April 2023 Observations and Disussion

[Tom]

Is Winter finally going to take a break this month???  Nope.  Not for those up north as the globals and climate models are suggesting the upper level  pattern to blocking up with ridges up top and on both coasts of North America.  Not a favorable set up if you want warmth, unless of course, you live south in the S Plains/OHV where I do see it warming up nicely to open up APR.  Your typical fight of the seasons is going  to be the epitome of the clash of air masses.  

@hawkstwelve @james1976 @Madtown @

 

 

CFSv2 take on April....boy, this is a major signal for the MW/Plains/OHV to get pounded by severe wx this month....the big ticket storm showing up around 4/4 is the next possible BEAST to showcase both the winter side of things and severe wx.  The Winter of 2022-23 that seemingly never wants to end shall continue this month.  Lets set some new records and make this one hellova season to remember for those up north.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Upper MW Glacier shall use it's Magnet and pull another one out of its bag of tricks...

 

 

 

0z Euro dialing up a monster Blizzard...hmmmm

 

 

Kidding aside, but this ain't no joke if the EPS is to be used as guidance along with its EPS Weeklies from last run....opening 12 days of April look like a NOV pattern.

 

 

 

@Madtown will be shoveling till MAY!

[Madtown]

This could get a little ridiculous. Currently sitting at 12 degrees with light flurries off the lake mixed with sun. Trails close midnight on Fri. Not sure we have open water for fishing opener on May 6th if this continues. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS wants to put snow down again over Central and Western Nebraska next Wednesday.  I would usually disregard this in April, but last weekend's system overperformed here and we have had snowstorms in April during the last decade.  Will never turn down more moisture.

[Madtown]

Anyone have the Euro Kuchera?

[Iceresistance]

@Andie @Black Hole @OKwx2k4

Climate Prediction Center has above average rainfall for 3-4 weeks in a row in the Southern Plains!

 

Also for @CentralNebWeather since Western Nebraska has Above Average Rainfall for 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

 

April does look promising.

[Andie]

Wow.  
We need it. After what felt like a very dry winter everything is waking up slowly this Spring. It’s been quite chilly too. So rain will be welcomed!!   Bring it on.  

[MIKEKC]

March 31st! KC will finish March with 3-3.5 degrees below average. It was a cold, wet, cloudy month. Just a few warm days, most days were miserable. IT certainly slowed the start of spring as far as the grass, tree blooms and perennial flowers go. Coming out of FEB, I thought spring would be in full bloom by now. We're close, grass is about to take off, plenty of moisture in the ground.

KC looks to go dry for some time which will be a change as we have struggled to get more than 2-3 days of dry weather for the last few months.  We have a slight chance of storms tomorrow and maybe next Wednesday, but, overall a pretty good dry stretch! 

 

[Tom]

As the SER relaxes, the west coast ridge shall blossom as we approach Easter Weekend and a much needed break will be welcomed by our California friends and across the SW.  I was taking a walk the other day around the fountain and I heard a couple people talking about how cold its been out here.  That is the theme and many folks will be thrilled to see consistent 80's in the forecast by Easter weekend into the following week.  The seasons 1st 90's not out of the question for PHX.

0z EPS...a wet pattern shaping up for the easter CONUS...

 

In terms of temps, a roller coaster ride is expected across much of the MW/GL's...

 

[tStacsh]

Golf League starts April 18th.  I'm used to the first 2 weeks being cold.  Last year we had sleet the 2nd week.  So anything above 45-50 will be great this year!

[Clinton]

Gary Lezak indicates next weeks severe threat may be larger and further west.

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

 

 

There are two significant severe weather risks developing in the next seven days, as predicted by the #LRC 75 days ago. The first risk is likely east of KC, and the second risk next week, may be even more significant & this will be monitored closely!

[Andie]

I like that rain, Tom!!

[Tom]

13 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Could Sunday be the day Sioux Falls finally breaks 50 for the first time this season? It would be good enough for a tie in 2nd place (along with 4/2/1915) for the latest 50+ degree reading. 

I've had some meetings with new doctors lately and when I tell them we moved from the PNW they go, "You sure picked a heck of a winter to come" and I usually respond with something like, "Yeah I know I love it!" Gets me some weird looks but it's a nice conversation starter!

Strong thunderstorm outbreaks last spring/summer followed by a historic, record breaking winter? Couldn't have gone any better - Welcome to the Plains!

I thought about this the other day and how you must be enjoying your experience ever since moving out into the Great Plains.  As a weather enthusiast, you can't ask for a better scenario going from summer to Fall/Winter the way it happened up in the Upper MW this year.  I love experiencing all kinds of weather and that's why when I come out into the desert SW it sorta balances out the volatility in the wx dept back home in the MW.  

[Tom]

Back-2-Back Blizzards for the Upper MW???  What a year for them folks up north...

0z Euro...

 

[Tom]

EPS weeklies from yesterday...strong signal for a stout west based -NAO to develop this month into MAY...some periods of warmer wx looking like they'll show up in mid April which will bring somewhat of a break in the colder/cooler wx but then the blocking comes back and May looks "coolish".  The JMA weeklies are pretty darn similar.

 

Very wet signal from the MW and points East as we head into MAY...not ideal for farmers and moist soils.  The Texarkana Region is showing signs of a Hot Spot for rounds of Severe Wx as more troughs continue to roll on out into the Plains/MW.  

[Clinton]

Some of the same areas getting hit with severe weather today look to also be the target next week.

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0407 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

   CORRECTED TYPOS IN TEXT

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo
   substantial amplification across the northern and middle latitudes
   of the Pacific during this period.  This appears likely to include
   the evolution of a broad, deep mid-level trough which will support
   strong cyclogenesis to the southeast of the Aleutians by the end of
   next week.  Downstream flow is then forecast to split near the North
   American Pacific coast, with ridging building across the far western
   Canadian provinces and troughing across the U.S. Great Basin and
   Southwest, before converging into broad troughing across the
   northwestern Atlantic.

   Prior to these developments, a significant mid-level short wave
   trough is forecast to emerge from the Intermountain West Monday into
   early Tuesday, before contributing to strong cyclogenesis across the
   central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday through Tuesday
   night.  The mid-level perturbation may be accompanied by a 100 kt
   cyclonically curved 500 mb jet, contributing to strong deep-layer
   shear across the warm sector of the surface cyclone, where
   intensifying southerly 850 mb flow may contribute to large,
   clockwise curved low-level hodographs.

   The GFS, ECMWF and their respective ensembles seem to be coming in
   better agreement with the late afternoon and early evening track of
   the surface cyclone across the northeastern Kansas into southeastern
   Nebraska vicinity, with a warm front extending across southern Iowa
   and the dryline trailing from the surface low southward near the
   Missouri/Kansas border.  The dryline may become the focus for the
   initiation of strongest storms, which will tend to propagate
   northeastward before being overtaken by a surging cold front.

   There is some concern that a more subtle mid-level impulse may
   contribute to thunderstorm initiation within the open warm sector,
   across parts of the Ozark Plateau early in the day, and negatively
   impact destabilization across that area, and perhaps areas to the
   north.  However, if this does not become a mitigating factor, a
   substantive organized severe weather event may evolve, including
   potential for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts
   Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the lower Missouri
   Valley vicinity.

[westMJim]

Looking back at March 2023 the mean at Grand Rapids was 35.4 the high for the month was 58 set on the 31^st the low for the month was 15 set on the 18^th there was a total of 5.22” precipitation of that there was 23.3” of snow fall that was the most snow fall since 1971. It was the 1^st time it did not reach 60 or better since 2018. At Lansing the mean for the month was 35.8 the high for the month was 58 set on the 31^st the low for the month was 18 set on the 18^th and 30^th There was 15.7” of snow fall. It was also the 1^st March since 2018 that did not reach 60. Lansing had a total of 15.7” of snow fall that was the most March snow fall since 1971 there.

 

[westMJim]

Record rain fall at Grand Rapids. With several rounds of thunderstorm with heavy rain fall a new record was set for March 31st at Grand Rapids with a total of 2.02” the old record of 1.17” fell in 1967.

Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 58/39 That 58 was set around 9:30 last night. There was rain fall of 2.02” there was no sunshine yesterday. Overnight the peak wind gust looks to be 43 MPH the temperature was in the upper 50’s just 2 hours ago but is now down to 41 here in MBY. For today the average H/L is 52/32 the record high of 82 was set in 2010 and the record low of 13 was set in 1954. The record snow fall amount of 4.8” fell in 1972. Last year April Fools was a cold 37/25 and there was a trace of snow fall.

[Clinton]

I guess it's going to be a windy week but at least it's going to be warmer.  Strong storms Tuesday and the first 80+ degree day in awhile.

[Clinton]

Started a thread for next weeks storm as it looks very similar to what just occurred.

[Tom]

0z EPS...things are about to get a bit Toasty out across the west...I'm ready!  The valley of the Sun may be baking in the heat come Easter Sunday as the seasons 1st 90's are on the table.  The reversal of the dominant -PNA pattern will be welcomed for many folks out in the western CONUS.

 

 

Hmmm, that -EPO look isn't ideal for sustained warmth....

 

[Stacsh]

It appears winter is finally over for the lower Great Lakes.  

[chescowxman]

After the strong frontal passage last night much chillier today with highs remaining in the 40's for most of the county. Frost advisory is in effect for tonight with a low near freezing. Warmer weather for most of this week through Thursday....cooler to close out the week into next weekend.

Records for today: High 86 (1967) / Low 17 (1923) / Rain 1.26" (1977). Today is the first day since November 9th that there has been no recorded snow on this date in county history since 1888.

[Clinton]

One of the nicest days of Spring so far.  Currently 78 with bright sunshine, it was a great day to get out and do some fishing and ride the ATVs.  Haven't had many like this especially on the weekend.

[CentralNebWeather]

Not a great pattern. Much of the Central Plains is still in some form of drought. 

 

[Grizzcoat]

BIsmarck,ND has not seen a above normal avg daily temp since Feb 19th. 42 days and counting-- I can't ever recall something like this in the Upper Midwest since  I've been following climo/weather in 25 years. 

TODAY'S DATE: 3-APR-23 APR-23 FOR BISMARCK, ND (1660') LAT=46.8N LON=100.8W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 37 1 19 50 25 38 -19 0.00 0.0 18 46 2 44 28 36 50 26 38 -2 0.01 0.0e 0 29

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at GRR was 49/24 There was no rain/snow fall and there was 60% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was a mild 43 and it is now up to 46 here and 48 at GRR. For today the average H/L is 52/33 the record high of 80 was set in 1999 and the record low of 10 was set in 1965. The record snow fall of 6.0” fell in 1926.  Last year the H/L was 49/33. The next 5 days look to be wet and mild with a cool down for Thursday and Friday. It looks like we will see our 1st 60° day and there is a chance we could also see our 1st 70° day of 2023.

[westMJim]

Today is the anniversary of the 1956 tornado here in Grand Rapids.

https://www.weather.gov/grr/1956TornadoOutbreakVrieslandTrufant

 

[Tom]

Took a last minute trip up to Sedona yesterday to visit some friends and took some nice videos and pics as I entered “Red Rock Nation.”  I always enjoy coming up here and soaking in all the beauty and energy.  
 

The snow seen from distance in Flagstaff was strikingly beautiful and popped against the blue skies.

 

Sedona is just a magical place and the last video is when I climbed up to a hill top near the airport that is a local Vortex.  It was quite windy up there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

The models are suggesting a long warm spell to development over much of the Heartland and our Sub starting on Good Friday a delivers a splendid Easter weekend for many!  A much welcomed pattern shaping up as it will finally look and feel like Spring.  Maybe some early season Heat for the S Plains?  By mid month the pattern should fire up again post 15th/16th across the central ag belt.

[Beltrami Island]

2.0" of QPF for Thief River Falls shown here to fall as all pretty much all snow.  Pretty crazy as there is no elevation or lake enhancements going on in NW MN.  

[tStacsh]

Easter weekend looks nice and then a quick cool front and beyond that looks to really bring in spring.  

[Madtown]

no teasing, if spring is showing up she better stay around

[Clinton]

Back to back awesome weather days, currently 80 with a touch of humidity and light winds.  The wind comes back in full force tomorrow.

[Hawkeye]

The 00z GFS has low 90s into Nebraska by the 11th.  The entire run is very mild to warm after this week's short cool-down.

[Hawkeye]

Tonight's Euro...

It has temps approaching 100º in Kansas, with 90s getting into sw Iowa.  We don't need the already-parched plains to blowtorch like this in mid April.

[westMJim]

Most of lower Michigan is now in the enhanced risk area for Wednesday. We shall see how this plays out. It also looks like Wednesday will be the warmest day of 2023 so far. Thursday looks to be windy and much cooler. The official H/L at GRR yesterday was 58/44 there was 0.37” of rain fall before midnight, there was 12% of possible sunshine. That 58 is the warmest it has gotten so far this year. Overnight low here in MBY and the current temperature is 43 with light rain falling. For today the average H/L is 53/33 the record high of 77 was set in 1921 and the record low of 13 was set in 1971. The record snow fall for today is 2.5” in 1920. Last year the H/L was 47/33 with 0.42” of rain fall and 0.1” of snow fall

[westMJim]

I now have my rain gauge out for the season and I have 0.54” of rain fall for yesterday and overnight.

[Andie]

71*.  Looking for a high of 87 today.  
Humid, 79%.  
Despite having a heavy cloud cover it’s a no go for rain.  

Really?  When is it going to rain?!
It’s Spring!  Hello!!

 

[Tom]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Tonight's Euro...

It has temps approaching 100º in Kansas, with 90s getting into sw Iowa.  We don't need the already-parched plains to blowtorch like this in mid April.

Ya, leave the Heat for us down here in the PHX valley...expecting a string of 90's starting Easter Weekend into early next week.  Some parts of the desert will prob hit 100F next Mon/Tue.

 

[Tom]

The mid-month warm and wet signal is looking good for the central ag belt region...Week 2 is looking balmy...

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/43 there was 0.50” of rain fall. GR had just 11 minutes  of sunshine. Overnight the temperatures rose from a low of 46 here in MBY to the current reading of 59 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 53/33 the record high of 81 was set in 1988 and the record low of 12 was set in 1995. The record snow fall of 8.6” fell in 1952. Last year it was 56/36.

Officially Grand Rapids now has reached Its 1st 60 day with a current reading of 65 here in MNY it is now cloudy and 59. We are in an enhanced area for thunderstorms today. There is a line of storms off to the west and that looks to be where the severe storms would come from.

[Andie]

Big change today.  
Currently 64* at 7am
Humidity 34%….wow. 
Enjoy it while I can.  However, we do need the rain. 

[Tom]

Is this Winter's last Hoorah here in AZ?  Flagstaff has dipped down to a bone chilling +7F this morning and where I'm at its a very nippy 39F.  Yup, the Furnace is STILL being used as I write.  I'm very much looking forward to the 90's, although, I won't be acclimated to the quick reversal towards early summer Heat.  We are looking at a string of 90's from Easter till Wed out here and that means we will have the A/C running for the 1st time this season.

[Tom]

I remember vividly wayy back in mid or late OCT of last year when I picked up my parents from the airport I had the A/C on and temps in the 90's.  The following day, I had the Furnace turned on as a powerful CF swept through and the pattern literally flipped on a dime.  Since then, it's been one heckova cold season and residents/visitors of this state (AZ) are ready for consistent warmer weather. 

Having said that, I'm always looking forward in time and I see another tremendous Monsoon season on the agenda for the SW and InterMountain West.  The lakes and reservoirs are not likely to take a dip this year and there are + signs that it'll lead towards more drought busting rains.  Mother Nature is in full control and She appears to be delivering the goods more often than not over the course of this year.  Is yet another banner start to the Cold season on tap???  I strongly believe so....#STJ...Have a wonderful Wednesday!  #HumpDay

[Hawkeye]

I received 0.33" total yesterday and overnight.  The grass is greening up.  The trees, shrubs, and lawns will really take off over the next ten days.

[CentralNebWeather]

Not a drop of rain around here.  The amount of times that we have been dry slotted is amazing over the years.  Everything is still brown/dormant, no leaves or anything budding out.  Cold temps and wind haven't helped our situation.  Nowhere near as bone dry as last Spring, but many aren't doing that much better unfortunately.  

[Black Hole]

Looks quiet for a while for Tulsa. Next legit chance of severe weather is probably 7-10 days out. 

[bud2380]

I think I'm gonna cry.  Actual spring weather.  It's so beautiful.

 

[Clinton]

Frost advisory for tonight but some great Spring weather is on it's way.

[Andie]

63 and 27% humidity.  
Gotta love this.