July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Massive changes on the 00z ensembles. Amazing how the potential for a big heat wave just died in two runs, and just 6 days out.

You sound sad. I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet. Probably will be some sort of rebound in future runs. Probably at very least a few days 90-95.

[Omegaraptor]

You sound sad. I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet. Probably will be some sort of rebound in future runs. Probably at very least a few days 90-95.

Not sad at all. Just thought it was pretty surprising for the models to make such a big change at 6 days out. We won’t get a heat wave most likely but we’ll definitely continue the trend of pleasant sunny summer weather.

 

If there’s anything I’m disappointed about it’s the downgrade of the August 2 storm. I thought that would be a cool and refreshing event to see in midsummer, but the ICON now just shows a little bit of morning drizzle for Portland and that’s it.

[Jesse]

Not sad at all. Just thought it was pretty surprising for the models to make such a big change at 6 days out. We won’t get a heat wave most likely but we’ll definitely continue the trend of pleasant sunny summer weather.

 

If there’s anything I’m disappointed about it’s the downgrade of the August 2 storm. I thought that would be a cool and refreshing event to see in midsummer, but the ICON now just shows a little bit of morning drizzle for Portland and that’s it.

Yeah time to put a fork in it now that I’ve seen this one ICON run.

[James Jones]

This summer has reminded me quite a bit of 2013 to this point. Consistently a touch warmer than normal but with very few days that are actually hot (hottest stretch that summer was back to back highs of 97/91 on 6/30 and 7/1). That year had 6 days of 90+ through July, this year has 5.

[Omegaraptor]

Yeah time to put a fork in it now that I’ve seen this one ICON run.

GFS has also downgraded the storm as well as the ICON. Precip predictions have been volatile, however, so it could easily come back as tacomawawx said.

[GHweatherChris]

It does for grown a** adults whose number of trips around the sun are literally all they have to be proud of.

Da fucck?

[TacomaWaWx]

Not sad at all. Just thought it was pretty surprising for the models to make such a big change at 6 days out. We won’t get a heat wave most likely but we’ll definitely continue the trend of pleasant sunny summer weather.

 

If there’s anything I’m disappointed about it’s the downgrade of the August 2 storm. I thought that would be a cool and refreshing event to see in midsummer, but the ICON now just shows a little bit of morning drizzle for Portland and that’s it.

August 2nd system could end up tracking where it was on the previous run. It’s been moving around run to run but it’ll be more clear in a couple days. It does look pretty decent for August 2nd in terms of rainfall if it verifies.

[Omegaraptor]

00z ECMWF is back on the heat wave train for some reason. Odd.

[GHweatherChris]

00z ECMWF is back on the heat wave train for some reason. Odd.

Bring it!!

[Phil]

[Phil]

Hard to believe that perma-vortex might actually be gone.

 

Like..gone for real instead of a head fake.

 

[Phil]

I keep expecting it to return because it’s been a semipermanent feature almost every summer since 2013 but it appear to be neutralized for the time being.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z ECMWF is back on the heat wave train for some reason. Odd.

Bring it!!

Let's go Team EURO!

[TT-SEA]

Odd set up this morning with low clouds from Eugene to Bellingham while the entire WA coast is in the sun.

[El_Nina]

This summer is the best in awhile for outdoor cannabis cultivation, too. It's actually been too hot the past several years. They don't grow as well above 90 degrees.

[TacomaWaWx]

Latest gfs run continues to show the low ending up landing on southern Vancouver island instead of WA/OR coast. Western WA just gets the tail end of some light rain. Still any rain is good rain I’ll take it. Currently 60 and cloudy after a low of 56.

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m headed over chinook pass this afternoon on the way to bumping lake, I’m interested to see if they have any snow left. I was there on June 16th last time this summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are way overdue for a regionally wet fall/winter. I can smell it on the wind!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice cool and cloudy morning in the south valley. 64F

 

We are way overdue for a regionally wet fall/winter. I can smell it on the wind!

 

You said wind...K eye 2 in 3-2-1...

[Omegaraptor]

We are way overdue for a regionally wet fall/winter. I can smell it on the wind!

The storm train was pretty good last year. Only problem was El Niño causing all the storms to end up in San Francisco’s backyard instead of the EUG-YVR corridor. Hopefully that is reversed this winter after two dry years in a row.

 

The CFS has been fairly consistent over the past couple weeks about a torching September followed by a warm and wet October for the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

Woke up to a little drizzle and thick low clouds... now its totally sunny.

[Jesse]

The CFS has been fairly consistent over the past couple weeks about a torching September followed by a warm and wet October for the PNW.

Sounds like a rancid pile of puke. Good thing the opposite of whatever the CFS shows usually verifies.

[Jesse]

Go king Euro!!!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF just skirts us with a little rain on Friday morning and then its sunny and 80 degrees again by that afternoon.

 

Weekend looks spectacular... warm and sunny with no marine layer at all.

[TT-SEA]

Next week looks perfect on the 12Z ECMWF as well.    

 

A little marine layer in the morning on a couple days... but highs generally either side of 80 in Seattle all week with lots of sun.

[Requiem]

Nice cool and cloudy morning in the south valley. 64F

 

 

You said wind...K eye 2 in 3-2-1...

Zero...

[TT-SEA]

Some summer bliss right here... and the only rain comes in the early morning hours on a weekday.   

 

[Jesse]

12z Euro totally collapsed on the heat wave idea, and the GFS ensembles are sold on that too. Good to see.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Even the Bend 10 day forecast is showing upper 80s to 90, cooling back down to low 80s after day 7. Not too bad at all.

[Omegaraptor]

According to Scott Sistek, neutral ENSO typically leads to long periods of rain and long periods of dry weather.

 

However, most windstorms and floods also happen in neutral years.

[Phil]

Leaving for Vancouver, BC now. Beautiful morning, some clouds during the forenoon hours but full sunshine now as we’re departing. Still feels weird to experience a legitimate diurnal temperature cycle during the summer months, instead of a slow 10 degree drop that’s instantly erased by 11AM.

 

Anyway, I have a bunch of videos that I’ll post this evening when we get to the hotel in BC. I’ll likely be out of cellphone range from the afternoon of the 31st thru the morning of the 4th so I’ll get them up before then, but I’ll log on during the fishing trip if I can find a WiFi signal.

[Requiem]

According to Scott Sistek, neutral ENSO typically leads to long periods of rain and long periods of dry weather.

 

However, most windstorms and floods also happen in neutral years.

 

[Cloud]

Actually going to be breezy with gust 30-35mph for Friday's system as it stands right now. Looking at a 1009mb low dropping into Vancouver Isl. 

It's meh by Northwest standards but certainly not meh for this time of year where we would typically see the driest weather. If this unfolds, in the past month we've seen a couple of systems that goes through that would be typically in the fall. 

 

https://twitter.com/ScottSKOMO/status/1156302989260230656?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[MossMan]

12z Euro totally collapsed on the heat wave idea, and the GFS ensembles are sold on that too. Good to see.

Hopefully we will have another possible heat wave pop up in the near future.

[Omegaraptor]

Hopefully we will have another possible heat wave pop up in the near future.

There will definitely be more for the heat fans this summer. We still have all of August and September (September is technically “meteorological fall” yeah yeah yeah but it’s warmer than June on the West Coast and that’s what matters). In addition, just about every long range prediction (NWS, CFS, CanSIPS, NMME) is going for a warmer than average September.

[Jesse]

EPS looks pretty similar to the operational Euro.

[Jesse]

There will definitely be more for the heat fans this summer. We still have all of August and September (September is technically “meteorological fall” yeah yeah yeah but it’s warmer than June on the West Coast and that’s what matters). In addition, just about every long range prediction (NWS, CFS, CanSIPS, NMME) is going for a warmer than average September.

Definitely due for a warmer than average late season since May and June were so cool.

[MossMan]

Definitely due for a warmer than average late season since May and June were so cool.

February and March were sure chilly.

[Phil]

According to Scott Sistek, neutral ENSO typically leads to long periods of rain and long periods of dry weather.

 

However, most windstorms and floods also happen in neutral years.

That’s a huge oversimplification of “neutral” ENSO though because the SST structure/forcing can be very different between two years with the exact same Niño 3.4 value.

 

For instance, neutral years with WPAC/cool EPAC structures tend to lean +PMM/+TNH in the low pass (and are more associated with +PDO eras, by consequence) while neutral years that are cool WPAC/warm EPAC will be associated with the opposing EOF structures. But of course this is a stagnant/time-independent analysis, so it’s not predictive of state evolution (IE: the evolution of this year’s stare, or any other year’s state, for that matter).

 

This doesn’t even take into account external forcings/changes to boundary conditions via solar and longer term resonances in the climate system (whether natural or anthropogenic).

[Jesse]

February and March were sure chilly.

Only cool months this year so far. 2/7.