We had an incident earlier today due to someone having a compromised account. If you're reading this but can't log in, create a new account and make sure your password isn't something that I can Google search for.
NOAA has been having a rough time lately. Horrible busts last winter on both the seasonal and subseasonal scales. Idk what their methodology is but it’s been failing them since the niño established.
IIRC they rely heavily on the IRI which is notoriously bad when seasonal/LF forcing components destructively interfere w/ canonical EOFs (example: strong niño in tandem with -PMM).
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Posted by iFred,
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