is suggesting both the Polar and southern jet stream to converge during the opening week of August.  This is a very unusual pattern to see in the summer months and likely a caveat of Low Solar as we are in the midst of the Solar Minimum.  This is the type of pattern that I think will deliver some beneficial rains and also some chilly summer mornings ahead.  

 

It's quite amazing to see how far south the Hudson Bay Vortex is showing up on the models later in the extended period.  Hey, at least we will be saving on our electric bills...$$$avings

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.png

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