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April 2023 Observations and Disussion


Tom

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Good morning! Yesterday was another nice mild mid April day with a H/L of 72/51 there was no rain fall and with a lot of high clouds there was 59% of sunshine. So far the overnight low here in MBY is several degrees cooler than the official reading at GRR. My low and current reading is 55 while at GRR is 60. For today the average H/L is 56/36 the record high of 82 was set in 1997 and the record low of 19 was set in 1939 and 1950.

The next 4 days look to be much warmer than average with highs in the upper 70’s and there may even be a 80 or so. It will be windy so the western areas near Lake Michigan may be cooler than areas to the east.

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9 hours ago, Clinton said:

Strong and chilly storm showing up for the weekend.  Oklahoma and North Texas could see some strong storms.

May be an image of text that says 'FRIDAY DRYLINE SETUP ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE IF SUPERCELLS FIRE 7582'

Hope we get plenty of rain from this.   Very much in need.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We had a record high minimum temperature this AM of just 58.8 degrees breaking the old record of 58.7 set back in 2017. We should approach 80 degrees especially in the lower spots of Chester County today. This will still be well below the record for today but almost 20 degrees above normal for the date. Dry and warm weather through Friday with showers this weekend followed by a return to near normal April temperatures next week and for an extended stretch of days.
Records for today: High 87 (1990) / Low 20 (1975) / Rain 1.95" (1933) / Snow 1" (1894)
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DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  We ensure there is no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the trained NWS observers and spotters.  

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

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23 hours ago, Andie said:

I really enjoy these Spring mornings when the cool and warm air is layered and we get a bit of “atmospheric frosting” on our day.  
Were at 49. On our way to 74. 

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I've been seeing ground fog the last few mornings near empty fields and creeks around the area. That looks like a golf course, so probably lots of water available to form some patchy fog! 

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Well it is likely we are finished with any snow this season here in Chester County PA. This season ended up being our 3rd least snowy winter since records began back in 1888. Below are the top 20 least and most snowy winters. Note that 6 of our snowiest seasons have occurred since 2000 - while only 4 of our least snowy seasons have taken place since 2000.

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DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  We ensure there is no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the trained NWS observers and spotters.  

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

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PHX set a new record high of 99F yesterday, surpassing the record by 1 degree (98F).  I felt every bit of the Heat yesterday and we are beginning our "cool" off as they say out here...down into the low 90's!  LOL, however, I see highs for Thu & Fri will be near 80F so it'll feel like Spring again.  The pattern looks to warm up over the weekend as a SW ridge grows and temps rise into the 90's.

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19 hours ago, Clinton said:

Strong and chilly storm showing up for the weekend.  Oklahoma and North Texas could see some strong storms.

May be an image of text that says 'FRIDAY DRYLINE SETUP ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE IF SUPERCELLS FIRE 7582'

Uh oh

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Yesterday was a very warm day with an official H/L at Grand Rapids of 77/59 There was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. So far the overnight low here in MBY is the current temperature of 53. At GRR the low so far has been a warmer 58. For today the average H/L is 57/36 the record high of 80 was set in 1941 the record low of 16 was set in 1957.  The record snow fall of 2.8” fell in 1962. Last year the H/L was 67/48 and there was 0.73” of rain fall. The record high for today could be challenged.

It was a very warm day all across the state yesterday, there were many reports of highs in the 80’s. The one of the warmest in lower Michigan was at Traverse City with a high of 83. With down slopping TC can get very warm. Even in the UP it was very warm with the high for the state set at Menominee with a reported high of 86 the coldest high for the start was also in the UP at Manistique with a high of 51.

It looks to continue very warm through Saturday before turning much colder for Monday and there is snow in the forecast for Monday.

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Spring as Sprung in KC. Trees are fully bloomed and the grass is beautiful green. Had some nice rains on Monday around town, overall, April has been off to a dryer start so far but has been good for getting work done outside. 

Long range data has some possible "cold" days in there with some possible light freezes....

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60*. High of 80* today.  
Friday will bring us a chance at a strong afternoon storm.  
The weekend looks stellar with upper 70’s. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We set another record low maximum this morning with a low of only 61.2 - breaking the old record of 59.4 set in 2019. Today will be the warmest day of the week as temps could approach near record levels this PM. A little cooler but still over 80 degrees tomorrow before we start a cool down over the weekend along with the chance of some much needed showers.
Records for today: High 86 (1977) / Low 21 (1975) / Rain 2.40"
image.png.3641d66048708eed7b9e2235b59cc139.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  We ensure there is no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the trained NWS observers and spotters.  

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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MSP set a record high yesterday. I love it. Been much welcomed after the long winter. So many ppl out walking and soaking it in. There are a few scattered piles of snow and the lakes still have a bit of ice on em. 80s again today and tomorrow. 

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6 minutes ago, james1976 said:

MSP set a record high yesterday. I love it. Been much welcomed after the long winter. So many ppl out walking and soaking it in. There are a few scattered piles of snow and the lakes still have a bit of ice on em. 80s again today and tomorrow. 

The Upper MW was definitely feeling the summer warmth...

4-12-23 Upper MW_MW Record High Temps.webp

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This weekend is looking more interesting.  Models are trending slower and stronger.  We can certainly use the precip.  We've had an active pattern over the last six weeks, but only 1.77" of precip has fallen.

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LOL

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS and Euro both have Sunday's highs in the upper 30s around here.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

This weekend is looking more interesting.  Models are trending slower and stronger.  We can certainly use the precip.  We've had an active pattern over the last six weeks, but only 1.77" of precip has fallen.

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LOL

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Yes I noticed models were trending wetter which I'm very happy to see! It's actually kind of dry and we need a good rain! Hoping for some decent storms Saturday evening if the front doesn't slow down to much.

And next week's system looks decent as well.

I love spring when everything starts growing again. I wouldn't want to miss it since it's my favorite season! 

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New record highs were set yesterday at Lansing with 83. And 77 at Muskegon. At Grand Rapids the record was tied with 80. The official overnight lows were also in the top 3 and all locations. Records could also be set once again today as the forecast is for highs in the low 80’s the records for today are 80 at Grand Rapids, 83 at Lansing, 76 at Muskegon. Holland looks to be safe with their record high of 85 reported in 1941.

The record high was tied at Grand Rapids yesterday with the official H/L of 80/56. There was 99% of possible sunshine. The overnight low so far this morning is a little cooler than in the past couple of days and now set at 44 here in MBT with a dew point of 37. As has been the case it is warmer at GRR with a current reading of 49. For today the record high of 80 was set in 1974 and again in 2006 The record low of 21 was set in 1943 and 1953.

Today has been a rather snowy day in the last 10 years with the record snow fall amount of 4” falling in 2019 there was also 1.4” in 2014 and 1” in 2020.

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Yesterday was our warmest day since the 84.3 degree reading back on September 4th. We should be a couple degrees cooler today with clouds increasing later. Some showers toward morning tomorrow ending by late Saturday night. Some spots could see 0.25" to 0.50" of much needed rain for the county farmers and green thumbs!
Records for today: High 88 (1941) / Low 22 (1940) / Rain 2.28" (1970) / Snow 2.5" (1923)
image.png.839601325ee79fa9d22bc3c8c86caff8.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  We ensure there is no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the trained NWS observers and spotters.  

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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ORD set a new record high of 83F yesterday and heading back into the low 80's today and tomorrow, however, the "Taste of Summer" will come to a cruel end this weekend and snow flakes will be flying.  Looking farther, the models have a cruel joke for parts of the Sub as we approach the Spring Equinox.  

0z EPS...nature always seems to find a way to block up the atmosphere when the Jet slows down in the Spring months.  Doesn't it seem like that has been the way things go in recent years?  

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Mid-April SNOW?  

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Spring Equinox Big Dog for the Upper MW???  Maybe.  If the powerful trough exits the N Rockies and slows down, cuts NW and taps into the cold air this one could be a phenomenal late April storm.  Got my eyes on this one.

 

image.png

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Looks like El Niño watch is on.  
Conditions are setting up for a return after a long La Niña period.  

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/april-2023-enso-update-el-niño-watch 

202BD38E-EABA-4909-98DE-78BB1939FC70.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I noticed that our local channel 6 weather team over in Philadelphia has been posting how since 1970 springs are getting warmer....as is always the case they only seem to look at since 1970. Why is that a problem? A quick look (see below) at the 3 major NWS COOP sites here in Chester County PA show that by starting the analysis in 1970 the data is clearly skewed because overall the 1960's was the decade with the coolest readings. The warmest springs here in Chester County averaged over the 3 long term sites actually occurred back in the 1940's. Only focusing on 50 years does not prove a trend.

image.thumb.png.3d69166dc1b7545c5e4e413ddd362b8c.png

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DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  We ensure there is no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the trained NWS observers and spotters.  

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Seems the watch is on, Hoosier. They’re only at a 62% chance. (Interesting choice of percentages).   Perhaps as summer rolls along the prognosticators will feel more confident.  Something to watch over a dull Texas summer   

 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Many record high temperatures. Record highs were set yesterday all across southern Lower Michigan. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 83/48 there was 97% of possible sunshine. That 83 is a new record for the day. Other records set 85 at Lansing, 82 at Muskegon, No record but it was also 82 at Holland the record there is 85 set in 1941. Other records across Michigan. 82 Detroit and Flint, 83 Saginaw, 82 Houghton Lake, 86 Traverse City and in the UP 78 at Ironwood.

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Models are trending north and east with the heavier precip from this system as it really wraps up once it gets to Wisconsin.  Most models had been showing 1-3" of precip across my area.  Some are down to less than a half inch.

The long-range pattern could be pretty dreadful.  The latest Euro blocks it up and keeps the area in the 40s and 50s through ten days, with multiple hard freezes possible.  Yuck!  All my plants will have to come back inside and budding shrubs will have to be covered.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, westMJim said:

Many record high temperatures. Record highs were set yesterday all across southern Lower Michigan. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 83/48 there was 97% of possible sunshine. That 83 is a new record for the day. Other records set 85 at Lansing, 82 at Muskegon, No record but it was also 82 at Holland the record there is 85 set in 1941. Other records across Michigan. 82 Detroit and Flint, 83 Saginaw, 82 Houghton Lake, 86 Traverse City and in the UP 78 at Ironwood.

The entire East Coast also baked in the early summer heat...NYC hit 91F!

 

http://coolwx.com/record/movies/usa.movieday.gif

 

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0z Euro....Back to Winter in the Upper MW!  As we approach the Spring Equinox, a bonafide high-lat blocking pattern evolves coupled with a slow-moving system that slides east off the Rockies into the Upper MW/MW region.  Plenty of cold air to tap and plenty of moisture will be available for the ag belt.  Just not the kinda moisture those up north would like to see!  

System #1...

Euro...

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0z GFS..

 

2.png

Total snow from both storms...

3.png

 

 

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Assuming we don't fall below 61.7 by midnight we recorded another record daily high min temp this AM. Old record was 59 from 2002. A tough forecast for today regarding the chances for some much needed rain. Some spots could see over an inch of rain while others get less than 0.10". Hoping your backyard sees some rain! Looks to continue mild before a cool down early this week then a warming trend mid-week before we start a stretch of predominantly below normal temperatures to close out the month of April.
Records for today: High 86 (1967) / Low 24 (1981) / Rain 1.71" (1925)
image.png.f92dea30f9260cbabd756b958be8c76a.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  We ensure there is no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the trained NWS observers and spotters.  

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Two days after hitting 89 we now have moderate wet snow falling with a temp of 36. Pretty crazy.

You had snow covered ground not too long ago! Temperature extremes are higher in the plains! It never got above 82° here so far. 

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15 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models are trending north and east with the heavier precip from this system as it really wraps up once it gets to Wisconsin.  Most models had been showing 1-3" of precip across my area.  Some are down to less than a half inch.

The long-range pattern could be pretty dreadful.  The latest Euro blocks it up and keeps the area in the 40s and 50s through ten days, with multiple hard freezes possible.  Yuck!  All my plants will have to come back inside and budding shrubs will have to be covered.

Rainfall still could be decent and next week's system looks great as of now. Yeah the cold is going to suck. So long as it doesn't get colder than 30⁰ or so it should be okay here, but I planted some early hardier (except for beans) garden things a few days ago,so hopefully it doesn't last to long! 

I started a lot of plant cuttings indoors this year so I'm glad I held off on planting any of those outside. 

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Quite the rotating, tornado warned, hail producing supercell headed for St Louis area looks like! I saw on Twitter were they had 3" diameter hail somewhere in Missouri probably from that same storm! 

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1 hour ago, Sparky said:

Quite the rotating, tornado warned, hail producing supercell headed for St Louis area looks like! I saw on Twitter were they had 3" diameter hail somewhere in Missouri probably from that same storm! 

Yes and I’m here in downtown STL.  Went to the cards game this afternoon with the family and watching it roll in.

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Kind of got screwed here this evening rainfall wise. A heavy storm with occasional c/g lightning dropped probably nearly 1" of rain just east of here. Got a respectable quarter inch so far even here in the dryer hole, with rain continuing for now. 

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