July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Some very light showers about to move into the east Portland metro area. Hoping to see some thunderstorms later. Was nice to see the 12z Euro trend wetter for much of the region the next three days.

 

73 and clouding up a bit currently after a low of 58.

[Blizzard777]

Got a paddle in before we were chased off the river

Currently rumbling and enjoying the good life

[Phil]

Really could be a lot worse at this point. I like how the dome of heat keeps getting relegated to the long range. Fully expect July to end up warmer than average, but maybe not as crazy as recent years.

 

B6EFD5CE-08C0-4512-B681-9400E8D4D194.png

And it wasn’t long ago models had the pattern flipping to persistently warm right as we turned over the calandar to July. Now that’s been muted upon closing.

 

It was the other way around for most of the last six years.

[Jesse]

And it wasn’t long ago models had the pattern flipping to persistently warm right as we turned over the calandar to July. Now that’s been muted upon closing.

 

It was the other way around for most of the last six years.

Yeah. Hoping this is could be a lasting warm season shift but I am pretty gun shy. There have been multiple false starts the last several years, only to have the recurrent warm/dry regime rear its ugly head again and again.

[Phil]

Looks like our annual mid-July to mid-August perma-ridge starts locking in at hour 240 on the 12z Euro.

 

Very pleasant run before that though.

Eh..not a perma ridge, and it may end up flatter/more suppressed in reality, with more westerly flow @ 500mb over the PNW (in the relatively brief window that the 4CH is amped, timed to the CCKW/EPAC tropical activity).

 

Forcing returns to the EHEM/W-IPWP later this month, which argues in favor of transience.

[Jesse]

Only two 90+ days in the barrel so far at PDX moving into July. Counting today, that it the least to date at this point in the season since 2012 (warm seasons 2014 and 2013 also only had two as of 6/30, but both hit 90+ on 7/1).

[Phil]

Six FEET of hail? DaFuk?

 

https://abcnews.go.com/International/vehicles-buried-parts-mexico-slammed-feet-hail/story?id=64063699&cid=clicksource_4380645_null_card_hed

[Phil]

I presume flash flooding could have produced the majority of those hail drifts (if that’s what they were). Hard to believe that much hail fell at once.

[ShawniganLake]

75F and sunny for the Canada day festivities st Shawnigan Lake. Perfect for just about everyone. The lake looks a bit crowded if boating is your style though.

[Jesse]

Up to 77 here. Some nice cumulus building here and there, but most of the activity seems to be sticking to the Cascades at the moment. Hoping for something fun later this afternoon/evening.

[Phil]

The Pacific forcing affecting the pattern now (WP effects on the PNW still lagged at this time of year) will continue for another week before the EHEM component becomes more dominant. So accounting for structural lag, there is possibly a decipherable timeline.

 

Good reason to believe (given structure of AAM and seasonal wavetrain climo) the ridgy pattern depicted on the modeling will be transient and out of the picture sometime in late July.

 

[TT-SEA]

It was alright, thanks for asking. I ended up getting a 24-hour stomach flu on Saturday, so that was absolutely horrible. But Sunday I felt a little better and it was flat-out gorgeous that day so it ended up working out OK. 

 

Kiddo had a bunch of fun. The lake was still pretty cold but he and his cousins didn't seem to mind. Lots of skiers and tubers out. Wake-surfing is a huge thing on Ohop so there was a lot of that as well. 

 

 

That sucks.    At least the weather was perfect... it seemed pretty hopeless earlier last week.

 

Lake Samammish was really nice yesterday.    The water did not seem cold at all... water temp was probably in the low 70s but the air temp was warm so it felt great.   Ohop probably has more runoff from Rainier?

[Jesse]

Weird.

[Jesse]

Looks like a few cells firing over Washington County now.

[Timmy Supercell]

Seems to be particularly difficult for southern OR to get a good setup for convection this year.

 

I know it's only the first of July but some years here I'd already have at least a couple solid to almost severe kind of t'storms well before the fireworks.

[TT-SEA]

SEA at 81... RNT at 82 and BFI at 81.  

 

81 here as well.   Beautiful day.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Strong thunderstorm right now about to hit Hillsboro. I'm off this week for Independence Day so I won't be able to experience it unless it survives as it moves east.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Getting a pretty direct hit from this cell on the west side. Pretty frequent lightning. 

Just love the smell of summer rain and those rumbles!

[TT-SEA]

Yeah Ohop Creek feeds the south end of the lake, which is a branch off the Nisqually coming from Mt. Rainier. It gets fairly warm later in the summer, as it's not that deep of a lake, but it takes a little bit to get there.

 

We will be going back again at the end of this month and it will probably be much warmer by then.

 

 

Lake Sammamish is probably deeper... but its a warm lake.    

 

Lake Washington is at 70 now and Lake Sammamish is usually 3-4 degrees warmer.   

[Requiem]

Sky looks very ominous to the west...

[Requiem]

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/web_metroradar.jpg

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hillsboro getting clobbered right now.

 

[TT-SEA]

Hillsboro getting clobbered right now.

 

 

 

Its barely moving as well.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Sky looks very ominous to the west...

I hope this thunderstorm survives as it moves east.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Its barely moving as well.

Yeah, moving at a snail's pace.

[Guest Sounder]

Wouldn't be surprised if that thunderstorm near Hillsboro gets severe warned shortly. NWS just put out a special weather statement saying it's producing dime sized hail.

[Requiem]

https://twitter.com/evanbellKATU/status/1145843123106406400

[Jesse]

I hope this thunderstorm survives as it moves east.

It isn’t going to move east. The flow is generally out of the SSE right now.

 

Although there may be more development to the east.

[Jesse]

81 at PDX so far today. The last three days have really overachieved for warmth considering we are in a generally troughy pattern at 500mb. Of course this time of year surface details often drive the boat.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Requiem]

It is really ominous, lights are flickering and winds are gusty. This thing is pretty far away too, but I can swear the air is a lot more thick.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hwy 26 must be at a standstill right now.

[Requiem]

It's still holding together, huh. Seems like this is expanding quite a bit too.

[Jesse]

Just started raining big fat drops here. Could be stuff developing right on top of us. Sky looks pretty ominous to the west.

[Guest Sounder]

Just started raining big fat drops here. Could be stuff developing right on top of us. Sky looks pretty ominous to the west.

Yup, looks like a 50-55dbz cell just popped out of nowhere over N Portland, and some more to the NE in Vancouver. Fun day down there!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

A ton of lightning in Washington County.

 

[Requiem]

A ton of lighting in Washington County.

 

 

I love how it seems to expanding as time goes on.

[Omegaraptor]

How lovely. Missing me by 5 miles. Yippee.

[TT-SEA]

I love how it seems to expanding as time goes on.

 

 

Yeah... it expanded way east and is also a little farther west at the same time.

[Requiem]

How lovely. Missing me by 5 miles. Yippee.

 

More development on the west side. Didn't you get a crazy thunderstorm last week?   But I'm sure you'll get at least some thunder and rain, if not more.