July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

I appreciate your optimism, but I'll believe a cold and snowy winter when I see a cold and snowy winter. After two bad ones in a row, my expectations aren't high.

Didn’t you complain non-stop about the 5 weeks of inane arctic cold we had last winter?

[Omegaraptor]

Didn’t you complain non-stop about the 5 weeks of cold we had last winter?

 

Keyword snowy.

 

Feb 2019 was nothing but straight disappointment through and through. I was complaining because if it wasn't going to snow, it might as well just not be cold at all.

 

The highlight of that month locally was the 1.9" of rain that fell in one day on February 12.

[Jesse]

Keyword snowy.

 

Feb 2019 was nothing but straight disappointment through and through. I was complaining because if it wasn't going to snow, it might as well just not be cold at all.

Your opinion I guess. And as we all know those things are like omega blocks.

[Requiem]

I appreciate your optimism, but I'll believe a cold and snowy winter when I see a cold and snowy winter. After two bad ones in a row, my expectations aren't high.

 

OK, I understand your last criticism, but I have to say this one is a bit unfounded. Yes, last winter was horrible for us. It was a crappy winter for many on the westside, yes. But 2017-2018,  was not bad at all. We had a White Christmas and an ice storm, and then two snowstorms in February which dropped several inches on most of the city.

[TT-SEA]

I appreciate your optimism, but I'll believe a cold and snowy winter when I see a cold and snowy winter. After two bad ones in a row, my expectations aren't high.

 

 

Dude... last February and the first half of March was pretty much unprecedented for much of western WA in terms of snow and consistent cold.     And fairly historic to south of you as well.   That was just dumb luck for you... during a wicked cold pattern across most of the western US.     Nature delivered in an historic way for the PNW last winter.   Ask Kayla in Bozeman for her thoughts.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice thunderstorm back in early July 2008...

 

Several that year that were memorable. 05/24/2008, all 3 metro counties simultaneously under SVR warnings, plus minor flooding.

06/29/2008, nice lightning event, mammatus/crepuscular ray sunset I wished I could take pictures of (a couple months before my first camera).

07/03/2008 yeah that was a nice late night and early AM storm, shook my apartment at 2 in the morning.

08/16-17 2008, two nights/mornings back to back.

[Requiem]

I understand why Omegaraptor hated last winter. I hated it too, even though I understand that for many areas it was historic. My personal experience with last winter didn't entail anything exciting but disappointment, but overall it was an excellent winter regionally. Just not so much in Portland.

[MossMan]

Dude... last February and the first half of March was pretty much unprecedented for much of western WA in terms of snow and consistent cold.     And fairly historic to south of you as well.   That was just dumb luck for you... during a wicked cold pattern across most of the western US.     Nature delivered in an historic way for the PNW last winter.   Ask Kayla in Bozeman for her thoughts.  

There was no boating in February or March!

[Omegaraptor]

Dude... last February and the first half of March was pretty much unprecedented for much of western WA in terms of snow and consistent cold.     And fairly historic to south of you as well.   That was just dumb luck for you... during a wicked cold pattern across most of the western US.     Nature delivered in an historic way for the PNW last winter.   Ask Kayla in Bozeman for her thoughts.  

 

After Las Vegas got more snow than us last winter? I'm done with optimism. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised next winter, but odds are I probably won't be.

[TT-SEA]

After Las Vegas got more snow than us last winter? I'm done with optimism. 

 

 

Yeah... definitely sucks to miss out on that insane 6 weeks if snow and cold is your thing.   I get that.   But nature absolutely unloaded on the West.    It was not a dud.

[Jesse]

I understand why Omegaraptor hated last winter. I hated it too, even though I understand that for many areas it was historic. My personal experience with last winter didn't entail anything exciting but disappointment, but overall it was an excellent winter regionally. Just not so much in Portland.

Yeah but to say he has his doubts about next winter because Mother Nature didn’t deliver snow and cold last year is pretty silly, considering the historic cold pattern that locked into the western US last February/early March and brought snow to much of the region.

[Requiem]

Yeah but to say he has his doubts about next winter because Mother Nature didn’t deliver snow and cold last year is pretty silly, considering the historic cold pattern that locked into the western US last February/early March and brought snow to much of the region.

 

It is, but I get the emotion behind it. I'm not going to lie and say that it was pleasant seeing 15+ inches of snow fall fifty miles north and fifty miles south of us, but I do recognize that it's probably insanely rare to be so closely screwed in a winter.

[Omegaraptor]

We haven't had a wet winter since 16-17 either, even though for some reason Portland is stereotyped as a place where it rains all the time.

 

Sacramento has had more rain than us YTD. That's depressing.

[jakeinthevalley]

Good call. PDX got into the low 80s and that helped ignite the thunderstorms.

Watched the initial convection start from McMinnville earlier. Maybe 10 miles north. Only 75f there. Further south it was even cooler. Position of the low probably had more influence on the initiation than actual surface temperature as the mid level moisture was present throughout the valley.

 

The flow around the low acted as the trigger. Areas to the south were stabilized by the onshore flow.

[Dave]

Got plenty of both lightning bugs and frequent lightning. Currently 90 degrees, feels like 95.

[Requiem]

We haven't had a wet winter since 16-17 either, even though for some reason Portland is stereotyped as a place where it rains all the time.

 

Sacramento has had more rain than us YTD. That's depressing.

 

What is your favorite weather event? That you have ever experienced?

[Dave]

Lightning bugs is about 5/sec. Lightning flash is about 1 every 5 sec.

[Omegaraptor]

What is your favorite weather event? That you have ever experienced?

 

February 2014 arctic blast was pretty wonderful, as was 1/10/17.

 

I'll finally admit to being very young. I was five years old when December 2008 happened, so I don't remember that one all too well.

[Jesse]

February 2014 arctic blast was pretty wonderful, as was 1/10/17.

 

I'll finally admit to being very young. I was five years old when December 2008 happened, so I don't remember that one all too well.

Whoah. Even K12 is like a forum elder compared to you. This definitely clears things up a little.

[Requiem]

February 2014 arctic blast was pretty wonderful, as was 1/10/17.

 

I'll finally admit to being very young. I was five years old when December 2008 happened, so I don't remember that one all too well.

 

Wow, you're younger than me? Huh.

[Requiem]

One portion of our visitor this evening seems to be (maybe) re-intensifying over the Cascades. Already see heavier precipitation towards the core of the cell.

[Jesse]

[BLI snowman]

Whoah. Even K12 is like a forum elder compared to you. This definitely clears things up a little.

 

He seems to think 2016-17 was a long time ago, so it makes sense.

[Jesse]

3rd thunderstorm day in the last 7 here. Nice!

How did you do for rainfall? I ended up with about .75” here. Nice way to start the month.

 

0.54” at PDX which is nothing short of mind blowing.

[BLI snowman]

How did you do for rainfall? I ended up with about .75” here. Nice way to start the month.

 

Only a few hundredths. Rain let up even more just to my north.

[Jesse]

Only a few hundredths. Rain let up even more just to my north.

Yeah there appeared to be a pretty sharp cutoff up there. Hopefully more shower chances the next few days.

[Jesse]

That’s a thick marine layer covering the south and central Willamette valley this evening. Eugene only hit 66 today. We could end up pretty socked in tomorrow.

 

The pattern the last few weeks has felt so much more like the old school PNW summers I remember.

[Omegaraptor]

How did you do for rainfall? I ended up with about .75” here. Nice way to start the month.

0.54” at PDX which is nothing short of mind blowing.

PDX recorded fairly low numbers on 6/26 and 6/27. This got them back up on par with the rest of the metro area.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Love this cool summer day. Can we pls have these kind of cold anomalies in Dec-Jan.

[Omegaraptor]

 

NOAA July forecast. Let’s see if the warm and dry prediction for the PNW holds up. If Phil’s prediction about troughing later in the month is correct, then maybe it just has recency bias.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not quite but I lived on the west sides of the metro almost half my life. Hillsboro from 2004-2010 and lived in Bethany from 1999-2004.

 

Hillsboro/Forest Grove just had some nice storms and hail a little while ago.

Oh sweet, didn't know you lived up here. Bethany is a really good area to live.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Watched the initial convection start from McMinnville earlier. Maybe 10 miles north. Only 75f there. Further south it was even cooler. Position of the low probably had more influence on the initiation than actual surface temperature as the mid level moisture was present throughout the valley.

 

The flow around the low acted as the trigger. Areas to the south were stabilized by the onshore flow.

Thanks for the insight.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like PDX will finish with a 81/60 today. Good for a +4 departure on the day.

[Jesse]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Deweydog]

Been a warm July...

[Jesse]

My prediction was a heat wave sometime during the first half of the month.

Score?

[jakeinthevalley]

Areas to the east and north of the low center (as it approached the coast) were not under the influence of the stabilizing, westerly flow. The southerly and SE flow around the low tapped into the mid level moisture and triggered the convection over Washington county.

 

Just like many other extreme weather events west of the Cascades, the ingredients have to come together perfectly. Even then, the results are very localized. That is what makes forecasting in this region such a challenge, in every season.

[Front Ranger]

[Jesse]

Probably because some grown a** men on here act about the same.

He was never that bad...