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April 2023 Observations and Disussion


Tom

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3 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

HORRIBLE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN ALERT!

OMG, the long range data is March like with several freeze potentials. The GFS doesn't have a 65 in there after today for the next few weeks, most days land in the 50's, some 40's. for KC. 

 

NO!!!

Welcome to transition from La Nina to El Nino.  I said a month ago this looks like 2009 all over again.   Hot everywhere in the world but the Midwest.  

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7 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

All rain and severe weather missed my area again just off to the Southeast.  It is a several year long broken record at this point.  Things were looking good with the snow we got this winter, but now it has dried out, and the drought rages on.  Have to hope El Nino is kind to parts of the Central Plains.

One night last week they had some good storms in South Central Kansas where my sister lives. She said they had 1.50" of rain after 60 farmers had gathered to pray for rain as they were desperately dry! The wheat crop there probably is toast, and heard some were tilling it under! And farmers were waiting to plant corn till it rains. My sister's family are not farmers, but they still thought the dryness is depressing. It appears they may get some rainfall out there again next week, hopefully. 

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Around midnight I heard a little thunder with only a trace of rainfall here since that time. Hopefully this system overperforms and we'll get some heavy rain producing thunderstorms later tonight. It's actually quite dry as field tile lines are not even running much. A warm front moved through this forenoon with temp surging into the low 70⁰s after 11:00 a.m.

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We were expecting the warm front to surge north and allow our temp to get into the low 70s.  Unfortunately, the front stalled out to the south.  We got up to 66º around midday, but then went backward all afternoon.  We are in the upper 50s now.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tornado spotted outside of OKC.  
Tomorrow will bring possible storms through Texas.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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While I was mowing some grass this evening the wind (was calmish and very mild) suddenly picked up from the east again and it felt chilly in seconds, it seemed like, as the front sagged back south. 

I'm not liking how many of the CAMs are again showing the heaviest rain staying just to my nw.

 

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13 hours ago, james1976 said:

"It's raining cats and dogs" according to my weather station

IMG_20230419_213652.jpg

Yeah the Davis stations say that for rain rates at 0.30" or above, or at least mine does. 😃 

Is it calm there or don't you have an anemometer? Mine rarely shows calm as it turns in the slightest breeze.

Actually, I see the wind direction was really variable there recently and it probably happened to be calm when you took the photo. 

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16 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

HORRIBLE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN ALERT!

OMG, the long range data is March like with several freeze potentials. The GFS doesn't have a 65 in there after today for the next few weeks, most days land in the 50's, some 40's. for KC. 

 

NO!!!

We have hydroseeded over 8 acres past several days.  With all the cold nights and as of this moment  only .70 inches of rain first 19 days  of April  its not gonna  grow. Tons of daily wind dried out the .40 from Saturday. I have some corn to plant but am not gonna risk it.  Too many cold nights coming. Many farmers here planted corn around  april 10 it may sit in ground 25 days  before poking thru? Not to mention  that although  fruit trees are in bloom there  could be huge  issues with pollination  since bees wont be very active.. Gotta say Iowa might have best soil on the planet  but Ive lived many spots with  better weather for growing things!!!

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For what it is worth Happy 7/20. Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 57/31. Officially there was 0.16” of rain fall, before the rain there was 35% of possible sunshine. Here at my house there was 0.48” of rain fall most of that fell during some heavy rain that fell during a thundershower.

For today the average H/L is now up to 60/39 the record high of 83 was set in 1987 and the record low of 13 was set way back in 1897. Snow fall is now becoming much more rare and the record for today is just 0.4” in 1943. At the current time it is cloudy here and 41 with a cool east wind.

I cut the grass yesterday for the 1st time this year. I know there was a mention yesterday of cutting the grass this year has been extra early but that may not be the case. Temperatures profiles suggest that mid and late April grass cuts have happened in at least 2017,2012, 2008, 2006 1987 and 1985. I am sure that there are others as well.

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A line of storms began to gust out a bit as it moved through last night.  I was able to get a decent 0.64" of rain.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just really hard to believe at this point that again last night not one drop of rain.  They had been predicting 50-60% of likely rain and storms all week.  If it wasn't bad enough around here before this week, it just continues to worsen.  I have farmers in my family, and they are so disappointed as my brother in law was kind of banking on this rain.  Next week looks promising, but then the next week comes and chances dry up.  Recurring theme for well over 2 years now. 

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Low spots like Marsh Creek touched the 30's this morning, while higher spots like East Nantmeal could go no lower than the upper 40's. Today will be near 10 degrees above normal in the mid-70's with tomorrow reaching the 80's. Showers should arrive late Saturday with a stretch of below normal temps looking likely next week to close out April and to open up the month of May.
Records for today: High 90 (1976) / Low 23 (1926) / Rain 1.67" (1940) and Snow 2.2" (1983)
image.png.2d6e594bb53442b17c3a65242d0b62e5.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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15 hours ago, Sparky said:

One night last week they had some good storms in South Central Kansas where my sister lives. She said they had 1.50" of rain after 60 farmers had gathered to pray for rain as they were desperately dry! The wheat crop there probably is toast, and heard some were tilling it under! And farmers were waiting to plant corn till it rains. My sister's family are not farmers, but they still thought the dryness is depressing. It appears they may get some rainfall out there again next week, hopefully. 

When God answers their prayers....the power of prayer!  Nice way to end April on a soggy note for those who need it badly.  IMHO, a very wet pattern is shaping up for the heartland of the Nation and into May.  May Grey???  

 

image.png

 

 

The JMA weeklies are showing a large scale trough for the Eastern CONUS through Week 3 of May...

2.png

Temp...

Screen Shot 2023-04-20 at 7.33.18 AM.png

 

Precip...

Screen Shot 2023-04-20 at 7.33.24 AM.png

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Just really hard to believe at this point that again last night not one drop of rain.  They had been predicting 50-60% of likely rain and storms all week.  If it wasn't bad enough around here before this week, it just continues to worsen.  I have farmers in my family, and they are so disappointed as my brother in law was kind of banking on this rain.  Next week looks promising, but then the next week comes and chances dry up.  Recurring theme for well over 2 years now. 

Another one of my sister's family moved out to central Nebraska (just nw. of Grand Island) about a year ago. They can make it rain whenever they want to with irrigation for all of their crops there! Their water level is so shallow there that they don't want basements! I understand they can irrigate for free except for the cost of pumping. I still would rather have plentiful natural rainfall! 

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Last night's rainfall kind of underperformed once again right here with much heavier amounts just a few miles to the west. Had lots of lightning and only brief downpours. The first round dropped just over a half inch then this morning another round of weakening stratiform rain gave another 0.18" for a total of 0.70". Thankful we got that much, and it rained from about every direction, watering plants on every side of the house. 

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I wouldn't be surprised next week's rain all ends up south of my area.

 

BTW, the low of 30⁰ from the last cold spell didn't appear to damage anything here. I'm just hoping it doesn't get colder than that from the next freezes, but good chance it could. 

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Duluth broke their all time snowiest winter record earlier today with more tonight. Currently 137".

Speaking of Duluth-- not a good day to take a stroll in Canal Park-

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=duluth+harbor+webcam#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:1b0b6050,vid:9k_sg8rhsgk

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 hours ago, Sparky said:

Another one of my sister's family moved out to central Nebraska (just nw. of Grand Island) about a year ago. They can make it rain whenever they want to with irrigation for all of their crops there! Their water level is so shallow there that they don't want basements! I understand they can irrigate for free except for the cost of pumping. I still would rather have plentiful natural rainfall! 

We have some of the best soil in the world in my county. Ogallala Aquifer is our lifeblood. However, it is expensive to run and install center pivot irrigation systems. Land values are extremely high north of town for irrigated crop land that can produce 300 bushel an acre corn. 

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

DEAF5194-15FB-4AD0-AAD5-FA2A81F3701C.thumb.png.646ccb59f1a3d8a38cffc1e01584bee6.png

Now why would Kansas, northern Oklahoma, some of Nebraska, and Texas remain in drought when the western slope of the Rockies is normal with good snowpack and the inter-mountain west/Sierras have plenty of snowpack? Considering the numerous winter atmospheric rivers driving straight out of the west-Do the Rockies create a  rain shadow? Or is it -IMHO- the weather modification efforts in the Colorado river basin. Is there some other accepted explanation?

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37 minutes ago, AquariusRadar said:

Now why would Kansas, northern Oklahoma, some of Nebraska, and Texas remain in drought when the western slope of the Rockies is normal with good snowpack and the inter-mountain west/Sierras have plenty of snowpack? Considering the numerous winter atmospheric rivers driving straight out of the west-Do the Rockies create a  rain shadow? Or is it -IMHO- the weather modification efforts in the Colorado river basin. Is there some other accepted explanation?

La Nina flash drought that was from the Cockroach Death Ridge in Summer 2022.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 74/41. Officially there was 0.16” of rain fall. And 22% of possible sunshine. Here at my house there was 0.37” of rain fall most of that fell in a thunderstorm just before 9PM. The overnight low so far here in MBY is 43.

For today the average H/L is 60/39 the record high of 84 was set in 1985 the record low of 22 was set in 1952. The record snow fall amount of 2.0” fell in 1924. Yesterdays high of 74 could be the warmest high for the rest of the month. This weekend looks to be very cool and the next week looks to be cooler than average.

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Well above normal temps for today and tomorrow before some thunderstorms arrive with a cold front tomorrow late afternoon into the evening. We could pick up as much as an inch of much needed rain with these storms. A turn to much cooler and well below normal temps looks to continue for much of the remainder of the month of April.
Records for today: High 90 (1976) / Low 24 (1928) / Rain 1.32" (1991)
image.png.819129d39fdcfa8a555aeb3539c335df.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Back home, there was another round of small hail that hit my neighborhood from the broken line of storms that track through last evening.  This is prob the 3rd or 4th time this season N IL got hit with hail.  I think there are a lot busy contractors replacing shingles, gutters and siding!

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18 hours ago, AquariusRadar said:

Can you expand on that...whats a flash drought? I take it the Cockroach Ridge was a big high pressure over the region.

Rapidly developing drought.

 

And yes, the Cockroach Death Ridge is the summer HP known as the "Heat Dome", but many Texans on my other weather forum call it the "Cockroach Death Ridge"

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Guest hawkstwelve

We've had on/off light to occasionally moderate snow falling most of the day but it hasn't amounted to anything besides a skiff on some surfaces. High of 40 which is 21 degrees below our average high for today. Brrrr!

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North Texas is headed for 53* tonight.  
Nippy for post Easter temps.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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