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2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion


Tom

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It seems to me the CFS sniffed out the snowy start to Russia/East Asia's Autumn and the beginnings of an early build up of snow is looking likely over the next couple weeks.  I don't believe I've seen this much cold and snow this early in the season across Russia by mid September in my years of tracking the weather.

 

 

 

gfs_asnow_asia_65.png

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It seems to me the CFS sniffed out the snowy start to Russia/East Asia's Autumn and the beginnings of an early build up of snow is looking likely over the next couple weeks.  I don't believe I've seen this much cold and snow this early in the season across Russia by mid September in my years of tracking the weather.

 

 

 

gfs_asnow_asia_65.png

 

My inlaws are in eastern (European) Russia not too far from Moscow and were complaining about how cold it's been even that far east. I've seen upper 30's there in the 2nd half of Sept, but this year's been early even by their stds. Now what that means for us exactly is unknown. We've seen cold take hold there and remain there all winter (11-12). And we've seen it translate to our side of the NHemi eventually. I cannot yet be convinced that our early onset of cold (Duluth records) automatically foretells a good winter outcome for the Lwr Lakes. Case in point, Sept of '81 was very chilly and rainy leading into an historic winter of lore. 81-82 holds the record for most days of dbl digit snow depth at Battle Creek (records to 1895). The following Aug/Sept of '82 started even colder (I remember a 43F morning at LDW) but that was the last blows from the cold regime just prior to a flipping pattern into the Super-Nino of 82-83. I'm not saying we're going to get Nino conditions this winter as everything ENSO-wise points against it. But, we've had some freakish weather patterns like that QBO that didn't switch as expected, the delayed reaction Nino winter of 16-17, etc. Sometimes things will just go against the signs and signals and do as it pleases. I'd be curious to know how this forecasted snow build-up over Eurasia compares to say SON of 2013 but I'm not sure if there's a place to see weekly historical snowcover advance for that region?  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This is humbling. We’re so lucky to live where it’s much safer. Grand Bahama island is now 70% underwater.

 

Storm Chaser Goes Silent - Feared Dead.

 

You gotta check this out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-storm-chaser-went-silent-as-dorian-hit-the-bahamas-he-re-emerged-with-a-harrowing-story/ar-AAGM1jQ

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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This is humbling. We’re so lucky to live where it’s much safer. Grand Bahama island is now 70% underwater.

 

Storm Chaser Goes Silent - Feared Dead.

 

You gotta check this out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-storm-chaser-went-silent-as-dorian-hit-the-bahamas-he-re-emerged-with-a-harrowing-story/ar-AAGM1jQ

That is why I will neva build or buy a home down south. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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So, WxBell has this look for it's Winter Temp Outlook....reminds me of the '13-'14 maps...meantime, when you begin to see the trend off the CFSv2 for the month of October, it is trending towards the 500mb maps I've posted back in August when I saw a pattern that I believe this year will be showcasing.  I posted an animation of the CFSv2 500mb for the last 10 runs in October and its going towards the SW Ridge and NE Canada blocking pattern that I had a vision of for this cold season.  I do strongly believe we will open up the cold season with a dominant northern stream flow and the animation below certainly points that way.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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This is Grand Bahamas Island after Dorian.

The outline is the island before. At least half or more of the city is under water.

 

This is not unlike the vanishing for Port Royal in the Carib. after an earthquake.

This is a very real example of how the map of the world has changed over thousands of years.

 

IMG_3886.JPG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It not the entire south. I haven’t ever dealt with a hurricane and tornados are not frequent. Especially since the climate went wacko. Tornado ally moved NNE of us. Even hail is infrequent.

 

You have a distorted view of us. Deep South is different but Texas is less crazy that NE of here.

Yes, I mean the entire south. Its not just the hurricanes, Tornadoes and etc. Its the heat and humidity as well. You could not pay me enough to move south!! ........but, I would definitely visit and go on vacations anywhere in the south. In fact, I am planning a trip down south ( not sure yet when) , mostly business n pleasure.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Lol. Well in that case avoid summer.

Spring and fall are nice. Remember our fall is later.

 

Many Texans consider the heat as population control but since taxes went up on both coasts, population in my county went up 40%!

 

I’m told my county will be one of the 10 to determine the election. So guess we’ll see lots of Trump before vote time.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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@ Jaster, you can use this site to scroll through historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover daily departures.  I'm not sure if it will work, but the link I posted was for the date Sept 24th, 2013 to give you an idea of what it looked like regarding your question the other day.

 

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2013&ui_day=267&ui_set=2

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Well, GFS now taking us all through 75% of September. It flashed back to 16 days above normal on ensembles for anyone south of Kansas.

--sad deadpan voice--- "oh yay...:("

 

"The Autumn That Never Comes, Part V" continues, or starts, or doesn't start, or WTF....Who cares anymore? Lol.

 

One real, crisp, clear, dry, cool and colorful autumn. All I'm asking for.

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Just did a quick check on the August QBO reading and it dipped to +9.97 from its previous month's reading of +10.96.  Good signs that we are heading in the right direction into Autumn....descending...

 

10mb zonal wind map below illustrate this nicely...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif

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I grew up in Dallas, and I've lived in Minnesota, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana.  If I had to pick between too hot and too cold, I'd pick too cold. Having had all the different experiences, I'd pick Minnesota over Dallas now.  But at least I've had the experiences of several different places to make that decision.  I have to admit that it sort of frustrates me when people say they "could never live in X place."  That goes for Texans talking about Minnesota and Minnesotans talking about Texas.  There are pluses and minuses to almost everywhere.  I love snow, so Dallas winters would frustrate me now.  But in return, I could enjoy sports with my kids outside all winter, exercise outside without bundling up, eat lunch outside without a coat on an unusually warm January day and enjoy pool weather for a few extra months every year. For anyone who has lived their entire life in one state or region, before you pass judgment on someone else's home, make sure you have a broad enough perspective to have an informed judgment.  And I highly recommend living more than one place.  You learn a lot about people, different perspectives and ultimately about yourself.   Had I stayed in Texas my whole life, I'd be a MUCH different person than I am today. 

I've lived in Atlanta, GA long time ago and hated the climate there, especially Winters because you get very little snow. Summers are way too humid and warm. Autumn n late Spring are good to be there. I have relatives and friends ceo's that live in Tampa, FL. Been there in the Summertime once for 2 months, long time ago and did not care for their climate there as well. Best time to go is Wintertime in FL. Been in Nashville, Tennessee and was not too thrilled w the climate there in the Summer as well. So, as you can see, I have experienced the southland and have a pretty good idea of what I am talking about. Otherwise, yes, I agree, that if you have not stayed in the southern parts of the United States and discover the weather there  (especially in the Summer), then, no person can really say that they cannot live there w/o exploring first. 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I dunno, man.  Everything I'm seeing so far is showing an average or above average start to fall in terms of temps. Last year around my neck of the woods, September was above average and October was very slightly below average.  Still had a great winter.  So I'm not saying that I, or anyone else, should throw in the towel on winter if fall ends up being normal or above.  But I just don't see anything yet to suggest that fall is coming in cold.  Still a long way to go, though.

It has come in cold across the north, GL's region and parts of the MW.  The ridge that has maintained itself for parts of the Plains throughout August has been resilient thus far and yet to relax, but it will.  I agree, you don't need a cool/cold Autumn to have a great winter.  I recall the Autumn of 2007 being a warm one and Winter hit hard and kept coming.  That was a La Nina year so something to consider.

 

The last 7-days...

 

7dTDeptUS.png

 

 

The last 14 days...you can argue Autumn came early this year...the next 5 days are going to add to these departures for the same areas...

 

14dTDeptUS.png

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It has come in cold across the north, GL's region and parts of the MW. The ridge that has maintained itself for parts of the Plains throughout August has been resilient thus far and yet to relax, but it will. I agree, you don't need a cool/cold Autumn to have a great winter. I recall the Autumn of 2007 being a warm one and Winter hit hard and kept coming. That was a La Nina year so something to consider.

 

The last 7-days...

 

7dTDeptUS.png

 

 

The last 14 days...you can argue Autumn came early this year...the next 5 days are going to add to these departures for the same areas...

 

14dTDeptUS.png

You're definitely right. The humidity (heat index) here has simply made it suck. I guess it's just been rather normal. I hate normal.

 

I also dislike the 5° scale on that top map. Lol.

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August definitely had some cooler than average days toward the end of the month. And it did come in below normal in KC overall. But August is summer. I guess I was just looking ahead through September (which frankly starts out pretty summery in all but the northern tier of states most years). Right now, September's looking warm in my area. Like I said, that's fine. I don't think it means much for the winter ahead. And maybe tomorrow's model runs will flip flop.

Agree. September usually doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. Would like to see a good blast down here by month's end though.

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So, WxBell has this look for it's Winter Temp Outlook....

 

:) aka The Mitt's dream scenario. Ofc, their map last year had Okwx2k4 dreaming and we know how that worked out. Nonetheless, verbatim, that would have LES belts looking like this again:

 

20140129 TC NBC-TV Sta.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Jaster, you can use this site to scroll through historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover daily departures.  I'm not sure if it will work, but the link I posted was for the date Sept 24th, 2013 to give you an idea of what it looked like regarding your question the other day.

 

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2013&ui_day=267&ui_set=2

 

Thanks Tom! That's exactly the kind of map I meant. Two comments. I remember autumn of '13 was quite mild until the 3rd week of October, then Ma Nature showed her hand. Also, it looks like of all the autumns since, only 2018 seems to have had a much earlier than normal onset of snow cover across Canada. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Thanks Tom! That's exactly the kind of map I meant. Two comments. I remember autumn of '13 was quite mild until the 3rd week of October, then Ma Nature showed her hand. Also, it looks like of all the autumns since, only 2018 seems to have had a much earlier than normal onset of snow cover across Canada. 

Yup, in terms of the last decade, 2018 was the only year really that had a quick start to the onset of snow cover across Canada and we all know how the cold came early and often last Autumn.  I'm seeing the same signal this year and quite frankly, some stronger signals than last year across our region instead of it being centered farther west/north where the cold held on for most of the Autumn.  I'm favoring a much different pattern this coming cold season for our region as the SW/West coast ridge is going to be a main Exhibit of the new LRC.  Lot's of volatility across the Plains states.  These are just my early thoughts.

 

Last Autumn, the SER was very strong which kept us in a volatile temp pattern and an active storm track throughout the Autumn...

 

SON18TDeptUS.png

 

 

SON18PDeptUS.png

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I've lived down here all my life. Experienced it. Hate it.

 

I've also spent a few 10-12 hour straight nights working in subzero weather, ice, and snow (2011, 2014), and I'd say cold wins, hands down. I can do cold better even without acclimation better than I can heat.

I agree. :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Man, if feels Autumn-like outside. Awesome! Some colors are also starting to show on a few trees.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I've lived in Atlanta, GA long time ago and hated the climate there, especially Winters because you get very little snow. Summers are way too humid and warm. Autumn n late Spring are good to be there. I have relatives and friends ceo's that live in Tampa, FL. Been there in the Summertime once for 2 months, long time ago and did not care for their climate there as well. Best time to go is Wintertime in FL. Been in Nashville, Tennessee and was not too thrilled w the climate there in the Summer as well. So, as you can see, I have experienced the southland and have a pretty good idea of what I am talking about. Otherwise, yes, I agree, that if you have not stayed in the southern parts of the United States and discover the weather there  (especially in the Summer), then, no person can really say that they cannot live there w/o exploring first. 

I can only say that Atlanta is very different from the DFW area.  We don't get the afternoon rains that Atlanta gets that turn the area into a sauna.  I wouldn't live there either.  Southern climate varies and the farther you go west, the more tolerable it is in terms of humidity.  All coast lines are the same from Brownsvill, to Washington DC in the summer.  I don't care for coastlines.  

I understand that you are not a fan at all about the south.  We understand that down here.  But we keep telling folks that want to leave theirareas north due to taxation, it's a trade.  If they can't do it, stay where they are or find somewhere else.  Many leave and natives are cool with that.  

 

Our state has grown by 35-40%  It will change us in ways we do not like. 

Our culture is strong though outside of big cities.  They won't change that.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Just read a story where many in the Bahamas were caught in the storm surge, homes destroyed and sharks moving into their communities.

Now that's a nightmare.  One man threw his 5 year old son on a roof to save him only to see him blown intothe surge on the other side.  

Thankfully he survived.  Much of Grand bahamasis simply gone.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Just read a story where many in the Bahamas were caught in the storm surge, homes destroyed and sharks moving into their communities.

Now that's a nightmare.  One man threw his 5 year old son on a roof to save him only to see him blown intothe surge on the other side.  

Thankfully he survived.  Much of Grand bahamasis simply gone.

 

Truly shocking stuff down there. That missing chaser feared dead, he did "surface" a day or two later. He may think twice next time..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I have a friend that lives in Nova Scotia and she’s hoping they don’t lose power or internet. Hard to say. Dorian will hit as a Cat 2 and exit as a 1.

I hope to learn Monday how she is.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I can only say that Atlanta is very different from the DFW area.  We don't get the afternoon rains that Atlanta gets that turn the area into a sauna.  I wouldn't live there either.  Southern climate varies and the farther you go west, the more tolerable it is in terms of humidity.  All coast lines are the same from Brownsvill, to Washington DC in the summer.  I don't care for coastlines.  

I understand that you are not a fan at all about the south.  We understand that down here.  But we keep telling folks that want to leave theirareas north due to taxation, it's a trade.  If they can't do it, stay where they are or find somewhere else.  Many leave and natives are cool with that.  

 

Our state has grown by 35-40%  It will change us in ways we do not like. 

Our culture is strong though outside of big cities.  They won't change that.

Brownsville, TX has a warmer climate than Washington, D.C. Not quite the same in the Summer. The average low in DC I think averages in the 60s, where Brownsville's low temps remain in the 70s. Its still humid in the Washington Metro area, but not as humid as Brownsville. Anywhere south in Texas, especially headed towards the gulf, gets very humid. I believe New Orleans, LA is considered to be the most humid city. Might have to check on that.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The media is starting to talk about the "Blob" in the NE PAC and the possible impacts for the cold season...we all know what impacts this has during the winter months ahead.  Fun times brewing??

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/allenelizabeth/2019/09/05/another-warm-blob-is-forming-in-the-pacific-ocean/#fc2619e14afb

 

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2018-10-24-the-blob-returns-pacific-ocean

 

While we let that sink in for a minute, I noticed how much warmer the waters are off the coast of Cali now compared to the SST's back in Sept '14.  If those waters continue to hold its warmth or even warm farther, this can and prob will promote a west coast/SW ridge this Autumn.

 

55a25ac8-66dd-4209-8237-5b54a3033797-lar

 

 

I spoke to my friend in Arizona the other day and he said this year has been a very slow Monsoon season compared to the previous two summers.  The SW has had back-to-back wild winter seasons and both of those summers prior to those cold seasons had strong monsoons.  Is the lack of a monsoon this year a sign that the Autumn/Winter this year won't be as bad???  Could be.  As I farther study what is happening across the northern hemisphere I'm picking up on more clues that will drive our weather pattern across the CONUS.

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So, WxBell has this look for it's Winter Temp Outlook....reminds me of the '13-'14 maps...meantime, when you begin to see the trend off the CFSv2 for the month of October, it is trending towards the 500mb maps I've posted back in August when I saw a pattern that I believe this year will be showcasing.  I posted an animation of the CFSv2 500mb for the last 10 runs in October and its going towards the SW Ridge and NE Canada blocking pattern that I had a vision of for this cold season.  I do strongly believe we will open up the cold season with a dominant northern stream flow and the animation below certainly points that way.

 

Did you have any outlook maps from autumn of '13? I looked online and don't see one from WxBell. 2014-15 earliest I saw. Don't remember exactly when JB made the move there? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Brownsville, TX has a warmer climate than Washington, D.C. Not quite the same in the Summer. The average low in DC I think averages in the 60s, where Brownsville's low temps remain in the 70s. Its still humid in the Washington Metro area, but not as humid as Brownsville. Anywhere south in Texas, especially headed towards the gulf, gets very humid. I believe New Orleans, LA is considered to be the most humid city. Might have to check on that.

Yes New Orleans is in this report to be have the highest average relative humidity but  not necessarily the highest dew points, 

Here is a list of the some of the top humid cities in the US but note that many are not hot and humid just humid. So some are hot and humid and some are cool and humid.

 

New Orleans, Louisiana

75.9

Jacksonville, Florida

75.8

Houston, Texas

74.7

Orlando, Florida

74.1

Tampa, Florida

74.1

San Francisco, California

73.7

Seattle, Washington

73.3

Miami, Florida

73.2

Portland, Oregon

73.2

Rochester, New York

72.6

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Did you have any outlook maps from autumn of '13? I looked online and don't see one from WxBell. 2014-15 earliest I saw. Don't remember exactly when JB made the move there? 

That would have been awesome to see those maps....

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Did you have any outlook maps from autumn of '13? I looked online and don't see one from WxBell. 2014-15 earliest I saw. Don't remember exactly when JB made the move there?

I remember subscribing before the November 2013 cold wave because I remember the headline, "Coldest November morning since 1976". Its been at least that long.

Nature made it easy that year.

 

My bad, that was 2014... oops.

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A little off topic (or at least a season early), but I just discovered this today by random chance. Maybe others here already knew about this?? After all the hub-bub around the NESIS scale for ranking New England and the East Coast's Mega-storms/blizzards, it's good to see that they replaced that system with the RSI (Regional Severity Index) to more accurately grade storms for the differences in climate zones. They have since back-filled the rankings of all five-hundred (500) major storms since the year 1900. Over almost 120 yrs and all those storms, it's gratifying to see that the Great Blizzard of '78 was indeed the baddest of the bad. The genuine MOAB event (at least in our modern history), and 2nd place isn't even close. As a matter of fact, it's the only storm to more than double the needed 18 points for a CAT-5 ranking! 

 

The Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) is a system used by NOAA to assess the societal impact of winter storms in the United States. The system is a replacement for the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) system which, unlike the former; assesses winter storm impacts outside of the Northeastern United States. Since its initiation the NCDC has retroactively assigned RSI values to over 500 historical storms since 1900.

Storms are ranked from Category 1 to 5 on the scale; with the former being classified as Notable and the latter as Extreme. The impact of the storms is assessed in six different regions of the United States: the Northeast, Northern Rockies and Plains, Ohio Valley, South, Southeast and the Upper Midwest.[1] A Category 5 Extreme ranking is indicated by a numerical score of 18 or higher on the scale.

Out of the over 500 historical storms assessed since 1900, only twenty-six storms have been given a Category 5 ranking. The highest ranking storm on the list is the Great Blizzard of 1978 which scored a value of 39.07. The most recent storm to receive a Category 5 ranking is the January 2016 United States blizzard which scored a value of 20.14. The following list orders the storms chronologically.

 

 

Storm extent and the (6) regions:

 

Snowfall-Map-Great-Blizzard-of-January-1978.jpg

 

The Mitt was obviously "ground zero" for amounts, but OH and IN with their open farmland prone to drifting also experienced their worst storm on record. As bad as it was in downstate Michigan, the far NW snow belts were insane. Here is one man's firsthand memories from the Traverse City area where I lived from '90-'97. His initial comment is his response to a video posted from a small town south of Jackson (Addison) Michigan where they reported 34" of new snow on top of about 5" of existing snow pack. 

 

TC memories of 78 Bliz.PNG

 

 

Link:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Regional_Snowfall_Index_Category_5_winter_storms

 

What I wouldn't give to experience another CAT-5 storm before I get too far over the hill to enjoy it, lol. 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A little off topic (or at least a season early), but I just discovered this today by random chance. Maybe others here already knew about this?? After all the hub-bub around the NESIS scale for ranking New England and the East Coast's Mega-storms/blizzards, it's good to see that they replaced that system with the RSI (Regional Severity Index) to more accurately grade storms for the differences in climate zones. They have since back-filled the rankings of all five-hundred (500) major storms since the year 1900. Over almost 120 yrs and all those storms, it's gratifying to see that the Great Blizzard of '78 was indeed the baddest of the bad. The genuine MOAB event (at least in our modern history), and 2nd place isn't even close. As a matter of fact, it's the only storm to more than double the needed 18 points for a CAT-5 ranking! 

 

 

 

Storm extent and the (6) regions:

 

attachicon.gifSnowfall-Map-Great-Blizzard-of-January-1978.jpg

 

The Mitt was obviously "ground zero" for amounts, but OH and IN with their open farmland prone to drifting also experienced their worst storm on record. As bad as it was in downstate Michigan, the far NW snow belts were insane. Here is one man's firsthand memories from the Traverse City area where I lived from '90-'97. His initial comment is his response to a video posted from a small town south of Jackson (Addison) Michigan where they reported 34" of new snow on top of about 5" of existing snow pack. 

 

attachicon.gifTC memories of 78 Bliz.PNG

 

 

Link:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Regional_Snowfall_Index_Category_5_winter_storms

 

What I wouldn't give to experience another CAT-5 storm before I get too far over the hill to enjoy it, lol. 

In parts of Michigan and Chicago the 1967 storm was as bad or worse then the 1978 storm. That is a nice list and one to use for a bench mark in the future.

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In parts of Michigan and Chicago the 1967 storm was as bad or worse then the 1978 storm. That is a nice list and one to use for a bench mark in the future.

 

Certainly true, including at my folk's place in my native Davison. Those are the (2) CAT-5's for Michigan,

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Certainly true, including at my folk's place in my native Davison. Those are the (2) CAT-5's for Michigan,

Yes, After 1967 and 1978 for Michigan While maybe not all cat 5 but were huge none the less. April 6th 1886 24.5” fell at Detroit. March 17th  1973 over 20” in the tri city’s area (Bay City, Saginaw, Midland) and flooding in Bay City from Saginaw bay. February 25th  1965 over 18” . December 1st 1974 19.3” at Detroit. And I will add two more from my days at Bay City April 3rd 1975 14.4” and how about the ice storm on March 1-2 1976? The 1965, 1973, 1974, 1975 the 1976 ice storm and both 1978 and 1976 storms all had high winds (out of the NE) and lots of thunder and lightning.

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Yes, After 1967 and 1978 for Michigan While maybe not all cat 5 but were huge none the less. April 6th 1886 24.5” fell at Detroit. March 17th  1973 over 20” in the tri city’s area (Bay City, Saginaw, Midland) and flooding in Bay City from Saginaw bay. February 25th  1965 over 18” . December 1st 1974 19.3” at Detroit. And I will add two more from my days at Bay City April 3rd 1975 14.4” and how about the ice storm on March 1-2 1976? The 1965, 1973, 1974, 1975 the 1976 ice storm and both 1978 and 1976 storms all had high winds (out of the NE) and lots of thunder and lightning.

 

Great list for SMI. I'm always telling younger posters in the other forum that the era of my youth was worse for SMI than our recent string of snowy winters but they think it's all "kid's memories inflated by time". I'll allow that we've had seasons in the past (2) decades with higher snow totals as well as top-5 winters over all. But NOAA's own list of storms supports my assertion that the 20 yrs of my youth (1965-85) featured (9) CAT-5 storms east of the Rockies and no other 20 yr period even comes close. It was a very very stormy period and great storms were much more frequent than before or since. Including here in SMI. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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