2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

[jaster220]

Euro seasonal has a great looking temp pattern for the month of January....slight SER???

 

 

OMG buddy, the stuff models are tossing out almost falls in the "too good to be true" category.  I remember the Euro monthly snowfall anomaly maps posted back in October? They showed S GL's with deficits for Nov and Dec, then finally getting some action in Jan with Feb looking blockbuster. Well, the "below avg November" was a FAIL. Looking like the same will be said for December the way things are lining up. Your epic to even beyond epic season LR call is looking stout from here. In the FWIW dept, Roger Smith likes Chicago as ground zero for positive snow departures in 78-79 fashion. I personally have leaned towards DTW narrowly edging out ORD in the positive departures category similar to 2013-14 outcome. With either option resulting in "burysville" for mby it's easy to be pumped at the prospects of what DJFM hold for us. 

[Hoosier]

OMG buddy, the stuff models are tossing out almost falls in the "too good to be true" category. I remember the Euro monthly snowfall anomaly maps posted back in October? They showed S GL's with deficits for Nov and Dec, then finally getting some action in Jan with Feb looking blockbuster. Well, the "below avg November" was a FAIL. Looking like the same will be said for December the way things are lining up. Your epic to even beyond epic season LR call is looking stout from here. In the FWIW dept, Roger Smith likes Chicago as ground zero for positive snow departures in 78-79 fashion. I personally have leaned towards DTW narrowly edging out ORD in the positive departures category similar to 2013-14 outcome. With either option resulting in "burysville" for mby it's easy to be pumped at the prospects of what DJFM hold for us.

Maybe I am misinterpreting what you're saying but I don't recall Roger being that bullish on snow. Snowier than average for ORD, yeah, but not an all-timer. I'd personally shy away from an elite/historic type winter as well, but I'd probably say that every single time at this point in the season. It's nothing personal about this winter but more how you need almost everything to go right to get a truly epic season. Outside of lake effect regions, I don't think we are capable of doing what a place like Boston did in 2015 where it just went nuts beyond belief in February with 65" and gave them that very high total in the end. Can't afford too much lull time.

[jaster220]

So far it's looking like Minnesota will be ground zero for above normal snowfall.  I realize it's early, and Minnesota is a snowy state.  But they're like a magnate up there so far. 

 

Yeah, they certainly are winning in the 1st quarter of the game, no doubt there. But sitting at ~300% AN snowfall for mby can't be considered losing either, lol. Only time will truly tell whether MN's early success indeed progresses S and E as we get into real winter. For example, 81-82 is a top 5 season for snowfall/depth for most of SMI. We sat on the sidelines watching storms bury N Midwest and the East Coast mostly during Dec and most of January before the pendulum finally swung our way and buried us too. It's just too early to say at this point, so stay tuned..

[westMJim]

Ok, here is a list of each states snowiest location in the years 1985 to 2015 (some are more reliable then others) 

 

http://michigan-weather-center.org/snowiest-places-in-the-u-s

 

This site is a local west Michigan site that I write a weekly blog on. Note the information given is not my information.

[jaster220]

Maybe I am misinterpreting what you're saying but I don't recall Roger being that bullish on snow. Snowier than average for ORD, yeah, but not an all-timer. I'd personally shy away from an elite/historic type winter as well, but I'd probably say that every single time at this point in the season. It's nothing personal about this winter but more how you need almost everything to go right to get a truly epic season. Outside of lake effect regions, I don't think we are capable of doing what a place like Boston did in 2015 where it just went nuts beyond belief in February with 65" and gave them that very high total in the end. Can't afford too much lull time.

 

I think so, at least a little bit. I know his total for Chicago wasn't at the historic level of 78-79, but in the "fashion of that season", he did say that he felt that region would be more or less the jackpot region, which I believe was the case back in 78-79.

[Tom]

@OkWx commented on the rise in the ENSO 1.2 region SST's temps and I dug deeper into the pattern and it dawned on me that this may actually may be a good thing for our Sub.  Typically, when this region warms compared to the central PAC, we see a SER signal in the longer range.  The CFSv2 is seeing this signal developing late Dec into January and the Euro Seasonal is also seeing a slight SER in January.  This type of warming in the E PAC happened 2 years ago I believe but that season we did not have the warm Blob and high lat blocking that can counter the East Coast/SER.  Big difference this year is we have the blocking which I believe will grow stronger as we head deeper into winter.  Just thought I'd comment on that as it is an important clue going forward.

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

@OkWx commented on the rise in the ENSO 1.2 region SST's temps and I dug deeper into the pattern and it dawned on me that this may actually may be a good thing for our Sub.  Typically, when this region warms compared to the central PAC, we see a SER signal in the longer range.  The CFSv2 is seeing this signal developing late Dec into January and the Euro Seasonal is also seeing a slight SER in January.  This type of warming in the E PAC happened 2 years ago I believe but that season we did not have the warm Blob and high lat blocking that can counter the East Coast/SER.  Big difference this year is we have the blocking which I believe will grow stronger as we head deeper into winter.  Just thought I'd comment on that as it is an important clue going forward.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It spiked but is actually coming back down, so we should expect less nino-like effects, and more La-nada effects for a period. 

[Niko]

Try this

https://www.weatherbell.com/late-october-winter-forecast-update

Good info! Nice work buddy.....

[Tom]

Here's Judah Cohen's Winter Outlook in video...it's rather long but has some good pointers...I will say, it really jives with the LRC pattern that has set up except for the very warm central/southern Plains.

 

https://vimeo.com/377677154

[OKwx2k4]

@OkWx commented on the rise in the ENSO 1.2 region SST's temps and I dug deeper into the pattern and it dawned on me that this may actually may be a good thing for our Sub. Typically, when this region warms compared to the central PAC, we see a SER signal in the longer range. The CFSv2 is seeing this signal developing late Dec into January and the Euro Seasonal is also seeing a slight SER in January. This type of warming in the E PAC happened 2 years ago I believe but that season we did not have the warm Blob and high lat blocking that can counter the East Coast/SER. Big difference this year is we have the blocking which I believe will grow stronger as we head deeper into winter. Just thought I'd comment on that as it is an important clue going forward.

 

 

 

 

 

If it warms and relaxes cyclically, as it is now, then, it is a WONDERFUL thing. A straight raging spike for 3-5 wks or more with no variance would be a death knell for me. So, yeah, you're very correct.

[jaster220]

Not that anyone cares at this point, but here's the latest adjusted winter outlook from WxBell

 

 

[Niko]

Not that anyone cares at this point, but here's the latest adjusted winter outlook from WxBell

 

20191127 WxBell final winter outlook-temps.png

 

20191127 WxBell final winter outlook-snowfall.png

I care!    Also, still in the jackpot zone......

[jaster220]

I care!    Also, still in the jackpot zone......

 

Thx buddy!  Not much to complain about there, with almost every poster/sub member in the 100% or better range for snowfall. That'd be quite amazing if it verifies. 

[Niko]

Thx buddy!  Not much to complain about there, with almost every poster/sub member in the 100% or better range for snowfall. That'd be quite amazing if it verifies. 

Tbh, that would be amazing, even though, Met Winter is taking its sweet ol` time to get to our latitude.

[jaster220]

Tbh, that would be amazing, if though, Met Winter is taking its sweet ol` time to get to our latitude.

 

Yeah, as of right now, it would seem that if either one of those maps was in jeopardy, the extreme cold scenario is the one.

[Madtown]

All ya need for the snow maps to verify is normal snowfall from here on out.

[jaster220]

Maybe there, but here I will need quite a bit more than my avg the rest of the way. While I'm way behind last year at this point, there's still tons of time for things to turn a corner. I just need/want Dec to show up for a change, Jan and Feb can usually take care of themselves. As a matter of fact, in the past six yrs of keeping a daily log for mby, only Feb 2017 failed to hit at least normal snowfall between the total of (12) J & F months.  

[OKwx2k4]

All signals fading to a "normal" to "slightly below normal" temps for the rest of December and to close out winter 2019-20.

 

Very cold and snowy intrusions still very on the table up north over our sub, but speaking to my area is mostly where I'm at here. Average winter. Snow, ice and severe wx all still on the table, too.

 

[Tom]

It seems to me that most of the global models are painting a much better picture for our Sub heading into the New Year and the opening month of 2020.  I remember as a kid watching movies and thinking about what the world would look like in the year "2020".  With just days away from closing out this decade and opening up a New Year, I'll get that opportunity to witness that moment "The Future is here..." 

 

There is so much to look forward to next year and during the month of January, esp if your a winter wx enthusiast!  The JMA seasonal came out last night and it's painting a very similar look the Euro & CFSv2 are suggesting.  Let's dive in...

 

First off, the MJO looks to me like it's showing a Phase 6/7 scenario which would cause concern for ridging in the East...It's 500mb pattern certainly is showing this in the maps below alongside a stout NE PAC Ridge (-EPO) and some high lat blocking.  Quite a wet pattern across the CONUS...coast-to-coast storms???

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Temps...there is a ribbon of BN across S Canada and basically near normal temps across the CONUS.  I'm not sure I buy the temp pattern.  I got this good feeling about a repeat scenario of last season whereby our Sub saw winter storms galore...but this time, the pattern is becoming beneficial to spread the wealth around.

 

 

 

[Madtown]

[Tom]

If the CPC boys are right, when Winter returns (and it will), it seems to me it will have legs yet again this year.  There are a few reasons why this season may sing a similar tune to what transpired last season.  One of the big reasons is what is about to happen in the Strat which will drive the cold back into the pattern.  Unlike last year though, the cold took a while to return as we impatiently waited up until mid/late January but when it hit, it didn't back off.  The only difference I see with this years pattern is the lack of a very strong SER, however, it will flex from time to time over the next several months this cold season.

 

All the models busted earlier this month on a major disruption of the PV, however, it is bound to happen and there are growing signs that it will in early January.  Based on the data that I'm seeing, there is a MMW event brewing across Siberia/Russia to open up January.  How will the year 2020 open?  The data is trending much colder as we welcome the New Year and it will become quite active.

 

January...

 

 

 

Precip...

 

 

 

Jan-Mar...

 

 

 

 

 

Delayed Spring???

 

 

[jaster220]

If the CPC boys are right, when Winter returns (and it will), it seems to me it will have legs yet again this year.  There are a few reasons why this season may sing a similar tune to what transpired last season.  One of the big reasons is what is about to happen in the Strat which will drive the cold back into the pattern.  Unlike last year though, the cold took a while to return as we impatiently waited up until mid/late January but when it hit, it didn't back off.  The only difference I see with this years pattern is the lack of a very strong SER, however, it will flex from time to time over the next several months this cold season.

 

All the models busted earlier this month on a major disruption of the PV, however, it is bound to happen and there are growing signs that it will in early January.  Based on the data that I'm seeing, there is a MMW event brewing across Siberia/Russia to open up January.  How will the year 2020 open?  The data is trending much colder as we welcome the New Year and it will become quite active.

 

January...

 

 

 

Precip...

 

 

 

Jan-Mar...

 

 

 

 

 

Delayed Spring???

 

 

 

Thanks Tom. Those maps keep looking really good but we (you, me, ORD--->DTW) need the cold and moisture to be timed correctly. You mentioned the ghost of last winter during which, that combo happened here only a couple times really. Would be nice to see an improvement for this region.   

[Beltrami Island]

Rex Block just of the west coast to drive cold air to the central CONUS? Just hope it wouldn't stay to dry.

[jaster220]

When November delivers this..

 

 

You can plan on a bill coming due in December! 

[OKwx2k4]

@jaster, regardless of the winter we all have, that was truly a remarkable autumn for all of us!

[jaster220]

@jaster, regardless of the winter we all have, that was truly a remarkable autumn for all of us!

 

One I'll never forget. I like getting sent home early from work due to how bad the snowstorm has gotten. Helps when the president of your firm is a GA native, but hey, I'll take it! 

[jaster220]

One of the more impressive events of last winter was the late Feb blizzard across much of the Mitt. I can't even remember when there was another bliz at that time of year. Usually NDJ are the months. Even GHD-1 was notable for being "in Feb" but that was at least barely past Jan. Interesting that GR had about 2.5 hrs of legit bliz conditions narrowly missing the official criteria. Apparently further north where snow cover was deep and more new snow could blow over the top of it, things got real bad per the quote from an Emergency Mngr (too bad they failed to say from what city). Anyways, I ran across a new link on GRR's website where they began to build a nice listing of winter event summaries and saw this recap for the first time yesterday. 

 

 

[Niko]

Its officially Winter.

[Niko]

When November delivers this..

 

20191111&12 GRR Storm Summary-1.GIF

20191111&12 GRR Storm Summary-2.GIF

 

You can plan on a bill coming due in December! 

Annnnnd now we pay the price for a warm, snowless December.

[Hawkeye]

Ryan Maue just tweeted this map.  It shows the change in the 46-day EPS from yesterday's run to today's.  

 

[Wheezer]

Could have been worse

[jaster220]

You mean to tell me that we finally get NOAA to issue a 3-month forecast map with areas of BN, and they're gonna bust? That'll be the last time we see it from them if that happens. 

[jaster220]

This map from early March shows how poorly the Mitt did against averages compared to everyone to our west. Nature evened things up a bit for the several years when we stole the show. 

 

[Madtown]

sticking to my guns....winter cancel

[BrianJK]

sticking to my guns....winter cancel

Haha, I just reread this thread starting from Nov on forward. Think I might do the same for years past.

[jaster220]

Haha, I just reread this thread starting from Nov on forward. Think I might do the same for years past.

 

  Do what? Cancel winter, or re-read the thd? 

[Madtown]

Haha, I just reread this thread starting from Nov on forward. Think I might do the same for years past.

I dont remember saying it was gonna be a good winter?

[BrianJK]

I dont remember saying it was gonna be a good winter?

No no, I know you weren’t drinking the kool-aid. It’s just surprising when you reread the last several years worth of winter outlooks and see what they say about December compared to how they actually played out. Not sure how it played out for your area, but around theses parts, we had several December’s that made a run at setting the all time snowless record. Quite the contrary to what was suggested.

[jaster220]

No no, I know you weren’t drinking the kool-aid. It’s just surprising when you reread the last several years worth of winter outlooks and see what they say about December compared to how they actually played out. Not sure how it played out for your area, but around theses parts, we had several December’s that made a run at setting the all time snowless record. Quite the contrary to what was suggested.

 

Not sure how many years back you went but I doubt anyone was calling for total futility last December. For one thing, nobody ever "calls" for the extremes, one direction or the other. Just doesn't happen. Now this year, Tom certainly did mention December was looking "iffy" or least promising. Dec 2017 had it's hiccups, but in the end delivered 186% of avg snow fall. Dec 2016 was even more generous. I'm not a fan of the bi-polarism that has become December. We need to make winter great again. Warm globe era likely argues against that happening tho.  

[Thunder98]

A very big and cold trough over the Midwest and West in fantasyland.