2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

[jaster220]

Interestingly enough, Deedler's (SEMI Wx Blog) set of analog years that he used for our summer and carried into his autumn outlook contains quite the mix. Numerous years where the following winters were "qualified duds" at least around here. But, also includes at least (4) seasons known for their strong to massive OHV storms: 64-65, 77-78, 07-08, 10-11

 

 

EDIT - Oh, and he's one of the last to the "winter outlook party" btw (Look for the important Winter 2019-20 Outlook early - mid November)

[OKwx2k4]

This could work..

 

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Lock n load. "BOOM"

[Niko]

  This could work..

 

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If this track occurs during the Winter months, then, residents in SEMI, better go for bread, milk n eggs.

[jaster220]

As I was enjoying the fine wx to mow my lawn after work, I was thinking how we are seeing strong storms reaching their peak intensity and just stalling out (Dorian) or looping around (Hybrid south of New England; hello Feb of '78 track), and even this upcoming Plains bliz sits and spins. Idk if this is a temporary thing, or something that could carry over the winter? If it does, look out! We could be looking at some crazy amazing events. 

[CentralNebWeather]

As I was enjoying the fine wx to mow my lawn after work, I was thinking how we are seeing strong storms reaching their peak intensity and just stalling out (Dorian) or looping around (Hybrid south of New England; hello Feb of '78 track), and even this upcoming Plains bliz sits and spins. Idk if this is a temporary thing, or something that could carry over the winter? If it does, look out! We could be looking at some crazy amazing events.

I like how you think. I was just thinking the same thing as I see the upcoming days forecast animation of the Northern Plains Blizzard.

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

Prior to the Feb 1-2, 2015 Big Dog top 3 storm, this one from 10 yrs prior was the modern era biggie for DTW. Notice those Big Dog totals just to your NE in St. Clair Cnty where they got a small boost from northerly winds coming down Huron. This actually came with strong winds and borderline blizzard conditions. It was quite a storm, tho oddly, I don't remember normal outlets hyping it up at all. At that time, I followed Bastardi's long ranger segment when he was his old self with Accuweather. He said it would become a huge bliz for the East Coast/New England but would also be a bliz back in Michigan. He was the only one I know of who called the strength accurately. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/050122winterstorm

 

Another look at that storm's path across SMI

 

 

N. Burbs of Detroit and up into the Thumb also got smashed with the very late storm on April 26th, 2005. I'd forgotten that one. The more I realize it, 2004-05 was actually quite the stormy winter around SMI

 

 

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

Prior to the Feb 1-2, 2015 Big Dog top 3 storm, this one from 10 yrs prior was the modern era biggie for DTW. Notice those Big Dog totals just to your NE in St. Clair Cnty where they got a small boost from northerly winds coming down Huron. This actually came with strong winds and borderline blizzard conditions. It was quite a storm, tho oddly, I don't remember normal outlets hyping it up at all. At that time, I followed Bastardi's long ranger segment when he was his old self with Accuweather. He said it would become a huge bliz for the East Coast/New England but would also be a bliz back in Michigan. He was the only one I know of who called the strength accurately. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/050122winterstorm

 

Another look at that storm's path across SMI

 

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N. Burbs of Detroit and up into the Thumb also got smashed with the very late storm on April 26th, 2005. I'd forgotten that one. The more I realize it, 2004-05 was actually quite the stormy winter around SMI

Considering the lake is rather small in size, it can do the damage by providing some LES. A NE wind component can bring LES in Macomb County as well. It has done that several times, but the windflow has to be excellent.

 

I think we are due for some big dogs this Winter.

[Tom]

As I was enjoying the fine wx to mow my lawn after work, I was thinking how we are seeing strong storms reaching their peak intensity and just stalling out (Dorian) or looping around (Hybrid south of New England; hello Feb of '78 track), and even this upcoming Plains bliz sits and spins. Idk if this is a temporary thing, or something that could carry over the winter? If it does, look out! We could be looking at some crazy amazing events. 

This is certainly a culprit of low solar and high lat blocking.  My gut feeling is this will be a common theme overall throughout the cold season.

 

 

I like how you think. I was just thinking the same thing as I see the upcoming days forecast animation of the Northern Plains Blizzard.

It'll likely be common this year compared to any other year in recent years.  As Beltrami Island said in another thread, I think '09-'10 was the last time we were in a deep solar minimum and this one is deeper than that solar cycle.  I think we'll see plenty of strong, slow moving storm systems that have plenty of time to strengthen as the anchor troughs become established over our Sub Forum.

[Grizzcoat]

- some info on the amount of rain DSM has had recently before it AGAIN starts to pour-- Since Sept 1st- 9.99". Since Oct 1st - 5.09". (12th ALL TIME for OCT and still 21 days to go!!.) Yearly stands at 44.41". That is 9th all time with still nearly 3 months left and 13.86" above normal. IT CAN STOP ANYTIME!!!

[Grizzcoat]

Update to the above. An additional .91" has fallen since the above post.  That puts OCT 2019 at 6.00". 6th place all time with 3 week left. Yearly now stands 45.32". Also 6th all time with over 2.5 months left.

[Niko]

Trees are showing more colors on them as each day rolls on through. By next week, it will be at peak (around mid October usually).

[james1976]

I'm liking that, so far, it seems that the cold fronts over the next couple of weeks are forecast to drop into the Rockies and move east, instead of dropping down over Minnesota and Wisconsin, and moving into the Lakes and Ohio Valley (no offense to those folks!). Out here in KC, we sometimes get missed by cold and storms because they develop too far east. We just get grazed. Hopefully (for us) there is a trend of things developing further west this year. I know my Nebraska and Oklahoma counterparts probably agree.

No doubt. Hopefully some deeper troughs with the new LRC

[OKwx2k4]

I'm liking that, so far, it seems that the cold fronts over the next couple of weeks are forecast to drop into the Rockies and move east, instead of dropping down over Minnesota and Wisconsin, and moving into the Lakes and Ohio Valley (no offense to those folks!). Out here in KC, we sometimes get missed by cold and storms because they develop too far east. We just get grazed. Hopefully (for us) there is a trend of things developing further west this year. I know my Nebraska and Oklahoma counterparts probably agree.

Yep. 100 percent. Hoping that they dig and phase out west this year. OK/KS/NE and TX up east through MO and Appalachia have all been significantly lacking in the snowfall and cold categories in the last few years. All trends point to major change in those categories over the next few years so you won't hear me complain.

[jaster220]

Trees are showing more colors on them as each day rolls on through. By next week, it will be at peak (around mid October usually).

 

Down here, I consider color season to run from 10/10 to 11/10 on avg, so yeah, we're just starting really. 

[Niko]

Down here, I consider color season to run from 10/10 to 11/10 on avg, so yeah, we're just starting really. 

Mid October is usually at peak here in mby. Trees are starting to really explode. Awesome colors out there.

[jaster220]

Odd that 1911-12 nor 1880-81 nor 1976-77 or any other notoriously cold winter makes the top (3) here in the Mitt

 

According to NOAA, the coldest 3-month winter periods (Dec – Feb) in Michigan history were 1903/04, 1917/18, 1919/20.

 

1903-04 at Battle Creek stands in 2nd place all-time for days with dbl digit snow depth. At (60) total, it trails 81-82 by only one day, tho during 81-82 all (61) days were consecutive! 1917-18 was no slouch either, but scored better in the max depth dept coming in 3rd all-time at a solid 25"

 

1919-20 hmm. 100 yr reenactment in the making?

[Tom]

The Northern Hemisphere snow advance index continues to "rocket" upwards as we head deeper into Autumn.  North America is also benefiting in the snow dept and is likely to continue in a rapid, possibly record pace.  In fact, it's nearing decadal highs at the moment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From today's time stamp, I reviewed the snow departure maps and tried to compare this year's departures of normal to any other year in the past 20 years and the only year that comes close is Oct '09 for North America.  Are we going to see any parallels to that season???  December to Remember???  Massive Blizzard in the heartland???  

[OKwx2k4]

Odd that 1911-12 nor 1880-81 nor 1976-77 or any other notoriously cold winter makes the top (3) here in the Mitt

 

 

1903-04 at Battle Creek stands in 2nd place all-time for days with dbl digit snow depth. At (60) total, it trails 81-82 by only one day, tho during 81-82 all (61) days were consecutive! 1917-18 was no slouch either, but scored better in the max depth dept coming in 3rd all-time at a solid 25"

 

1919-20 hmm. 100 yr reenactment in the making?

My honest belief as to why is that the cold source was centered further west in those years. Probably encountered some warm ups ahead of the major snowstorms in the big dog years. Hard to get extreme cold without dry and suppression and likewise, hard to get snow without moisture return, contrast and some atmospheric dynamics, which would logically raise the temperature.

 

I may be wrong, but in theory and from memory of old maps, it makes perfect sense.

[Grizzcoat]

Denver officially 9F this AM. Earliest single digit temp in recorded history for Denver.

[jaster220]

The Northern Hemisphere snow advance index continues to "rocket" upwards as we head deeper into Autumn.  North America is also benefiting in the snow dept and is likely to continue in a rapid, possibly record pace.  In fact, it's nearing decadal highs at the moment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From today's time stamp, I reviewed the snow departure maps and tried to compare this year's departures of normal to any other year in the past 20 years and the only year that comes close is Oct '09 for North America.  Are we going to see any parallels to that season???  December to Remember???  Massive Blizzard in the heartland???  

 

Keep the impressive stats coming Tom. In the meantime, I'll see your bliz of Dec '09, and raise you with bliz of Dec '00

[Clinton]

GFS Continues to bring down another Rock Mountain trough and a strong storm around the 20th.  Man, we could have one hell of a glacier built by mid Dec if thing line up right in the next cycle.  Nebraska folks get ready for more snow.

[jaster220]

Had the day off and decided to get out and enjoy the rainy day. Even tho it was mild here still, the overcast with on/off showers and breezes made it seem like the season. I guess the chilly morning we had a few days back was enough to trigger some colors after all. Mostly in the low-land marshes but there's even a few trees in town ablaze. With the constant rain I had a challenge to get any clear shots. These were the better of the batch.

 

[Niko]

Had the day off and decided to get out and enjoy the rainy day. Even tho it was mild here still, the overcast with on/off showers and breezes made it seem like the season. I guess the chilly morning we had a few days back was enough to trigger some colors after all. Mostly in the low-land marshes but there's even a few trees in town ablaze. With the constant rain I had a challenge to get any clear shots. These were the better of the batch.

 

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Great pics bud!

[OKwx2k4]

In future cycles, this becomes a southern branch phase. Right to my west. You can pretty well mark my words. I love it when a plan comes together.

 

 

Also, look at that closed ridge out west. So beautiful.

[Tom]

In future cycles, this becomes a southern branch phase. Right to my west. You can pretty well mark my words. I love it when a plan comes together.

 

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Also, look at that closed ridge out west. So beautiful.

I've been predicting a tropical system coming out of the GOM during the week of the 20th so this "fits" the idea.  As you said, this pattern in the mid/long range is looking very pretty for our Sub.

[gimmesnow]

So, what are the odds we get a cold snap mid november? Need a few nights in the lower 20s or colder to blow snow for skiing and snowboarding. I want an early start to the season, I have a good feeling about this winter.

[possum]

i just want COLD..  TN is due for a cold winter..  

[snowstorm83]

i just want COLD..  TN is due for a cold winter..  

 

I understand. I'm from Memphis and last winter was very warm in that area. Just a couple dustings. Back in the 60s-80s, west TN received a lot of cold and snow compared to average, which has waned. Hoping for a good one this winter, I was still in the area for the March 2015 storm. 

[Niko]

Lots of colors out there. Next week will be peak.

[westMJim]

Lost of colors out there. Next week will be peak.

Sorry for you lost of colors. LOL 

[westMJim]

 I am sorry to say this but I ordered 4 new tires today at Belle Tire so with that in mind there should not be as much snow fall this winter.That kind of goes hand in hand with buying a snow blower or getting a plowing service always a good way to see less snow fall. Sorry about that for any one who loves a lot of snow. 

[OKwx2k4]

I am sorry to say this but I ordered 4 new tires today at Belle Tire so with that in mind there should not be as much snow fall this winter.That kind of goes hand in hand with buying a snow blower or getting a plowing service always a good way to see less snow fall. Sorry about that for any one who loves a lot of snow.

Hope that means you're rerouting it south. My hope is for all us folks east of the continental divide to the interior east to cash in.

[jaster220]

 I am sorry to say this but I ordered 4 new tires today at Belle Tire so with that in mind there should not be as much snow fall this winter.That kind of goes hand in hand with buying a snow blower or getting a plowing service always a good way to see less snow fall. Sorry about that for any one who loves a lot of snow. 

 

I don't believe in jinxes and such, but if this does fail, and go down a toilet, it was awful nice of you to be the scapegoat!  

 

;-)  (I think you're fine tho. Every once and a while, a ladder you just walked under falls on that black cat crossing near you)

[jaster220]

Ruka, Finland was the first non-glacier resort to open in Europe last week. Apparently they've developed a technique called "snow farming" whereby they preserve a bunch of last year's snow under a tarp all summer. Then when temps look promising, they "harvest" it and spread it back out over (3) runs and kick-off the season 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Took a glance at the 10mb zonal winds and they have been steadily descending over the last couple months which is the reason why the QBO has been declining and in an easterly phase.  I'm starting to believe that we will have an early major Stratospheric Warming event in December.  This was a preseason gut feeling and there is early indication based on data I look at that may lead this to be a viable outcome.  If this does happen, in order for North America to benefit from the outcome of this potential SSW event, it would need to take place over Siberia/Russia.  I learned from past experience just last year when we had a torchy December.  That year we saw a major SSW disruption over N Canada which flooded North America with warmth.  This time, however, I don't see it happening over N.A. but instead across the Pole into Siberia/Russia.  Interesting times ahead.  Low Solar is certainly going to pay dividends this cold season.

 

 

 

[Niko]

I don't believe in jinxes and such, but if this does fail, and go down a toilet, it was awful nice of you to be the scapegoat!  

 

;-)  (I think you're fine tho. Every once and a while, a ladder you just walked under falls on that black cat crossing near you)

 

Funny how some people think

[jaster220]

The colors were peaking in far NMI this weekend! (but viewing conditions were anything but peak-constant rain/wind/mix/shsn). Nonetheless, I love this time of year and since you can't put 'em on hold, you do the best you can with what Nature throws down. Despite conditions, it was busier than I can ever remember. #goodtimes! 

 

 

[Niko]

The colors were peaking in far NMI this weekend! (but viewing conditions were anything but peak-constant rain/wind/mix/shsn). Nonetheless, I love this time of year and since you can't put 'em on hold, you do the best you can with what Nature throws down. Despite conditions, it was busier than I can ever remember. #goodtimes! 

 

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Great pics bud!

 

Btw: is that i-94W

[jaster220]

Great pics bud!

 

Btw: is that i-94W

 

haha. NO! you look but don't read amigo? l said up north is peak colors. That's (old) US27 north near Vanderbuilt. Even here it's officially called "old" US27 which never made sense to me since the replacement hwy isn't called "27" anything. It's I-69 here in Marshall and up there it's I-75 that was built as the upgrades to the original trunklines. 

[Niko]

haha. NO! you look but don't read amigo? l said up north is peak colors. That's (old) US27 north near Vanderbuilt. Even here it's officially called "old" US27 which never made sense to me since the replacement hwy isn't called "27" anything. It's I-69 here in Marshall and up there it's I-75 that was built as the upgrades to the original trunklines. 

Funny, there is a i-69 north of mby. Neva been to that hwy though. I think the further north you go, you kinda enter ghost towns . I need civilization.  Remember, I was brought up in nyc...wild, crazy city.