July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

June ended a little above average. If you take just the average high it looks more impressive with +4.0 degrees at KLMT but the overall mean was fairly marginal at +1.2. 

 

Now onto the bulk of Summer. Everybody put in their July predictions. I'm going with either just a marginally above or a normal looking one. Maybe not like July 2016, I actually ended up a degree below that year.

[Tyler Mode]

June ended up 0.1 above average at my station.  1.8 degrees warmer on the highs, and 1.7 degrees cooler than average on the lows.

 

Precip was 1.81", thanks to the thunderstorms. 

[jcmcgaffey]

July is going to be hot and dry while August will be cooler and wetter. With the troughing and nw flow we have had lately it’s turn for the ridge to return for 4-6 weeks and then back to nw west flow in August.

[Blizzard777]

Storm line slipping just to the North at this point.

Brothers place is located just north of La Pine State Park.

My current view on a bike ride

[TT-SEA]

Kovacik has been producing some great AFD write-ups lately at NWS Seattle, especially considering it's the quieter Summer months.

 

I look forward to reading them when we get back to the action-filled Fall/Winter months.

 

 

How was the weekend trip?   Weather sure worked out great!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is much better for the 4th compared to its 00Z run.   

[HighlandExperience]

12Z GFS is much better for the 4th compared to its 00Z run.

How does July 3rd look? Especially the east slopes of the Cascades.

[TT-SEA]

How does July 3rd look? Especially the east slopes of the Cascades.

 

 

00Z ECMWF showed upper 70s and sunny over there on Wednesday... marine layer and low 70s over here.  

 

Usually our marine layer days are pretty windy over there... particularly just east of the Cascade crest.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cloudy morning and 58F in Downtown Springfield. S valley going to get some rain?

[TacomaWaWx]

64 after a low of 56 this morning. Headed out to lake cushman this afternoon hopefully the rain holds off until I’m back in Tacoma.

[Jesse]

Meant to post these over the weekend. Hiked Coffin Mountain near Detroit, OR on Saturday and the beargrass display was stunning. Had never seen a bloom this extensive before.

 

 

 

[HighlandExperience]

Great photos Jesse

[Jesse]

There were also thunderstorms brewing over this part of the Cascades on Saturday. Before this we hiked to Duffy Lake in the SW part of the Mount Jefferson wilderness and had a strong thunderstorm move overhead with frequent lightning and hail. It must have been even worse in other spots, since when we were driving to the Coffin Mountain trailhead later on there were deep “drifts” of large hail along the road.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meant to post these over the weekend. Hiked Coffin Mountain near Detroit, OR on Saturday and the beargrass display was stunning. Had never seen a bloom this extensive before.

 

377DA953-6C95-4D01-AF08-93C928BEA012.jpeg

 

1FC1BE05-F29F-4E3B-BBB8-5B19BA9254DD.jpeg

 

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Beautiful. I went up that way the previous weekend and noticed the beargrass bloom was quite profuse this year. Just went up and picnicked at Daly Lake that day. 

[jakeinthevalley]

Meant to post these over the weekend. Hiked Coffin Mountain near Detroit, OR on Saturday and the beargrass display was stunning. Had never seen a bloom this extensive before.

 

377DA953-6C95-4D01-AF08-93C928BEA012.jpeg

 

1FC1BE05-F29F-4E3B-BBB8-5B19BA9254DD.jpeg

 

67718D5F-285B-4F5D-A96F-E20B79C3DEE1.jpeg

Very nice. My daughter went up there last week and her pics were quite the same. We went up Stahlman Point yesterday (just outside Detroit) then went across to the "Phantom Bridge" just outside the Opal Creek Wildernaess. Still patches of snow at 4600'

 

The beargrass, paintbrush and lupine were all over the place up there. So many places to day hike in that area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

June ended up about 2-3F above average in the Willamette Valley, with generally well below normal precip. 

[Jesse]

June ended up about 2-3F above average in the Willamette Valley, with generally well below normal precip. 

 

Time for July to run hot and dry after all the troughing and NW flow we've had lately.

[Jesse]

Beautiful. I went up that way the previous weekend and noticed the beargrass bloom was quite profuse this year. Just went up and picnicked at Daly Lake that day. 

 

Thank you. Have never been to Daly Lake. I do know that there is a SNOTEL site up there, I keep running across the name in my research.

[Jesse]

Average high/low of 75/53 here for June. A couple degrees above average, mainly because of warm highs. 1.5" of precip.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thank you. Have never been to Daly Lake. I do know that there is a SNOTEL site up there, I keep running across the name in my research.

 

It is a nice little lake fairly close to the Pyramids. Just a couple hundred yards off the road, but never crowded. 

[Jesse]

Really could be a lot worse at this point. I like how the dome of heat keeps getting relegated to the long range. Fully expect July to end up warmer than average, but maybe not as crazy as recent years.

 

[Jesse]

It is a nice little lake fairly close to the Pyramids. Just a couple hundred yards off the road, but never crowded.

 

Will have to check it out. We hiked Middle Pyramid around this time three years ago. Beautiful place, but lots of new logging around. There is a checkerboard land ownership pattern north of Tombstone pass in the Old Cascades.

[jakeinthevalley]

Mid level moisture is working it's way from south to north. We'll see if there can be anything to come from it before the westerlies punch through later today.

[Deweydog]

Warmorning out there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Will have to check it out. We hiked Middle Pyramid around this time three years ago. Beautiful place, but lots of new logging around. There is a checkerboard land ownership pattern north of Tombstone pass in the Old Cascades.

 

We drove down to HWY 20 from Daly Lake and there were some really impressive logging operations going on. 

[Jesse]

Mid level moisture is working it's way from south to north. We'll see if there can be anything to come from it before the westerlies punch through later today.

Sometimes a marine push can work as a trigger for convection.

[jakeinthevalley]

Sometimes a marine push can work as a trigger for convection.

My guess is that we would have to reach the low 80's in the valley today to really get some vertical motion primed. I am afraid the westerlies will be too deep and rapidly stabilize the mid levels. Of course I could be wrong, but I am not sold on elevated convection this evening

[jakeinthevalley]

BTW, I am not sure I would drive up to the closest trailhead to the Phantom Bridge again. I grew up driving some interesting logging roads and this one was a little hairy. It is very narrow and we had to move some rock fall out of the way to even get through. A few areas only allowed a couple feet passage on the downhill side with a 1000' drop into the drainage below.

 

I didn't push it, but there were some spots that I could tell my daughter was getting a bit nervous!!

[GobBluth]

Really could be a lot worse at this point. I like how the dome of heat keeps getting relegated to the long range. Fully expect July to end up warmer than average, but maybe not as crazy as recent years.

 

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The average high dips on the 6th and 10th are odd.

[Jesse]

The average high dips on the 6th and 10th are odd.

 

Probably just a statistical quirk.

[TT-SEA]

No change on the 12Z ECMWF for the 4th... still shows 76 or 77 in Seattle so possibly 80.

 

This run is a little warmer for Saturday and Sunday compared to the 00Z run.    Probably 74-77 each day from Friday - Sunday.

 

The only rain shown is on Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning... but the amounts on this run are way higher for many areas.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No change on the 12Z ECMWF for the 4th... still shows 76 or 77 in Seattle so possibly 80.

 

This run is a little warmer for Saturday and Sunday compared to the 00Z run.    Probably 74-77 each day from Friday - Sunday.

 

The only rain shown is on Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning... but the amounts on this run are way higher for many areas.

 

 

Would be nice to wet the whistle. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

PDX got up to 84. What a weekend and a way to end June.

Update: PDX made it up to 85 officially.

[Jesse]

Looks like our annual mid-July to mid-August perma-ridge starts locking in at hour 240 on the 12z Euro.

 

Very pleasant run before that though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like our annual mid-July to mid-August perma-ridge starts locking in at hour 240 on the 12z Euro.

 

Very pleasant run before that though.

 

As long as blocking sets up in the sweet spot in late December I will take it. 

[Omegaraptor]

Something like July 2016 would be nice. 2016 was a really good summer IMO. Warm but not a scorcher like 2014/5/7/8.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, but as you pointed out a few posts ago, the worst of the ridging keeps getting pushed back with each run.  I can live with constant ridging if it's always 10 days out in an infinitely receding mirage!

 

Also the latter part of the GFS ensemble has a drop off. So very possible we see a 2-4 day heat spike and then cool back off to normal. 

[Jesse]

Something like July 2016 would be nice. 2016 was a really good summer IMO. Warm but not a scorcher like 2014/5/7/8.

 

Just one of our warmest Augusts on record, was all. At least no long range GFS record breaking cold anxiety!

[Omegaraptor]

As long as blocking sets up in the sweet spot in late December I will take it.

 

Our last front or center loaded winter was 16-17. A bit of bad luck to get two backloaded winters in a row but I hope 2019-20 breaks the trend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our last front or center loaded winter was 16-17. A bit of bad luck to get two backloaded winters in a row but I hope 2019-20 breaks the trend.

 

December 2017 had below average temps.