Stormy Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Congrats to you CR folks on your nice rain storm! When I saw it blow up over CR I guessed Hawkeye, etc got at least an inch. Only a trace here so far as a nice cell crapped out just before it got here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 I have a cousin from Miami that was visiting here on the 4th of July when it was quite warm and sultry. I told her this is about like their weather, but she said this is nothing and it's worse there. I would say it's just as bad in Iowa at times though, in the summer!We are not a usually as humid here as eastern Nebraska. However, when irrigation is in full swing and the corn is putting off moisture, we can get sultry. No irrigation yet this year but our large amount of rain recently is probably contributing some imo. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Saw one report of 2.45" somewhere near CR. That notification disappeared before I saw the location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 We are not a usually as humid here as eastern Nebraska. However, when irrigation is in full swing and the corn is putting off moisture, we can get sultry. No irrigation yet this year but our large amount of rain recently is probably contributing some imo.I agree with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 My husband just got back from a business trip to Chicago and he said the humidity is far worse there than our Gulf humidity. Those Great Lakes can really pump. Out the moisture. He said he was sweating buckets. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Wow, most of Iowa is in a slight risk area for today. The SPC probably is expecting that bowing cluster of storms in se. SD. to continue moving southeast across Ia. or something. Didn't take time to read their discussion. Areas along and north of hwy 30 even have a flash flood watch for tonight. We're really needing rain here. During the daytime the corn resembles pineapple.(Leaves are rolling up from moisture stress.https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ PS. I got a whopping 0.03" of rain last eve. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 DVN AFD: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDDVN&e=201907170847 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Heatwave on its way as temps starting tomorrow will approach the 90s and possibly near 100F on Friday. Saturday remains quite hot as well as temps flirt between 95-100F. Pair of CF's on Sunday will finally end this heatwave, especially for early next week as temps remain in the low 80s for highs and lows in the upper 50s to around 60F w tons of sun. Note: Warnings will most likely be posted today for Friday n Saturday for this upcoming heat. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Currently, after some rainfall last night, are hovering at 72F w a dew nof 72F as well which gives me a RH of 100%. It is darn right humid out there. Looks like Barry will be finally exiting my area as the day wears on. Ba bye Barry. Nice see ya! Note: Areas to my south last night got some really hvy rainfall (Detroit Metro Area included). Not as hvy in my neck of the woods. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 The CAMs are totally whiffing on the severe MCS plowing through Siouxland this morning. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Have to eat crow. Barry remnants striking pretty hard here after all..Barry was not joking. I was thinking he just might brush our areas, but instead, he provided some extra water. I even had a few wind gusts yesterday, 25 to 30mph from him. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 The CAMs are totally whiffing on the severe MCS plowing through Siouxland this morning.Yep, and it will have major implications on how things play out later today. To say the models have struggled lately is an understatement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 That's a very colorful hazard map this morning. Totally surprised I'm in a flash flood watch tonight. Would love to get some storms! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Had no idea there was a chance of rain tonight. Hopefully that happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 The complex moving in from the Dakotas is starting to split into two pieces near Fergus Falls, MN. Most of the models showed that, so let’s see if we can get this thing to die off and provide the basis for redevelopment later today. SPC has shifted the slight risk just south of here with the morning update. Way too many variables in play to be confident in any solution right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 1499NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0909 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019Areas affected...southeast SD...far southern MN...northeastern NEand much of IAConcerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...Valid 171409Z - 171545ZThe severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514continues.SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may continue east/southeast acrossIA through late morning. Storms could re-intensify this afternoon,with an accompanying damaging wind threat spreading across much ofIA and a downstream watch may be needed.DISCUSSION...An intense bow echo overnight has continued to producesporadic strong gusts of around 35-50 kt from FSD into northwest IAover the least 60-90 minutes. Some weakening has been noted in radarand lightning trends on the north end of the bowing segment alongthe IA/MN border. Further south near the IA/NE border some periodicintensification has been noted with isolated cells trying to developalong the southern flank/outflow boundary across far eastern NE.These storms remain in a weakly unstable environment above a cappinginversion, noted in regional 12z RAOBs. As strong heating occursahead of the bow (temperatures already in the low 80s acrosssouth-central IA), strong destabilization will occur, with forecastMLCAPE values ranging from around 3000 J/kg across central IA toaround 1500 J/kg toward the MS River near eastern IA/western IL.Strong effective shear will remain oriented along this instabilitygradient as a shortwave impulse crests the Upper Midwest/northernPlains upper ridge. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles indicatefavorable conditions for a continuation and re-invigoration ofconvection heading into the afternoon with very steep lapse ratesabove a weak EML.While there may be a relative lull in convective intensity thismorning due to weak capping, as heating and further destabilizationerode the cap, additional development by midday/early afternooncould pose a more widespread threat across central into eastern IA.Damaging wind gusts and hail are the most likely threat, however,forecast hodographs do indicate sufficient SRH with backed low levelwinds through 1km to support some tornado threat. This threat couldmanifest through either mesovortex spin-ups if the bowing linesegment convective mode persists, or through supercell mesocycloneprocesses if any discrete cells can form. Trends are being monitoredclosely and a new watch downstream WW 514 may be needed in the next1-2 hours.Additional storms are developing in southern SD, likely atop thecold pool with increased ascent due to the eastward migratingshortwave impulse. This convection could post an isolated severethreat through the morning but longevity of this activity is moreuncertain. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 The heat is a bit more manageable now because of all of the rain we got yesterday. Before yesterday my lawn was turning yellow and was really dry. Today, it is much greener and looks much better than it did yesterday. I am still watching that line out in Central Iowa. I sure hope it makes it here. Looks like it would get here in maybe 3 hours or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Quite the line of storms pushing into Iowa. Just missed the severe storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 It's not losing any steam. Looks like I'm gonna get something. I'm more interested to see what happens later into tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Looks like that complex will slide south of here. I have no issue with that, as I really need to cut the grass today and the rain would ruin that. My bigger worry is whether or not this could impact tonight's potential. Anyone know if it could? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Today looks to be the first day of the heat wave over here. Already 87 with a heat index of 93 at the 10 am obs. Should make a run for 100 by the afternoon. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 12z runs all over the place with where convection fires later today and tonight. Some even have MSP missing the action as it’s too far north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued for eastern Iowa until 7:00PM. I am surprised it's until that late, those storms will be out of here well before 7:00pm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Dang, we have a work outing outside this afternoon. Hope these storms come and go by 3pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 It feels very tropical outside. Temps are only in the upper 70s, but, RF makes it feel a very uncomfortable 85F Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 It appears the southern half of the line will be the strongest, where the best instability is. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 It appears the southern half of the line will be the strongest, where the best instability is.So Cedar Rapids probably won’t see the best of this line, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 So Cedar Rapids probably won’t see the best of this line, right? Radar shows the heavier stuff sagging southeast through the Des Moines area while the northward extension is thinning and weakening. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Redevelopment on the backside in NW IA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Radar shows the heavier stuff sagging southeast through the Des Moines area while the northward extension is thinning and weakening.Yeah I noticed. When I saw it surging southeast already in SD this morning I was afraid the best part of the line may end up going even south of me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Looks like that complex will slide south of here. I have no issue with that, as I really need to cut the grass today and the rain would ruin that. My bigger worry is whether or not this could impact tonight's potential. Anyone know if it could?Don’t remember where I saw it, but it was mentioned it definitely could affect the trajectory of the future storms. Like James mentioned, there is redevelopment in nw. Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 SPC with a major change in the slight risk region. Everyone from the Canadian border to St Louis is in the mix. That broad of an area tells me they have no idea what’s going to happen. Latest HRRR says no one sees anything except N MN due to the unexpected IA storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 The radar slightly reminds of 6-30-14, just not as severe yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 [quote name="St Paul Storm" post="477464" timestamp="1563383466Lol..HRRR is on drugs. I honestly don’t remember the HRRR being so bad with storms. It’s not even fully taking into account what’s already happening when the new runs initialize. It’s whacked out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Don't know if I've ever seen a Slight Risk area like that before. Almost covers the entire state of Minnesota haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 The south end could see some training per radar trends. Also currently some training in nw. Ia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Looking like Ottumwa area could get rocked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Nice steady rain here with some rumbles of thunder. Man that feels good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 I can actually smell the fresh air from the rain. Smells like fall haha. The Excessive Heat Watch start time has been pushed back til tomorrow PM for my area. Was supposed to be today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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