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April 2023 Observations and Disussion


Tom

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 49/33 There was a trace of snow fall and 54% of possible sunshine. That high of 49 was the 9th coldest high for any April 24th at GR.

Yes, there is snow on the roofs and tops of cars this morning. For only the 8th time since 1893 there was snow fall on April 25th in Grand Rapids history. The overnight low here in MBY was 30 before the clouds and snow moved in. A total of 0.06” of snow/rain was recorded here in MBY.

For today the average H/L at GR is 62/41 the record high of 86 was set in 1915 and the record low of 22 was set in 1967. The record snow fall amount of 3.0” fell in 1976. The next 5 days look to have a up and down pattern with some days near average and then falling back to well below average.

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Some areas of frost and even a few freezing temperatures in the lower spots of the county this morning. Below normal temps will continue through this last week of April. Some slight rain chances tomorrow night but rain will be likely by the weekend.
Records for today: High 93 (1915) / Low 28 (1922) / Rain 1.50" (1975)
image.png.900ed5cd1fb92de1dcfa1e5f26c19d1f.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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DFW temps will vary between 60-70 as we expect possible strong storms and possible hail.  
It’s been an odd Spring as weather bears down on you and little or nothing happen. Then it locks and loads and we get baseball size hail.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Man, what an ugly pattern for the GL's region...the blocked up pattern is not going away anytime soon.  That's one massive trough poised to target the eastern conus this coming weekend.  Digging deeper into that system, it appears there will be 3 or 4 different pieces of energy that combine into one MASSIVE trough over the E GL's/Ontario region.  Actually, check that, there are 5 total pieces...

1) The "leftovers" energy/trough from this past weekend spinning over Ontario

2) The TX Panhandle Hook

3) Saskatchewan Clipper 

4) Alberta Clipper 

5) The last piece dives due South from Alaska/NW Territorries of Canada. 

That is freakin' amazing!

 

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It has been quite an active Severe Wx season for the Easter ag Belt, right where the LRC has been targeting the Long Standing wave train.

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Meantime, the HEAT is ON for this weekend in the SW...

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We got down to 24º Monday morning.  I covered some shrubs/vines last weekend and just left the sheets on for a few days.  I'll have to re-cover again tonight.

The weekend rain system, instead of cutting off over Iowa, will instead dive way down into the southern plains.  We will just get windy and cold again early next week as a powerful system wraps up over the northern lakes.  ☹️

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

We got down to 24º Monday morning.  I covered some shrubs/vines last weekend and just left the sheets on for a few days.  I'll have to re-cover again tonight.

The weekend rain system, instead of cutting off over Iowa, will instead dive way down into the southern plains.  We will just get windy and cold again early next week as a powerful system wraps up over the northern lakes.  ☹️

I know, it just sucks! Now basically no rainfall expected in the next 7 days at least, and mostly cool. Oh well, at least it's not really dry yet.

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10 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

It's literally 48 at my house with .25 inch of rain, I may get up to 5-7 inches in total. The WPC QPF keeps increasing!

Enjoy the rain. Texas is still waiting for the GOM to gear up and start sending moisture.  
60 and overcast. Nice really.  
May get rain later tonight.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 4/19/2023 at 9:47 PM, Sparky said:

Yeah the Davis stations say that for rain rates at 0.30" or above, or at least mine does. 😃 

Is it calm there or don't you have an anemometer? Mine rarely shows calm as it turns in the slightest breeze.

Actually, I see the wind direction was really variable there recently and it probably happened to be calm when you took the photo. 

Mine doesn't pick up wind that well due to location. I have it in the best spot in the yard but there are still a lot of trees around the area. So thats the only bummer with it. 

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59 and scattered strong storms.   
I’m one of the lucky ones. Thundering to the west with a strong cell moving in.  
More chances tomorrow.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 49/32 There was a total of 0.16” of precipitation of that 0.2” was snow fall. That 0.2” of snow is the 3rd most for any April 25th at Grand Rapids. There was 54% of possible sunshine. It now looks like April will end up much closer to average than it looks earlier in the month.

The average H/L for today is 62/41 the record high of 88 was set in 1915 and the record low of 24 was set in 1907. The record snow fall is just a trace last set last year. The overnight low here at MBY was 27 and that is the current temperature. The low so far at GRR is a warmer 31.

 Here are the current April means across southern Lower Michigan. Grand Rapids 49.7, Lansing 50.5, Muskegon 49.8, Holland 50.0, Detroit 50.6, Flint 49.3 and Saginaw 49.0. All locations are still above average for April.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 49/32 There was a total of 0.16” of precipitation of that 0.2” was snow fall. That 0.2” of snow is the 3rd most for any April 25th at Grand Rapids. There was 54% of possible sunshine. It now looks like April will end up much closer to average than it looks earlier in the month.

The average H/L for today is 62/41 the record high of 88 was set in 1915 and the record low of 24 was set in 1907. The record snow fall is just a trace last set last year. The overnight low here at MBY was 27 and that is the current temperature. The low so far at GRR is a warmer 31.

 Here are the current April means across southern Lower Michigan. Grand Rapids 49.7, Lansing 50.5, Muskegon 49.8, Holland 50.0, Detroit 50.6, Flint 49.3 and Saginaw 49.0. All locations are still above average for April.

Yesterday afternoon was a "warm" 49.   No wind, much nicer in the afternoon.  Golf league was much more pleasant than last tuesday.   Not looking forward to next tuesday.    

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On my drive to school this morning, I was amazed at how few trees have budded out.  Most trees still have nothing.  Grass is green in most yards, but not thick by any means.  The very cold weather and lack of moisture I'm sure is to blame.  It may be the middle of May or later until we have full leaves on all the trees.  This is the latest I can ever remember this much of a delayed spring.  Just have to hope for some moisture tomorrow night into Friday morning.

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 53/31. There was 94% of possible sunshine and no rain or snow fall. The overnight low here in MBY was a cold 28 and at the current time it is 29 and there is a good amount of frost here. The official low at GR looks to be a warmer 30. Even that 30 is the 4th coldest low for any April 27th at Grand Rapids.

For today the average H/L low is 62/42 the record high of 85 was set in 1990 and the record low of 27 was set in 1928. The record snow fall of 0.2” fell in 2004. The record rain fall amount of 1.90” fell in 1956. Last year the H/L was 47/30 so it was cold last year at this time also.

After a brief warm up with temperatures near average today and jus below average on Friday and Saturday there will be a return to colder temperatures. The first few days of May look to be very cold with highs just in the 40’s

 

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We have picked up 0.67" of rain since late yesterday afternoon. We are still running over an inch below normal for April and almost 5" below for the year. We have a good chance at many spots across the area seeing at least an inch of rain by the end of the upcoming weekend. Temperatures for the next 10 days look to remain well below normal for late April and early May.
Records for today: High 94 (1915) / Low 26 (1926) / Rain 1.92" (1913)
image.png.7700c1d9e9ff9980765e1694a18830aa.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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We are on the "Century Mark" watch...Sunday is the day the valley looks to officially hit the 100F mark.  Welcome to a Summer forecast for the valley...

Screen Shot 2023-04-27 at 5.52.36 AM.png

 

The same can't be said for those back home around the GL's this weekend into the opening days of MAY.  What a depressing pattern...yuck!  

@Andie Did you get any hail?  Looked like the line of storms may have just missed you the SW...

 

image.gif

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My County and specifically my town is now in the D4 Exceptional drought category. Haven't been in this territory since 2012; the only thing is this drought is far worse. We have been working on this thing for over a year. We are in dire need of rain and it's no where in site. Gonna go down with one of the driest April in history.......

FuuM3z4WAAEDl7I.jpg

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48 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

My County and specifically my town is now in the D4 Exceptional drought category. Haven't been in this territory since 2012; the only thing is this drought is far worse. We have been working on this thing for over a year. We are in dire need of rain and it's no where in site. Gonna go down with one of the driest April in history.......

FuuM3z4WAAEDl7I.jpg

It is a very bad situation going into another growing season.  This is now 2 years in a row.  Maybe a little rain tonight, but then the forecast is for more wind and red flag conditions.  We have to hope that the coming El Nino will help us out, but it is going to take time to get rid of this drought.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

We are on the "Century Mark" watch...Sunday is the day the valley looks to officially hit the 100F mark.  Welcome to a Summer forecast for the valley...

Screen Shot 2023-04-27 at 5.52.36 AM.png

 

The same can't be said for those back home around the GL's this weekend into the opening days of MAY.  What a depressing pattern...yuck!  

@Andie Did you get any hail?  Looked like the line of storms may have just missed you the SW...

 

image.gif

I was Very Lucky. .  
It formed near me but slid east and hammered those poor people.  Cattle and horses panicked, and anything exposed was battered.  
 

It’s  currently  59* and Humidity is 58% !  😄  Heavy Overcast and zero wind.
Reminds me of weather about a month earlier.  Very odd Spring.  C’mon GOM!! Wake up.  
I’m wondering if this will be a unique Summer?

Edit:   Video of Hail and Cow not so happy. 
https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/massive-hail-storm-hits-cow-and-pool-dublin-texas

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1.5-3" of rain fell across Tulsa the last 3 days. There were a few isolated storms, but pretty tame for this time of year with a winter-like feel out there.

 

Looks like another storm tomorrow afternoon into Saturday that could bring another decent soaking. It's nice to see after almost a month of dry weather. No sign of meaningful severe weather here anytime soon. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

We are on the "Century Mark" watch...Sunday is the day the valley looks to officially hit the 100F mark.  Welcome to a Summer forecast for the valley...

Screen Shot 2023-04-27 at 5.52.36 AM.png

 

The same can't be said for those back home around the GL's this weekend into the opening days of MAY.  What a depressing pattern...yuck!  

@Andie Did you get any hail?  Looked like the line of storms may have just missed you the SW...

 

image.gif

It's pretty nice in my part of the Midwest though. Lots of sunshine with chilly nights. Shirtsleeve wx currently @ 68⁰. Lovely outside! 🌞

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52 minutes ago, Sparky said:

It's pretty nice in my part of the Midwest though. Lots of sunshine with chilly nights. Shirtsleeve wx currently @ 68⁰. Lovely outside! 🌞

That's about what I would expect to see in late April, still cool enough for a hoodie in the morning and evening, maybe a fire at night?  As long as the sun is out and not cloudy/gloomy every day I'm ok with it.

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Round 2 of severe weather tomorrow. Should hit between mid afternoon and mid evening.  
High of 80*.  That will really energize these storms.   

Honey!!! Bring in the cow for Pete’s sake !!!

F30CCA69-B94B-4243-A14E-3A351DB3047F.jpeg

7ACDAB63-EA48-4D0A-83BE-53892EC5467F.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday was a very nice late April day with the official H/L of 64/29 there was no rain/snow. The overnight low here in MBY was 41 and at the current time it is 45 and cloudy. For today the average H/L is 63/42 The record high of 83 was set in 1901 and the record low of 24 was set in 1945. Snow fall is becoming rare now and the record amount of 0.9” fell in 1961. The record rain fall of 1.45” fell in 2020. Last year was cold at the end of April with the H/L of 54/28.

We just can not get rid of the mention of snow as there is a chance of snow late Sunday into Monday. Remember Monday is the start of May. Temperatures could be as much as -20 below average on Monday and Tuesday for a very cold start to May. And the expected big warm up could bring temperatures up to average.

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Ended up with a whopping 0.20" last night.  I guess it was something, but again was less than forecasted.  Ag. Weather forecaster Eric Snodgrass is pointing out that about a week from now the pattern may flip to a much warmer and stormier pattern, that might start bringing more moisture back to the Central Plains.  Always have to have hope.

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Severe weather warnings after 3pm.  Virtually the same track as a day ago.  
 
Large hail/damaging winds.  Let’s hope it strikes east like it did before.  

 

5C924B64-979E-41AC-A7B6-1B90B63039ED.png

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It looks like a pretty wet weekend is on the way for the area. Rain should spread from southwest to northeast across the county this morning and continue pretty heavy into tomorrow morning. It looks like over an inch of rain is likely for much of the county with this 1st round of rain (see below). A 2nd round of rain looks to move in by Sunday morning with a chance of another 1" plus of rain. All of this represents some much needed rain for the local farmers and all of our lawns! Temperatures will continue to run well below normal through at least the next week as we roll into the first week of May.

image.thumb.png.bbd3bc9b02438f58654fd410af5ae1a0.png

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Ended up with a whopping 0.20" last night.  I guess it was something, but again was less than forecasted.  Ag. Weather forecaster Eric Snodgrass is pointing out about a week for the pattern to flip to a much warmer and stormier pattern, that might start bringing more moisture back to the Central Plains.  Always have to have hope.

He's got it dialed in as it mirrors what I'm thinking as well...as you very well know, summer rain patterns are hit or miss, but the pattern turns. very active as troughs exit the Rockies and develop in the Plains once we flip into May.  That pesky troughy pattern over the GL's will pay dividends for your region.

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

He's got it dialed in as it mirrors what I'm thinking as well...as you very well know, summer rain patterns are hit or miss, but the pattern turns. very active as troughs exit the Rockies and develop in the Plains once we flip into May.  That pesky troughy pattern over the GL's will pay dividends for your region.

You are correct, we get our best moisture and storms in the late spring and summer as complexes roll off of the high plains of Wyoming and Colorado and march east.  If a low level jet is in place, we can get a lot of rainfall.  

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This morning I spent some time reviewing the LRC and studying my notes from way back in OCT when it all began to develop.  The pattern we are experience right now is vividly expressed in my notes from Jan 19th-21st...this is what I wrote:

1/19 - 1/23: On the 19th, a trough tracks into PAC NW and dives south through UT into the 4 corners region on the 20th.  4-15” of SN in AZ/NM/CO, 3-7” Flagstaff, 4-11”.  On the 21st, SLP forms near the TX PanHandle and tracks thru OK, 2nd SLP forms near LA/Gulf Coast and takes over late on 21st into the 22nd that tracks up the EC.  WSW’s issued over CO/KS as a band of Heavy Snow falls over CO into W/C KS 4-11”.  Comma Head tracks over CO/KS, weakens into the 22nd but produces a wave of -SN in KC/N MO/IL/IN/S MI/OH that lays down  3-7” KS/N MO, 1-4” SE IA/N IL/S MI.  On the 22nd, ORD: Reports 1.5” of SN.  On the 23rd, EC SLP wraps up and produces a swath of OH/PA/NY/ME. 3-6” OH, 1-4” PA, 4-17” NY/VT/NH/MA/ME.  ORD: Reports Trace of Snow.

 

 This is the forecast for tomorrow...there is that GOM SLP that my notes suggest!  Incredible...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_5.png

 

Farther examination in the days prior, we had a powerful storm that tracked into the TX Panhandle and produced a Trowal like feature on radar.  Back on Jan 18th/19th, a Major Winter Storm developed and hit TX/OK just like this one did...pretty freakin' cool!

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=50&interval=15&year=2023&month=4&day=26&hour=5&minute=30

On a side note, I'm using the LRC and some pattern recognition techniques today to predict when the 1st 110F day of the year happens at Sky Harbor.  Here's a clue...when our Nation celebrates our Freedom that our Congress initially declared, but not signed!

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Currently some  very ugly action Near Waco.  Baseball (or a bit larger) hail.  
Only other action a this hour is in the Panhandle. 71* in DFW. 
 

9D7C19C9-C183-418B-B60C-5DAD40FE0A11.jpeg
 

3:20. Tornado on the ground near Ft Hood.  Developed fast. 
Moving toward Temple/Belton.  That’s one big black cloud. 
4:15 The cold air is moving faster than the warm right over me and the intensity is dropping here while Dallas got a storm with hail. So interesting to watch the atmosphere change in front of your eyes intensifying between Dallas and Ft Worth.  
I dodged the hail bullet. Whew!

Hill Country caught it this time.  
High of 80 today. Low 50. 
Tomorrow’s High 68.  Low of 50  This isn’t normal.  No way.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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