July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

PDX got to 75 today, actually overperforming the forecast.

[Tenochtitlan]

I just felt a few drops of rain, and it's still in the low 70's. Pretty unusual!

[TacomaWaWx]

Currently down to 68 degrees after a high of 72. It very lightly rained from 3pm until about 20 minutes ago now we’ve started to get light rain “accumulating”.

[Omegaraptor]

Only 0.02" at Hillsboro so far.

[MossMan]

Still dry here and 72 currently after a high of 75.

[TT-SEA]

Still dry here and 72 currently after a high of 75.

 

 

I see you have your force field up and running again... working like a charm.   

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

JAWS 1 moving through. Despite a strengthening 4 Corners high. Don't get bitten.

[Cloud]

This is a rare summer storm rolling through that would typically look like October around here. Temps are still running warm though and I admit, I haven't been following the weather as closely this time of the year, so to see something like this on the satellite just now is very surprising.

[Tyler Mode]

Just doubled my monthly rainfall...0.02" now.  Very muggy out there.  67 and 85% humidity.

[Omegaraptor]

This is a rare summer storm rolling through that would typically look like October around here. Temps are still running warm though and I admit, I haven't been following the weather as closely this time of the year, so to see something like this on the satellite just now is very surprising.

 

One of the NWS Twitter pages said that we haven't seen a straight up Pacific storm in summer like this one since 2007. So yes, it is indeed unusual.

 

This might not be the only one, either. Summer just refuses to start this year.

[TT-SEA]

One of the NWS Twitter pages said that we haven't seen a straight up Pacific storm in summer like this one since 2007. So yes, it is indeed unusual.

 

Summer just refuses to start this year.

I remember that 2007 storm.

[TacomaWaWx]

Down to 67 as of 6pm with 0.02” of rain so far. Been light so far.

[Timmy Supercell]

It is sprinkling here but also hovering in the mid 70's and feels totally nice. On FB I got angry emotes for appreciating this rare summer event.

 

[Jesse]

Just doubled my monthly rainfall...0.02" now. Very muggy out there. 67 and 85% humidity.

You didn’t see any rain with the storms on 7/1? I got .75” then. I also had 0.08” rain Saturday morning.

[Dave]

[Omegaraptor]

Impossible to tell for sure at this point but I think it could definitely warm up in August and September. Maybe even last week of July, who knows. Too early to call this a cool summer overall, especially when June was warmer than average.

 

Also, back when Phil was making his summer predictions, he talked about how seeing a couple weeks of 2011-like weather over a typical summer is completely normal. Although the whole Pacific storm thing today is abnormal for sure, the cooler temperatures aren't exactly abnormal unless they persist for 3 more weeks.

 

Eventually the Alaska block is going to have to die down, and with it, a reshuffling of the atmospheric pattern. Heck, the ULL at 8-10 days out on the models might just go up into BC and not even hit us (Euro models have been entertaining this as a possibility but GFS doesn't agree). Let's see where the jet stream ends up.

[MossMan]

I see you have your force field up and running again... working like a charm.

 

I am definitely grateful for the Olympics currently!

Been outside with the dogs and kids enjoying the evening!

Actually looking at the radar...not so sure it is from the Olympics?

[Perturbed Member]

Looking at the IR Sat it looks like it could be mid winter

 

 

 

Some heftier precip rates arriving here now. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

You think the rural Willamette Valley/Coast Range will stay warmer overnight than the city of Portland?

 

Could you explain why? Maybe something to do with warm air density.

I have seen it many times where these areas get the southerly flow but not the heavier precip. Many times.

[Jesse]

Looking at the IR Sat it looks like it could be mid winter

 

 

 

Some heftier precip rates arriving here now.

We are in Washington County right now and it’s 63 and raining moderately. Lots of low clouds and mist too. Feels great. Hard to believe it’s almost mid-July.

[Perturbed Member]

We are in Washington County right now and it’s 63 and raining moderately. Lots of low clouds and mist too. Feels great. Hard to believe it’s almost mid-July.

 

I'm absolutely loving it! Just feels so refreshing after so many hot and bone dry summers. 

[The Swamp]

Left Chelan today at 1pm and it was 85 degrees with blazing sun but very humid.

 

Dropped down the pass towards Tims' place and RAIN.  Effing RAIN!

 

Sheesh!

[TT-SEA]

Left Chelan today at 1pm and it was 85 degrees with blazing sun but very humid.

 

Dropped down the pass towards Tims' place and RAIN. Effing RAIN!

 

Sheesh!

Barely been sprinkling here... no low clouds either.

[TacomaWaWx]

Today Feels like a tropical rain or something you would see in Hawaii. I remember being in Hilo Hawaii 5 years ago in 70 degree rain and it kind of feels like that today here. We’ve picked up 0.04” of rain so far here.

[ShawniganLake]

One of the NWS Twitter pages said that we haven't seen a straight up Pacific storm in summer like this one since 2007. So yes, it is indeed unusual.

 

This might not be the only one, either. Summer just refuses to start this year.

Not sure of their definition of summer. But the August windstorm a few years back was easily more impressive.

[High Desert Mat?]

Had a high of 81 today with most of the day in the upper 70’s. Very humid by our standards over here in the desert. At one point it was 80 degrees with a real feel of 99. Very humid for here. Regardless, I think we go into the next 12 or so days with below average temps here before the temps really climb. Ask any old timer here, he’ll tell you that too. He saw this 50 years ago haha.

[weather girl]

Thx Jesse and FS.  It's just such a weird pattern. I wanted to know what you guys were thinking.  I'll keep checking back as JUL winds down to see if summer comes in AUG this year.  

[Phil]

One of the NWS Twitter pages said that we haven't seen a straight up Pacific storm in summer like this one since 2007. So yes, it is indeed unusual.

 

This might not be the only one, either. Summer just refuses to start this year.

Intradecadal regime change ongoing. Goodbye 2013-18?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

High of 71F and 0.02" of rain today. Currently 63F at EUG and 65F in downtown Springfield.

[Phil]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Currently 60F with a 60F dewpoint and light rain here in Victoria.

[Phil]

Had a high of 81 today with most of the day in the upper 70’s. Very humid by our standards over here in the desert. At one point it was 80 degrees with a real feel of 99. Very humid for here. Regardless, I think we go into the next 12 or so days with below average temps here before the temps really climb. Ask any old timer here, he’ll tell you that too. He saw this 50 years ago haha.

Lol, that’s physically impossible. 80*F with 100% humidity (80*F dewpoint) gives you a heat index of 89*F.

[MossMan]

What a lovely dry/warm evening it has been!

[Omegaraptor]

Intradecadal regime change ongoing. Goodbye 2013-18?

 

How confident are you in a multiyear Niña appearing in the early 2020s?

 

First year Niñas are generally the best ones. 2000-01 was a subsequent year Niña, and it was a terrible winter for the PNW. 1998-99 was excellent though. Best snowpack year in recorded Cascade history bar none - and 2000-01 was among the worst in Cascade history.

[ShawniganLake]

How confident are you in a multiyear Niña appearing in the early 2020s?

 

First year Niñas are generally the best ones. 2000-01 was a subsequent year Niña, and it was a terrible winter for the PNW. 1998-99 was excellent though. Best snowpack year in recorded Cascade history bar none - and 2000-01 was among the worst in Cascade history.

2007/08. Or 2008/09. You get to choose.

[Omegaraptor]

2007/08. Or 2008/09. You get to choose.

 

I get that not all subsequent year Niñas are bad. There have been plenty of good second year ones. However, 00-01 was a third year one.

[BLI snowman]

How confident are you in a multiyear Niña appearing in the early 2020s?

 

First year Niñas are generally the best ones. 2000-01 was a subsequent year Niña, and it was a terrible winter for the PNW. 1998-99 was excellent though. Best snowpack year in recorded Cascade history bar none - and 2000-01 was among the worst in Cascade history.

 

1998-99 wasn't really excellent, unless you're talking about above 3500'. In the lowlands, it rained literally nonstop for 20 straight weeks aside from the one merciful five day stretch of arctic air.

[BLI snowman]

Just hit 0.25" on the day here. Nice puddles forming!!!!

[ShawniganLake]

I get that not all subsequent year Niñas are bad. There have been plenty of good second year ones. However, 00-01 was a third year one.

probably looking at a pretty small sample size if we are now looking at 3rd year Nina’s.

[Phil]

How confident are you in a multiyear Niña appearing in the early 2020s?

 

First year Niñas are generally the best ones. 2000-01 was a subsequent year Niña, and it was a terrible winter for the PNW. 1998-99 was excellent though. Best snowpack year in recorded Cascade history bar none - and 2000-01 was among the worst in Cascade history.

You’d take 2007/08 over 2008/09? I assume not.

 

First year Niñas tend to be more +QBO from 40-50mb which helps amplify the NPAC. But that wasn’t the case in the 200708-2008/09 period.

 

And yeah, I’m still confident there will be a heavy multiyear niña somewhere in the early 2020s (strongest niña will likely be 2021/22). There’s a chance 2020/21 could be a niño if one doesn’t establish by this autumn.