OKwx2k4 Posted August 9, 2019 Report Share Posted August 9, 2019 I know. I get it. I've been coming here for a few years now. I just rarely post. And I love to read all the gung-ho winter forecasts. Every so often, I just like to see if someone will take the contrary view. If nothing else, it helps me learn. I'm far more of an amateur than many here.I've been drastically wrong in my state and points southeast of me for 2 winter seasons. I'm not self-preserving in the least, in regards to that. When I'm wrong I usually know it by January 1 and try to keep myself off here and from influencing opinion anymore if I miss. I still get sucked into the modeling, like everyone else. I hate that. I want snow. Shoot me. Lol. One handicap I have in my region, (call it excuse or explanation, whichever you choose) is that out of the last 15 winters, I've really only had about 3 to study for the cold side. I have to go backwards to data from the 60s-80s (pre-climactic shift) and sift out what happened. Satellite era is 1979-present so you get where the problem is there. Not excuses, just learning and growing in wisdom here just as we all are. That is what makes it a challenge and a ton of fun. Even if I fail. I want to admit it and do better. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2019 First hint at snow in the lower 48? Autumn...is...coming....early...btw, if you’ve been watching the week 2 forecasts off the GFS/GEFS, they have been better than the EPS this summer. Surely, the Euro is better within day 5, but the GFS somehow does better D 7-14 oddly enough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted August 9, 2019 Report Share Posted August 9, 2019 Autumn...is...coming....early...btw, if you’ve been watching the week 2 forecasts off the GFS/GEFS, they have been better than the EPS this summer. Surely, the Euro is better within day 5, but the GFS somehow does better D 7-14 oddly enough.Maybe the upgrade the GFS did is working Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 The latest NMME run is out and it is now agreeing with the CFSv2 that ENSO neutral conditions look more and more probable as we enter Autumn. I know the CPC gave its final El Nino advisory on 8/8 and mentioned ENSO neutral conditions are likely to prevail through Autumn/Winter. Best case scenario??? After seeing the usually warm biased NMME painting an area of normal across the majority of our Sub Forum, I'm becoming more convinced now as data is starting to back up my ideas of a fast start to Autumn. I've posted my reasoning a couple weeks ago, based on past experience, SST alignment across the N PAC and obviously what is transpiring right now up north in Canada. We are going to see more data come in this week from the Japanese agencies and I'm really curious what they show this week. I foresee a good, to great, probability of an enhanced "second severe wx season" as football season begins and strong troughs swing through our Sub. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 Over the years of "model watching", I don't think I've ever seen a 10-day snow map through the middle of August, painting this much snow up into the mountains of Alaska/NW Territories. Is this the year that people shake their heads and say, "what on earth is happening?" After seeing a very hot early/mid summer in Alaska, things are going to change abruptly to our neighbors up north. Based off all the data that is coming in off the majority of the models, I'm convinced Autumn is coming a month early. Something really peculiar is happening. In almost La-Nina like fashion, western Canada is cooling abnormally fast and I believe this is going to be the foundation and source region of early cold outbreaks. Snows are coming early, the cold is building early, the trends in the model world are backing up the ideas of ice/snow growing in Sept early and often during the month of Sept across Canada. 00z GEFS....I'm making a mental note of this temp anomaly come Sept-Oct...by the time we reach the heart of winter, boy oh boy, look out! I happened to notice that Tropical Tidbits now has snow weenie maps all the way out to 384hr...build that snow cover up across the N/NW portions of our continent early and often mother nature. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 Over the years of "model watching", I don't think I've ever seen a 10-day snow map through the middle of August, painting this much snow up into the mountains of Alaska/NW Territories. Is this the year that people shake their heads and say, "what on earth is happening?" After seeing a very hot early/mid summer in Alaska, things are going to change abruptly to our neighbors up north. Based off all the data that is coming in off the majority of the models, I'm convinced Autumn is coming a month early. Something really peculiar is happening. In almost La-Nina like fashion, western Canada is cooling abnormally fast and I believe this is going to be the foundation and source region of early cold outbreaks. Snows are coming early, the cold is building early, the trends in the model world are backing up the ideas of ice/snow growing in Sept early and often during the month of Sept across Canada. 00z GEFS....I'm making a mental note of this temp anomaly come Sept-Oct...by the time we reach the heart of winter, boy oh boy, look out! I happened to notice that Tropical Tidbits now has snow weenie maps all the way out to 384hr...build that snow cover up across the N/NW portions of our continent early and often mother nature. That's mid-September to early October weather for those folks.Same with this long fetch of NW flow mixed with storms I've been under down here. In terms of sensible weather, it's like mid-September. The temps are warmer, of course because of sun angle. They won't be for long. I'll add, the exposed water on that side of the arctic will absolutely help bury Canada in snow before fall even gets here. That's too cool. I've always read about this stuff. Fun to watch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 The latest NMME run is out and it is now agreeing with the CFSv2 that ENSO neutral conditions look more and more probable as we enter Autumn. I know the CPC gave its final El Nino advisory on 8/8 and mentioned ENSO neutral conditions are likely to prevail through Autumn/Winter. Best case scenario??? After seeing the usually warm biased NMME painting an area of normal across the majority of our Sub Forum, I'm becoming more convinced now as data is starting to back up my ideas of a fast start to Autumn. I've posted my reasoning a couple weeks ago, based on past experience, SST alignment across the N PAC and obviously what is transpiring right now up north in Canada. We are going to see more data come in this week from the Japanese agencies and I'm really curious what they show this week. I foresee a good, to great, probability of an enhanced "second severe wx season" as football season begins and strong troughs swing through our Sub. This is a good correction and directly in line with my September prognosis I wrote the other day. I expect at least one 4-7 day period with some very cool (cold) dry air and early frosts and freezes. It's not a wish cast for me this year. I worry about the corn harvest and soybeans as they are our #1 and #2 national crops, respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 11, 2019 Report Share Posted August 11, 2019 More on the corn from Agweb:""If they're six, seven, or eight million acres down on corn then that's 500 to 700 million bushels right off the carryout in one snap of the finger and that overshadows any demand cut," says Nellinger. "It's got the possibility for massive volatility on the 12th and to set the stage for further volatility all the way into harvest and this winter". Given his expectations for volatility, Nellinger says now is not the time to ignore the markets. "I think first and foremost, don't panic," says Nellinger. "We've seen a $.60 to almost $.70 break off the highs in corn and we've seen a fairly sizable break in beans". Nellinger says farmers should always go back to what they know. "Go back to what you think your yields are and what your crop insurance guarantee is and that'll help take some of the emotion out of this," says Nellinger. "Certainly though if we get rallies and some bullishness understand that there is a demand issue". https://www.agweb.com/article/perspective-monday-biggest-report-20-years I'll try to remember to check back in on it Monday afternoon. Should be interesting. If it comes down to weather at the end of the thing, the modeling is all pretty split right now in the 30-60 day range so I'm intrigued, to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 11, 2019 Taking a look at the Euro seasonal run for the Autumn months as a whole, doesn't it look very similar to last year??? Central CONUS trough?? Wet/cool across the Plains, inter-mountain west and SW??? SER??? Interesting... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 11, 2019 After reading some more material on the current state of the Strat, my understanding is that we are in fact descending into an easterly (-) QBO and the maps below clearly show this is happening. Interestingly, earlier this year there were predictions we would see a westerly (+) state of the QBO but the atmosphere has decided to take a turn. Is low solar the culprit? I'm not sure to be honest, but what I do know is that a -QBO does increase the probability of a cold winter across North America and the Lower 48. This is a big turn of events bc in the back of my mind I was inclined to think we would be enduring a +QBO which would only provide conflicting signals for a warmer winter. Needless to say, this only enhances our chances of a cold winter and at times, what I am starting to really lean towards, is another extreme Winter season. Like last year, my gut was telling me that we would have a wild season. I'm strongly leaning this way. This is not hype as some are inclined to believe, but only, my own research as I see more and more clues that counter any ideas of a warm or boring cold season. In all honesty, I do feel very confident at this early stage, something really amazing is happening across the globe and there will be some unprecedented events this cold season across the N Hemisphere, esp in North America. There will undoubtedly be heightened chances of multiple "Polar Vortex" intrusions and if the blocking pans out, look out for extreme cold to lock and hold. This is going to be a fascinating winter season of 2019-2020. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u30_nh.gif http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif You can monitor the state of the QBO here: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#uwind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 12, 2019 Report Share Posted August 12, 2019 After reading some more material on the current state of the Strat, my understanding is that we are in fact descending into an easterly (-) QBO and the maps below clearly show this is happening. Interestingly, earlier this year there were predictions we would see a westerly (+) state of the QBO but the atmosphere has decided to take a turn. Is low solar the culprit? I'm not sure to be honest, but what I do know is that a -QBO does increase the probability of a cold winter across North America and the Lower 48. This is a big turn of events bc in the back of my mind I was inclined to think we would be enduring a +QBO which would only provide conflicting signals for a warmer winter. Needless to say, this only enhances our chances of a cold winter and at times, what I am starting to really lean towards, is another extreme Winter season. Like last year, my gut was telling me that we would have a wild season. I'm strongly leaning this way. This is not hype as some are inclined to believe, but only, my own research as I see more and more clues that counter any ideas of a warm or boring cold season. In all honesty, I do feel very confident at this early stage, something really amazing is happening across the globe and there will be some unprecedented events this cold season across the N Hemisphere, esp in North America. There will undoubtedly be heightened chances of multiple "Polar Vortex" intrusions and if the blocking pans out, look out for extreme cold to lock and hold. This is going to be a fascinating winter season of 2019-2020. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u30_nh.gif http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif You can monitor the state of the QBO here: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#uwindSame time as the persistent -AO started. May 1. Pretty nice to see.I've read before that going post --qbo, or rising from max negative through the winter is ideal for an amazing winter. Need -NAO help, which I'm starting to see down the road. Rock on! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2019 Per the latest JMA seasonal run, it is practically lining up to a "T" what I had envisioned...cool/cold start, warm finish to Autumn??? In terms of the overall pattern as we approach Sept, a highly amplified pattern is poised to set up across N.A. The CFSv2 is also suggesting a similar look for the month of Sept and into Oct. Sept... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201908.D0900_gl0.png Temps... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201908.D0900_gl2.png Oct...one thing that stands out to me is the reversal of the current suppressed pattern across the GOM/Caribbean. Could spell trouble in the tropics as the new LRC develops. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201908.D0900_gl0.png Temps... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201908.D0900_gl2.png Nov...if indeed the Autumn does turn out cool/cold, it's inconceivable that we see another cooler month as nature almost always has to balance itself out. This may be the period where the pattern "reloads" and interesting things start happening in the Stratosphere. I'm looking for an early and abrupt SSW. This is just a gut feeling I have based on research I've done and I may be completely off. What happens in the Strat is a crap shoot anyway and predicting a forecast is almost impossible. Nonetheless, I like the look its showing for November as it suggest an "Indian Summer" finish to Autumn. That's a nasty signal for a SER across the Aleutian Islands.... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201908.D0900_gl0.png Temps... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201908.D0900_gl2.png 3-month SST mean certainly favoring an ENSO neutral to possible weak La Nina??? http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R90_1/Y201908.D0900_gls.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2019 Courtesy to Ben Noll, here are his snowfall anomaly maps off the ECMWF through January....quite an interesting look out of the SW...early snows in the Plains??? Boy, the Rockies are looking pretty for another banner year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 14, 2019 Report Share Posted August 14, 2019 More on the corn from Agweb:""If they're six, seven, or eight million acres down on corn then that's 500 to 700 million bushels right off the carryout in one snap of the finger and that overshadows any demand cut," says Nellinger. "It's got the possibility for massive volatility on the 12th and to set the stage for further volatility all the way into harvest and this winter". Given his expectations for volatility, Nellinger says now is not the time to ignore the markets. "I think first and foremost, don't panic," says Nellinger. "We've seen a $.60 to almost $.70 break off the highs in corn and we've seen a fairly sizable break in beans". Nellinger says farmers should always go back to what they know. "Go back to what you think your yields are and what your crop insurance guarantee is and that'll help take some of the emotion out of this," says Nellinger. "Certainly though if we get rallies and some bullishness understand that there is a demand issue". https://www.agweb.com/article/perspective-monday-biggest-report-20-years I'll try to remember to check back in on it Monday afternoon. Should be interesting. If it comes down to weather at the end of the thing, the modeling is all pretty split right now in the 30-60 day range so I'm intrigued, to say the least.I’m reading some very bad economics for farmers. Deep debt and many will be out of business unless government bails them out. It’s looking very bad. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2019 Taking a look at the Sea Ice Volume chart below, it certainly looks like we have turned the corner and plateaued as the Arctic has begun to cool off as Autumn begins to settle in up north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 15, 2019 Report Share Posted August 15, 2019 I guess this is a good start......... and way too early to predict, but always good to have an idea of what outlooks are looking like this time of the year as we approach September https://youtu.be/AJ3C18WvUXU Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 15, 2019 Report Share Posted August 15, 2019 Tom, I'll be honest. If those maps are correct and Pacific forcing doesn't shift back east, the west will be the only place that sees winter this year. That's the only agreement with the euro that I have right now, as well. Looks like crap year number 4 coming for me on paper. Early cold is looking sketchy as well unless its purely AO/NAO+GOM moisture feed. I'm just being as objective as I can. The Pacific is starting to look like an enemy more than a friend to the south central and east folks. I'm not being negative, just straight up honest. Time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 15, 2019 Report Share Posted August 15, 2019 I’m reading some very bad economics for farmers. Deep debt and many will be out of business unless government bails them out. It’s looking very bad.They're being misled, used and abandoned and the last thing they need is the government right now. It's sad. It's a no win situation. So, do we trust the USDA, who can't catch an e-coli outbreak that spreads the nation under their supervision, while they have inspectors everywhere or do we trust real people who are losing? I trust real people.If they make farmers dependent, they can control them. Just like the folks in the inner cities. It's sad. I know this isn't a political group, but it's a problem with the weather and many many other factors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 15, 2019 Tom, I'll be honest. If those maps are correct and Pacific forcing doesn't shift back east, the west will be the only place that sees winter this year. That's the only agreement with the euro that I have right now, as well. Looks like crap year number 4 coming for me on paper. Early cold is looking sketchy as well unless its purely AO/NAO+GOM moisture feed. I'm just being as objective as I can. The Pacific is starting to look like an enemy more than a friend to the south central and east folks. I'm not being negative, just straight up honest. Time will tell. I am also worried about the strength of the southern ridge heading into the cold season for you guys down south. Your going to really have to bank on the blocking this season I think. Still plenty of time to see how things shape up in Oct/Nov. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 15, 2019 Report Share Posted August 15, 2019 Well if I can get some cold and rain I may settle for just barely satisfied. Not sounding promising. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 16, 2019 Report Share Posted August 16, 2019 Well if I can get some cold and rain I may settle for just barely satisfied. Not sounding promising.You may fare better than I will. You and the Gulf coast had more snow than me last season. I think I really hate this place sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2019 Courtesy of Ben Noll, here is his maps via super blend (ECMWF + UKMET) for the Winter season...for our friends down south, the signal for a potentially suppressed jet due to high lat blocking is in the cards. Given what we have been experiencing of late, I'd put more weight into blocking this year than any other year in recent years. That is a very wet and potentially active STJ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 17, 2019 Report Share Posted August 17, 2019 Courtesy of Ben Noll, here is his maps via super blend (ECMWF + UKMET) for the Winter season...for our friends down south, the signal for a potentially suppressed jet due to high lat blocking is in the cards. Given what we have been experiencing of late, I'd put more weight into blocking this year than any other year in recent years. That is a very wet and potentially active STJ! Is that a polar phasing pattern?I really think it is... Almost forgot what that looked like on a map. If that verifies, I won't be worried about winter. Not at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 Nature is starting to align things up across the N PAC as the SST's are heading towards what the climate models have been predicting for a while now. Over the last 7 days, an active storm track has carved out a tongue of cooler waters coming out of East Asia as seen below. The predicted pattern over the next 2 weeks is to keep the storm train locked and steady which will likely continue to cool the waters south of the Aleutians. In my opinion, this will be a big part of the ever slowly developing LRC come late Sept as a dominant northern stream evolves early in the cold season. Aleutian Low??? I'm starting to believe strongly this Autumn will look very Nina (ish) and a lot like what last year served up. The one big difference I see is in the E PAC where there are very warm waters just west of Cali that weren't present last year. With that in mind, I'm anticipating to see a ridge off the west coast to be a semi permanent feature of the new LRC this Autumn. Meaning, this will likely aid in a dominant northern stream flow into the west coast that could enhance "inside runners" and allow storms to track into the central Rockies/4 corners. Depending on how far off the west coast this ridge develops will determine if Cali/SoCal/4 corners stay in the vicinity of the storm track that will in turn effect the central CONUS. Finally, we have the waters near Greenland...this is a text book signal for a -NAO this season. Since this Spring, models have continued to try and forecast a reversal (+NAO) in the longer range but has failed each and every time. Only brief (+ or neutral) periods have shown up over the past several months and then blocking locks in again. I expect this to be a common theme until sometime in Nov/Dec when I am expecting some interesting things evolve with the Polar Vortex. As I sit here in the middle of August, based off what I'm seeing in the data and what is now currently transpiring, I will say with confidence, Autumn is coming early and hard this year. I listened to JB's Sat Summary yesterday and he's predicting "endless summer". I will wholeheartedly disagree with him and firmly stand on my long standing prediction while countering the Euro models predicted warmth heading into Sept. Nature is showing us the seasons have already turned up north, its heading down south into the U.S., early and abruptly for some folks up north. It feels like the Autumn season will be coming in a lot earlier this year...just like last year, but could it rival last year's cold Autumn??? We shall see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 Today's 12z Euro op 6-10 day mean 500mb forecast run literally flashed what I had envisioned in my earlier post what an exhibit of the new LRC will look like: 1) Ridge off west coast 2) Aleutian Low 3) Greenland Block 4) Northern stream Flow 5) Trough-like pattern over the majority of our Sub 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 18, 2019 Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 Today's 12z Euro op 6-10 day mean 500mb forecast run literally flashed what I had envisioned in my earlier post what an exhibit of the new LRC will look like: 1) Ridge off west coast 2) Aleutian Low 3) Greenland Block 4) Northern stream Flow 5) Trough-like pattern over the majority of our Sub :) I have nothing to add. Not one thing. Have a weak leader through coming and a massive follower.You hit the checklist right on the head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 :) I have nothing to add. Not one thing.Have a weak leader through coming and a massive follower.You hit the checklist right on the head. This season could really end up being legendary for places in our Sub. Hard to say where exactly until I see the LRC fully develop. To think that Back-to-Back wild/extreme Winters are on the table would be real fun to track. It would be quite enjoyable to see across the heartland again. Even though my area was not on the receiving end of the historic snow stats, I'm more inclined to believe this cold season will be for one, very Long, and two, more widespread with cold/snow potential. To be quite honest, I'm starting to get a bit excited based on what I'm starting to see and the consistency is some of the modeling I look at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 18, 2019 Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 It's 100 heading for 102. Forecast for tomorrow is 103. All this talk of Fall is making me crazy as I sweat while trying to keep my flowers alive. If the A/C failed right now, I'd commit "hari-kari"Everyone is totally maxed out with this heat. Enough already. Bring on Fall. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 18, 2019 Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 Central Kansas has experienced 11 earthquakes in a week. Anyone feel it? https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/kansas/article234125492.html 2.4 to 4.2. Mid continent quakes are not common. But these have been surprising. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 18, 2019 Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 Central Kansas has experienced 11 earthquakes in a week. Anyone feel it? https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/kansas/article234125492.html 2.4 to 4.2. Mid continent quakes are not common. But these have been surprising. IMG_3861.PNGYou know, I thought at times that I've felt some very slight trembling way out here this week, but I never verified it. Quakes up that far are pretty uncommon indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 18, 2019 Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 This season could really end up being legendary for places in our Sub. Hard to say where exactly until I see the LRC fully develop. To think that Back-to-Back wild/extreme Winters are on the table would be real fun to track. It would be quite enjoyable to see across the heartland again. Even though my area was not on the receiving end of the historic snow stats, I'm more inclined to believe this cold season will be for one, very Long, and two, more widespread with cold/snow potential. To be quite honest, I'm starting to get a bit excited based on what I'm starting to see and the consistency is some of the modeling I look at.Seeing the PAC go through transition, at this time is the key. It's been a long time in waiting, because frankly, a full warm Pacific is bad for everyone. Gotta keep that cold fetch going off Asia and the cool tongue SW of Baja. It's like doing a math equation at this point. If we can learn to do it correctly, we can beat the LRC and distance modeling by around 60-85 days.12 days ago, it started in the Arctic, it transitions south over the largest areas of water, then boom, imprints on continental landmasses.This also lends credence to my long held theory that sometimes the pattern transition overlaps in mid-July. Now we just watch the interior Rockies from Wyoming to BC Canada for cold and southern and southwestern Alaska for exceeding warmth.That late month cold shot has to verify for it all to work, but given the veracity of that July cold front a month ago, the tropics can't stand up to it much longer.You'll hear no complaints from me. If it all works, the heartland may experience the coldest October in 10 years. (My prediction) Hang in there, Andie. I know we have said that for 3 weeks. Sorry. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 18, 2019 Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 Also, anyone see a SE ridge in that map up there? Nope. Me either. I love it. If one flares up, it will(should) be a "tilted", thin, ridge instead of a solid, stable one. There is a difference. When I get opportunity to demonstrate I will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 18, 2019 Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 You know, I thought at times that I've felt some very slight trembling way out here this week, but I never verified it. Quakes up that far are pretty uncommon indeed.Well, I posted this here so the central US forum could think about whether they felt any or not. It's just so rare to see a swarm in Kansas. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 18, 2019 Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 That late month cold shot has to verify for it all to work, but given the veracity of that July cold front a month ago, the tropics can't stand up to it much longer.You'll hear no complaints from me. If it all works, the heartland may experience the coldest October in 10 years. (My prediction)Hang in there, Andie. I know we have said that for 3 weeks. Sorry.Hanging as hard as I can at 103* this afternoon. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 19, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2019 Interesting tidbit of info regarding the Stratosphere at 10mb: "10HPA ( blue line ) zonal wind V climo is record negative Canadian mean of the seasonal runs for the strat vortex shows means 20M/S below ave & clusters around 10M/S" The chart below is a representation of the above comment...something really special is brewing up for this cold season...nature is going to perform some wonders on a global scale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 19, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2019 Some maps below suggesting an interesting look for the start of Winter...could we FINALLY witness a Fast start to Winter??? CanSIPS... ECMWF... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted August 19, 2019 Report Share Posted August 19, 2019 Bill Steffen of WOOD TV 8 here in Grand Rapids has his first winter guess out now https://www.woodtv.com/weather/bills-blog/winter-forecast/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 19, 2019 Report Share Posted August 19, 2019 Looks like Texas is shut out. I was hoping for rain, but he isn't even hopeful about that. Last year was cold here, but we saw little rain. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 19, 2019 Report Share Posted August 19, 2019 Autumn Outlook: Sept-Nov Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 20, 2019 Report Share Posted August 20, 2019 Autumn Outlook: Sept-NovThat's actually not a real bad call there. Blend it with Tom's post and that's called a win, my friends. For once in 10 years. A freaking win. I'm so ready for a real autumn. You folks have no idea how much it sucks to live in the Ozark foothills with all these trees and get no autumn at all. I'm 1,000,000% ready. Yesterday.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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