Jump to content

2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

You look for model consistency to predict a long term forecast, well, it can't get better than this.  Ben Noll uses his Super blend model (264-member ECMWF+UKMET+Météo-France+DWD+CMCC 'super-ensemble') and it illustrates a dream map for the start of Winter. Based off all the research I've been conducting and the way things are lining up in the near term, something really spectacular is once again brewing for our cold season across our Sub Forum.

 

ECXr_gUVAAEHVKp.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would you mind a little commentary explaining what we see here?  The practical consequences? I think I have an idea, but just a few sentences would be much appreciated.  Thanks!

What stands out to me is the deep trough near the Aleutians (Aleutian Low) and the NW NAMER ridge, both, respectively, behave in a way that pump a mean ridge up in the Arctic (blocking) which seeds cold into the U.S.  Also, notice the PAC jet streaming into west coast/SoCal, ultimately indicating a Split Flow pattern and an active STJ.  This was a very similar pattern last year where we had storms coming out of the SW but what may be different this year is the lack of a large scale Southeast Ridge (SER).  Hope this helps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

October is a crucial month for many reasons, but none more so important is the new pattern for the 2019-2020 LRC season.  Some of the more reliable global models are suggesting a very active PAC and stormy/active pattern across the CONUS.  Below is a map of the UKMET 200 hpa velocity potential which in layman terms is showing rising air/convection across the central PAC into N.A.  This could very well be an indication of an active STJ.  The ECMWF/JMA/CFSv2 all have a very similar look as shown below.

 

 

 

ECcbU6NUYAAttFL.jpg

 

 

 

On top of that, I saw this post on twitter from a met showing similar October's with nearly an identical scenario as shown above.  Are we going to see a repeat scenario as last year...cold/stormy October???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ben Noll is providing some valuable information and important clues that will likely have an impact in our Winter as the Southern Hemisphere is about to have a major SSW event which hasn't happened in years (2010).

 

 

 

There have only been two sudden stratospheric warming events in the Southern Hemisphere on record: Sept 2002 & 2010. 1f6a8.png That may change next week, as model guidance is forecasting temperature anomalies up to +60˚C at 10 hPa over Antarctica! 1f6a8.png

 

I am fully anticipating something similar during our cold season which will have major impacts not only on our continent, but Europe as well.  Both of our continents are going to see the wrath of Ol' Man Winter this season.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With fall just around the corner this is a good time to post a list of the sunniest to cloudiest cities. Note that where I live is one of the cloudiest cities and is even the cloudiest in the Great Lakes area thanks to lake Michigan and it's lake effect. So while GR can get a lot of snow in the winter we get a lot of clouds as well. Here is that list

 

 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ccd-data/pctposrank.txt

 

And if you like it sunny it shows you where to go. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There were a couple that weren't half bad here. Craig actually did a decent forecast here.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

October is a crucial month for many reasons, but none more so important is the new pattern for the 2019-2020 LRC season. Some of the more reliable global models are suggesting a very active PAC and stormy/active pattern across the CONUS. Below is a map of the UKMET 200 hpa velocity potential which in layman terms is showing rising air/convection across the central PAC into N.A. This could very well be an indication of an active STJ. The ECMWF/JMA/CFSv2 all have a very similar look as shown below.

 

 

 

ECcbU6NUYAAttFL.jpg

 

 

 

On top of that, I saw this post on twitter from a met showing similar October's with nearly an identical scenario as shown above. Are we going to see a repeat scenario as last year...cold/stormy October???

So, what you're saying is that my "coldest October in a decade" call has scientific consensus. Sweetness! That typically means cold December, January. Yes sir!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing that I do note is this. The change finally occured of having JFM bring an onslaught of snow to the east and NE for the first time since 2006. (Minus 2013-14) They had 13 winters of amazement after 2004-05. No more. :)

 

If you're looking for clues, that's a major one. Major. Other sign I note, the suppressed Atlantic hurricane season. In spite of hype, it's pretty much nothing but one over hyped hurricane. They're screaming about tropical depressions right now, but there were some eras in which they'd only be called "coastal lows". Weak sauce.

 

If hurricane season makes it past Sept 15 without a cat 2 land falling west of the Mississippi, winter is on west of the Apps. 100 percent.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ben Noll is providing some valuable information and important clues that will likely have an impact in our Winter as the Southern Hemisphere is about to have a major SSW event which hasn't happened in years (2010).

 

 

I am fully anticipating something similar during our cold season which will have major impacts not only on our continent, but Europe as well. Both of our continents are going to see the wrath of Ol' Man Winter this season.

Yessur. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There were a couple that weren't half bad here. Craig actually did a decent forecast here.

 

Ofc, the focus of that article was national and how actual results went strongly against (if not a complete opposite result of) early consensus forecasts for met winter (DJF). I followed the same signs that most did (historical averages for weak Ninos with a bit of gut feeling mixed in for good measure) and ended up mostly wrong! If you were to look only at seasonal snow totals here and in Battle Creek, my analog-based call wasn't half bad. But how we got there was anything but normal. We had not witnessed a snowy November since perhaps Y2K, yet 6 weeks of winter hiatus here from Dec 1st until Jan 18th, was propped up by an historic snowy November (#1 for BC & #3 for Marshall). I'm still feeling a bit snake-bitten by how last winter played out and agree with the writer that too many shorter-term patterns can through some major wrenches into the best laid LR/seasonal forecasts especially when there isn't an overwhelmingly strong ENSO state. Just my 2-cents fwiw..

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing that I do note is this. The change finally occured of having JFM bring an onslaught of snow to the east and NE for the first time since 2006. (Minus 2013-14) They had 13 winters of amazement after 2004-05. No more. :)

 

If you're looking for clues, that's a major one. Major. Other sign I note, the suppressed Atlantic hurricane season. In spite of hype, it's pretty much nothing but one over hyped hurricane. They're screaming about tropical depressions right now, but there were some eras in which they'd only be called "coastal lows". Weak sauce.

 

If hurricane season makes it past Sept 15 without a cat 2 land falling west of the Mississippi, winter is on west of the Apps. 100 percent.

 

The suppressed  tropical season was definitely a feature during our trifecta of cold winters in '14-'15-'16. Don't take my other post(s) to mean this winter will also go against all signs and signals. We just have to allow for nature to have the final answer when she choses, lol

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking wetter and chilly here. Sure beats those cold, dry killing winters we can get.

  • Like 2

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The suppressed tropical season was definitely a feature during our trifecta of cold winters in '14-'15-'16. Don't take my other post(s) to mean this winter will also go against all signs and signals. We just have to allow for nature to have the final answer when she choses, lol

Truth.

I'm just going with a bit of what I observe more this year than in years past. Hoping I get a bit closer to right. '15 and '16, the cold dumped off the east coast and into the N.Atl. '17 and '18, it was held back into the west and southwest and north central US when I was dead sure it was going to drive right down the center in at least one if those years. This year has been so remarkably different than the last 4, by miles. I'm sitting here near noon at 72 degrees waiting on my 4th consecutive day of rainfall, in August. That's a 180° turn from any year I've had in the last half-decade.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As for "fast start autumns" in general for the Mitt, I can cite '89 (Sept mega CF's/Oct 19 snowstorm/Nov 15-16 Blizzard) as the #1 ranked in at least the last (4) decades and quite possibly even further back than that all the way to the 1950 timeframe. For comparison, winter of 89-90 came to LP of Michigan roughly 6-8 wks ahead of schedule, at least for SEMI region where I was living at the time.

 

Next best is likely 2000 with it's Oct squalls/Thanksgiving snowstorm/Dec 10-11th legit and widespread Blizzard (not a few counties). 

 

After that, it's harder to itemize a 3rd place. There have been several years (some of which I was not living in SMI proper) that had a large storm, or regional LES hit for those lucky enough to get a favorable fetch (2014 for example). But a true widespread early onset of winter beginning with an aggressive SON period, those are few and far between. 2006 made a run at it, including the 10-12-06 snow-blitz, but then failed to follow-through when the Nov 30/Dec 1st big-dog curved too far west leading into a classic Nino-esque Dec/Jan period.  

 

Honorable mentions have to go out to these years for a notable snow during Oct (which is early with our avg being only 0.2" for the month): 2013, 2009, 2006, 2000

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope this November we don't get any snow here because we all remember how December of last year ended up....No Snow and No Cold. Not sure if that holds true or not, but tbh, when I see snow in the forecast during November, I start getting really concern about December snowfall and cold temps. If it will snow in November, Id rather it be late in the month, instead of early to mid month.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking wetter and chilly here. Sure beats those cold, dry killing winters we can get.

That can be a real pain in the neck. Imagine, heart of Winter, bare ground, temps in the teens w sunny skies. UGH! Somebody shoot me!!!!!!!!

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That can be a real pain in the neck. Imagine, heart of Winter, bare ground, temps in the teens w sunny skies. UGH! Somebody shoot me!!!!!!!!

But that sounds like Texas! we do that often in Jan. And Feb.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But that sounds like Texas! we do that often in Jan. And Feb.

 

We did a lot of that last winter up here too, lol. Only difference here is that there are a lot of plow piles to remind one that it's still winter..

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But that sounds like Texas! we do that often in Jan. And Feb.

Yes. Your area and points NW into the Panhandle can have some brutally depressing bare or icy, cold, 35 mph wind days that really do suck. OKC and points to the SW are the same. Red frozen dirt and dead yellow-brown grass with 6 trees on the horizon is pretty sad by anyone's standards. Lol. It's just darn depressing. The only other really depressing thing I remember seeing is when the ice storms tore up the area out by Okemah Oklahoma on I-40 back in the late 1990s. I think it was December 1999. What few trees that were in the fields in that stretch west of where the elevation increases and the woodland areas truly begin were so ugly and sad looking. That area is all farmland now (or most), but it looked like a hopeless wasteland then.

 

In short, we need freaking snow!! It cures the winter blues!! :)

 

I'd go for a November 2000 here. 2013 almost pulled that off but the snow died out and the moisture dammed up 30 miles to my south (due to elevation) knocking power out from Natural Dam to Ft Smith with an inch of ice for a week. I don't want almost. Lol.

 

Some of the winters of the early and late 80s were exciting for both Dallas and here. Some had that ice risk, too, though. Gotta take the good with the bad here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope this November we don't get any snow here because we all remember how December of last year ended up....No Snow and No Cold. Not sure if that holds true or not, but tbh, when I see snow in the forecast during November, I start getting really concern about December snowfall and cold temps. If it will snow in November, Id rather it be late in the month, instead of early to mid month.

Sorry for multi-posting, everyone.

 

I agree with this logic a lot. Snow in or before November is a novelty unless it's during Thanksgiving week. What I mean by that is that theres really no purpose for it and it doesn't last long. It's usually a nuisance and very ugly in a day or two.

Any time after November 20, you can hold cold longer. Mornings can drop to the low teens in November here with highs in the mid 30s during long cold stretches so it would be more worthwhile. Then you likely open December with REAL winter that lasts. My average here in November (pre-2010) used to be near one inch. I'm sure it will drop when we roll to 1990-2020 avgs here before long. Cold Thanksgivings bring families together. That's why I miss them so badly. People don't busy themselves with so many trivial things as they do in years where it's warm all winter long. In short, folks are selfish. It's sad, but true. People remember that they need one another in hard times. I wouldn't mind 10 years of hard winters just for that alone.

I miss the old days.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry for multi-posting, everyone.

 

I agree with this logic a lot. Snow in or before November is a novelty unless it's during Thanksgiving week. What I mean by that is that theres really no purpose for it and it doesn't last long. It's usually a nuisance and very ugly in a day or two.

Any time after November 20, you can hold cold longer. Mornings can drop to the low teens in November here with highs in the mid 30s during long cold stretches so it would be more worthwhile. Then you likely open December with REAL winter that lasts. My average here in November (pre-2010) used to be near one inch. I'm sure it will drop when we roll to 1990-2020 avgs here before long. Cold Thanksgivings bring families together. That's why I miss them so badly. People don't busy themselves with so many trivial things as they do in years where it's warm all winter long. In short, folks are selfish. It's sad, but true. People remember that they need one another in hard times. I wouldn't mind 10 years of hard winters just for that alone.

I miss the old days.

In Lincoln last year, our November snow actually stuck around for a while. Believe we went half the month with >1" OTG.

  • Like 2

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@TOL_wx

 

Me thinks you moved to Toledo with good timing to snag another good snow season. Just need to keep LaNada going for S Lakes to cash in bigly.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I want a 1978. 39 days of 1" or greater snow cover in this area would be enough to rest my hunger for a year or two. Lol.

I will have to look again, but I think that was the number of days with 20+ inches OTG in this region. 78 is #1 or 2 for double-digit snow cover days.

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry for multi-posting, everyone.

 

I agree with this logic a lot. Snow in or before November is a novelty unless it's during Thanksgiving week. What I mean by that is that theres really no purpose for it and it doesn't last long. It's usually a nuisance and very ugly in a day or two.

Any time after November 20, you can hold cold longer. Mornings can drop to the low teens in November here with highs in the mid 30s during long cold stretches so it would be more worthwhile. Then you likely open December with REAL winter that lasts. My average here in November (pre-2010) used to be near one inch. I'm sure it will drop when we roll to 1990-2020 avgs here before long. Cold Thanksgivings bring families together. That's why I miss them so badly. People don't busy themselves with so many trivial things as they do in years where it's warm all winter long. In short, folks are selfish. It's sad, but true. People remember that they need one another in hard times. I wouldn't mind 10 years of hard winters just for that alone.

I miss the old days.

Couldnt have said it better!

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We did a lot of that last winter up here too, lol. Only difference here is that there are a lot of plow piles to remind one that it's still winter..

That is what makes it even more frustrating. :lol:

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course, you should take all this with a grain of salt, as extended weather forecasting can never be 100% accurate. Long before today's technology existed, people relied on nature to predict harsh weather—and some if it still holds true in modern times. Here are 20 signs that a rough winter is coming, according to folklore, so you can keep an eye out for more evidence:

 

1. Thicker-Than-Normal Corn Husks.

 

2. Woodpeckers Sharing a Tree.

 

3. The Early Arrival of the Snowy owl.

 

4. The Early Departure of Geese and Ducks.

 

5. The Early Migration of the Monarch butterfly.

 

6. Thick Hair on the Nape of a Cow’s Neck.

 

7. Heavy and Numerous Fogs During August.

 

8. Raccoons With Thick Tails and Bright Bands.

 

9. Mice Chewing Furiously To Get Into Your Home.

 

10. The Early Arrival of Crickets on the Hearth.

 

11. Spiders Spinning Larger-Than-Usual Webs and Entering the House in Great Numbers.

 

12. Pigs Gathering Sticks.

 

13. Ants Marching in a Line Rather Than Meandering.

 

14. Early Seclusion of Bees Within the Hive.

 

15. Unusual Abundance of Acorns.

 

16. Muskrats Burrowing Holes High on the River Bank.

 

17. “See how high the hornet’s nest, ‘twill tell how high the snow will rest.”

 

18. The Size of the Orange Band on the Woollybear (or Woollyworm) Caterpillar.

 

19. Squirrels Gathering Nuts Early to Fortify Against a Hard Winter.

 

20. Frequent Halos or Rings Around the Sun or Moon Forecasts Numerous Snowfalls.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course, you should take all this with a grain of salt, as extended weather forecasting can never be 100% accurate. Long before today's technology existed, people relied on nature to predict harsh weather—and some if it still holds true in modern times. Here are 20 signs that a rough winter is coming, according to folklore, so you can keep an eye out for more evidence:

1. Thicker-Than-Normal Corn Husks.

2. Woodpeckers Sharing a Tree.

3. The Early Arrival of the Snowy owl.

4. The Early Departure of Geese and Ducks.

5. The Early Migration of the Monarch butterfly.

6. Thick Hair on the Nape of a Cow’s Neck.

7. Heavy and Numerous Fogs During August.

8. Raccoons With Thick Tails and Bright Bands.

9. Mice Chewing Furiously To Get Into Your Home.

10. The Early Arrival of Crickets on the Hearth.

11. Spiders Spinning Larger-Than-Usual Webs and Entering the House in Great Numbers.

12. Pigs Gathering Sticks.

13. Ants Marching in a Line Rather Than Meandering.

14. Early Seclusion of Bees Within the Hive.

15. Unusual Abundance of Acorns.

16. Muskrats Burrowing Holes High on the River Bank.

17. “See how high the hornet’s nest, ‘twill tell how high the snow will rest.”

18. The Size of the Orange Band on the Woollybear (or Woollyworm) Caterpillar.

19. Squirrels Gathering Nuts Early to Fortify Against a Hard Winter.

20. Frequent Halos or Rings Around the Sun or Moon Forecasts Numerous Snowfalls.

I literally just read that from the Farmer's Almanac! Here is the link with their Winter outlook☺

https://www.countryliving.com/life/travel/a28722622/farmers-almanac-winter-2019-2020-predictions/

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@ list

 

Twas familiar with most of those since a SMI guy (who really knows his trees and bugs) couldn't stop posting how overwhelming nature's signs were around here at this time six years ago. Turns out that they were "spot on" in fore-telling the worst winter in 134 years. Obviously, if we're not seeing those same signs presently, the thoughts of another '13-14 seems like a long shot. Cool stuff that wx folklore.. 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course, you should take all this with a grain of salt, as extended weather forecasting can never be 100% accurate. Long before today's technology existed, people relied on nature to predict harsh weather—and some if it still holds true in modern times. Here are 20 signs that a rough winter is coming, according to folklore, so you can keep an eye out for more evidence:

 

1. Thicker-Than-Normal Corn Husks.

 

2. Woodpeckers Sharing a Tree.

 

3. The Early Arrival of the Snowy owl.

 

4. The Early Departure of Geese and Ducks.

 

5. The Early Migration of the Monarch butterfly.

 

6. Thick Hair on the Nape of a Cow’s Neck.

 

7. Heavy and Numerous Fogs During August.

 

8. Raccoons With Thick Tails and Bright Bands.

 

9. Mice Chewing Furiously To Get Into Your Home.

 

10. The Early Arrival of Crickets on the Hearth.

 

11. Spiders Spinning Larger-Than-Usual Webs and Entering the House in Great Numbers.

 

12. Pigs Gathering Sticks.

 

13. Ants Marching in a Line Rather Than Meandering.

 

14. Early Seclusion of Bees Within the Hive.

 

15. Unusual Abundance of Acorns.

 

16. Muskrats Burrowing Holes High on the River Bank.

 

17. “See how high the hornet’s nest, ‘twill tell how high the snow will rest.”

 

18. The Size of the Orange Band on the Woollybear (or Woollyworm) Caterpillar.

 

19. Squirrels Gathering Nuts Early to Fortify Against a Hard Winter.

 

20. Frequent Halos or Rings Around the Sun or Moon Forecasts Numerous Snowfalls.

Whether 100 percent true or not, you know I gotta love this post. :) I'm still a bit of an ozark wildman at heart. Can't help it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've always been told that heavy thunderstorms in autumn foretells hard winter. 00z GFS tonight is back "on the money" if that is what I'm looking for. Its wave after wave from now till September 6th.

 

Also, I'm entering the period soon where average highs start to lose 1 per day or every other day. I CANNOT wait. I'm just hoping some of this humidity gets tamped down in the process.

 

Congrats to you folks up there who are going to be enjoying low 60s-mid 70s with brilliant sun on and off for the next couple weeks. That will feel like paradise, I'm sure.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here are some fun ones about thunder that I have heard. (Some I haven't, but it's thundering loudly out tonight and I can't sleep so sue me. :lol:)

 

http://superstitiondictionary.com/thunder-superstitions-folklore/

 

Thunder: Superstitions and Folklore

Posted by superstitious

…The speedy gleams the darkness swallow’d;

Loud, deep, and long the thunder bellow’d;

That night a child might understand

The devil had business on his hand.

 

from Tam O’ Shanter, by Robert Burns

 

Superstitions About Thunder

Thunder is usually a bad omen, as evidenced by the following sayings about thunder on the different days of the week:

 

If it Thunders on Sunday, the death of a great man will follow;

On Monday, the death of a woman is foretold;

On Tuesday in early summer, there will be a good harvest;

On Wednesday, the threat of war and the death of harlots;

On Thursday, an abundance of sheep and corn;

On Friday, a man of note will be murdered;

On Saturday, a great disaster is going to occur… pestilence and death.

 

An uneven number of thunder claps in quick succession will bring good luck.

 

Likewise, thunder from a clear sky foretells of good luck.

 

It is said that Thunder in February is followed by thunder on the same date in May.

 

Another superstition says that if it thunders in February, it will snow in May.

 

The number of times it thunders in January tells the number of frosts April will have.

 

If it thunders in December, there will be especially cold weather.

 

And likewise, when you hear thunder in the winter, it is a precursor to very cold weather.

 

The first thunder in spring is a sign that the winter is broken.

 

Likewise, the first thunder in spring wakes up the snakes.

 

It used to be believed that the ringing of bells could charm thunder away.

 

Making noise during a thunderstorm will cause bad luck. Playing music will bring extremely bad luck.

 

To prevent evil occurrences during a thunder storm, a candle should be lit and left to burn until the storm has passed.

 

If you have no candle, make the sign of the cross on your forehead or chest.

 

Strangely, dreaming of thunder or lightning is thought to be a good omen, foretelling good news from afar and an increase in wealth.

 

Thunder after a funeral means the spirit of the deceased has gone to Heaven.

 

A storm with thunder and lightning during a wedding ceremony foretells of bad luck for the couple.

 

Lightning and thunder will sour milk and cause eggs to rot.

 

Fish will refuse to bite when it’s thundering. However, many believe that it is best to fish for catfish while it’s thundering.

 

And finally, here’s an old superstition that is very counter-intuitive: “To have iron or steel about you during a thunder storm will bring good luck.” (Don’t try this at home)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Farmers Almanac predicts a brutal Winter, but NOAA thinks differently, as usual (Warm) :rolleyes:


  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@ list

 

Twas familiar with most of those since a SMI guy (who really knows his trees and bugs) couldn't stop posting how overwhelming nature's signs were around here at this time six years ago. Turns out that they were "spot on" in fore-telling the worst winter in 134 years. Obviously, if we're not seeing those same signs presently, the thoughts of another '13-14 seems like a long shot. Cool stuff that wx folklore.. 

 

Just realized this. We get ants in this old place usually for a week or so during summer most years. They roam around and "meander" and we usually can tolerate their visit since it's short and any chemicals are also a danger to the pets. Plus we're a chem sensitive household besides. Well, this year was totally different in that the ants came on strong and were serious about their business marching in a line if you will. They lasted a bit longer than normal but have gone back into hiding about a week ago. Signs-n-signals from nature??

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just realized this. We get ants in this old place usually for a week or so during summer most years. They roam around and "meander" and we usually can tolerate their visit since it's short and any chemicals are also a danger to the pets. Plus we're a chem sensitive household besides. Well, this year was totally different in that the ants came on strong and were serious about their business marching in a line if you will. They lasted a bit longer than normal but have gone back into hiding about a week ago. Signs-n-signals from nature??

Get those shovels dusted out  n ready and gas up your snowthrower buddy!! ;)

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 5805

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    2. 5805

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5805

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 5805

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...